Trading on the Jamaica Stock Exchange US dollar market ended on Tuesday, with an 82 percent fall in the volume of stocks changing hands after a minute decline in value compared with trading on Monday, resulting in 10 securities traded, compared to eight on Monday with three rising, two declining and five ending unchanged.
Overall, 26,137 shares were traded for US$3,700 compared to 144,256 units at US$3,922 on Monday.
Trading averaged 2,614 shares at US$370 down from 18,032 units at US$490 on Monday, with the month to date averaging 15,341 shares at US$1,303 compared with 22,412 units at US$1,821 on the previous day. May ended with an average of 43,350 units for US$2,759.
The US Denominated Equities Index popped 7.14 points to 241.46.
The PE Ratio, a measure used in computing appropriate stock values, averages 8.9. The PE ratio is computed based on the last traded price of each stock divided by projected earnings forecasts done by ICInsider.com for companies with their financial year ending between November 2023 and August 2024.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows one stock ending with a bid higher than the last selling price and three with lower offers.
In trading, First Rock Real Estate USD share ended at 5 US cents after 15,226 shares were traded, Productive Business Solutions popped 1 cent in closing at US$1.86 while exchanging 10 stocks, Proven Investments dipped 0.5 of a cent to close at 16.5 US cents with investors trading 300 units, Investors exchanged 9,594 shares of Sterling Investments at 1.68 US cents. Sygnus Credit Investments popped 1.03 cents to 11.03 US cents in swapping 330 stocks, Sygnus Real Estate Finance USD share closed at 11 US cents with an exchange of 107 units and Transjamaican Highway rallied 0.05 of a cent to close at 1.25 US cents in an exchange of 364 stock units.
In the preference segment, Productive Business 9.25% preference share shed 65 cents in closing at US$12.50 after 200 shares were traded, Eppley 6% preference share ended at US$1.40 after a transfer of 1 share and JMMB Group 5.75% ended at US$1.90 in an exchange of 5 stock units.
Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.
Slim trading in JSE USD Market
Bounce for Trinidad Stock Exchange
Stocks bounced in trading ended on the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange on Tuesday, following a 79 percent increase in volume changing hands with the value jumping 122 percent over Monday’s activity, resulting in 21 securities trading compared with 17 on Monday, with seven stocks rising, eight declining and six remaining unchanged and leading to a rise in the primary market indices.
Investors exchanged 249,560 shares at $3,305,748 versus 139,700 stock units at $1,491,369 on Monday.
An average of 11,884 shares were traded at $157,417 compared with 8,218 shares at $87,728 on Monday, with trading month to date averaging 11,835 shares at $192,890 compared with 11,816 units at $206,947 on the previous day. The average trade for May closed with 23,500 for $216,502.
The Composite Index increased 11.04 points to close at 1,244.43, the All T&T Index popped 16.55 points to conclude trading at 1,901.75, the SME Index remained at 69.27 and the Cross-Listed Index rallied 0.72 points to end at 75.71.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows two stocks ending with bids higher than their last selling prices and three with lower offers.
At the close, Agostini’s popped $2.50 and ended at a 52 weeks’ high of $69 with shareholders swapping 7,801 shares, Angostura Holdings rose 95 cents to end at $23.10 with a transfer of 2,235 stocks, Ansa McAl remained at $51 as investors traded 6,320 units, Ansa Merchant Bank rose 50 cents in closing at a 52 weeks’ high of $49 after 100 stock units were traded. Calypso Macro Investment Fund lost 18 cents to $21.80 after a transfer of 124 shares, First Citizens Group gained 5 cents to close at $46.05 after exchanging 2,640 stock units, FirstCaribbean International Bank shed 1 cent and ended at $7 in switching ownership of 2,359 units. GraceKennedy fell 5 cents to $3.50 with investors transferring 15,496 stocks, Guardian Media declined 10 cents in closing at a 52 weeks’ low of $2.20 in an exchange of 1,397 shares, JMMB Group climbed 2 cents to close at $1.40 with 1,500 stock units changing hands, Massy Holdings ended at $4.98 after 66,726 stocks crossed the market. National Enterprises remained at $3.55, with 24,754 units being traded, National Flour Mills rallied 1 cent in closing at $1.51 with an exchange of 6,881 stock units, NCB Financial ended at $3, with 15,700 shares crossing the market. Prestige Holdings dropped 50 cents to end at $8 after 40,718 stocks passed through the exchange, Republic Financial advanced 21 cents to $127.71 and closed after 3,215 units were traded, Scotiabank dipped 50 cents to close at $76.50 after an exchange of 3,734 stock units. Trinidad & Tobago NG ended at $18.25 while exchanging 2,018 shares, Trinidad Cement lost 28 cents in closing at a 52 weeks’ low of $2.50 with 2,505 stock units being traded, Unilever Caribbean dipped 20 cents to end at $14.80 in an exchange of 41,115 units and West Indian Tobacco remained at $13 with investors trading 2,222 stock units.
Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.
Trading slips on the JSE USD market
Trading on the Jamaica Stock Exchange US dollar market ended on Monday, with the volume of stocks changing hands rising 29 percent but with an 85 percent drop in value compared with that on Friday and resulted in eight securities trading, compared to seven on Friday with three rising, one declining and four ending unchanged.
A total of 144,256 shares were traded for US$3,922 compared with 112,013 units at US$25,887 on Friday.
Trading averaged 18,032 shares at US$490 compared with 16,002 units at US$3,698 on Friday, with a month to date average of 22,412 shares at US$1,821 compared to 25,916 units at US$2,885 on the previous day. May ended with an average of 43,350 units for US$2,759.
The US Denominated Equities Index slipped 3.84 points to end at 234.33.
The PE Ratio, a measure used in computing appropriate stock values, averages 8.8. The PE ratio is computed based on the last traded price of each stock divided by projected earnings forecasts done by ICInsider.com for companies with their financial year ending between November 2023 and August 2024.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows two stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and one with a lower offer.
At the close, First Rock Real Estate USD share remained at 5 US cents as 3,324 shares passed through the market, Productive Business Solutions climbed 0.50 of one cent to US$1.85 in an exchange of 49 stocks, Proven Investments advanced 0.9 of a cent and ended at 17 US cents in exchanging 9,000 stocks, Sygnus Credit Investments ended at 10 US cents in switching ownership of 1,749 units and Transjamaican Highway dipped 0.2 of a cent in closing at 1.2 US cents with 130,011 shares crossing the market.
In the preference segment, Productive Business 9.25% preference share rallied 65 cents to end at US$13.15, with 15 stock units crossing the market, Eppley 6% preference share remained at US$1.40, with 4 units changing hands and JMMB Group 5.75% ended at US$1.90 in an exchange of 104 stocks.
Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.
More declines for Trinidad Exchange stocks
The Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange lost ground again on Monday, as declining stocks beat out risers by a 4 to 1 ratio, following a 36 percent fall in the volume of stocks traded with a 42 percent fall in the value compared with Friday and resulting in trading in 17 securities compared with 18 on Friday, with prices of two stocks rising, eight declining and seven remaining unchanged.
Investors traded 139,700 shares for $1,491,369, down from 218,165 stock units at $2,569,756 on Friday.
An average of 8,218 shares were exchanged at $87,728 compared with 12,120 units at $142,764 on Friday, with trading month to date averaging 11,816 shares at $206,947 compared with 13,515 units at $263,247 on the previous trading day. The average trade for May closed at 23,500 for $216,502.
The Composite Index dropped 7.28 points to 1,233.39, the All T&T Index lost 6.05 points to end trading at 1,885.20, the SME Index remained at 69.27 and the Cross-Listed Index dipped 1.20 points to close at 74.99.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows six stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and two with lower offers.
At the close, Angostura Holdings shed 95 cents to end at $22.15 after a transfer of 100 shares, Calypso Macro Investment Fund fell 1 cent to $21.98 after an exchange of 39 stock units, First Citizens Group dropped $2.99 to $46 with investors exchanging 1,400 stocks, FirstCaribbean International Bank ended at $7.01 in switching ownership of 51,270 units. GraceKennedy fell 24 cents to $3.55 with 20,263 stocks being traded, Guardian Holdings gained 5 cents to end at $20.05 after exchanging 1,564 stock units, JMMB Group dipped 2 cents in closing at $1.38 as shareholders traded 2,541 units, Massy Holdings dipped 1 cent and ended at $4.98, with 20,323 shares crossing the market. National Enterprises endned at $3.55 after an exchange of 9,033 stock units, National Flour Mills ended at $1.50 with investors transferring 9 units, NCB Financial remained at $3 with 2,949 stocks changing hands One Caribbean Media ended at $3.71 after shareholders traded 100 shares. Prestige Holdings ended at $8.50 with an exchange of 306 stocks, Republic Financial lost 40 cents in closing at a 52 weeks’ low of $127.50 as 299 stock units pass through the market. Scotiabank increased $1 to end at $77 with a transfer of 5,216 shares, Trinidad & Tobago NGL ended at $18.25, with 1,946 units crossing the market and Unilever Caribbean dipped 30 cents to $15 while exchanging 22,342 shares.
Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.
Profit returns for Caribbean Cream
Following a torrid 2022 fiscal year, with a loss before taxation of $13.7 million, Caribbean Cream delivered a much better performance in the fiscal year to February this year, with pretax profit of $41.8 million and $27 million after accounting for $14.7 million for taxes, up from a $9 million loss in 2022 in a year that finance cost almost doubled to $66 million from $34 million in 2022, from increased borrowings.
Sale revenues for the just completed year rose 20 percent to $2.5 billion from $2.1 billion in 2022. In the final quarter, revenues climbed 22.5 percent to $674 million from $553 million in 2022 and increased 17 percent over the $576 million in the November 2022 quarter. In contrast, revenues for the 2022 February quarter were 10 percent more than the $501 million generated in the November 2021 quarter. All in all, the 2023 fiscal year performance was well ahead of the year to February 2022, even as the year started with just $1.3 million in profit with cost of sales at 73.2 percent with the second quarter being slightly better with cost of sales down to 70.7 percent and profit improving to $7.2 million as both volume improvement and price adjustment to the output chipped in to help improve the bottom line.
Kremi, as the company is known, has had a checkered history with Profit meandering from 2015 to 2023. (See Chart)
Since 2020 the company has faced increased input costs that squeezed profit margin. In the latest fiscal year, cost of sales dropped to 64 percent in the final quarter compared to 69 percent for the year and 71 percent for the nine months to November. The jump in revenues in the fourth quarter over the November quarter would have helped to improve the margin, but it appears that raw material costs fell compared with the earlier months of the fiscal year. In 2022 cost of sales was 71.6 percent and 66.6 percent in 2021.
Cost of sales rose 16 percent, slower than sales in 2023, to $1.73 billion from $1.49 billion in 2022, with gross profit rising faster than revenues, a positive development with an increase of 31 percent to $593 million from $775 million in 2022. The cost of raw materials used in sales rose 16 percent to $1.17 billion, compared with a 33 percent rise in fiscal year 2022 over 2021. Milk solids, one of the primary raw materials, about 70 percent that is used in producing ice cream moved from an average of US$3,355 per ton in 2018 to US$5,067 in 2022 and is now $4,676 in 2023, down 9 percent. In 2022 the cost rose by 29 percent, these movements, coupled with exchange rate changes for the Jamaican dollar, would have pushed up the company’s production cost; also affecting cost would be a 7 percent movement in the exchange rate between the Jamaica dollar and the US dollar. If continued, falling commodity prices in 2023 will lower the cost for them and help improve profits. Also of note is that the price of crude oil is now 38 percent less than it was in 2023 at the start of June and that feeds directly into utility cost incurred in production, which was $166 million, 16 percent higher than 2022 and 19 percent more in Administration with $99 million versus $83 million in 2022.
Administrative expenses rose 17 percent to $598 million from $512 the previous year. Marketing and sales expenses increased by 18 percent to $72 million from $61 million in 2022 and depreciation came in at $100 million, marginally down from $102 million in 2022. Some $930 million is tied up in construction in progress at the end of the fiscal year and will result in the charge rising appreciably in the 2024 fiscal year when those assets are transferred to fixed assets but will reduce the actual taxation payable as capital allowances in the first year, will reduce the actual tax liability that will be payable. Finance cost jumped 91 percent to $66 million from $34.5 million in 2022, but a significant portion of the loans have interest rates capped and will not result in increases in the current period.
Gross cash flow generated $195 million from operating activities, up from just $53 million in 2022. Funds internally generated were augmented by loan inflows of $353 million and funds at the start of the year amounting to $145 million, which helped to fund additions to fixed assets of $541 million.
The total Current assets ended the year at $535 million inclusive of trade and other receivables of $157 million, cash and bank balances of $67 million, down from $146 million in 2022. Current liabilities ended at $389 million, up from $313 million and net current assets ended the period at $167 million, down from $212 million in 2022.
At the end of December, shareholders’ equity stood at $826 million, with long term borrowings at $920 million, up from $603 million in 2022 and short term at $107 million against $67 million in 2022. The increased borrowing helped to fund additions to fixed assets amounting to $542 million during the year, of which $490 million is construction in progress.
Earnings per share came out at just 7 cents for the year, with a steep PE of 45.7, but earnings for the current year are expected to jump well over that for 2023. IC Insider.com forecasts a considerable increase of 90 cents per share for the fiscal year ending February 2024, with a PE of 3.6 times the current year’s earnings based on the price of $3.20 the stock traded at on the Jamaica Stock Exchange Junior Market and a net asset of $2.18.
The company did not pay a dividend in 2022 but 6.94 cents in 2021.
The company may have faltered over the last two years, but it has shown in the past that it can recover. Additionally, it is not going away anytime soon. It will recover lost ground as they invest in its manufacturing operations to generate cost reductions, greater efficiency, and improved profit. The first quarter results due by July should show the first signs of this robustness as the company reports a significant profit improvement over the 2022 first quarter and a better than the 2023 February quarter.
What should investors do? Investors should buy the stock that is selling well below potential as investors reacted negatively to poor results reported in 2022 before the release of the 2023 results.
Kremi tops ICTOP10 Lasco Manufacturing in
Iron Rock Insurance ended the past week up 14 percent to $2.25 and Lasco Distributors climbed 11 percent to $2.77 after both jumped 34 percent and 21 percent, respectively, earlier in the week, with two new stocks entering the Junior Market ICTOP10. At the same time, the Main Market TOP10 delivered moderate up and down movements.
The Lasco Distributors price movement follows release of full year results with earnings of 38.5 cents per share, with ICInsider.com projecting earnings of 55 cents for the fiscal year ending March 2024, leaving much room for solid upside price movement in the months ahead.
Lasco Manufacturing (LasM) and Caribbean Cream (Kremi) released improved full year results over those for 2022. Importantly, ICInsider.com forecast for the 2024 fiscal year is 70 cents per share for LasM and 90 cents for Kremi, with both entering the TOP10 this week, with one at the top and one at the bottom. Iron Rock Insurance and Edufocal fell from the Junior Market TOP10 to make way for the two stocks.
The stock rising in the ICTOP10 Junior Market, apart from those mentioned in the opening paragraph, is Consolidated Bakeries, with an increase of 4 percent to $2.27. At the same time, Caribbean Assurance Brokers, iCreate and One on One dipped 4 percent to $2.40, $1.26 and $1.10 respectively.
The price of Main Market listed Caribbean Producers, popped 5 percent in closing at $10.06, Key Insurance fell 11 percent to $2.80 and 138 Student Living lost 8 percent in value to close at $5.15.
At the end of the week, the average PE for the JSE Main Market TOP10 is 5.9, well below the market average of 13.5. The Main Market TOP10 is projected to have an average of 259 percent, to May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings.
The 15 most highly valued Main Market stocks are priced at a PE of 15 to 110, with an average of 28 and 19 excluding the highest PE stocks and 18 for the top half excluding the stocks with the highest valuation.
The Junior Market Top 10 PE sits at 5.3 compared with the market at 10.5. There are 10 stocks representing 21 percent of the market, with PEs from 15 to 24, averaging 19 are well above the market’s average. The top half of the market has an average PE of 15, possibly the lowest fair value for Junior Market stocks currently. Junior Market is projected to rise by 295 percent to May 2024.
The differences between the average PE ratio of the Main and Junior Markets and the overall market valuation are important indicators of the level of likely gains for ICTOP10 stocks.
In the market generally, Investors continue to nibble away at a number of stocks and, in the process, gradually reduce the supply of several stocks that are attractively priced as the market moves toward the summer months, the start of the stock market year.
A look behind the supply chain shows an ever decreasing number of stocks on offer. The list includes Caribbean Assurance Brokers with strong buying interest between $1.88 and $2.40, but limited selling above $2.50, Caribbean Cement, Caribbean Producers (CPJ), Fontana, Dolphin Cove, Honey Bun, Main Event, Massey Holdings, Seprod, Transjamaican and Wisynco have started to look positive. Supplies of some stocks are being quietly sucked out of the market, setting the stage for a sustained rally sometime down the road. ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners. Accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market but not always. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to the end of May 2023 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate, resulting in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.