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Jamaican dollar could hit $116 to the US

Chart shows that the Jamaican dollar could go back to 120 to US dollar in 2018.

The rate to purchase the US dollar with the Jamaican dollar peaked at J$131.31 and closed 2017 at J$125. Talk to a number of persons they will tell you to use the inflation differential with the US as the measure to determine what the annual change should be. That may be true but it is just a guide not gospel.
But some say we have been there before only to see the local currency continuing on a runaway train. This time around it could indeed be vastly different. The fundamentals of the economy seems strongly in support of the local dollar that may well have exceeded an accepted competitive level, much lower than the 2017 lowest value. A number of positives have taken place. The fall in the price of oil on the world market has been a major savings and gone a long way to ease pressure on the Jamaican dollar. But other imports have fallen as well with the devaluation of the local currency while non-traditional exports have been rising fast. The BPO sector along with tourism, have done very well in earning added inflows. The net result is that the country’s current account has improved considerably at sustainable levels. The full restoration of Alpart’s operation means even more foreign exchange earnings for the country.
The Jamaican dollar lost value almost directly as a result of prolong period of excessive fiscal deficit that government ran for decades. Government is now running fiscal surpluses and that will keep inflation and interest rates low for a prolonged period and should result in a sustained value for the local currency. Importantly, with increased production of goods and services many Jamaican companies are enjoying a period of increased productivity that augurs well for increased competitiveness which lends support to the recent revaluation. Come 2019, a major portion of electricity generation will be at reduced rates as JPS switch to new sources of electricity generation that should add more to productivity.
Technically, the long term trend suggests continuation of depreciation of the dollar but shorter term chart shows a neck and shoulder pattern suggesting that the currency could correct lower to J$120 to the US while the upper trend line of the channel which was broken in 2014 could be broken if the positive trend in the economy continues, in such a situation the local dollar could fall below J$120 to the US with J$116 seems like a possible level. A look at the chart since 2016 suggests that the continuing weakness over several years may well give way to a break below the long term channel top during 2018, which may have long term implications for the local dollar, it could mean that the continuing decline in the value for several years may be arrested for some, provided the fiscal discipline is maintained.

Buying and selling shares

A decision to purchase or sell shares is usually communicated to the stockbroker by investors on a daily basis. This may be done by telephone, email or in person. Increasingly the broker are requiring their clients to commit their orders in writing.
The customer may request the stockbroker to purchase or sell a specified number of a particular stock at a particular price or at the market price which prevails at a particular day. On a trading day (Monday through Friday) the broker will fill the order of the customer and will then notify them in the form of a contract note of the details of the trade. The first orders fill are likely to market orders, but many investors tend to state specific prices for each trade.
This contract note is a very important document in the purchase or sale of a transaction. This document sets out the following:(a) The date of the transaction. (b) amounts of units bought or sold;(c) purchase or sale price;(d) name of the company that trading took place; e) the gross and net consideration. (f) Cess payable (g) the commission payable to the broker (up to 2% of consideration by the seller and up to 2% by the purchase on each transaction)(h) Trade fee that is payable to the Exchange, (i) settlement date (usually three {2} days after the date of the transaction).
Opening a brokerage account will require the investor to provide the broker with relevant information so that they have information on each of their clients. These include IDs, addresses with verification of it, references to name some of the items. for new investors brokers will usually require a deposit on the purchase.
The broker can provide an investor with recommendations for buying and selling. Investors should do their homework where necessary on the company they would want to invest in as this can help when talking to your broker. The following are the list of stock brokers that trade securities on the Jamaica Stock Exchange.

Barita Investments Limited, • GK Capital Management Limited,• JMMB Securities Limited,• JN Fund Managers Limited,• M/VL Stockbrokers Limited,• Mayberry Investments Limited,• NCB Capital Markets Limited,• Proven Wealth Limited,• Sagicor Investments Jamaica Limited,• Scotia Investments Jamaica Limited,• Stocks and Securities Limited and Victoria Mutual Wealth Management Limited.

Elite still BUY RATED regardless

Elite Diagnostics

Elite Diagnostics put out a prospectus that has erroneous interim results for the first quarter and even after sending out an addendum there are still errors in it that best the question as to credibility of the figures in the report, more importantly, the profit reported.
The question has been asked that in light of the errors and lack of credibility in the interim figures if the stock is still a buy.
First, the audited figures to June appear in order with earnings of 16 cents per share, while revenues 36 percent in the year to June over 2016. The report for the September quarter shows growth in revenues of 23 percent which appears credible when viewed against the increase for the 2017 fiscal year. Expenses for the quarter appear in line with what can be normally expected to flow from historical data. The new location on Old Hope Road, will add to cost and that is unknown as well as the likely increase in revenues that can be expected. The prospectus gives some indication of manning an equipment levels, that provides a good guide as to what can be expected for cost with 7 persons being engaged compared to 27 at the original location.
IC Insider.com delved further into the numbers and now forecast profit of 22 cents per share for the current year to June and 35 cents for 2019. The assumptions assumes growth of 33 percent in revenues for the rest of the fiscal year with the new location contributing to it, while cost is projected to jump by 30 percent and would result in profits of $78 million and $120 million in 2019 from a 23 percent increase in revenues. But revenues could grow faster with the benefits of listing.
Data shows that Junior Market companies get sizable bounce in revenues after listings, that flow from the injection of capital, new directors and most importantly, greater publicity from listing and trading. For example

Stationary and Office Supplies had a 13% point bounce in revenues after IPO

Stationery and Office Supplies saw a bounce of about 13 percentage point jump in revenues over and above the growth rate of 24 percent in the quarter prior to the IPO. In 2016, Jetcon Corporation got a major bounce in sales after listing as well. Recently listed FosRich also reported increased business as a result of their listing. IC Insider.com expects to see quite some increase in revenues for Elite due to the increased exposure from the listing.
Elite shares now rank as the sixth highest ranked Junior Market stocks for gains in 2018.
The Elite shares remain  BUY RATED notwithstanding the foul up of the interim figures. The concern is with the directorship as it would be expected that the company would have had budget with the figures compared with the actual. In such cases the directors should have picked up that the depreciation was omitted from the report, well before it was incorporated in the prospectus. The discrepancy between the cash flow, the income statement and the addition of fixed assets would have been more challenging, but with a board of 9 comprising a number of experience business and financial personnel one would not expect the type of error but it will be a moment of embarrassment for them and it one they will never forget, hopefully Elite will be the better for it.

Follies at Palace Cineplex – this Sunday

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Academy Award® nominee Imelda Staunton in the National Theatre Live: Follies

The unparalleled magic of Musical Theatre done well”- Vogue.
Eloquent desires, fantasy, nostalgia, regret and uncomfortable introspection are the intricate assembly of ingredients in Dominic Cooke’s highly anticipated revival of Stephen Sondheim and James Goldman’s 1971 Tony Award winning musical.
Cooke’s stunning production will get to the heart of Jamaican fans on Sunday January 21, 2018, 11:30 a.m. at the Jamaica Stock Exchange listed Palace Amusement, Cineplex cinema.
NT Live is the world renowned National Theatre’s groundbreaking initiative to broadcast theatre live from the stage to cinemas around the world. Each performance is captured from select theatre’s in London’s West End and broadcast live (or ‘as live’, depending on location) via satellite to over 2000 venues in more than 40 countries including Jamaica. The success of NT Live has created more interest in going to the theatre.
The plot in Follies focuses on the reunion of a group of showgirls at the theatre where they used to perform. Thirty Years after their final performance, the Follies girls gather to have a few drinks, sing a few songs and lie about themselves. As they stand at the center of the soon demolished grandeur theatre, they begin to reflect on their younger days, recall past glories and survey fragments of the dreams they once cherished.

The stunning generation of Follies Ladies in the National Theatre Live: Follies

All that glitter, is not gold as these shimmering show girls might be lovely, but their real, bruised, older selves are far from perfect. Each character is juxtaposed with the shadow of their former self – who acts as a constant, often regret-filled reminder throughout the show of their future that was once for the taking – as storylines of decades-old love triangles, affairs, and past dreams come back to haunt them.
The cast is led by Academy Award® nominee Imelda Staunton, who plays the blond, petite and sweet-faced Sally Durant Plummer. She is still remarkably like the girl she was thirty years ago and although she is married to Buddy (Peter Forbes) she finds herself still in love with her former lover Ben (Philip Quast) who is now married to her Follies sister Phyllis (Janie Dee).
The opulent production has a strong cast of 37 and a 21-piece orchestra and is directed by four-time Olivier Award winning director, Dominic Cooke, a long-standing professional in theatre and television spanning over two decades.
The dazzling aesthetic of the show is down to designer extraordinaire Vicki Mortimer, who is responsible for the extravagant array of 160 costumes, 62 headdresses, and 129 pairs of tap shoes – adorned with some 600,000 Swarovski crystals.

Buying of VM Investments & Wisynco eases

JMMB Group 7.5% preference shares was the most traded stock on the JSE on Friday.

Demand for shares in newly listed Victoria Mutual Investments and Wisynco Group slipped back in trading on the main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange on Friday to under 1 million units combined and thy fell to 5th and 6th spots in volumes traded.
Market activity ended on Friday with 22 securities changing hands from 29 on Thursday, of which 9 advanced, 11 declined an 5 traded firm leading to Market activity ended with 5,850,045 shares valued at $76,630,033 changing hands.
At the close of the market the JSE All Jamaican Composite Index declined by 26.30 points to 311,724.51 and the JSE Index fell by 23.96 points to 284,016.29.
In main market activity, Cable & Wireless concluded trading 3 cents higher at $1.35, with 717,043 units, Carreras finished 7 cents higher at $11.37, with 89,636 shares,Caribbean Cement settled at $35, with 1,500 shares, Grace Kennedy traded at $43.45, with 3,391 stock units, Jamaica Broilers finished trading with a loss of 2 cents at $17.50, with 230,169 units. Jamaica Producers closed with a loss of $1.50 at $16.50, with 12,700 shares, Jamaica Stock Exchange ended at $7, with 24,145 shares,
JMMB Group concluded trading $1 higher at $26, with 35,219 shares trading, Kingston Properties finished 1 cent higher at $6.01, with 2,444 stock units. Kingston Wharves jumped $3.42 to $33.50, with 1,016 units, Mayberry Investments ended trading 28 cents higher at $6.05, with 51,446 shares, NCB Financial Group traded at $99.80, with 59,009 shares, 1834 Investments finished trading 5 cents higher at $1.20, with 4,504 shares. Radio Jamaica rose 5 cents to close at $1.10, with 5,000 shares, Sagicor Group ended trading with a loss of 50 cents at $35, with 311,149 stock units, Salada Foods traded $1.50 higher at $12.50, with 220 units, Scotia Group finished trading with a loss of $2.99 to close at $50, with 637,638 shares. Seprod closed with a rise of $1.50 to $30, with 6,597 shares, Supreme Ventures concluded trading 25 cents higher at $11.25, with 1,101,640 stock units, VM Investments Limited finished with a loss of 10 cents at $4, with 462,166 units and Wisynco Group settled 15 cents higher at $10.65, with 433,313 shares. In the main market preference segment, JMMB Group 7.5% closed with a loss of 3 cents at $1.15, with 1,660,100 shares.
Prices of securities trading for the day are those at which the last trade took place. For more details of market activities, see “Main market almost steady – Friday.”

Main market almost steady – Friday

Scotia Group dropped $2.99 to $50.

Trading on the Main Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange ended on Friday with JSE All Jamaican Composite Index declined by 26.30 points to 311,724.51 and the JSE Index declined by 23.96 points to 284,016.29.
Main market activities ended with 11 stocks rising, 6 declining and 5 trading firm as 22 securities traded versus 22 on Thursday. Market activity ended with 5,850,045 shares valued at $76,630,033, in contrast to 4,616,878 shares valued at $176,039,060 on Thursday.
Trading in the US dollar market ended Proven Investments trading 20,256 ordinary shares with a value of US$4,456 at 22 US cents. The JSE US Equities Index closed with a loss of 0.09 points to 168.75.
Trading ended with an average of 265,911 units for an average of $3,483,183 in contrast to 164,889 units for an average of $6,287,109 on Thursday. The average volume and value for the month to date amounts to 256,686 units valued at $6,288,571 and previously 256,118 units valued at $6,475,597. December closed with average of 686,156 units valued at an average of $8,654,832 for each security traded.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading in the main and the US dollar markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 4 stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and 5 with lower offers.
The major movers at the close of the market are, Victoria Mutual Investments trading just under the million range, with 462,000 units changing hands and Wisynco Group exchanging 433,000 units, down from the 1 million range that they have been trading at shortly after listing in late December. Supreme Ventures traded 1.1 million units and JMMB Group 7.5% preference share ended with 1,660,100 shares trading. Price changes saw, JMMB Group adding $1 to close at $26, Jamaica Producers gave back the $1.50 increase on Friday to close at $16.50, Kingston Wharves jumped $3.42 to $34.50, Salada Foods gaining $1.50 to end at $12.50, Scotia Group fell $2.99 to close at $50 and Seprod rose $1.50 back to $30.
For more details of market activities see – Buying of VM Investments & Wisynco eases.

Jamaican$ sits above 125 to US on Friday

In foreign exchange trading on Friday, the Jamaican dollar remained above J$125 against the United States currency for the second day as outflows exceeded inflows.
At the close of trading on Friday, the rate the public bought the US dollar climbed 23 cents Jamaican but the rate dealers bought the Green back rose by 5 cents.
Trading for the week fell below that of the previous one, with inflows of US$262 million versus $235 million previously and outflows of US$191 and US$207 in the prior week.
Inflows of all currencies rose to US$36.01 million, from US$29.86 million on Thursday with the selling of US$42.23 million up from US$39.40 million on Thursday.
In US dollar, trading dealers sold US$38.57 million at an average of $125.07 at the close, compared US$32.50 million at an average of $124.80 on Thursday. US currency purchases by dealers, amounted to US$31.79 million at an average of $123.79 at the close, compared US$27.56 million at an average of $123.65.
On Friday at midday dealers purchased US$9.86 million at an average rate of J$124.33 and sold US$7.9 million at an average of J$125.33.

Foreign exchange trading fell off this past week vs the second week in January.

At mid-day on Thursday dealers purchased US$10.57 million at an average rate of J$124.17 and sold US$10.05 million at an average of J$125.07.
The selling rate for the Canadian dollar rose to J$100.57 from J$98.84 at the close on Thursday. The selling rate for the British Pound fell on Friday, to J$170.44 from J$172.86 previously and the euro rose in value against the Jamaican dollar at J$153.82 to buy the European common currency, versus the prior selling rate of J$153.76.

Gwest corners 76% of Junior Market trades

Recent Junior Market listing, GWest Corporation dominated trading on Friday with 2.2 million shares and accounting for 76 percent of the overall volume traded for the day, the spice slipped by 20 cents to $2.80 at the close.
The Junior Market Index slipped 0.73 points to 2,697.52, resulting from an exchange of 2,964,625 units valued at $9,024,979 compared to 1,258,859 units valued at $5,181,599 on Thursday.
Market activity ended with 21 securities changing hands versus 18 on Thursday, with gains in the prices of 4 securities, declines in 8 with 9 closing unchanged.
Trading ended with an average of 141,173 units for an average of $429,761 in contrast to 69,937 units for an average of $287,867 on Thursday. For the month to date an average of 111,699 shares valued at $393,882 and previously, an average of 98,998 shares valued at $391,387. December closed with an average of 568,732 units valued at $3,447,957 for each security traded.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 5 stocks ending with the bid higher than the last selling price and 3 with lower offers.
At the close of the market, Access Financial closed with a loss of 1 cent at $42, with 1,000 shares, AMG Packaging ended at $2.55, with 12,775 stock units, CAC 2000 finished with a loss of 70 cents at $7.30, with 4,000 shares trading, Caribbean Cream ended trading 10 cents higher at $5, with 173,000 shares, Caribbean Producers finished trading with a loss of 10 cents at $4.30, with 11,471 units. Consolidated Bakeries closed with a loss of 10 cents at $2.60, with 1,000 shares, Dolphin Cove finished at $16.10, with 7,745 stock units, Eppley settled at $11, with 100 units, Express Catering ended trading with a loss of 30 cents at $4.20, with 2,944 shares. FosRich Group traded 7 cents higher at $2.60, with 316,755 shares, GWest Corporation closed 11 cents higher at $2.81, with 2,261,047 stock units, Honey Bun ended at $4.15, with 12,000 units, Jamaican Teas settled at $4.50, with 15,800 shares. Jetcon Corporation ended trading with a loss of 44 cents at $4.01, with 39,761 stock units, Knutsford Express closed at $15, with 1,108 shares, Lasco Distributors ended with a loss of 14 cents at $3.45, with 16,150 shares, Lasco Financial concluded trading with a loss of 10 cents at $5.25, with 71,609 stock units. Lasco Manufacturing finished 14 cents higher at $3.49, with 7,500 units, Medical Disposables ended trading at $4.95, with 560 shares and tTech ended at $6.38, with 4,300 shares. In the junior market preference segment, Eppley 9.5% finished at $7.20, with 4,000 shares,
Prices of securities trading for the day are those at which the last trade took place.

Witco recovers $3.99 on Friday

Trading activity on the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange may be getting a lift with the price of oil on the world market having risen to the $60 region, this seems to be helping the market to exhibit more positive tones since the start of the year.
At close of trading on the market on Friday, 14 securities changed hands against 17 on Thursday, with 6 stocks advancing, 1 declining and 7 remaining unchanged.
At close the Composite Index gained 3.24 points on Friday to end at 1,277.01, the All T&T Index rose 7.63 points to 1,713.52, while Cross Listed Index shed 0.17 points to close at 113.41.
Market activity ended with 674,993 shares with a value of $11,049,643 traded, compared to 295,409 shares with a value of $3,238,095 on Thursday.

West Indian Tobacco jumps $3.99 on friday.

IC bid-offer Indicator|At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 2 stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and 6 with lower offers.
Gains| Clico Investments ended trading with an increase of 1 cent to end at $21.01, trading 7,587 units, First Citizens concluded trading and rose 1 cent close at $32.01, trading 121,850 shares valued $, Grace Kennedy added 15 cents and finished at 52 weeks; high of $3.30, with 27,500 units, Scotiabank increased 2 cents and concluded trading at $60.52, with 5,000 stock units, Trinidad Cement rose 10 cents and finished at $3.85, trading 53,188 shares and West Indian Tobacco recovered $3.99 of the $5 loss on Thursday and ended at $88.99, with 1,110 stock units trading.
Losses| First Caribbean International Bank lost 15 cents and finished at $9.15, trading 9,000 shares valued at $3,900,425.
Firm Traded| Guardian Holdings ended at $17.05, trading 239,592 shares valued at $4,085,309, JMMB Group finished trading at $1.81, with 41,046 stock units changing hands, Massy Holdings concluded at trading at $48, with 435 stock units, NCB Financial Group closed trading at $6.75, exchanging 124,461 shares with a value of $840,111, Republic Financial Holdings finished trading at $101.51, with 3,900 stock units valued at $395,865, Sagicor Financial ended at $7.90, with 14,733 units changing hands and Trinidad & Tobago NGL ended with $26.50, with 25,591 units carrying a value of $678,162 being exchanged.
Prices of securities trading for the day are those at which the last trade took place.

Main market makes big gains – Thursday

Wisynco producers of Wata, traded 1.75 million shares on Thursday.

The Main Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange recovered some lost ground on Thursday with JSE All Jamaican Composite Index jumping 1,681.33 points to 311,750.81 and the JSE Index climbing 1,531.89 points to 284,040.25.
Main market activities ended with 9 stocks rising, 11 declining and 5 trading firm as 22 securities traded versus 22 on Wednesday.
Market activity ended with 4,616,878 shares valued at $176,039,060, in contrast to 3,008,815 shares valued at $51,707,605 on Wednesday.
Trading in the US dollar market ended Proven Investments trading 78,270 ordinary shares with a value of US$17,207 at 22 US cents. The JSE US Equities Index closed with a loss of 0.09 points to 168.66.
Trading ended with an average of 164,889 units for an average of $6,287,109 in contrast to 136,764 units for an average of $2,350,346 on Wednesday. The average volume and value for the month to date amounts to 256,118 units valued at $6,475,597 and previously 263,882 units valued at $6,493,073. December closed with average of 686,156 units valued at an average of $8,654,832 for each security traded.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading in the main and the US dollar markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 2 stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and 4 with lower offers.
The major movers at the close of the market are, Victoria Mutual Investments trading just under the million range, with 893,653 units changing hands and Wisynco Group exchanging 1,751,629 units. Price changes saw Berger Paints closing $1.49 higher at $18, Caribbean Cement jumping $2.50 to close at $35, Jamaica Producers closed $1.50 higher at $18, Kingston Wharves settled with a loss of $1.42 at $30.08 and Seprod concluded trading with a loss of $1.50 at $28.50.
For more details of market activities see – Demand rise for VM Investments & Wisynco .