Profit more than doubles at Kremi

Profit after taxation at the IC Insider.com BUY RATED Caribbean Cream more than doubled, with a jump of 110 percent for the six months to August and 220 percent in the August quarter, to $74 million from $35 million in 2019 for the half-year and a rise from $14.7 million for the 2019 quarter to $47 million.
Operating revenues rose nine percent for the quarter, to $461 million from $422 million and six percent for the year to date, from $840 million in 2019 to $891 million. For the fiscal year to February, this year, revenues rose by 10 percent to $1.7 billion.
Improvement in profit margin resulted in gross profit rising faster than sales with 15 percent improvement in the first half of the year to $310 million versus $269 million in 2019 and 28 percent in the August quarter with gross profit of $171 from $133 million.
Selling, distribution and administrative expenses declined from $114 million in the 2019 quarter, to $111 million in 2020 and from $221 million in 2019, to $216 million in the six months to August. The decline in cost took place in spite of a sharp increase in depreciation charges in the current year, from $29 million to $59 million. Finance cost increased in the quarter to $6 million from $4 million in 2019 and from $10 million to $9 million for the six months period. Taxation doubled to $10.6 million for the half-year from $5 million in 2019 and moved from $2 million for the quarter to $6.7 million.
Historical results going back to the 2014 fiscal year shows steady annual growth in sales revenue but a more uneven increase in profits. The latter is partially due to the cost associated with expansion and the buying of market share that saw a less aggressive increase in selling prices for its products.
Earnings per share for the quarter came out at 12 cents and 20 cents for the six months.
Gross cash flow brought in $143 million, but growth in inventories, loan repayment offset by loan inflows and reduced payables pushed the cash funds to $152 million at the end of August, up from $58 million at the end of August 2019. With the increased profit for the year to date, shareholders’ equity now stands at $818 million, with borrowings at just $249 million. Net current assets ended the period at $191 million, including trade and other receivables of $63 million, while Current liabilities stood at $162 million.
The company paid 2.49 cents per share as the final dividend for the year ended February 29, 2020, on Friday, October 2. Net asset value is $2.16, with the stock selling at 2.3 times book value.
The results encouraged buying into the stock on Friday, with the price moving from $4.71 it last traded at on Thursday to a high of $5.25. IC Insider.com forecasts earnings of 60 cents per share for the current year that ends in February 2021 and 95 cents for 2022. The PE is currently 8.5 times the current year’s earnings based on the latest price of $5.15, the stock traded at on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange.

Depreciation melts Kremi profit

A quick look at the audited accounts for Caribbean Cream to February shows another year of disappointing results that cut across the likely outturn the November 2019 results suggested. Closer examination of the data reveals a far better picture of the company’s performance than initially meets the eye.

Caribbean Cream Kremi brand

Profit for 2020 fell sharply, but gross cash flow rose for the year in which revenues rose 10 percent as a sharp rise in depreciation charge knocked net profit down to $55 million from the $89 million reported in 2019 with earnings per share falling to 14 cents, down from 23 cents in 2019.
The depreciation charge more than doubled in the year, with an increase of $63 million, to end at $115 million as fixed assets amounting to $432 million were added during the year and were subject to be depreciated. Leased assets costing $115 million, also incurred depreciation, a different treatment than in the prior year. Although the profit fell sharply by 38.5 percent, increased depreciation resulted in gross cash inflows being $195 million compared to $165 million in 2019.
Revenues rose 10 percent from $1.55 billion to $1.7 billion for the year, with the final quarter growing at a faster pace than the 7.7 up to November. In the last quarter, revenues grew a healthy 16.2 percent to $471 million from $405 million in 2019. Unfortunately, of the $115 million depreciation charge for the year, only $53 million was booked up to November last year, resulting in $62 million booked in the final quarter.
Gross profit margin declined in the year leading to gross profit rising slower than the increase in revenues at 5 percent to $546 million and is due primarily to a 12 percent rise in raw material cost and a 76 percent increase in depreciation charges in the manufacturing operation. Overall, cost rose faster than the increase in revenues for the year with Administrative, selling and distribution expenses 15 percent for the year.
The company is in a healthy financial position at the end of February, with shareholders’ equity stood at $744 million with borrowings of $232 million. Net current assets ended the period at $74 million inclusive of trade and other receivables of $58 million, cash and bank balances of $129 million while Current liabilities closed the period at $232 million.
IC Insider.com is forecasting earning per share of 50 cents for the current fiscal year, assuming only minimal negative impact from Coronavirus. The stock traded at $2.20 on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange with a PE ratio of 4.5 times 2021 earnings.

Market Watch still on Scotia

Scotia Group January 2019 first quarter results due this week.

The main and Junior markets of the Jamaica Stock Exchange pulled back in the holiday shortened week as investors continue to digest and react to some mixed results for 2018.
Scotia Group did not released this past week as was done in 2018. The 2019 result is expected this week, this is one that is to be watched keenly and investors would be smart to keep an eye on the most critical signal that it will send for increased profits for this year. It must show meaningful  growth in the loan portfolio, to start pumping up profit. Caribbean Cement closed at $51.02 and should move higher with limited supply on offer and an analysis of the audited 2018 results suggesting that cost should decline sharply in some areas and revenues rise in the current year. IC Insider.com again revised earnings, this time to to $7 for the year. Last year, cement import cost more than $1 billion, that cost will not recur this year, they will also benefit from a full year of the removal of the expensive lease cost resulting full year’s saving from the $2 billion annual savings, resulting from owning the kilns rather than leasing. Radio Jamaica climbed to $1.15 late last week but there is not much selling at these levels.
Jamaica Stock Exchange pulled back during the week to $14.80 and seems poised to slip some more before settling down, ahead of the 2019 first quarter results that is expected to show a big increase in profit if the data of trading values are anything to go for 2019 to date. Grace Kennedy reported improved results with earnings per share of $5, helped by a big increase in investment income and foreign exchange should be priced higher than the $60.80 it last traded at.

Buying of Fontana was strong on Friday.


Buying came in for Fontana last week pushing the price the price to $4 on Friday and could move higher during the coming week. Wisynco continues to trade around the current price just below $12 and seems poised to continue to move side wards for a while. Watch Elite Diagnostic that has been steady around $3.20 but with good buying interest at the current price level but sellers are reluctant to come off the $3.40 offer price.
Buying for General Accident continues to trade around $4.50 level with no clear signs when it will the break out to a higher price level as there have been selling around these levels and that may well continue for a while.
Lasco Financial remains stuck around $4.60 price level with some selling taking place at $4.60, but buying is not strong enough to move the price in the short term. Medical Disposables bounced last week but the price may bounce around for some time in the medium term. Caribean Cream seems poised to move higher with a gap that has developed between buying and selling interest. Express Catering this one could see huge benefits from the big double digit increase in tourist arrival this year so far, with January up 11.3 percent islandwide. Stationery and Office Supplies dropped to $7 from more than $8 but there are signs of a bounce. Barita Investments announced an interim dividend of 82 cents per share, this news could well lift demand for the stock.

Profit jumps 59% at Carib Cream

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Caribbean Cream outlook.

Profit jumped 59 percent in the quarter to May, to $55 million from $35 million in 2017 from sales revenue that rose 29 percent to $412 million from $319 billion in 2017 for Caribbean Cream that trades as Kremi.
The improvement brings to an end falling profit for the past fiscal year when profit fell to $90 million from $176 million in 2017, from increased revenues and from profit of $164 million in 2016.
For the quarter, gross profit margin rose to 36 percent from 34 percent in the 2017, as input cost climbed 25 percent, compared over for the 2017 first quarter. The net effect, operating profit rose 37 percent to $147 million from $107 million.
Administrative expenses increased 25 percent to $76 million and marketing and sales expenses climbed 24 percent to $13 million. Finance cost was up to $3.4 million from $3.15 million.
Earnings per share came out at 15 cents for the quarter and should end the year around 70 cents, just slightly lower than the 80 cents forecasted at the end of the fiscal year.
According to Chairman Carol Clarke Webster and Managing Director, Christopher Clarke in their joint statement to shareholders, “these results are attributable to improved products supply as a result of greater production efficiencies, along with the introduction of a new range of novelties which are performing well in the market. In addition, we continued our sales and marketing thrusts to expand our market penetration and ‘Top of the mind” awareness of our product range.”
Gross cash flow brought in $65 million but growth in receivables, inventories, offset by payables reduced it to $44 million, in addition, fixed assets purchased for $101 million offset by net loan inflows of $65 million resulted in a cash increase of $8 million, pushing the cash and bank balances to $183 million. Shareholders’ equity stands at $693 million with borrowings at just $147 million. Net current assets ended the period at $221 million well over Payables of $134 million.
The stock traded at $4.90 on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange with a PE ratio of just 7 times 2019 earnings leaving quite some room for a good bounce from the current price. The stock is one of the TOP 10 Junior Market listings.
The company declared a dividend of 4.8 cents payable on September 21 to shareholders on record at the end of September 7. The stock will traded ex dividend on September 6.

Watch impact of interest rate cut

Lower interest rates make real assets more valuable than before, as such the biggest change to stocks this coming week may well be guided by the recent cut in interest rates, with Treasury bill rates falling and the Bank of Jamaica cutting its overnight rate by 25 basis points.
At the close of last week, Caribbean Cream closed at $6.20 and helped to return it to the TOP 10 list, replacing Lasco Financial with its price rising to $4 from $3.40.
There were no other change to the two listings at the close of the week, even as the main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange closed to week at record new high. For the coming week the cut in interest rates by Bank of Jamaica as well as a fall in the most recent Treasury rates could well positively impact prices.
The average PE ratio for the Junior Market Top stocks is at 7.5 and the PE for the main market TOP 10, ends the week at 7.3. The average PE for the overall main market trades at 13.6 and 13.3 for Junior Market, based on 2017 estimated earnings.
At the close of the week, IC Insider.com’s TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 44 percent to the average of the market for Junior Market Top stocks and it remains at 46 percent for the main market.

3 all-time highs for IC TOP 10 stocks

Berger closed at a new all-time high on Friday

The prices of several stocks listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange underwent some sharp adjustments in the past week, and especially so on Friday, the day after government disclosed revenues measures for the 2018 fiscal year.
Nothing was disclosed to send negative signals to investors, apart from some slight increase in inflation to be caused by increased taxes on a number of items, which could be partially offset by the rise in the tax threshold for individual taxpayers. If any thing the budget sends a strong message that the next twelve months should be highly positive for investments in stocks and real estate with increased fiscal surplus that have to be generated to meet the 7 percent primary surplus, that will have some deflationary impact and lead to lower interest rates near term. While the tax on cigarettes may initially be considered negative for Carreras the increase will allow the company to garner increased revenues to cover the tax and help boost profits.
The TOP 10 junior and main market stocks saw only a few movements in and out during the past week. A number of the stocks in the list hit new highs during the week. The price of ISP Finance hit a new high of $11.50 as some supply came to the market. With limited supply and the potential for strong growth in profits the stock looks like a candidate for as split before too long. Berger Paints and Pulse Investments climbed sharply to new highs, with the former trading as high as $15 during the week but settled back at $14, up from $11.51 at the close of the previous week. Pulse Investments closed the week at $8.55 and could go higher based on the limited supply on offer at $10.
The markets continue to consolidate while awaiting early signals from 2017 first quarter results. With the TOP stocks valued well below the average of the markets’ PE ratio and at a large discount to the valuation based on 2016 earnings, around 20 times, the Top 10 stocks should continue to record gains once the bull market remains intact.
In the junior market, Dolphin Cove and Jetcon Corporation returns to the top list after exiting, at the close of the previous week and with the latter falling sharply in price to close at $11.03. The two replaced Lasco Manufacturing and AMG Packaging, two that entered in the past week. These stocks are still within striking distance for the top tier listing but market activity in the coming week could change all of that.
In the main market of the Jamaica Broilersreported strong gains in its third quarter profits and should encourage investors to bid the stock up, during the week and Berger Paints seems set to move out of the list by the close of the week and Caribbean Cream and Dolphin Cove could move out of the top list during the week.

Broilers and Kremi now TOP 10ers

The past week saw much changes in the main and junior markets as prices gyrated up and down, for several of the stocks. Some of the highly valued stocks, declined in value as some investors took profit from the sharp rise since the start of 2017, for a number of stocks.
In the TOP 10 junior market selection, Caribbean Flavours (CFF) rose 24 percent to $12.44 during the week and moved out of the list, with the bid at $12.50, making space for Caribbean Cream, now occupying ninth spot. CFF sits just outside the top tier of junior market stocks and could well reenter at the end of next week. ISP Finance moved to a new high of $10.10 on the bid, having traded during the week at record high of $10 and no longer sits on the number 1 spot. Key Insurance suffered a setback with a big 2016 fourth quarter loss of $136 million, coming from increased insurance claim provisioning of $433 million for the quarter and $1 billion for the full year. Hopefully, that is now behind them, clearing the way for 2017 to deliver what the company seems capable of doing. tTech pulled back in price, to sit at a more comfortable $7, after some selling came in for the stock. Access Financial climbed to a new all-time high of $35, helped by strong nine months results and lack of supply of stocks for sale.
Scotia Investments climbed to $41.19 during the week, from $38 the previous week and exited the TOP 10 main market stocks. The move made space for Jamaica Broilers that lost value during the past week, falling from $16.25 at the start of the week, down to a more attractive $14.50, with an increased forecast of $2 earnings per share for the 2018 fiscal year starting May, this year. The week saw more interest in Radio Jamaica and JMMB Group, the latter trading at $23 on Friday, but closed lower by the end of trading, helped by net profit rising 55 percent to $2.68 billion, for the nine months to December last year. Earnings per share for the nine months came out at $1.63 and 39 cents for the December quarter.

Added cost hits Kremi’s profit

Caribbean Cream (KREMI) sales are still growing but it reported a fall in earnings of five cents for its third-quarter ending November 2016, down from 10 cents a year earlier.
The ice cream company packed on more expenses during the quarter as it secured a distributor and launched a new coffee-rum product while incurring added cost from repair of equipment.
Over nine-months, the company earnings are still up at 36 cents from 33 cents a year earlier in spite of the reduction in the third quarter.
Quarterly revenues rose 5 percent to $271 million from $258 million but the cost of sales increased, cutting gross profit down 13 per cent to $89 million. The increase in direct cost stemmed primarily from increased repairs and maintenance, some of which were unscheduled.
Revenues for the nine months rose 8.3 percent from $818 million to $886 million while profit moved to $137 million from $124 million for the 2015 period. The company is yet to increase prices for its product after an increase two years ago, but are constantly assessing the possibility of doing so, subject to feedback from the market. But Kremi seems to have lots of room to adjust prices with the Nestles’ Buckingham selling a 946 milli-litre container at $802, while Kremi sells at just $421 in the supermarket. With continue attractive growth in volumes they may be reluctant in moving prices as they gain market share.

Caribbean Cream is one of NCBCM’s recommendations

“Selling and distribution costs in the quarter increased by 38 per cent or $3.8 million as a result of increased marketing expenditure which included the launch of our new coffee rum cream in pints and quarts. We are also outsourcing the delivery of our products. We are anticipating greater efficiencies in the distribution of our products,” said management.
Sales are still going ahead of last year Christopher Clarke told IC Insider.com in response to questions posed to him. We had a series of breakdown of equipment and our two year scheduled maintenance occurred in the quarter Clarke advised.
Sales over the important Christmas period and gross profit continue to be satisfactory, but raw material cost inched up a bit Clarke indicated.
In light of the lower than expected third quarter numbers, IC insider.com revised its estimate for earnings to 55 cents for the current year ending in February and 90 cents for 2018.

Kremi’s profit fall pushes stock down

Caribbean Cream fell $1 to $7 while trading 199,000 units in response to the company posting profit of $19 million in the November quarter, down from $39 million in the same period in 2015. Profit for the year to date is up to $137 million from $124 million in 2015. More trading took place with 1,000 units at $7.50 but 300,000 units were offered at $7.45.
Notwithstanding the sharp fall of Caribbean Cream price, the junior market index rose moderately. The main market index rose as well. In trading elsewhere, Lasco Distributors had 599,260 units trading at $7, AMG Packaging hit a new high of $32.55 and Blue Power traded at a new high of $35.50.
Market activity has been moderate so far resulting in 29 securities traded at 10:45 am, compared to 26 on Thursday. A total of 11 securities advanced and 7 declined, resulting in a volume of 1,490,866 shares changing hands, carrying a value of $16,271,265, compared of 1,790,982 shares changing hands, carrying a value of $22,912,791 on Thursday. The average number of shares traded, amount to 51,409 units versus 68,884 units on Thursday.
The all Jamaica Composite Index rose 773.25 points to 211,971.25, the Jamaica Stock Exchange Market Index gained 691.43 points 193,914.56 the Jamaica Stock Exchange combined index climbed 707.44 points to 208,184.58 and the junior market index rose 6.45 points above the record close on Thursday to 2,759.63.

Jetcon & CWJ set for 2017 top spots

C&W set to be 2017 top stock from the main market.

By the end of 2017, the two top stocks on the Jamaica Stock Exchange is forecasted by IC Insider to be the 2016 listed Jetcon Corporation and previously battered Cable and Wireless that should be reporting good profits for the year.
In the just concluded week, Caribbean Cream (Kremi) and Lasco Financial that entered the IC Insider’s TOP 5 at the end of December, only spent one week in the list. Both stocks climbed during the past week with Lasco Financial moving up 18 percent to $3.67 and Caribbean Cream gained 14 percent to $8.55. Key Insurance rose 14 percent during the week and General Accident was up 7 percent.
Entering the TOP 5 for the first time, is Dolphin Cove, and returning is Jetcon Corporation at 4th and 5th spot, respectively. Investors have lost confidence in Dolphin Cove even as the company continues to produce decent results and having good prospects, with the major expansion in the tourism industry. Profit to September last year, was up 11 percent to $1.17 per share, exceeding the results for the entire 2015.
Jetcon reported in their September quarterly

Dolphin Cove moved into the IC Insider’s TOP 5 junior market stocks.

report that they “had another quarter of strong results with revenues climbing 86 percent over the September 2015 quarter, to $267 million and climbed 61 percent to $610 million for the nine months. Profit grew 275 percent to $35 million from $9 million in the September quarter, compared with the similar period in 2015 and is up 141 percent for the nine months period over the same period in 2015.” Profit for the nine months ended at $67 million and had exceeded the $40 million after tax, earned for the full year of 2015. In mid-September the company also reported that “subsequent to the Quarter, revenues continue be ahead of the same period for 2015 by approximately 70 percent,” suggesting that the final quarter should continue to reflect the robust performance seen in the earlier months. Jetcon is poised to be IC Insider’s top junior market stock for 2017, followed by ISP Finance, based on IC Insider’s forecast.
There were not much movement in the main market stocks during the week. Radio Jamaica moved out of the TOP 5, having gained in price during the week and is replaced by National Commercial Bank, at the number 5 position. The banking group is still selling cheaper than Scotia Group with earnings for the 2017 year to be released by the end of January. IC Insider is forecasting $8 per share earnings for 2017 with increased dividend payments around $3 per share, suggesting the stock has much room for growth. The number 1 main market stock is projected to be Cable & Wireless followed by Barita Investments. Last year this publication stated that Barita was the best main market stock back in September, it is now up by 93 percent since but has much more gains ahead with projected earnings of $1.75 for 2017.

Note: One of our writers is a director of two junior companies, Jetcon Corporation and Jamaican Teas. Connected parties to IC Insider.com may hold shares in companies commented on from time to time.