Watch Cement and Sagicor

Image courtesy of suphakit73/FreeDigitalPhotos.net


The past week saw stocks prices moving up and down with the announced initial Public offering of Wigton Windfarm, a pattern is likely to continue for a while.
The release of 2019 first quarter results could change the pattern for some stocks, with a few due for release before the end of April. Last week there was increased buying interest in Caribbean Cement, NCB Financial Group and Sagicor Group on Friday with the release of full year results for 2018. Investors should keep an eye on these, Wisynco, RJR, Seprod that remain attractive buys.
The Junior Market is being shaken up following the release of the prospectus for Wigton, as such there are no clear security to watch in this market during the week.

Profit rises 29% at PanJam

Stephen Facey Chairman & Paul Hanworth Chief Operating Officer

Trading income at PanJam Investment grew a strong 35 percent to $3.26 billion for 2019 while operating expenses rose just 7 percent to $1.7 billion leading to a 66.6 percent increase in operating profit of $1.55 billion, up from $938 million in 2017.
The major contributor to the increase in operating income was a 151 percent increase in investment income to $1 billion, from $423 million in 2017.
Share of results of associated companies contributed $4.7 billion to profit, compared with $3.9 billion in 2017. After taxation of $311 million and finance cost of $624 million, profit ended at $5.3 billion for an increase of 29 percent. Earnings per share rose to $5.06 for the year.
The group saw growth in profit from Sagicor Group and Downing Street Fund 11 and V but suffered a loss at Chukka Caribbean with revenues falling from $4 billion to $3 billion. New Castle saw a reduction in profit even with an increase in revenues while Caribe Hospitality saw profit rising from $242 million to $271 million of which their share is 32 percent.
PanJam holds equity investments worth $6.8 billion up from $2.4 billion at the end of 2017. The value of investment properties moved from $7.9 billion in 2017 to $8.4 billion and investments in associated companies total $26.3 billion. Total assets at the end of the year was $45.9 billion up from $39.4 billion in 2017. The group borrowed $10.6 billion at the end of 2018, up from $7.5 billion in 2017 and has equity of $34 billion.
PanJam is in the process of upgrading the Oceana building in downtown Kingston to a combination of hotel and residential units slated for sale. There also plans for a business hotel in Montego Freeport in Montego Bay.
The group stocks trades at $81 on the Jamaica Stock Exchange at a PE of 12.5 times 2019 estimated earnings of $6.50 and a net book value of $32. PanJam is a stock Investors should consider holding in the long term portfolio to benefit from growth to flow from expansion in the investment field and real estate holdings.

Cement still top stock to watch

Caribbean Cement traded at a new high of $73.90 recently.


Jamaican stocks continue to consolidate as they await some major price moving events to change direction. During the past week, Caribbean Cement make a gallant move to break out but selling pushed the price back to close at $60.61, after posting a high of $73.90. On Friday, it traded at $66 but sellers pushed it back lower by the close. 
Buying interest remains good for Carib Cement while selling seems a bit muted. With first quarter results due by the last week in April, investors could be positioning to get ahead of those results, expected to be well ahead of the 2018 profit. The stock could close higher during the week based on demand and supply.
Earlier in last week, NCB Financial looked as if it was going to move back to the $150 range with no offers below $150 for an extended period of trading. That never lasted as sellers entered, keeping the price in the $145 range. Other main market stocks to watch include, Barita Investments, Berger Paints, Jamaica Producers, Radio Jamaica and Wisynco Group that has some selling around the $12 level and my take some more time to move higher.
While there are stocks that are pregnant with possibility to move, the sideways movement of the market, seems set to continue this coming week. The situation will be made worse, with the pending Wigton Windfarm IPO, that should be coming the market this week, and will suck up approximately $6 billion, at around 50 cents per share.

Wigton IPO with propectus expected in a day or two could pressure existing stock prices.

The Junior Market is currently, supported by two major technical indicators, indicating a rising market ahead. One is a triple bottom that it is bouncing off and the other a triangle formation, both indicate a big breakout. The last time the market had a triple bottom was between March and July last year and the market gained more than 500 points after.
Junior Market stocks to watch this week and beyond include, Caribbean Cream with full year results due towards the end of April that could help the stock. Caribbean Producers supported by technical indicator suggesting a higher price down the road. General Accident currently at a PE of 15 times 2018 earnings but well below likely 2019 earnings. Investors continue to demand Elite Diagnostic stock at $3.20 or lower with sellers mostly wanting close to $3.50. Honey Bun is showing all the signs of moving higher. Fontana remains fluid at $4 level. Express Catering that will benefit from the double-digit upsurge in Tourist arrivals so far in 2019. Lasco Manufacturing was in the news with expansion of the storage facilities to accommodate increased production, the stock gained last week and could record further gains this coming week, regardless it one worth watch for longer term gains.

How the east was won?

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Annmarie Vaz winner of the East Portland seat.

Anne Marie Vaz increased her party’s support by a stunning 58 percent, over the JLP’s haul in the 2016 General Election to win the East Portland by-election on Thursday with just 11 votes less than 10,000.
At the same time, Damion Crawford only pulled out 5 percent more votes than was polled for the PNP, in 2016. The story gets increasing bad for the PNP and it is not just in this election. The writing was on the wall for years but poor candidature, by the JLP lent the view to many onlookers, that East Portland was safe PNP territory. The 2007, results with the PNP winning by less than 800 votes, should have sent a clear warning to them that things were changing rapidly.
In this latest election, the number of new voters on the list, grew by 5.6 percent, but Crawford’s increase of 4.8 percent was less than the rise in registered voters. Looked at differently, he picked up just 354 votes more than in the 2011 elections or only 3.8 percent more. On a net basis, he garnered only approximately 25 percent of new voters, while Vaz got 75 percent. This is consistent with a pattern seen island wide since 1993 and is one that is not likely to change, anytime soon.
The Labour party was able to get out their 8,000 voters of 2011 and add 24 percent more voters to it, in addition to commandeering the vast majority of new voters, the vote tally at the end of the preliminary count suggests.
The results on the surface is a major about turn for the seat. Closer examination of the numbers for a longer period tells a clear tale. The huge 2019 increase is due to a below performance for the JLP in the 2016 elections, when the votes by the party sank by a hefty 22 percent and  well against the national trend. The trend since the 1993 elections, suggests that the natural growth in party support should have seen them polling over 9,700 votes, just below the numbers she got in the latest polls.
The data also points out that the trend is indicating that the JLP should have polled around 2,000 more votes than they did, this time around.  Those voters are there in their corner based on the growth in support, reflected in the average gains in votes cast in prior elections. This bit of information is also reflected in public opinion voting survey data.

Watch Junior Market for break higher

Junior Market poised to breakout.

Jamaican stocks are in for an interesting period with Junior Market stocks down nearly 5 percent for the year to date, lagging their main market stocks counterparts that are up 2.2 percent for 2019, but technical indicators now point to a big rally for the Junior Market.
The Junior Market is currently, supported by two major technical indicators, indicating a rising market ahead. One is a triple bottom that it is bouncing off and the other a wedge formation, both indicate a big breakout. The last time the market had a triple bottom was between March and July last year and the market gained more than 500 points.
The Jamaica Stock Exchange main market may be consolidating, but it seems to be making another effort to challenge the record high of 433,307.22 reached by the All Jamaica Composite Index in November last year. With the market closing on Friday at 426,180.60 points, it will require some meaningful price gains to close the more than 7,000 points gap.

Carib Cement traded at $58 on Friday.

For the current week, which stock could contribute to closing of the gap? Buying interest remains good for Carib Cement that moved up by $2 by the close of the week to $58. There is some selling at the last traded price but demand should take this out soon. Radio Jamaica is in demand again with a big increase in the December quarter’s profit that spell positives for the 2020 fiscal year’s results.
Wisynco came in for some selling pressure last week by the close on Friday, the stock ended at $11.95. Going forward the stock is a strong buy with increasing business and improving efficiency in operations and with credible reports that they are in talks with other local producers to distribute some popular local brands. Supreme Ventures continues to make new highs and is worth watching. The price is high more up even higher during the week but supply seems inadequate to meet demand, but an investment in the stock now may only warrant those looking for long-term returns.

NCB Financial traded at $145.05 on the JSE on Friday.

More buying came in for NCB Financial with it closing the week marginally higher at $145.05. The stock may still take some time to break higher but with second quarter results due by end of April increase demand could well develop ahead of the results.
Junior Market stocks to watch this week include, the overhang of Cargo Handlers stock was taken out last week at $11.06 and seem set to pave the way for a bounce in the price, but the stock is a bit overvalued relative to the overall market. Caribbean Cream that closed at $5.55 but traded up to $6.60 in the previous week. Full year results are due towards the end of April and that could help the stock. Caribbean Producers came into buying last week, with a move higher going forward, supported by technical indicator. Sellers of General Accident shares continues to be low, but buyers are trying to get stocks no higher than $4.50 currently at a PE of 15 times 2018 earnings and well below likely 2019 earnings. Investors in the stock at the start of 2018 got a dividend that exceeded 5 percent. If the same were to happen in 2019, the stock would end up at $6 by the end of this year. Investors continue to demand Elite Diagnostic stock at $3.20 or lower with sellers mostly wanting close to $3.50. Trading higher may not occur until closer to the release of nine months results due by mid-May. Honey Bun is showing all the signs of moving higher and traded

Honey Bun traded higher last week.

at $4.24 this past week, up from $3.83 at the end of the previous week. The bid for the stock is now at $4.15. Fontana closed the past week with a slight uptick to end at $4.05, buying continues to be good. With strong potential for growth to flow from expansion of stores now on the way, the stock is to be watched for the inevitable breakout. Express Catering has been enjoying decent buying interest. It is bound to be a big winner from the double digit upsurge in Tourist arrivals so far in 2019. Lasco Manufacturing was in the news with expansion of the storage facilities to accommodate increased production, the stock gained last week and could record further gains this coming week, regardless it one worth watch for longer term gains.

Carib Cement tops stocks to Watch

Carib Cement plant in Kingston – 2019 should be a big year for the stock.

Carib Cement could be the top stock to watch this week, with quite some supply taken out of the market last week, on the way to a record close on Friday.
Stocks on the Jamaica Stock Exchange have been consolidating, with little new information to stimulate investors to be either aggressively buying or selling stocks. The market indices have been going up and down for most of the year to date.
A series of significant developments are taking place locally, that investors should be paying keen attention to as they may have coded messages for what is in store for some for the rest of the year.
The strong double growth in stopover tourist arrivals to March has strong implication for earnings of three companies. Express Catering is one company to benefit directly as departing passengers numbers rise resulting in increased patronage of their restaurants. Dolphin Cove that came in for increased selling recently, is yet another that stands to benefit directly as more tourist arrivals will likely lead to more patronage of the attraction. Caribbean Producers and Everything Fresh, major suppliers to the tourist industry, will be selling more goods to the hotel sector.
Reduced transfer tax, stamp duties, reduced mortgage rates and increase in the maximum sum the NHT can lend will all feed into increased demand for development properties and lead to increased demand for cement and paints amongst other inputs into construction.

BOJ interest rate & cash reserves cut will help push demand in the economy.

The fall in interest rates led by Bank of Jamaica and increased liquidity that has flowed from the reduction in the level of cash reserves banks have to keep at BOJ, will lead to increased demand for loans and that will be positive for banks.
The exchange rate for the Jamaican dollar has swung from $138 to the US dollar to $125 currently. Such swings will result in big gains or losses for companies with large assets or liabilities in held in foreign currencies. Investors have to decide how to read the effects of such swings on profits and by extension the pricing of stocks.
Jamaica Public Service switch to the new LNG power supply as well as the solar plant to be added to the network this year, will reduce imports of petroleum and demand for US dollars and will result in the lowering of electricity cost to users. The change will also increase productivity of businesses as energy cost declines.
Other stocks to watch include this week include, Caribbean Cream that shot up to $6.60 on Friday with a sudden burst of buying. Sellers of General Accident shares have fallen, with just 4 now posting sell orders at the close on Friday. Buyers are trying to buy Elite Diagnostic stock at $3.20 or lower with sellers mostly wanting close to $3.50. Trading higher may not occur until closer to the release of nine months results due by mid May. Honey Bun is showing all the signs of moving higher. The bid for the stock closed at $3.98 versus the last traded price of $3.83. Fontana seems stuck around $4 but with strong potential for growth, it must be watched for the inevitable break out. Express Catering has been enjoying decent buying interest. It is bound to be a big winner from the upsurge in Tourist arrivals so far in 2019. Wisynco came in for some selling pressure last week even as reports surfaced that they are in talk with yet another local producer to distribute popular brand on top of a major local brand, this is in addition to talks they have been in to distribute a major local brand with big international foot prints. Supreme Ventures continues to make new highs and is worth watching. The price is high and may only warrant long term investing. A lot of the selling of NCB Financial seems to have ended with the market taking the remainder out last week. The stock may still take some time to break higher.

 

No explosion for Jamaican stocks

Wisynco still one to watch.

Most company results are now in for 2018, a few are now due for periods ending in January and February. Not much is expected from results due shortly, that will make a major impact on the overall market.
A number of stocks that attracted increased buying interest in recent days that are worth watching this week. Wisynco Group traded during last week at $12 but slipped to $11.50 on Friday as nearly 6.4 million units crossed the exchange, but supply continues to be low.
Fontana continues to trade in healthy volumes at $4 but supply is getting limited. Seprod continues to come in for demand with the price rising in the week to close at $44. PanJam Investment continues to flirt with record highs, but is held in check by the late reporting of financials. Radio Jamaica is fluctuating in price but with increase local economic activity investors should be looking ahead for this one. General Accident has been trading around the $4.50 level for weeks with increased interest shown in the stock since it posted increased profit for 2018. Selling seems to be coming mainly from one source.
Scotia Group reported results for the first quarter but with lower profit in the quarter compared to 2018, but they reported healthy growth in loans an important indicator for improved profit going forward. This is one to watch for longer term. Caribbean Cement continues to fluctuate having posted strong 2018 results. With prospects for 2019 looking great, investors will never know when the break out will occur, the same applies partially to NCB Financial that currently have selling overwhelming buying. Honey Bun is displaying signs as if a break out is not far off with sellers mostly in the high $4 level and buyers under $4.

Market Watch still on Scotia

Scotia Group January 2019 first quarter results due this week.

The main and Junior markets of the Jamaica Stock Exchange pulled back in the holiday shortened week as investors continue to digest and react to some mixed results for 2018.
Scotia Group did not released this past week as was done in 2018. The 2019 result is expected this week, this is one that is to be watched keenly and investors would be smart to keep an eye on the most critical signal that it will send for increased profits for this year. It must show meaningful  growth in the loan portfolio, to start pumping up profit. Caribbean Cement closed at $51.02 and should move higher with limited supply on offer and an analysis of the audited 2018 results suggesting that cost should decline sharply in some areas and revenues rise in the current year. IC Insider.com again revised earnings, this time to to $7 for the year. Last year, cement import cost more than $1 billion, that cost will not recur this year, they will also benefit from a full year of the removal of the expensive lease cost resulting full year’s saving from the $2 billion annual savings, resulting from owning the kilns rather than leasing. Radio Jamaica climbed to $1.15 late last week but there is not much selling at these levels.
Jamaica Stock Exchange pulled back during the week to $14.80 and seems poised to slip some more before settling down, ahead of the 2019 first quarter results that is expected to show a big increase in profit if the data of trading values are anything to go for 2019 to date. Grace Kennedy reported improved results with earnings per share of $5, helped by a big increase in investment income and foreign exchange should be priced higher than the $60.80 it last traded at.

Buying of Fontana was strong on Friday.


Buying came in for Fontana last week pushing the price the price to $4 on Friday and could move higher during the coming week. Wisynco continues to trade around the current price just below $12 and seems poised to continue to move side wards for a while. Watch Elite Diagnostic that has been steady around $3.20 but with good buying interest at the current price level but sellers are reluctant to come off the $3.40 offer price.
Buying for General Accident continues to trade around $4.50 level with no clear signs when it will the break out to a higher price level as there have been selling around these levels and that may well continue for a while.
Lasco Financial remains stuck around $4.60 price level with some selling taking place at $4.60, but buying is not strong enough to move the price in the short term. Medical Disposables bounced last week but the price may bounce around for some time in the medium term. Caribean Cream seems poised to move higher with a gap that has developed between buying and selling interest. Express Catering this one could see huge benefits from the big double digit increase in tourist arrival this year so far, with January up 11.3 percent islandwide. Stationery and Office Supplies dropped to $7 from more than $8 but there are signs of a bounce. Barita Investments announced an interim dividend of 82 cents per share, this news could well lift demand for the stock.

Market Watch on Scotia

The main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange moved within less than 5,000 points of the record close in November last year as investors pushed the prices of some stocks higher during the past week.
Based on the date the first quarter results for Scotia Group was released in 2018, the 2019 results should be released on Thursday but so far the company has not posted the date of dividend consideration  that is normally the date of announcing the results. Caribbean Cement closed at $55 and should move higher with limited supply on offer and an analysis of the audited 2018n results suggesting that cost should decline and revenues rise in the current year. IC Insider.com raised earnings to $6 for the year with the expensive $1 billion cement import last year not recurring this year and the benefit of a full year of removal of lease cost with added saving this year from the $2 billion annual savings from resulting from owning the kilns rather than leasing.  Keep on watching this one for a break out in price.
Radio Jamaica pulled back to $1 late last week but there is buying at those levels and above.
The Junior Market is consolidating with a slight negative bias, even as this market seems far more undervalued than the main market, the release of quarterly profit results is not helping this market currently as investors wait to see what 2019 results will look like.
Last week, a number of results were released but they showed that investors may have pushed prices to their limit already. Jamaica Stock Exchange report big increase in profit for 2018 of $413 million versus $221 million in 2017 with earnings per share of 59 cents and thus pushing the PE ratio to a rich 30.  Berger Paints profits were flat but the company had a blowout final quarter with revenues jumping 155 percent from the poor 2017 quarter and profits of $130 million versus just $30 million in 2017. Grace Kennedy reported improved results with earnings per share of $5, helped

Grace new HQ close to the end of construction in downtown Kingston

by a big increase in investment income and foreign exchange. Jamaica Producers earnings grew 23 percent to 73 cents per share and resulting in one of the higher valued stocks on the market. Mayberry Investments reported a loss of $6million after tax for the year with a big increase in credit loss and investment impairment provisions. Sagicor Group and PanJam Investment full year’s results are delayed.
Fontana’s and Wisynco continues to trade around their current prices just below $4 and $12 respectively and seem poised to continue to move side wards for a while.
Elite Diagnostic moved up to $3.20 last week with good demand at that level continues to trade around $3.10 with a gap developing between the bids at $3.10 and sellers at $3.40. Will buyers move higher or will sellers come down where the majority of buyers are?  Watch to see how this develops.
Buying for General Accident continues to trade around $4.50 level with no clear signs when it will the break out to a higher price level.
Lasco Financial remains stuck around $4.60 price level with some selling taking place at $4.60, but buying is not strong enough to move the price in the short term.  Medical Disposables bounced last week but the price may bounce around for some time in the medium term.

Cement & RJR on watch alert

Carib Cement could earn $5.30 in 2019.

The action on the Jamaica Stock Exchange is focused on the main market currently as it continues to exhibit clear bullish signs, that propelled by a recent wedge formation and is also being steered upwards by a long term upward sloping support line, that goes
back to early 2016.

The main market is just 9,625.14 points away from the peak
reached of 433,307.22 points reached on 29-Nov-last on the All Jamaica Index. The Junior Market is consolidating with
a slight negative bias, even as this market seems far more undervalued than the main market.
This week investors will see a series of releases with some expected to move the prices of some of the companies. The stocks in this
category to watch keenly are Jamaica Stock Exchange that should report a doubling in profit for the 2018. Berger Paints, Grace Kennedy, Jamaica Producers, Mayberry Investments that should show the full impact of the new accounting standard that will book all investments gains or losses directly to regular profit and loss, Sagicor Group, PanJam Investment. Release of full year’s results for Caribbean Cement last week, provided fuel that drove the price up to $51.50. Supply of the stock is low, with profit prospects for 2019 looking good.
Last weeks’ release of Fontana’s half year results, were mixed, with slightly higher profit for the six months but lower profit for the December quarter, the latter from modest sales increase, halted the advance of the price of the stock. The stock is likely to trade around the $4 level for a while. Investors ought to be focusing on the expansion plans and what that will do to profit in fiscal 2020. Wisynco continues to trade around the $12 mark but could break out at any time demand existing to buy just below $12 and supply drastically reduced compared to the period before the company released six months results.
Demand remains high for Buy Rated Radio Jamaica but supply has virtually dried up and so the stage may be set for higher prices ahead. The price moved up to $1.40 during last week but pulled back afterwards to trade back at $1 on Friday before heading back to close at $1.25.
Elite Diagnostic continues to trade around $3.10 with a gap developing between the bids at $3.10 and sellers at $3.40. Will buyers move higher or will sellers come down where the majority of buyers are?  Watch to see how this develops.
Buying for General Accident continues between $4 and $4.25, when will the break out takes place is unknown, but the valuation suggest that it could be sooner than later as the company is expected to build on the 2018 results of 29 cents per share in 2019.
The price of Lasco Financial rose during the past week but the price could inch higher this week but investors may not be ready push it much higher in the short term
Medical Disposables bid at the close on Friday was $5.50 with offer at $6.49, a wide gap that will close at some time. The company’s expansion into consumer products offers scope for a faster growth in profit going forward and that swill help the stock in the latter half of 2018. The latest results show, it is going take sometime for the expected growth to really take hold.