MailPac drops out of IC TOP 10

Newly listed MailPac Group more than doubled in price, trading as high as $2.60 but closed the week at $2.22 at the end the past week and dropped out of the TOP Junior Market listing.
IC Insider.com has upgraded the average targeted PE to March 2020 based on the valuation of more than 22 times earnings, that the market has placed on several stocks currently.
 Honey Bun also jumped ship after posting strong growth with full-year results showing profit rising 67 percent to hit $157 million from a 17 percent rise in revenues to $1.54 billion. The stock closed at $8, up from $7 last week, but traded at a record high of $9.20 on Friday. Honey Bun entered the TOP 10 in the first week in October at $6.15 and left with a gain of 30 percent, but it still has more gains ahead of it. tTech price fell to $5.35 and re-entered the TOP 10 along with Caribbean Flavours, with its price dropping from $17.90 last week to close at $15.64 to return to the TOP 10.  PanJam Investment moved into the JSE Main Market Top 10 at the expense of Stanley Motta.
The past week was generally good for stocks as the JSE Main Market rose 4,691 points and the Junior Market climbed 89 points. The Junior Market movement was partially helped by the steep rise in the price of MailPac, from the IPO price of $1. Importantly, the Junior Market has made a sharp break out of a downward sloping channel that started after the market peaked in Mid-August. It now seems to be heading higher, with a healthy break out of the channel.
IC Insider.com has upgraded the target PE ratios to 25 with several stocks trading at that around 22 currently. The average projected gains for the IC TOP 10 stocks are 187 percent for Junior Market stocks and 145 percent for JSE Main market Top 10 shares.
Medical Disposables lead the top three Junior Market stocks with projected gains of 246 percent, followed by Main Event with potential profits of 189 percent and Jamaican Teas with 189 percent.
Berger Paints is the new lead stock with projected gains of 126 percent, followed by Carreras in the number two spot with projected growth of 122 percent and Radio Jamaica with likely increases of 111 percent is next.
The JSE Main Market closed the week, with an overall PE of 21.5 and the Junior Market at 14.6, an improvement over the previous week’s 14.2, based on current year’s earnings. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks averages 8.9 from 8.7 last week with the Main Market PE at 10.5.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at a discount of 39 percent to the average for Junior Market stocks and JSE Main Market stocks trade at a discount of 51 percent to the overall market.
IC TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns to March next year. Projected earnings, along with the PE ratio for each company’s current fiscal year, are used in determining potential gains with the likely gains ranked in descending order with highest-ranked being the most attractive. Possible values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.

This report is compiled by persons who may have an interest in the securities commented on.

Scotia Group aiming to up profits

Scotia Group headquarters in Kingston.

The 2019 fiscal year is turning out to be one of the best in recent times for the number 2 banking group in Jamaica – Scotia Group. The current year was not the best performing, but it delivered on many counts for the majority Canadian owned banking group.
Critically, the primary engine driving profits – loans, grew 12.6 percent, or $23 billion to $206 billion. According to the Managing Director, David Noel, “total loan growth remained strong throughout the period with a year over year increase of 13 percent. Highlights from our Retail Banking portfolio include a 17 percent year over year growth in our Scotia Plan loan portfolio. Our mortgage portfolio continued to perform well and grew 13 percent year over year as we continue to boast one of the most competitive mortgage rates in the market. Our total commercial loan book increased by 14 percent over the prior year. Of note, commercial loans to the private sector increased by 27 percent when compared to the same period last year.”
The group reports a net profit of $13.19 billion for the year to October, an increase of $419 million or 3.28 percent over the prior year. In 2018, the group booked gains on the sale of a subsidiary of $753 million, when this gain is excluded, net profit from ongoing operations increased by stronger 9.75 percent amounting to $1.17 billion.
Performance for the year was affected by lower net interest income due to declining interest rates and higher loan loss provision, following the adoption of a new accounting standard. Net interest income after expected credit losses for the year totaled $22.5 billion, down $767 million or 3.3 percent, compared to the prior year. Importantly, the group’s final quarter numbers show marked improvement in net interest income compared to the 2018 quarter. Net interest income delivered $6.4 million to the quarterly results compared to just $6 billion in 2018, while Net interest income after expected credit losses rose from $5.35 billion in the October 2018 quarter to $5.75 billion in 2019.
Scotia reports that “our credit quality remains strong and actual delinquency is down year over year, with loans on which there is no interest being booked for representing 1.77 percent of gross loans compared to 2 percent in the prior year.”
The Group reports, “operating expenses were also higher than the prior-year due partially to increased fraud-related expenses, as well as increased investments in technology and business optimization which we believe are necessary investments for the future.”
“We will continue to make investments in our infrastructure, including a $500 million investment to create a state of the art branch. Renovations have also begun at our head office building, where we are investing $1 billion to upgrade and modernize our facilities to create a more efficient and collaborative environment.”

Scotia Group’s Falmouth branch

Operating expenses for the year amounted to $24 billion for the period, an increase of $2 billion, or 9.54 percent compared to the prior year. Salaries and staff benefit costs increased by $697 million or 6.76 percent primarily due to increased incentives to the sales team resulting in the growth of in the loan portfolio, while other operating expenses grew by $1.37 billion. The growth in other operating expenses was attributable to increased technology investments such as ATM software, online banking enhancements, security chips for credit cards and network upgrade to support our digital strategy. Tax on assets increased by $45 million to $1.13 billion.
Segment results saw Treasury generating revenues of $8.2 billion up from $7 billion in 2018 with a profit of compared to $4.1 billion in 2018. Retail revenues grew to $18.9 billion up from $18.3 billion in 2018, with a profit of $3.6 billion compared to $4.9 billion in 2018. Corporate and Commercial banking saw revenues rise from $7.8 billion to $8 billion and profit hitting $1.4 billion in 2019 versus $2.75 billion in 2018. Insurance services grew revenues from $5 billion to $5.1 billion and generated a slightly higher profit of $3.97 billion from $3.8 billion in 2018. Investment Management generated revenues of $3.5 million and a profit of $2.3 billion in 2019 compared to $3 billion in revenues and profit of $1.8 billion in 2018. Other operations raked in revenues of $1.54 in 2019 with a profit of $1.5 billion, in 2018, revenues were just $1 billion with a profit of $965 million.
Other income for the year, other than interest income, increased by $3 billion or 17.97 percent over 2018. Net fee and commission income amounted to $8 billion, marginal declining of $22 million. Insurance revenues increased by $371 million or 12.64 percent to $3.30 billion due mainly to higher premium income year over year, partially offset by lower actuarial reserve releases, the group reported.
Net gains on foreign currency activities and financial assets amounted to $8.43 billion, up by $3.3 billion or 63 percent above last year due to increased market and trading activities. Deposits by the public grew to $313 billion, up from $288 billion in the previous year.
The Group’s shareholders’ equity stands at $118 billion from which the Board of Directors approved a final dividend of 55 cents per stock unit, or $1.7 billion, up from 51 cents per share in 2018. The current dividend is payable on January 15, 2020, to stockholders of record on December 24. The January 2020 dividend brings the total payment for the year to $4.76 after the group made two special dividend payments during the year.
The group reported earnings per share of $1.09 for the final quarter and $4.24 for the full year, earnings per share for 2020 should hit the $5 mark.
Scotia Group is a good stock for income and long-term growth.

Greater stability for IC TOP 10

NCB Financial is back in IC TOP10

The past week saw the initial public offers for Mailpac Group and Lumber Depot coming to the market with both being fully subscribed.
There were just two changes to the IC TOP 10 list of stocks at the end of the week. NCB Financial makes it back into the TOP 10 at the expense of JMMB Group that rose in price to $46 while the Junior Market TOP 10 welcomed Dolphin Cove while saying goodbye to Fontana.
The top three Junior Market stocks, is now led by CAC 2000 with projected gains of 200 percent, followed by MailPac Group with 180 percent and Main Event, with potential gains of 179 percent.
Radio Jamaica remains the lead stock with projected gains of 170 percent, followed by Pulse Investments in the number two spot with projected growth of 127 and Berger Paints with likely gains of 116 percent and percent is next.
The main market, closed the week with the overall PE of 18.8 and the Junior Market at 13.8, based on the current year’s earnings. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks averages 7.8 with the main market PE at 10.4.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at a discount of 43 percent to the average for Junior Market stocks and main market stocks trade at a discount of 45 percent to the overall market.
IC TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns to March next year. Projected earnings, along with the PE ratio for each company’s current fiscal year are used in determining potential gains with the likely gains ranked in descending order with highest-ranked being the most attractive. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.

This report is compiled by persons who may have an interest in the securities commented on.

Major shakeup in IC TOP 10

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The past week saw the release of quarterly results by several companies and that helped in reshaping IC TOP 10 list of stocks for the coming week. The Junior Market TOP 10 has 5 changes and the main market just one.
Earnings downgrades and the announcement of new initial public offers were the main factors that resulted in the changes.
Mailpac Group and the Lumber Depot released prospectuses this past week, with both making it into the Junior Market TOP 10 list. Other notable changes to the Junior Market list are Caribbean Flavours, Fontana and Honey Bun that reentered the top list after weeks of absence. Dropping from the list are Iron Rock Insurance, Caribbean Producers and tTech, all of which suffered earnings downgrade.
Mailpac Group released its prospectus to sell 500 million shares at $1 each with earnings of 14 cents per share for a PE of 7 and potential gains of 180 percent. The Lumber Depot released its prospectus on Friday with a projected profit of $82 million or 16 cents per share.
JMMB Group released substantial gains in the half-year results that helped to propel it into the main market TOP 10 at the expense of Seprod. The latter suffered an earnings downgrade following the release of the nine months results.
 The top three Junior Market stocks, is now led by Main Event with projected gains of 201 percent, followed by Medical Disposables with 186 percent and by new entrant MailPac Group, with a potential increase of 180 percent.
Radio Jamaica
remains the lead stock with projected gains of 170 percent, followed by Pulse Investments in the number two spot with projected growth of 144 and Carreras with a likely increase in the stock price of 117 percent and percent is next.
The main market, closed the week with the overall PE of 17.6 and the Junior Market at 13.8 from 12.1, based on current year’s earnings. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks averages 8.1 with the main market PE at 10.5.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at a discount of 42 percent to the average for Junior Market stocks and main market stocks trade at a discount of 40 percent to the overall market.
IC TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns to March next year. Projected earnings, along with the PE ratio for each company’s current fiscal year are used in determining potential gains with the likely gains ranked in descending order with highest-ranked being the most attractive. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.

This report is compiled by persons who may have an interest in the securities commented on.

MailPac Group IPO gains IC buy rating

Mail Pac Group and shareholders are selling 500 million shares at $1 each to raise $500 million with the offer opening on November 22. Applications from the general public must be for a minimum of 10,000 shares.  
The general public will be allowed to purchase just 6 percent or 150 million of the total issued share capital of 2.5 billion units that will be issued, following the close of the issue.
MailPac Group was formed late in 2019 and acquired Mailpac Services Limited and Mailpac Local Limited from Norbrook Equity Partners, majority shareholders, to amalgamate both logistics platforms into one operating business.
Profit is expected to reach $282 million in the 12 months to December this year based on results of the business operations for 2019 and will result in 14 cents earnings per share and a PE ratio of just seven times 2019 earnings and compares favourable with the average for the Junior Market of over 12 .5.
The company projects a profit of $317 million in 2020, but IC Insider.com is forecasting $356 and 14 cents per share. The stock receives the coveted IC Insider.com Buy Rated grading, with the price doubling by 2020.
The company enjoyed growth in revenues of 12.2 percent in 2017 and 25.7 percent in 2018 and 28.8 percent for the first half of 2019.
Before the acquisition mentioned above, the businesses in 2018 grew revenues to $969 million and $851 for the first three-quarters of 2019. Net income for the same periods was $213 million and $203 million, respectively. Mailpac Local Limited operated for seven months in 2018.
The Company intends to apply to the JSE for listing on the Junior Market subject raising at least $495 million. Proceeds are for general corporate purposes, including working capital and capital expenditure re and to settle existing debt obligations the selling shareholder assumed on behalf of the Company.
According to the company, Mailpac Services offers over 20 years of expertise in e-commerce fulfillment. With a rapidly growing client base of over 50,000 consumers in Jamaica, the business, a technological fulfillment platform for anyone shopping online. MGL’s core offering provides clients with physical addresses in Miami, Florida, where they can receive all goods purchased from international providers. Deliveries to the 55,000 square foot Florida warehouse are flown to Jamaica by a third-party cargo plane. MGL clears all items and delivers them to the customers at their homes or businesses or customers may collect packages at any of the company’s eleven stores islandwide.
The directors of the company are Khary Robinson, Executive Chairman, Mark Gonzales Executive Director & CEO, Garth Pearce Director, William Craig Independent, Non-Executive Director Tracy-Ann Spence Independent, Non-Executive Director. In the interest of good corporate governance, the board would do well to appoint an independent non-executive director as the chairman.

Jamaica Producers Q3 profit doubles

Jamaica Producers former headquarters in Kingston Jamaica

Profit surged 102 percent in the September quarter, to $330 million from $164 million in 2019 for shareholders of Jamaica Producers. For the nine months to September, profit jumped 66 percent to $959 million from $578 million in 2019 on the back of a modest rise in revenues.
Sale revenues rose just 5 percent for the quarter, to $5.22 billion from $4.96 billion but gained a stronger 8 percent for the year to date, to hit $15.4 billion from $14.3 billion in 2019. The third-quarter revenues grew more slowly than second-quarter revenues, which increased 12 percent to $5.4 billion over the 2018 period and net profit attributable to shareholders increased then by 52 percent to $399 million.
The group’s main activities are port terminal operations, logistics, food and juice manufacturing, the cultivation, marketing and distribution of fresh produce, land management and the holding of investments. The group has operations in the UK, Europe, Jamaica and some other Caribbean countries.
The current year is not the only one that profits jumped sharply for the group. In 2018, profit attributable to the Group’s shareholders rose 66.5 percent for the June quarter over that of 2017 and 65 percent for the half-year from revenues that grew 20 percent and 25 percent, respectively. The group had significant growth in profit from ongoing operations in 2017 over 2016 with negligible profit from operations.
Improvement in profit margin in the half of the year to 34 percent from 31 percent in 2018 continued at the same pace in the September quarter with 34 percent from 29 percent in 2018 and for the year to September, 34 percent from 30 percent in 2018. The improved margin helped push gross profit up 24 percent in the quarter to $1.76 billion from $1.42 million and rose 23 percent for the year to date, to $5.3 billion from $4.3 billion in 2019.
Selling, administration and other operating expenses rose 18 percent to $958 million in the quarter and increased 14 percent in the nine months to $2.8 million. Finance cost declined in the quarter, to $78 million from $89 million in 2018 and from $234 million to $277 million for the nine months.
Earnings per share (EPS) came out at 29.4 cents for the quarter and 85.5 cents for the nine months. EPS should end the fiscal year ending December to $1.25 with a PE ratio of 17 at the price of $21.50 it last traded on the main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange and is in line with the average for main market stocks. The net asset value ended at $12.30, with the stock selling at 1.75 book value.
Gross cash flow brought in $3.7 billion, growth in receivables, investment transactions, purchase of fixed assets and the paying of $125 million in dividends resulted in cash funds at the ending at $927 million. At the end of September, shareholders’ equity stood at $14 billion, with borrowings at just $6 billion. Net current assets ended the period at $6.4 billion inclusive of trade and other receivables of $9 million, cash and bank balances of $927 million. Current liabilities stood at $3.2 billion at the end of September.
Jamaica Producers is a buy for the medium to long term.

Two new entries to IC TOP 10

Back in IC TOP 10

The vast majority of listed companies on the Jamaica Stock Exchange will be releasing quarterly results by the end of the week and that could result in significant price movements for some. The major moves should apply mostly in the Junior Market that has several undervalued stocks.
The main market TOP 10 has two new additions this week with Pulse Investments surging back into the list with robust first-quarter results, suggesting that profit for the year could reach 50 cents per share.  Scotia Group also returned to the top flight while Eppley and Proven Investments exited the listing. There was no change to the Junior Market TOP 10 list.
The top three Junior Market stocks continue to be led by Caribbean Producers with projected gains of 254 percent, followed by Iron Rock Insurance with a potential rise of 232 percent and Main Event with 221 percent.
Radio Jamaica remains the lead stock with projected gains of 170 percent, followed by Carreras in the number two spot with likely increases of 106 percent and Berger Paints with projected growth of 95 percent is next.
The main market closed the week with the overall PE of 17.6, up from 17.2 and the Junior Market at 12.1 from 11.8, based on current year’s earnings. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks averages 7.5, with the main market PE at 10.6.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at a discount of 38 percent to the average for Junior Market stocks and main market stocks trade at a discount of 40 percent to the overall market.
IC TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns to March next year. Projected earnings, along with the PE ratio for each company’s current fiscal year are used in determining potential gains with the likely gains ranked in descending order with highest-ranked being the most attractive. The increased values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.
This report is compiled by persons who may have an interest in the securities commented on.

Main Event leaps into IC TOP 10

Main Event revenues growing nicely profit stalls.

Overall price movement on the Jamaica Stock Exchange was steadier ahead of the month-end but some stocks recorded notable price movements as the JMMB Group APO remained opened.
Main Event shot into the Junior Market TOP 10 list this week in the number 3 position with a switch to earnings for 2020 fiscal year. The company came under selling pressure recently with profit declining in the July quarter although revenues climbed a strong 29 percent over the outturn for the similar quarter in 2018. The company managed to record a modest increase in its nine months profit with earnings per share of 36 cents. If the growth in revenues maintains the trend for 2019 in 2020 and management controls cost that was out of line in 2019, then the company should go on to record a strong increase in profit in the 2020 fiscal year that starts this month.
Honey Bun returns to the Junior Market TOP 10 stocks while Caribbean Flavours and Access Financial with an earnings downgrade, following release of the six months results, are out of the IC TOP 10. Over in the main market, Eppley moved in at the expense of Scotia Group with the price climbing to $58.99 on Friday.
The top three Junior Market stocks, continue to be led by Caribbean Producers with projected gains of 237 percent, followed by Iron Rock Insurance with potential gains of 233 percent followed by Main Event with 226 percent.
Radio Jamaica remains the lead stock with projected gains of 176 percent, followed by Carreras in the number two spot with likely gains of 128 percent and Jamaica Broilers with projected growth of 107 percent is next.
The main market, closed the week with the overall PE of 17.8, up from 17.2 and the Junior Market at 12.1 from 11.8, based on current year’s earnings. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks averages 7.8 with the main market PE at 10.7 from 10.8 for the previous week.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at a discount of 37 percent to the average for Junior Market stocks and main market stocks trade at a discount of 38 percent to the overall market.
IC TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns to March next year. Projected earnings, along with the PE ratio for each company’s current fiscal year are used in determining potential gains with the likely gains ranked in descending order with highest-ranked being the most attractive. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.

This report is compiled by persons who may have an interest in the securities commented on.

IC TOP 10 steady in market volatility

The main market slipped on each trading day, this past week with the market index dropping more than 11,000 points and has corrected nearly 8 percent from the peak in August while the Junior Market fell 65 points but the TOP 10 stocks had one change.  
Jetcon Corporation rose in price by the end of the week to $1.99 from $1.85 at the close of the previous week and dropped out of the Junior Market TOP 10, while CAC2000 moved back into the top 10 at the number ten spot.
Market activity resulted in no change to the top three Junior Market stocks, leaving Caribbean Producers with projected gains of 233 percent as the leader, followed by Iron Rock with potential gains of 233 percent and Jamaican Teas with 167 percent.
Radio Jamaica closed the week down at $1.80 from $1.99 with projected gains of 178 percent, up from last week’s 151 percent and remains the leading undervalued main market stock. Carreras is the number two stock with likely gains of 129 percent and Berger Paints with projected gains of 95 percent is next.
The main market closed the week with the overall PE of 17.2 and the Junior Market at 11.8 based on current year’s earnings. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks average is at 7.8 and the main market PE fell to 10.8 from 11.1 for the previous week.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at a discount of 34 percent to the average for Junior Market stocks and main market stocks trade at a discount of 37 percent to the overall market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns to March next year. Projected earnings, along with the PE ratio for each company’s current fiscal year are used in determining potential gains with the likely gains ranked in descending order with highest ranked being the most attractive. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.

This report is compiled by persons who may have an interest in the securities commented on.

42% gain pushes MPC out of IC TOP 10

Infrequent trader MPC Caribbean Clean Energy after just six weeks on the TOP 10 main market chart with the price at $134 dropped out this week, with the price hitting $190 for a gain of 42 percent.
MPC was the only stock leaving the main market listing and is replaced by Stanley Motta with the stock price dropping to $5.50. Jetcon Corporation returns to the Junior Market after General Accident rising to $8 and falling to the 13th position on the overall Junior Market ranking.
Market activity resulted in no change to the top three Junior Market stocks, leaving Caribbean Producers with projected gains of 240 percent as the leader, followed by Iron Rock with potential gains of 204 percent and Jamaican Teas with 158 percent.
Increased investors’ interest pushed the price of Radio Jamaica to $1.99 with projected gains now down to 151 percent from last week’s 213 percent but still remains the leading main market stock with potential gains. Carreras sits at the number two spot with likely gains of 125 percent and Jamaica Broilers with projected gains of 100 percent is next.
The main market, closed the week with the overall PE of 17.3, inching up from 17.2 for the previous week and the Junior Market rose to 12 from 11.1 last week based on current year’s earnings. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks average rose to 7.9 from 7.7 and the main market PE remains at 11.1.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at a discount of 34 percent to the average for Junior Market stocks and main market stocks trade at a discount of 36 percent to the overall market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns to March next year. Projected earnings, along with the PE ratio for each company’s current fiscal year are used in determining potential gains with the likely gains ranked in descending order with highest-ranked being the most attractive. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.

This report is compiled by persons who may have an interest in the securities commented on.