Good news push TOP 10 stocks

There were no new entrants this past week, to the TOP 10 list of stocks on the Jamaican Stock Exchange, but there was some good news with the acquisition by Stationery and Office Supplies of a book making business.
The acquisition is set to add to profit in year one, and investors responded by driving the stock to a new high. The stock that was facing some challenge to get bids around the $5.50 level, the stock traded at in the past few weeks, jumped to $6 on the same day the announcement was made. With annual sales estimated around $130 million that could rise with greater focus on the operations and more capital available to support it, IC Insder.com has up graded the earnings to 90 cents for this year. The company is one of a number of Junior Market listings expected to post positive gains in the 2018 first quart over that of 2017.
The other good news for the market was a further fall in Treasury bill rates and another month of slightly negative inflation for March with the first quarter inflation also being negative. While the main market hit two new record highs during the week. While the JSE main market is caught up in a wedge formation and waiting for a big break out which could happen any time, the Junior Market that was in a downward drift from late 2017 now seems to have support from the 200 day and 120 day moving averages with the short term moving average now above both longer term ones. The market is being steered by two support lines with one going back to 2010 and another going back to early 2014.
Investors pressured recently listed Elite Diagnostic during the week as they reacted negatively to the December quarter results with lower profit that the previous year’s results. Investors seemed to have responded the Berger Paints bullish reading in the annual report as they bought the stock in increasing volumes during the week, leaving the price at $19. The Managing Director had reported that “the outlook for 2018 and beyond is extremely positive. The Berger brand remains strong and continues to dominate the local market with strong brand equity and a reputation for quality. With GDP projected to grow by at least 1.5% in 2018, construction activity and the demand for coatings is expected to remain relatively strong for the next two to three years. Plans are already being implemented to expand the company’s local distribution and product range as well as to improve our level of customer service and responsiveness. In 2018, there will also be greater emphasis on building out exports by targeting new markets in Central America and the Greater CARICOM region.”
Palace Amusement continues to enjoy expanded interest from investors with the continued success of the movie Black Panther. After more than two months of showing it still has two showings per day in all three cinemas, but the attraction for the stock is much more than this movie.
Strong buying came in for Barita Investments at $9.50 during the week. JMMB Group gained more ground, as the block out period for insiders to trade in the stock closes and the stock moved up to $28.32, resistance is just over $31 an area investors should be on the lookout for in the short run.
At the close of Friday, the average PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks ended at 6 compared to an average PE for the overall main market of 10 based on 2018 estimated earnings. The main market PE remains at 7 for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 12.7.
IC Insider.com’s TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 40 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 42 percent to the market.

JSE trading in record territory

Kingston Wharves jumped to a record $50 in trading 2,600 shares on Friday morning on the main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange and helped to push the All Jamaica Index to an all-time record.
At 11.22 am, the JSE All Jamaican Composite Index climbed 3,135.84 points to a to be in intraday record high territory of 328,106.42 and the JSE Index was up 2,850.36 points to 298,942.03 another record level. Jamaica Producers traded 1.85 million units and rose to $16.
The Junior Market was more subdued and traded with a rise of just 3.52 points rise to 2,904.67.

SOS writing book manufacturing starts May

Stationary and Office Supplies – Montego Bay offices.

Stationery and Office Supplies (SOS) purchase of equipment used to manufacture various types of writing books as well as the brand name SEEK.
“This purchase will allow SOS to enter the manufacturing industry in Jamaica starting with books and a plan to continue to manufacture other stationery products in the future”, SOS states.
Machinery purchased includes the following: Ruling machines, Guillotines, Gluing Machines, Stapling Machines and Book Presses.
The total value of the purchase is $60 million and is being financed through a bond with Jamaica National amounting to $80 million at an interest rate of 8 percent, and a duration for repayment of 7 years. The company expects that the total investment including machinery, raw materials and renovations will exceed $80 million. The Company said with this expansion, SOS initially be employing an additional 25 persons with production expected to start during the first week of May 2018. Prior to the acquisition a compliment of 40 persons were employed with a mixture of full time and part timers.  Revenues expected in the first twelve months is estimated at $130 million but could rise beyond this, as the business maintains most of the customers for books and SOS leverage their existing customers base and others for  more business. According to Allan McDaniel, Deputy Managing Director & Director of Warehousing and Logistics, the previous owner operated for about six months per year, but SOS will be able to operate full time and at less cost. The operation will be housed in the adjoining building they acquired last year and effectively fills out the space with their expanded inventories occupying about half. Profit margin is attractive and will almost ensure that the company will profit from it, this year, with growth estimated by them to likely be in the 30 percent region coming from both local and export sales. The new operation could deliver around $40 million to profit in 2018 and around $70 million in 2019, IC Insider.com estimates.  Speaking about SOS operations, McDaniel would only say they are happy with the first quarter, that was helped by an increased inventory, now around $170 million compared to $117 million in March last year, just ahead of the public share offer. McDaniel said that while some of the fellow businesspersons are talking about a weak first quarter, SOS expects to report continued growth.

The company’s stock ended at a record close of $6 on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange on Tuesday gaining 200 percent since it was listed in August last year.

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Standoff for TOP 10 stocks

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Berger Paints annual report had some good news for investors to digest.

The up and down nature of the markets this past week left most stocks fairly stable resulting in no new entrant to the TOP 10 list of stocks on the Jamaican Stock Exchange.
The past week got greeted by a series of company results that were not inspiring with most reporting lower profits for the first quarter this year. On a positive note, most of the results were affected by increased cost resulting from expansion ahead of full flow of new income from the expanded facilities.
Companies affected include recently listed Elite Diagnostic, Paramount Trading and Knutsford Express. Berger Paints released their annual report that was filled with some good talk of going after market share, new product lines to be added and upgrading of equipment to increase efficiency.
“The outlook for 2018 and beyond is extremely positive. The Berger brand remains strong and continues to dominate the local market with strong brand equity and a reputation for quality. With GDP projected to grow by at least 1.5% in 2018, construction activity and the demand for coatings is expected to remain relatively strong for the next two to three years. Plans are already being implemented to expand the company’s local distribution and product range as well as to improve our level of customer service and responsiveness. In 2018, there will also be greater emphasis on building out exports by targeting new markets in Central America and the Greater CARICOM region,” the Managing Director reported.
For Palace Amusement with the bid at $781 at the close of the week down to $750 the movie Black Panther continues to pull in the crowd after two months of showing and still has two showings per day in all three cinemas, the same as shows that opened during the past week.
Barita Investments rose to close the week at $9.50 as investors sucked out most of the supply under $10. Key Insurance fell to $3 as the company reported that two directors sold shares during the week, while JMMB Group gained more ground, as the block out period for insiders to trade in the stock, comes to a close, until after mid May.
At the close of Friday, the average PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks ended at 6.2 compared to an average PE for the overall main market is 10 based on 2018 estimated earnings. The main market PE remains at 6.5 for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 12.3.
IC Insider.com’s TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 39 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 47 percent to the market.

Kremi in tTech out of TOP 10 stocks

 

Caribbean Cream outlet in Kingston.

Caribbean Cream jumped into the Junior Market TOP 10 replacing tTech that reentered last week but enjoyed a bounce in price to be edged out for this week.
There was no new entrant to the main market list, even as that market recorded three days of record close during the shortened week. Market activity in the main market is pointing to a big break out for stock prices while the Junior Market is flexing to rise having hit a one year low in early December last year.
The most notable change was the $250 fall in the price of Palace Amusement down to $750 from $1,000 last week even as the big money making movie Black Panther continues to draw large crowds after nearly two months of showing and seems set to ensure that revenues and profit for the year to June is the highest by far in the company’s history.
Berger Paints made gains and Barita Investments slipped in price and swapped the top two positions by the end of the week. In the Junior Market, Jamaican Teas moved up to $5.30 from $4.75 at the end of the prior week but still sits in at number 4 on the list.
Caribbean Cream recorded strong revenues gain in the year to February but enjoyed lower profit up to November as input cost rose negated the revenues rise. A major part of the input cost well sharply in price since peaking in 2017 and should help restore gross profit margin going forward. This is one to be watched going forward along with Radio Jamaica where reports are that advertising picked up nicely for the March quarter, from a slow December quarter and may be pointing to improvement for 2018 onwards, with increasing economic activity taking place, leading to increased sales and profits for many of the advertisers.
At the close of Friday, the average PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks ended at 6.2 compared to an average PE for the overall main market is 10 based on 2018 estimated earnings. The main market PE is 6.5 for the top stocks compared to a market average of 12.
IC Insider.com’s TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 38 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 47 percent to the market.

The huge stock market blast is coming soon

Bulls may be lurching to pounce on Jamaican stocks.

The main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange hit three new record closing highs this past week and is showing signs of climbing higher, much higher in fact.
That is a development that the general public is unaware of and smart investors cant take advantage of to make big gains in the months and probably years ahead.
The market has never had all the stars as lined up as they are now. Low Interest rates, the lowest on record in Jamaica, low inflation rate, a fluid foreign currency market. Liquid Jamaican dollars, of which the Governor of the country’s central bank Bryan Wynter, puts at $50 billion within the Banking sector. But it get even better. According the Wynter, interest rates are likely to go down some more as the high liquidity situation dictates it. The Jamaican dollar has been trading within a band of J$125 to 130 to the US dollar, a situation Wynter sees as likely to be the norm for sometime to come. Wynter who was speaking at special briefing on Friday, indicated that Jamaicans had better start getting used to this new development as there is enough foreign currency available in the system. A development which he things the new foreign exchange auction B-Fxitt, that the central bank manages has helped to foster with much more transparency in the market aided by market intelligence by both buyers and sellers as well as the central bank. But the new B-Fxitt is not the only factor at play. Not only that, according to the governor even as the bank cut the compulsory take form dealers by 10 percentage points, BOJ has not suffered lower intake as a result of increased flows, some of which Wynter attributes to the selling of US dollars by locals to go into more profitable form of local investments. Government’s tight fiscal discipline has gone a long way to creating and environment of stability within the economy and among the business sector.
Unbeknown to many, is the increased spending by government in March, well above what was originally planned. For investors this means more money in the hands of consumers, more sales and profit for listed companies, that now seems to be showing up in the coffers of corporate Jamaica.
So where is the stock market in all of this? The junior market is up 8 percent year to date, but main market stocks have just crawled a mere 3 percent, the latter wont being performing so poorly much longer. This short term chart shows two channels that the market is trading within. The market is trading closer to the upper resistance line shown in red. The lower blue line has been steering the market slightly side wards with an upward bias. A very important feature, which is not shown in the attached chart, is an extremely bullish formation shown on a longer term chart. That chart shows the market now caught up in a wedge formation with the top being around 335,000 points using the all Jamaica Composite index. With the recent market moves, it appears that the wedge is going to give way and herald a huge rise upwards in the market and that in going to happen within a few weeks, probably after first quarter results are released starting in late April.

KLE profit rise from ongoing operation

KLE Group reports profit for 2017.

Profit at KLE Group fell 95 percent for 2017 to $9 million from $162 million in 2016 but the 2016 result was boosted by a one off gain from sale of shares in a subsidiary, amounting to $164 million.
Without the one gain profit would have increased sharply from just under $2 million in 2016. Earnings per share ended at 6 cents. The company actually suffered a loss in the order of $12 million in the December quarter. Sale revenues that rose 10 percent for the year, to $215.4 million from $196 million in 2016.
Gross profit margin remained at 68 percent in both years while gross profit rose by 9 percent over 2016. Other income closed the year at $17 million, remaining constant with 2016 excluding one off gains.
Other operating and administrative expenses rose just 6 percent to $152.5 million while Finance cost declined to $2.4 million from $2.76 million in 2016.
Importantly, gross cash flow brought in $22 million but growth in receivables and reduction in payables reduced the net cash for the year and investments activities left cash at the $7 million level.
At the end of December, shareholders’ equity stood at $140 million with borrowings at just $14 million. Net current assets ended the period $64 million and current liabilities at $57 million.
The stock traded at $2.50 on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange with a PE ratio of 12.5 times 2018 IC Insider.com forecasted earnings of 20 cents.

tTech is back Carib Producers exits TOP 10

tTech is a new entrant to the Junior Market TOP 10 stocks and replaces Caribbean Producers that has been in the TOP 10 for several months.
Caribbean Producers closed at a 52 weeks high of $5 at the end of last week and fell out of the TOP 10. PanJam Investment price moved to $43 and just held on in the main market TOP 10. The price of Palace Amusement fell during the week to end at $1,000 and moved up on the top ten list as a result. Caribbean Cement price dropped sharply from $42 in the previous week to $35, but closed with the bid at $37.95 and moved into the number 5 spot as a result.
Cable & Wireless is unofficially the number one rated stock in the main market list based on IC Insider.com forecast, of profit for the current year, flowing from increased revenues and a sharp fall in interest cost. Uncertainty surrounding continued listing keeps it off the official list.
At the close of Friday, the average PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks ended at 6.5 compared to an average PE for the overall main market is 10 based on 2018 estimated earnings. The main market PE is 6.6 for the top stocks compared to a market average of 12.
IC Insider.com’s TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 36 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be, 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 46 percent to the market.

Purity can turn around 2017 loss this year

Consolidated Bakeries (Purity) make a loss in 2017 but could return to profit in 2018.

Profit melted away at Consolidated Bakeries for 2017 with a loss of $40 million down from a profit of $10 million in 2016 from sale revenues that slipped from $880 million to $863 million.
The company continued the loss right through to the year with a loss of $9 million before differed tax charge in the final quarter but the 2017 loss was lower than the loss of $20 million in the same period in 2016. Closer examination of the results show hope for the company going forward, into 2018
While revenues for the year fell 2 percent it rose 10 percent in the December quarter and helped to improve gross profit to 39 percent from just 31 percent in 2016 quarter. The 2017 final quarter was also much higher than the 35 percent for the full year.
Cost appeared mixed, with marketing and sales expenses rising 31 percent to $55 million and 17 percent to $158 million as this category of cost out stripped revenues by a big margin.
Administrative expenses fell 41 percent to $23 million in the quarter and fell 3 percent for the year to $158 million. Finance cost jumped in the quarter, to $16 million from $7 million, in 2016 and from $12 million to $19 million for the year.

Consolidated Bakeries Miss Birdie Easter bun.

Revaluation of the Jamaican dollar cost the company $4 in the final quarter and resulted in reduction in other income ending with a negative $2.5 million versus $5.5 in 2016 and just 875,000 for the full year versus $9 million, while the big jump in Finance cost in the December quarter seems to be one off, as such without these two items the company would have reported a profit for the quarter and augurs well for the 2018 results.
Gross cash flow was negative $7 million but growth in receivables, inventories, addition to fixed assets and drawn down on investments was offset by net loan inflows and increased payables and increased in bank overdraft ended at $74 million. At the end of December, shareholders’ equity stands at $716 million which was boosted by gain on revaluation of land and building by $206 million. Borrowings at just $135 million. Net current assets ended the period $92 million well over payables of $77 million.
Earnings per share was negative for the quarter and the fiscal year. The stock traded at $2 on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange with a PE ratio of 12 times 2018 estimated earnings of 17 cents. Earnings could be more if revenues were to increase above 10 percent for 2018.

Paramount’s lubricant plant in operation

New Lubricant plant at Walton Park Road

Profit at Paramount Trading, jumped 137 percent to $34 in the first quarter to August last year, but declined by 35 percent in the November quarter, to $24 million from $37 million in 2016.
For the six months to November, profit rose only 13 percent to $58 million from $51 million in 2016. Sale revenues rose 28 percent for the November quarter, to $257 million from $200 million in 2016 and increased 31 percent for the year to date, to $487 million from $370 million in 2016.
The board of directors in their report to shareholders accompanying the quarterly, stated that “our lubricant business line produced strong sales during the quarter when compared to the last year growing $28 million or 261 percent and by $41.6 million with a 248 percent increase year to date. Technical grade product sales grew by $47 million or 137 on quarterly basis and $83 million or 133 percent year over the period year. We expect this trend to continue into the last two quarters.”

Processing and storage tanks inside factory.

Profit margin declined in the November quarter to 28 percent from 30 percent in the 2016, and slipped to 29 percent from 31 percent for the year to date period. The effect, gross profit rose 15 percent in the quarter to $99 million from $86 million and 19 percent for the year to date, to $200 million from $169 million in 2016.
While revenues rose solidly, so did administrative expenses that jumped 47 percent to $72 million in the quarter and increased 13 percent in the six months period to $121 million. Finance cost declined in the quarter, to a negative $2 million from $4 million in 2016 and from $7 million to $1.5 million for the half year.
Earnings per share came out at 1.5 cents for the quarter and 3.7 cents for the six months and should end the fiscal year ending to March around 25 cents with four months production and sales from the lubricant plant and the expanded chlorine and bleach operations.
Gross cash flow, brought in $72 million but growth in receivables, inventories, addition to fixed assets offset by loan inflows and reduced Payables wiped out the gains.

Another view inside of the factory.

Shareholders’ equity stands at $739 million with borrowings at just $77 million. Net current assets ended the period at $486 million, well over payables of $237 million. Inventories rose to $394 million from $320 million at the end of November 2016 and receivables climbed to $321 million from $238 million with cash and investments ending at $78 million.
The company commenced operation of the joint venture lubricant plant from around a month ago as well as production of bleach, an addition of a new product line. When the lubricant plant was announced in 2015, the estimate for revenues was in the US$5 million range but now that Alpart is reopened, the amount should rise.
The stock traded at $3.10 on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange with a PE ratio of 5.6 times IC Insider.com, 2019 earnings of around 55 cents per share.