Fontana & Wisynco watch alerts

A close look at the main market shows clear bullish signs, with the market breaking out from a wedge formation and is being steered upwards by a long term upward sloping support line, that goes back to early 2016.
Unlike the rally in December that was dominated by NCB Financial, this rally is more broad based. Over the past two weeks, several company released results and seem to be stirring investors’ interest in a number of the companies.
Fontana and Wisynco were highlighted last week, as compelling stocks to watch. Demand for the two stocks drove prices higher on strong demand and increasing traded volumes, during the past week.
These two stocks remain on the watch list and IC Insider.com expects to see continued demand for them. Importantly, the supply of Wisynco’s shares is drastically reduced, since the release of the December quarterly.  There are further reports that apart from a likely big new distribution contract that being discussed the company will be distributing sugar for a factory in the western end of the island.

Radio Jamaica

Buy Rated Radio Jamaica was struggling below the 90 cents mark for a very long time, came to life during the week with the company reporting strong gains in profit in the December quarter of $168 million versus $79 million in the similar period in 2017. The stock traded several million units below 95 cents but hit $1.20 on Friday as supply below dried up. The stock may find it difficult the move higher during the coming week but is worth watching to see where it trades during the week.
A block of nearly 61 million AMG Packaging shares traded during the week and stopped the price from moving higher. Buying interest remains as many investors see prospects of continued profit and stock price.
Elite Diagnostic closed the past week at $3.10 as results released showed a big improvement over the first quarter to September of $5 million versus $1.6 million on a pretax basis. The reported profit was not good enough to excite investors looking for immediate stock price gains.  The price may well remain anchored around current levels for a while. The quarter over quarter growth in revenues points to higher revenues in the March quarter. There now appears to be a gap developing between the bids at $3.10 and sellers at $3.40. Watch to see how this develops. PanJam Investment traded as high as $82 on Friday with limited supply of the stock offered for sale. This one seems poised to move higher as just limited supply of the stocks is on offer for sale.
Demand for Fontana shares ate away at supply of the stock during the week but seems to have the $4 mark to take out before moving higher.

Section of Fontana Waterloo road branch now under construction.

The stock is still undervalued, even as it has doubled the IPO price. Investors ought to be focusing on the expansion plans and what that will do to profit in fiscal 2020.
General Accident 2018 results came out in the region of 29 cents per share but with $129 million less investments income and a big bump up in Management fee expense of 40 percent to $803 million. Importantly, net premium income rose a strong 28 percent for the full year. Selling pressure may be easing up with buying picking up.
ISP Finance reported flat profit for the year to December but revenues rose 18 percent in the last quarter over that of 2017 driving profit in the quarter 30 percent to $25 million. The results was strong enough to drive the bid above the last traded price and push selling of the stock on to the sideline. The growth in the final quarter of 2018 points to improving fortunes for the company and so could ignite demand for the stock at a higher price than the closing bid of $13.
Jamaica Stock Exchange shares hit a new high of $17.95, during the past week, with increasing interest shown in the stock. Exposed supply is currently not high, with expected continued buoyancy in the market and a big increase in new listings this year, investors seem more aggressive to buy into what should be another year of increased profit for the company. Seprod’s price moved up to $39 with increased demand for the shares continuing against the background of declining supply. The price seems poised to move even higher in the coming weeks as the stock remains attractively priced and in limited supply.

Some of Seprod”s products.

Lasco Financial came out with powerful December quarter profit that rose 95 percent to $107 million after tax but a still respectable 67 percent before tax. Nine months profit rose by a much slower 21 percent from $222 million to $268 million after tax but a slightly heathier 23 percent before tax. The December quarter has sufficient information that investors can use to determine what future prospects are for profit and that could help lift demand for the stock.
NCB Financial remains on the Watch List with strong gains in operating profit for the December quarter, but the stock is finding it hard to break through resistance at the $150 level and may need something out of the ordinary if the price is to move decidedly higher before the summer months.

TOP 15 JSE main market Stocks

TOP 15 JSE main market stocks for 2019

While Junior Market stocks seem poised to deliver better returns in 2019 than main market ones, there remain some attractive buys with great potential gains in the JSE premier market.
The average PE of the Main market for 2019 is 13 times estimated 2019 earnings, compared to nearly 16 at the end of 2018. This suggests potential for gains above 20 percent on average, for stocks in 2019. Stocks selling below the average for 2019, are poised to deliver above average growth for the year.  Added to this, is the current PE ratio at 16 times 2018 earnings that should rise further before prices fully reflect earnings for 2018, which will take place by March. Stocks with PE at 8 or lower are likely to at least double during 2019.
Seprod – PE 7.5. The company acquired new business from Facey Group in 2018 as well as taking ownership of the former Nestle’ production facility in Bog Walk. Both activities will help swell revenues and profit as cost are lowered, giving greater leverage in the local and overseas markets. The sugar operation that has been bleeding for years, is getting greater attention with a view to cutting out the large loss. It should not be too long before action is taken to stop the bleeding.  Elimination of the sugar losses will result in even more profit.
Sterling Investments PE 7. The company underperformed the overall market for most of 2018 but has room for growth with the price bouncing after the announcement of a 5 for 1 stock split. They are now raising additional capital to diversify their investment objective, which could help expand profitability and lessen reliance on movements in foreign exchange gains. Investors should not expect explosive growth from this one but with the stock undervalued there is some amount of healthy gains that can be realised.
Victoria Mutual Investments – PE 7.5. The company recorded increased profit from ongoing operations in 2018 to September but the booking of $118 million impairment on Barbados bonds negatively affected the profit for year to date. The company also reported other comprehensive income separately from regular profit but this is likely to change for the full year and could well provide a kick to the final result, for the year. The company is active in seeking areas of growth. It has also added new unit trust funds to the market. The continued buoyancy of the local stock market bodes well for increased profits from this area as well as a result on its impact on fee income from its equity linked unit trust fund.
Caribbean Cement – PE 8. Caribbean Cement has not yet delivered on its potential. The plant that was previously leased, was acquired in 2018, and is now saving nearly $2 billion per annum. Shareholders enjoyed none of those savings last year. That could change this year, as the company raised prices late in 2018 and will now be producing all of the cement they sell, thus lowering direct selling cost. For most of 2018, the company imported cement to meet a part of its demand while they were working on upgrading the plant to meet both local and export markets. With continued growth in the economy and strong expansion in the construction sector, the company should continue to enjoy increasing revenues and profit. Cement has partially refinanced some of its US dollar debt and started to pay down the US based debt as well, thus limiting FX losses.
Radio Jamaica – PE 9.5. RJR has so far not been able to deliver on the promise when the media business and that of the Gleaner, were merged. While they have cut out some cost, revenues have not grown to deliver improved results. They remain profitable and yet results have been below expectation and has dragged the stock price below 90 cents. Tightness in the local economy in the past few years and cost incurred to switch Television to digital telecast, added to the pressure on results. The biggest part of the problem is the failure to pull in more revenues. The improving economy is likely to help to improve revenues going forward as advertisers increase their marketing spend. Of note is the fact that the stock now trades below net asset value of 95 cents. Importantly, even as the company reported a loss of $133 million for the six months to September, operating cash flow generated was a positive $120 million.
Sagicor Group PE 9. The company has not delivered much in 2018 partially due to losses incurred in the write down of Barbados bonds that it holds. The company will benefit from increased revenues from the acquisition of the Scotia Group’s insurance business going forward and will also gain from investments in the local stock market as well as from the growth in the local economy and increased employment that should facilitate increased sales of life policies.
Sygnus Credit – PE 9.2. This company is relatively new and it listed in 2018. The company provides financing to viable but growing businesses by direct lending or other types of funding including factoring that will provide above average rate of return. The original concept was to deliver around 8 percent per annum to its investors, but depending on the nature of the investments they make the rate could be better. They have investments in two Portfolio Companies with profit sharing features attached. Up to September, return on invested funds was almost 11 percent. At the end of the September quarter US18 million was invested in various companies, with a similar amount available to be invested. The company incurred a loss for the September quarter due to exchange rate movement, which resulted in foreign exchange loss of US$7,000. Since then the local dollar has revalued and this will reduce the loss incurred. The stock pulled back after reporting the release of the last results and now offers investors a nice entry point for appreciation, especially with PE ratios mostly around the 15 mark. The Company intends to pay out up to 85% of the earnings generated from these investments as dividends on a quarterly basis, after the end of the first financial year.

JMMB Group

JMMB Group – PE 9.5. JMMB shares have suffered from selling by insiders from time to time that has left it undervalued. It has a long history of good performance. Revenues and profit rose in the half year to September as a number of areas performed very well. Going forward, the group has a great deal of room to expand in the Dominican Republic with a population of 11 million, compared to Jamaica with 3 million. Effective April 1, 2018, the Group adopted IFRS 9 “Financial Instruments”. Prior period amounts are in accordance with IAS 39 “Financial Instruments: Recognition and Measurement”. IFRS 9 has resulted in changes in accounting policies related to the classification, measurement and impairment of financial assets and liabilities, the company stated.
Carreras – PE 9.5. Regular increases in taxes on cigarettes have pressured demand for the product and squeezed profits for several years. There was no increase in prices in the last year but revenues grew in the half year to September while administrative cost fell. The company should earn around 80 cents per share to March this year and that should increase for the 2020 fiscal year. Growth in the economy and more importantly, the buoyancy in the construction industry will increase disposable income for smokers and thus drive increased demand for the company’s products. The stock is currently trading at just over 11 times earnings, based on 2019 earnings well below the market average of 16.  With the dividend yield around 7 percent, investors will get good value for an investment in the stock, but not big capital gains in the short term.
Proven Investments PE 9.5. Proven has been expanding with new acquisitions in 2018 and recently the purchase of 20 percent of JMMB Group shares. Access Financial Services in which it owns the largest block of shares, just concluded the acquisition of a loan company in Florida, while Proven concluded the acquisition of brokerage business in Cayman Islands and their St Lucian bank was in the process of acquiring a Latin American bank. IC insider.com expects more acquisition going forward and this should augur well for continued growth of the group.
Jamaica Broilers – PE 10. The company has been expanding by acquisitions and agronomic growth, leading to group revenues for the October quarter increasing 18 percent to $13.6 billion, over the $11.5 billion achieved in the similar period in the previous year. Gross profit for the quarter was $3 billion, a 3% increase over the previous year. Profit for the quarter was not as positive as the gains in revenues but that will change going forward as the company improves on profit margins.
Wisynco Group – PE 9.5. Shares are selling at a discount to the average of the market. At the same time, profit for 2019 should rise well ahead of the 2018 results as the company fully overcome the added cost associated with the damage and dislocation caused by fire that destroyed their warehouse in 2016. Profit growth should increase with the addition of the distribution of sugar and rum as well as improvement from the operating from one site as opposed to two in 2018. Growth in the local economy will be beneficial to sales growth and profit as well.
Berger Paints – PE 10.5. The company has been undergoing changes since Ansa McAl took control in 2017.  The Penta brand of paints is added to the product line, along with the strongly in demand Berger brand. Penta paints were previously imported, by a third party, with production locally, cost will be reduced and allow for greater profit margin. Other changes within the company will lead to increased sales at lower cost and greater profits going forward.
Jamaica Stock Exchange – PE 10.5. The JSE enjoyed its best year in trading ever, in 2018 with the value traded, almost doubling and bettering the highest level enjoyed in 2004. The company enjoyed more listings on the market last year and they expect a 20 percent increase in 2019. News listing not only bring added listing fee income but increased trustee fees as well. Additionally, new listings open up the market for new investors some of whom will start to be more frequent stock market traders, thus increasing fee income as further.
NCB Financial – PE 10.5. The group’s shares are not likely to be the top performer in 2019 but is expected to put in a decent return and could continue to increase in value for a number of years. NCB is currently on a strong growth path with operating profit increasing strongly with the December 2018 results rising 40 percent before onetime income. The planned acquisition of more shares in Guardian Holdings will only enhance the bright prospects ahead for the Group.

Barita up 593% top 2018 JSE stock

Barita climbs to a new closing high of $50 on Friday to gain 593% in 2018..

Stocks on the Jamaica Stock Exchange main market ending 2018 with a credible gain of 31.7 percent but brokerage house Barita Investments surged a by a huge 593 percent to be the markets best performing stock in 2018.  
Barita Investments gain mostly came after Cornerstone Investment Holdings officially sealed the deal to take over the company and laterally, after announcing a rights issue to shareholders at an exercise price of $15.50. The stock closed the year at $52. But there is a lot more going on with this company as the new majority owners take a more aggressive approach to capture more business locally and within the wider Caribbean.
Four stocks end 2018 with gains of more than 100 percent contributed to the year’s performance but the year’s movement fell below that of 2017, when the index rose 50.7 percent. The next best performer could only deliver a 211 percent rise in contrast to the stunning gains by Barita. Salada Foods ended the year with a jump in price to $35 on strong gains in profit, to capture the number 2 best performing spot rising by 211 percent for the year, followed by Palace Amusement with gains of 159 percent, the third year in a row that it is occupying the top 10 list. Kingston Wharves grew 135 percent to be one of 4 stocks to reappear in the top 10 for two consecutive years. Jamaica Broilers gained 67 percent. Pulse Investments reappeared in the Top 10 with a rise of 66 percent and heavy weight, PanJam Investment put in a strong showing of 65 percent, while Supreme Ventures chipped in with 57 percent, Mayberry Investments rose 52 percent and NCB Financial with 50 percent to retain one of the Top 10 spots for the second year in a row.
The worst performing stocks included Ciboney down 71 percent due mainly to the sale of property it previously owned with most of the proceeds distributed as a dividend thus reducing the value of its assets to a few million dollars. 138 Student Living was next with a fall of 42 percent with Portland JSX ending with a loss for the year of 25 percent following on from Kingston Properties with 22 percent and Sygnus Credit Investments with 20 percent from it 2018 IPO price. Both Ciboney and Carreras that are in the top 10 worst performing stocks in 2018 are coming from the top 10 in 2017.

JSE enjoyed modest gains on Friday

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Trading on the Jamaica Stock Exchange resulted in more stocks rising than falling leading to a moderate pick up in the market indices as trading levels declined sharply.
At the close of market activity, the prices of 11 securities rose, 9 declined, while 10 remained unchanged, leading the All Jamaica Composite Index to rise 832.12 points to close at 397,739.58 and the JSE Index gained 758.16 points to end at 362,385.78. The closing indices are different than the ones released by the stock exchange that is much lower than the close on Thursday.
Trading closed with 30 active securities in the main and US dollar markets, on Friday compared to 29 on Thursday. Trading closed with 2,082,014 units valued at $42,778,375 compared with 53,515,060 units valued $119,025,805 changing hands, on Thursday.
Main market trading closed with Carreras leading with 440,416 units trading, or 21 percent of the day’s volume, Scotia Group with 392,361 units and 19 percent of volume traded and Radio Jamaica with 259,000 units with 12.4 percent of the day’s volume.
IC bid-offer Indicator|At the end of trading, the Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 7 stocks ending with bids higher than the last selling prices and 4 closing with lower offers.
Trading resulted in an average of 77,112 units valued at over $1,584,384, in contrast to 1,911,252 shares valued at $4,250,922 on Thursday. The average volume and value for the month to date amounts to 1,010,856 shares, valued $2,941,894. October closed, with an average of 290,851 shares, valued $5,213,901, for each security traded.
In the main market activity, Caribbean Cement gained up $1.79 trading 1,055 shares to close at $43, Grace Kennedy rose $2 and ended trading with 27,576 shares at $57, Jamaica Broilers traded 19,491 stock units, at $29.71, after falling 29 cents, Jamaica Producers jumped $3.49 and finished trading 7,040 units at $28, Jamaica Stock Exchange dropped $1.50 to close at $10, in exchanging 207,374 shares, JMMB Group gained 48 cents to $32.50, trading 17,573 shares, Kingston Wharves lost 95 cents to close at $75 with 2,792 stock units trading, Mayberry Jamaica Equities traded 25,925 units but lost $1 to close at $10.50, Scotia Group gained $1.46 to $52.49, trading 392,361 units.
Trading in the US dollar market ended with, JMMB Group 5.75 percent preference share rising 3 cents exchanging 1,700 shares at $2.06, Proven Investments traded 4,360 units changing hands at 20 US cents and Sygnus Credit Investments US dollar based ordinary share traded 11,820 units at 11 US cents. The JSE USD Equities Index rose 0.09 points at 163.39.

Review of 2018 stock market forecast

Palace hits a new high of $1,500 to be top performer in 2018 so far.

“ Assessment of the market, suggests that 2018 could be a grand year, with overall price gains likely to be in excess of 40 percent”, a quote from IC Insider.com in February, this year.
“Based on projected earnings for 2018, the average PE ratio suggests that main market stocks should grow by 26 percent. Falling interest rates could add another 20 percent to gains during the year, bringing overall gains in excess of 40 percent.”
“Technical readings of the market have the main market heading initially to around 390,000 points or 23 percent ahead of the December close, for the all Jamaica Index, before resistance sets in and then moving much higher, later on’ the IC Insider.com forecast for 2018 stated.
With almost three more months to go, before the year ends, the main market is broken through the 390,000 points mark to be up 31.7 percent for the year to date, there seems no stopping it for now.
The report in February stated that the main market was caught in a wedge formation, trading just below the upper end of channel that can be traced to late 2015. The wedge could hold the market in consolidation mode for a short time, a month or two, before breaking out, most likely to the upside.
IC Insider.com projects that many of the main market heavy weights will find it tough to repeat the strong gains they enjoyed in 2017, if that is the case, their impact on the market index is likely to be less than for 2017. Another factor that could make a repeat of 2017 tough, is the movement of interest rates. Last year, Treasury bill rates fell 29 percent from 6.56 percent to 4.83 percent, that level of decline, is unlikely to happen in 2018, even as some of the decline in the latter part of 2017 is yet to be fully reflected in the prices of stocks to date and should positively affect prices in 2018. IC Insider.com is forecasting rates on 182 days Treasury bill  hitting 3 percent by the end of the 2018 first quarter. Treasury bill rates in 2018 at 1.7 percent, have fallen more sharply than in 2017.
The original piece stated that “there are a number of other factors at play that are set to impact the market. Increasing employment is taking place with the highest number of persons employed in the country’s history. Attendant with that is the sharp fall in unemployment from more than 16.3 percent in 2013, to just over 10 percent in 2017. The annual net employment is growing around 30,000 persons per year and that could rise as the economy gains steam. This will mean more spending and increased tax collection for government. Alpart resumption of Alumina production is a big positive for the overall economy, for increased government revenues and more demand for local goods and services, some of which are provided by listed companies. The tourism sector is enjoying strong growth, apart from increasing foreign exchange intake for the country, will have direct impact on Jamaica Producers and Sagicor X Fund. Jamaica seems to be going through a construction boom with several new buildings under construction, Caribbean Cement and Berger Paints should benefit considerably from such developments.”
“More listings on the stock market will result in increased fee income for JSE and brokerage houses, from increased trading volumes.”
The TOP 10 stocks include a few surprises while there are others that sit just outside the top stocks that investors may still want to keep a keen eye on. Investors should be looking beyond 2018 as medium term gains beyond 2018 could be strong for stocks that will benefit from current developments, long term.
The TOP 10 selection is selling well below the average PE of the Main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange at just over 6.3 versus nearly 12 at the end of 2017.

Barita last traded on the JSE as high as $20 on Friday.

Barita Investments moved more into fee based income and that is working well for them, with sharp growth, while net interest income stagnates. The prospects for continued strong growth in fee income continues with more investors seeking better returns than in the fixed interest market. The company should see a change in ownership soon and that could see a more aggressive approach to management that could optimize returns from exiting business and newer lines. Unrealized gains on investment ought to be factored into its earnings in valuing the stocks and that would boost its value considerably, the market is not paying attention.
Berger Paints is set to be a big winner with increasing sales coming from a buoyant construction sector resulting in increased profit and what IC Insider.com expects to be a healthy dose of dividend payments. It could become the next Carreras from a dividend yield standpoint but with growing profits. The company will benefit from lowering of overhead cost which was evident in 2017.
Jamaica Broilers continues to grow organically and from new business being acquired. Growth will continue as the Haitian market deliver greater returns form a growing market while the poultry demand in Jamaica continues to grow.
Caribbean Cement will benefit from lower operating cost, increased sales and a planned cut in financing of the lease which is said will cut hundreds of millions of dollars out of it cost that could come close to $2 per share per annum.
Palace Amusement Company, currently enjoying sell out cinemas with block buster hit, is one of those unusual choices. It enjoys minimal trading but it could surprise on the upside if all goes well. Growth in the economy and increased employment will help to boost patronage going forward and will aid in profit growth as well.
JMMB Group put out outstanding Q3 results with a 39 percent increase in profit and strong gains in revenues, auguring well for 2019 outcome.
The growth potential remains strong and investors in the stock will reap rich rewards down the road. Just one stock that requires patience. By the way fees and commission income jumped an impressive 71 percent to $512 million in the quarter and 53 percent in the nine months, over the similar period in 2016 and should continue to do so going forward.
Radio Jamaica continues to disappoint with below expected revenues and profit. It could return to favour but needs to generate more income from advertising. This is one to accumulate for a payoff down the road.
The other three stocks, Sterling Investments, Grace Kennedy and Sagicor Group are undervalued and could deliver some decent returns to patient investors.
Below the TOP 10 are strong candidates to deliver decent returns this year and beyond, the list includes NCB Financial that is on a strong growth trajectory and recently listed Wisynco Group that should generate earnings around $1.10 for the 2019 fiscal year that starts in July.

4 new additions to IC TOP 10

The bullishness continued on Jamaica Stock Market during the past week with the main market reaching new record level on Thursday and the Junior Market closing at the highest level since November 3, last year.
Several companies released results during the week, some showed strong gains and others were in line with the prior year’s period or slightly below and some were in line with expectations, investors reacted accordingly. The chronic shortage of many of the stocks continue to put upward pressure on prices. Following the release of results some companies profit forecast were adjusted. This resulted in Radio Jamaica and Palace Amusement falling from the TOP 10. Palace forecast for 2019 fiscal year is now placed at $100 per share up from earnings of $96 for 2018 including gain on sale of property. Key Insurance reported another quarter of losses and full year’s earnings were revised downwards putting it outside the top listing. Indies Pharma, the other Junior Market stock to jump ship, rose to $2.36 after listing earlier in the week and is up 57 percent from the IPO price of $1.50.
Paramount Trading fell to $2.10 on low volume to jump into the list and Lasco Distributors fell to $3.85 climbed in as well. Paramount is now in a new fiscal year and is expected to record much improved results over the outturn for the year to May as the company enjoys the benefits of increased revenues and profit from the two new ventures started earlier this year in chlorine, bleach and manufacturing of lubricants. Lasco reported improved results of the year to March with the first quarter to June this year recording improvement over 2017 an indication for increased sales and profit in 2019.
Existing TOP 10 stock, Caribbean Cement continues to undergo wild swings in prices and traded as high as $56 during the past week but closed the week at $47.50, on Friday as supply has virtually dried up, not surprising with the company cutting finance cost and reports of several projects slated to come on stream later this year. Berger Paints moved down from $21 to $18 during the past week as direct cost rose sharply by 46 percent in the June quarter to negate a 35 percent rise in revenues but profit after tax rose 13 percent over 2017.
Salada Foods was recently in the Top 10 but moved out based on increased price, reenters with a fall in price to $17 and benefits from improved nine months’ results suggesting earnings of $2 per share. Management expressed concerns as to the impact that the imposition of a cess on coffee could have on sales. Sygnus Credit Investment is a new entrance to the main market and enters as the price fell sharply during the week to $10, but closed with the bid at $10.50.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks averages 7.9 compared to an average PE for the overall market of 12.5, based on 2018 estimated earnings and the main market PE stands at 8 for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 13, a good indicator of the level of undervaluation of these stocks, currently. Work done by IC Insider.com suggest that the PE ratio is likely to end around 16 or 17 times earnings by year end, as investors continue to gradually upgrade the multiple they are prepared to pay for stocks, which would lift prices sharply over the next several months from current levels. In addition, the latest Treasury bill offer, saw rates dropping to 1.7 percent on the 91 days instrument and 1.88 percent on the 182 days instrument. These rates suggest more funds will be going into stocks as liquidity remains high.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 37 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 39 percent to the market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.

Medical Disposables out AMG in TOP 10

The main market of Jamaica Stock Market indices chalked up more records last and closed the week at another record high on Friday and the Junior Market closed at a 9 months’ high as the markets continue the usual summer bounce.
A number of positive results and chronic shortage of many of the stocks are helping in putting upward pressure on prices resulting in three changes to the IC TOP 10 at the end of the week.
Medical Disposables rose to $6.40 at the end of the week and was the sole stock moving out of the TOP 10 and AMG Packaging returned to the TOP 10. Caribbean Cement traded as high as $50 on Friday as supply has virtually dried up, not surprising with the company cutting finance cost and reports of several projects slated to come on stream later this year. Berger Paints also moved higher to $21 on Friday and remains scarce. Iron Rock jumped to a new high of $4.07 on Friday as the company shows promise of making a profit sooner than later.
The coming days will see a flood of quarterly results be released and could impact the prices of stocks.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks averages 7.9 compared to an average PE for the overall market of 12, based on 2018 estimated earnings and the main market PE stands at 8.2 for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 13, a good indicator of the level of undervaluation of these stocks. Work done by IC Insider.com suggest that the PE ratio is likely to end around 16 times earnings by year as investors continue to gradually upgrade the multiple they are prepared to pay for stocks, which would lift prices sharply over the next several months from current levels.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 34 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 39 percent to the market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.

Medical Disposables back in IC TOP 10

Medical Disposables back in IC TOP 10

The main market of Jamaica Stock Exchange ended at a record close on Friday and the Junior Market closed at a 9 months’ high as the markets keep moving higher resulting changes to the IC TOP 10.
At the close on Friday, Proven Investments ended at 19 US cents and fell out of the top list and is replaced by Victoria Mutual Investments. Jetcon Corporation and Paramount Trading dropped out of the top flight, to be replaced by Fosrich Group and Medical Disposables. IC insider.com lowered profit forecast for Paramount with the company showing only a small profit of less than a million dollars in the fourth quarter compared to nearly $11 million in 2017 after gross profit rose 29 percent or $28 million. Jetcon squeezed out by price changes, elsewhere Medical Disposables rose to $5.80 but made it back in the list with strong profit out turn for the first quarter to June and an upgrade of earnings for the full year, of 65 cents per share from 60 cents.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks averages 7.4 compared to an average PE for the overall market of 12, based on 2018 estimated earnings and the main market PE stands at 8 for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 13, a good indicator of the level of undervaluation of these stocks.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 38 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 40 percent to the market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.

Stocks to Watch this week

Caribbean Cream’s Kremi product

There are clear signs that the usual summer rally has started on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, with the main market hitting new highs on all five trading days during the past week, and ending at record closing highs on all, except on Friday.
The main market entered record territory, minutes after opening on Friday with the All Jamaican Composite Index climbing 1,082.40 points to an intraday record of 340,315.50 and the JSE Index rising 986.19 points to a record 310,065.85. The market is being steered higher by an upward sloping support line as well the 45 and 125 day moving averages, lending support just below the index for the main market and the Junior Market is being steered by an upward rising long term support line.
The market saw many developments that confirm that a bull market is in place. Mayberry Jamaican Equities initial public offer, opened and closed on Monday, having been oversubscribed and Indies Pharma public offer opened on Thursday and closed on Friday but Stanley Motta remains opened after more than a week since the offer opened.
Elsewhere in the secondary market, Jamaica Broilers traded briefly at a record high of $33, others trading at 52 weeks’ high in the main market are Kingston Wharves trading at $52.03, PanJam Investment at $58.99 and Pulse Investments trading up to $3.50, but 138 Student Living, having fallen to a 52 weeks’ low of $4.40 the previous week fell even lower in this past week to $3.85,
Former TOP 10 Junior Market listing, Derrimon Trading ordinary share, hit at an all-time high of $23 during the week. Current TOP 10 listing, CAC2000 hit a new record high of $10 as well as C2W Music climbed to $1.60, while recently listed Everything Fresh traded at an all-time low of $1.95 since listing in June. US dollar market listings, Margaritaville and Proven Investments both traded at a 52 weeks’ lows during the week as investors seem to lose interest in the US dollar listed shares.
The main market is exhibiting strong bullish signals while the Junior Market seems more subdued apparently waiting on the release of results.

Stationery & Office Supplies new book making operation.

Against this back drop there could be some interesting developments in in the market in the coming days. Based on demand and supply of stocks and trading activities last week the stocks worth watching this week include, Caribbean Cream that jumped sharply on Friday after the company reported improve first quarter results, NCB Financial pulled back in the past week but may be constrained by the $100 mark until the group reports third quarter results by month end. PanJam Investment could move higher again, as there continues to be buying but there is very limited supply of the stock on offer. Radio Jamaica that came for increased buying recently seems to be seeing supplies coming to market at $1.20 or higher and could get more attention as the weeks roll on. Others worth watching include Caribbean Cement, Berger Paints with little selling, Grace Kennedy for which there is also limited supply. In the Junior market, some demand exists for Derrimon Trading, with a resolution to be voted on at the upcoming AGM to split each share into 10 units, but the price may be stuck around the $20-23 range with the PE more than 20 times 2018 earnings compared to the market average of 11.4. Stationery and Office Supplies continues to trade around the $8 mark, with limited supply on offer, the stock is worth watching but may require second quarter results to kick the price to another level. With the directors stating that they have discussed the possibility of a stock split in the past, the stock can be expected to be one to see a split probably by the next AGM, investors should be stock piling this one with the price being undervalued. Jamaican Teas pulled back in the past week from $5.50 to $5 this week, but with limited stocks being offered for sale, is worth watching. Wisynco seems to have found support just above $9 and is one to watch over the next few weeks as the release of full year result nears, the Jamaican Stock Exchange is another to be watched along with JMMB Group and Seprod.

Record run for IC TOP stocks

Kingsley Cooper Chairman of Pulse that gained 67% during the past week.

Pulse Investments, in the main market TOP 10, up to the week starting June 25, jumped 67 percent this past week, to close at $3. Current listings, Caribbean Cement traded at $45 and Grace Kennedy at $56 both at 52 weeks’ highs during the week.
Former listing, Derrimon Trading ordinary share traded at an all-time high of $20.50 during the week while, the preference share traded at $2.45 for at a new high. The week closed out with 138 Student Living, falling to a 52 weeks’ low of $4.40 but C2W Music climbed to a 52 weeks’ high of $1.30 as the main market moved within just 300 points of the record high reached on June 13, while the Junior Market traded at the highest level during the week, since December last year.
There is just one change to the TOP 10 listings at the end of the week, with Stationery and Office Supplies that just slipped off the Junior Market list at the end of the previous week returning after Caribbean Producers that dethroned it in the previous week was squeezed it out, as Carib Producers rose to $5.50 from $5.10 at the end of the previous week.
With the average PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks at 6.2 compared to an average PE for the overall market of 11, based on 2018 estimated earnings and the main market PE at 7.9 for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 13, suggest that the rest of the year should deliver better returns than the first half. A look back on the markets shows that they made noticeable rise in August last year, a pattern that goes back several years and could well do so again.
The sharp reduction in Bank of Jamaica policy rate to an unprecedented 2 percent and Treasury bill interest rates to record lows of 2.5 percent, is set to push stocks values much higher unless profits for most of the listed companies decline. The shortage of supply of many listings continues and is set to result in a big rise in prices going forward before supplies will be able to satisfy what is likely to be a rising demand.
Last week prospectuses for Stanley Motta and Mayberry Jamaican Equities were published and this week Indies Pharma is released. The first two are not priced to bounce based on the underlying nature of these companies. Stanley Motta is a real estate play that will provide income that is better than most fixed interest securities with moderate capital appreciation going forward, while Mayberry Jamaican Equities is a closed end mutual fund, growth is going to depend of appreciation in the investments held or to be acquired. Indies Pharma, with IC Insider.com preliminary earnings estimate for 2018 of 16 cents per share, could get a bounce sometime after listing and could reach $2.40. The stock sits in the mid-range of IC Insider.com’s ranking of Junior Market stocks with a PE of 10 just a bit less than the average of 11 for the market but most IPOs have traded around 15 times the current year’s earnings.
IC Insider.com’s TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 45 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 39 percent to the market.
 Stocks to Watch The stocks to watch this week include, NCB Financial. PanJam Investment could move higher again, as there continues to be buying but there is very limited supply of the stock on offer. Radio Jamaica that came for increased buying recently seems to be seeing supplies coming to market at $1.20 or higher and could get more attention with the network broadcasting the popular world cup matches as adverting revenues should climb from the coverage. Others worth watching include Caribbean Cement, Berger Paints with little selling, Grace Kennedy for which there is also limited supply and Pulse Investments. In the Junior market, Demand for Derrimon Trading should continue with a resolution to be voted on at the upcoming AGM to split each share into 10 units. Supplies for Stationery and Office continue to trade around the $8 mark with limited supply, the stock could move higher in coming days or weeks. Jamaican Teas pulled back in the past week from $5.50 to $5 this week, but with limited stocks being offered for sale, is worth watching.