Scotia & Grace out of IC Top 10

The Jamaican stock market saw quite a bit of volatility during the past week resulting from some sharp price movement of some stocks.
The pullback could well be that the market will soon be entering the period when institutional investors are likely to enter the market to reposition their portfolio ahead of the start of the new years and could result in a usual Santa Claus rally starting around the middle of the month.
In the end Lasco Financial came under selling pressure and close the week at $4.15 to reenter the TOP 10 list of the Junior Market and displaced Jamaican Teas TOP 10 last week. In the main market TOP 10 two changes took place with Sagicor Group having fallen to $41 and JMMB Group trading at $34 replacing Scotia Group that reported poor fourth quarter results and declining in price from the $60 region of the previous week to close at $54.05 while Grace Kennedy moved up in price and the earnings per share has been adjusted to $4.80 from $5.30 the combination of which pushed them from the TOP list.  
The main market closed the week with the overall PE remains at 15.6, the PE of the Junior market remains at 15.9. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks average 8.8 and the main market PE is now 9.9. The top Junior market stocks are selling at a discount of 13 percent to those of the main market stocks even as the overall average PE for both markets are almost equal. This is an indication that there may be more gains to be had from these Junior Market stocks than those in the main market.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 45 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings. The main market stocks trade at a discount of 39 percent to the overall market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.

Scotia & Stanley Motta now in IC Top 10

Two changes took place in the main market TOP 10 and one in the Junior Market as market activity pushed out some stocks from the list this past week.
Palace Amusement and Barita Investments had big price gains during the week and exited the main market top list while Honey Bun reported full year profit of 18 cents per share and dropped out of the top tier stocks but it still showed strong signs of better days ahead as it starts the new fiscal year with increased volume sales.

New Entrants this week are, Stanley Motta and Scotia Group for the main market and Jamaican Teas for the Junior Market. Barita Investments jumped to a record $28 on Friday as investors continue to bid up the stock with talk on the road of positive developments surrounding the company. This publication expects good gains from the company’s investment portfolio and the performance of the stock market should also result in growth in the equity-based unit trust and therefo re boost fee income. In addition, word out is that they have acquired an investment portfolio that will add to revenues. At the current price, a stock split also seems assured for 2019.
During the week news broke that Scotia Group had entered into an agreement to sell their insurance arm to Sagicor Financial, the news helped to drive prices of Scotia Group, Sagicor Group and PanJam Investment up and created excitement in the market.
The main market closed the week with the overall PE remains at 15.7, the PE of the Junior market is at 15.9. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks average 8.8 and the main market PE is now 9.5.

The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 45 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings. The main market stocks trade at a discount of 39 percent to the overall market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.

4 new entrants in IC Top 10

Seprod shares now trades at $32 each.

There are three changes to the TOP 10 main market list and one Junior Market stock. Increased prices during the week, pushed out Access Financial, Salada Foods, Stanley Motta and Scotia Group.
Medical Disposables returns to the TOP 10 Junior Market list with the price at $6.20, down from $7.50 the previous week, as it pushed out Access that rose to $52 during last week. Berger Paints and Seprod moved up modestly in price but that was not sufficient to prevent them from returning to the TOP, with other stocks rising in price during the week. Palace Amusement also returned to the TOP 10 main market list.
For the nine months to September, Seprod generated $15.50 billion in revenues, an increase of $3.36 billion or 28 percent over the similar period in 2017. Net profit for the period was $970 million, an increase of $387 million or 66 percent over 2017. Earnings per share came out at $2.03 with the third quarter rising to 85 cents from 38 cents in 2017. For the full year earnings could hit $3 per share. That should put the stock back in the $40 range before too long.
Berger Paints profit for the nine months to September was below expectations, with $9 million profit in the third quarter versus $54 million in 2017 and $43 million for the nine months to September, down sharply from $143 million in 2017. The company now enters the busiest period of the year when the bulk of income and profits are made. Last year company was closed for sales for several days for stock taking in December, resulting in lost sales and profit. The company should not suffer the same fate this year as the new owners would be aware of the problem and work at preventing same. That should result in better sales and profit than in the 2017 final quarter. In the final quarter of 2016 pretax profit was $233 million compared to just $67 million for the similar period in 2017, when the disruptions occurred.
The main market closed the week with the overall PE remains at 15.3, the PE of the Junior market is at 15.5.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks average 9 and the main market PE is now 9.3.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 42 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings. The main market stocks trade at a discount of 39 percent to the overall market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.

NCB still stock to watch

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NCB had a good 2018 fiscal year with strong profit gains.

NCB Financial is in the news since it released record full year results and announced a dividend of 70 cents per share at the end of the first week in November, and was followed with the announcement that the way is cleared for them to go after another 22 percent of Trinidad and Tobago based Guardian Holdings.
In the past week news came that there were big insider trades in the stock. There is increased buying interest in the stock. Where the price will be in the short term is anyone’s  guess.

The main market All Jamaica Composite index is a shade away from 400,000 points at the close of the week, is recovering from recent low of 383,883.07 points on November 7, having fallen 8 percent from the record high of 418,450.70 on October 12. The market looks poised to move higher as the main sell off might be over, but there are few stocks that seems likely to gain this week.
Technical chart shows NCB Financial heading to $155 but it traded at new high of $138 during the past week which is not very far from the target of potential resistance. Whether it goes higher during the coming days is anyone’s guess but it is worth watching with all the positive news its getting as well as increased buying.

Some of Seprod’s products.

 Seprod pulled back from the record high of $62 a few weeks ago, to sit at $30.10, now that the public offer of shares has closed with the issue oversubscribed. The stock could move higher in the days or weeks ahead. Selling from those who bought in the public offer may keep the price anchored around current price for a while before the selling subsides.

Investors should be keeping their eyes on Scotia Group. Last year they released full year results on December 7 and can be expected to release this year’s, on the 6th, investors could well anticipate them and drive the stock ahead of the release. Currently, there are no Junior Market stock that seems set to move much at this time.

NCB is stock to watch

NCB Financial, released record full year results and announced an interim dividend of 70 cents per share at the end of the first week in November to be followed this past week, with the announcement that the way is cleared for them to go after another 22 percent of Trinidad and Tobago based Guardian Holdings on Friday with the NCB stock closing at a record high of $137.99.
The stock could make more gains in the week if demands picks up. Technical chart shows NCB Financial heading to $155, an area of potential resistance. The added Guardian ownership will add to earnings per share for the NCB group in the short term but longer-term synergies exits to take advantage of that should add even more to the bottom-line.
With just about all companies releasing quarterly results there is not much firepower that was released to move prices one way or the other, price movements will be more determined by perceived levels of under or overvaluation of individual stocks.
Investors should be keeping their eyes on Seprod that has seen increased supply with the recent public share issue having been allocated, the stock is considered a good buy at current trading of $30 or less. The company also posted results showing strong gains for the nine months. Stationery and Office Supplies that reported third quarter results that started to benefit from profit from the new book manufacturing business and continued strong sales growth. The stock price may well have factored in the good news but supply for sale seems limited.

Access & Iron Rock back into IC Top 10

Thee are no change to the TOP 10 main market list. The Junior Market has two changes with Iron Rock Insurance and Access Financial returning to the TOP 10, while Stationery and Office Supplies (SOS) and Dolphin Cove moved out.
IC Insider.com lowered the earnings per share for the two that moved out, based on the most recent release of interim results. In addition, SOS moved up in price following the release of nine months results.
Last week’s big new the entry, Scotia Group moved from $50 to close at $55.95 and now awaits the full year results which be out soon, for more direction. Based on IC Insider.com forecast Scotia is set to earn around $4.60 for the 2018 year to October with the PE at just 11 times earnings.
Earnings for General Accident have been adjusted down to 40 cents per share with the latest results now out, but it still holds on to the TOP 10.
The main market closed the week with the overall PE remains at 15.3, the PE of the Junior market is at 15.6 from the prior week.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks average 9.4 and the main market PE is now 9.7.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 40 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings. The main market stocks trade at a discount of 37 percent to the overall market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.

Stocks to Watch This week

NCB Financial Constant Spring Road.

Last week’s stock to watch, former IC Top 10 listing, NCB Financial, released record full year results and announced an interim dividend of 70 cents per share with investors welcoming the news by driving the stock to a record intraday high of $135.
The stock closed the week at $133 with good volume passing through the market. Demand is building for NCB Financial between $125 and $131, with offers at $133, $135 and then at $138. The stock could make more gains in the week if demands picks up. Technical chart shows NCB Financial heading to $155, an area of potential resistance, that means that the current price is not very far from the short-term target.
This coming week, several companies will report results for the third quarter. Some of them could result in stock price movements. Other stocks to watch this week are Stationery and Office Supplies that should report third quarter results that should benefit from profit from the new book manufacturing business as well as from contract that was being worked on from the second quarter and slated for completion in the third quarter. Seprod is another to watch, now that the allocation of the 92 million shares that were recently offered to the public should be known on Monday. Third quarter results will be pasted during the week but when that is combined with the likelihood that many investors will end up getting only a small amount of the shares they applied for, it will be anyone guess what impact both could have on the price in the secondary market.
Following the release of full years’ results with an increase of 84 percent to $374 million and a 315 percent increase in the last quarter to $193 million at Barita Investments, investors have been buying the stock in a second wave of demand, its one to be watched going forward. The Jamaica Stock Exchange has been enjoying increasing trading in the second half of the year and this is expected to provide a big boost in profit for the quarter and year to date, the stock should benefit in the coming week from this.

Scotia Group eases into IC Top 10

Scotia Group could see strong growth in 2019 profit.

The big news this week is the entry of Scotia Group to the main market TOP 10 with a fall in the price to $50 at the close of the week. Based on IC Insider.com forecast, Scotia is set to earn around $4.60 for the 2018 year to October with the PE at just 11 times earnings.
Scotia replaced Berger Paints that was merely squeezed out to sit just outside the TOP 10 at the number 11 spot. Top 10 list movements were modest for the past week, following the previous week of volatility. In the Junior Market, Honey Bun sneaked into the TOP 10 by easing out Jamaican Teas in the process.
Scotia Group, reported flat profits for the nine months from normal ongoing operations. Gains from sales of Credi Scotia and exceptional foreign exchange gains in the July quarter push profit up well above that of 2017. Importantly, the best indicator going forward for increased profitability, is growth in loans. During the July quarter loans grew a strong 3.7 percent between April which works out at an attractive 15 percent per year that should equate to 25-30 percent profit growth in 2019 if the trend continues.
The main market closed the week with the overall PE slipping to 15.3 from 15.6 from the previous week, the PE of the Junior market remained unchanged at 5.5 from the prior week.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks average 9.3 and the main market PE is now 9.7.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 40 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings. The main market stocks trade at a discount of 37 percent to the overall market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.

Just one change in IC Top 10

Changes in IC Insider.com Top 10 list were modest for the past week which followed a previous week of volatility.
tTech moved back in price to $6 from $5 and moved out of the Junior Market TOP stocks to be replaced by Caribbean Producers that fell to $6 from $6.80 at the end of the previous week. These were the only movement in and out of the TOP 10.
Investors should keep an eye open for former Top stock, NCB Financial that should be releasing full year results and announcing final dividend for 2018, on Thursday
The main market closed the week with the overall PE slipping to 15.6 from 15.4 from the previous week, the PE of the Junior market moved up to 15.4 from 15.4 at the close of the prior week.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks average 9.2 and the main market PE is now 9.9.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 41 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings. The main market stocks trade at a discount of 37 percent to the overall market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.
There will be no Market Watch report for this week.

Shake up in IC Insider Top 10

Volatility was the order for the Jamaican stock market for the past week as the market indices bounced around as declining stocks were plentiful as the Junior Market ended with three changes and the main market two.
The Junior Market lost Access Financial that closed the week at $49 from $45.50 to start the week. Iron Rock Insurance that climbed to $4.82 from $4.50 and Lasco Manufacturing that inched up to $3.60 from $3 exited as well. Coming into the Junior Market TOP 10 are Elite Diagnostic, Dolphin Cove and Lasco Distributors.
Caribbean Cement reported third quarter results with lower profit for the nine months than for 2017 but foreign exchange losses was the main factor. The exchange rate has now reversed and that should turnaround the negative impact by the end of the year, nevertheless IC insider.com downgraded full year earnings to $3.53 per share, resulting in the stock dropping out of the main market TOP 10 along with JMMB Group that rose back to $34 from $32. The moves allowed Barita Investments that fell to $18 and Salada Foods that slipped to $21.50 to re-enter the top list.
The main market closed the week with the overall PE slipping to 15.4 from 16 from the previous week, the PE of the Junior market moved up to 15.4 from 16.4 at the close of the prior week.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks average 9.1 and the main market PE is now 9.6.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 41 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings. The main market stocks trade at a discount of 37 percent to the overall market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.
There will be no Market Watch report this week.