Former ICTOP10 stock jumps 130%

The star performer for the week was iCreate, up 132 percent and Supreme Ventures, with a 30 percent price movement in the market during the week, but several ICTOP10 stocks had some noted moves as well.

iCreate hits a low of 80 cents on Thursday.

iCreate, more than doubled, surging from the previous week’s $1.36 close to $3.16. The move coincides primarily with two acquisition announcements with little or no information given as to the cost and funding, leading to wild speculation in the stock. Supreme Ventures (SVL) stock jumped to a 52 weeks’ high of $33.41 from $24.49 at the end of the previous week. The SVL was more solidly based as the company reported solid increased profits for the March quarter as investors pushed the price sharply higher in response.
There are two changes to this week’s ICTOP10 listing. Lasco Distributors returns to the Junior Market TOP10 as Stationery and Office Supplies slipped out.  The latter rose 15 percent to close the week at $9.11. The expectations are that the company will have blowout first quarter results, helped by school opening and following a strong 2021 fourth quarter. The Main Market welcomed back Jamaica Stock Exchange share that will benefit from an upsurge in trading activity in the first quarter as Scotia Group fell out, still looking attractively priced at $35.20, with Bank of Jamaica increasing interest rates is positively impacting the results.
The Junior Market ended with three stocks rising from 8 to 15 percent. Caribbean Assurance Brokers climbed 10 percent for the week while Jetcon Corporation rose 8 percent to close at $1.40. Declining were Lasco Financial, down 8 percent and Access Financial and AMG Packaging, down 5 percent, as buying eased markedly following improved results released at the close of the market ahead of the Easter weekend. Investors seem not to be factoring in cost savings and increased efficiency that the newly installed machine brings to the business following the close of the recent quarter. With a 5 percent rise, Guardian Holdings was the biggest mover in the Main Market.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market TOP 10 ends the week at 6.2, well below the market average of 14.8, while the Junior Market PE for the Top 10 sits at 6 versus the market at 13.8. The Junior Market TOP10 is projected to gain an average of 249 percent by May 2023 and the Main Market 200 percent.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners; accordingly, the list may or may not include the best companies in the market. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings to highlight winners from the rest, allowing investors to focus on potential winning stocks and helping to remove emotional attachments to stocks that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to the end of May 2023. They are ranked in order of potential gains, based on the possible increase for each company, considering the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

Profit melts in the third quarter at Kremi

The 2022 fiscal year started with a blast for the first quarter to May with profit at $54 million after tax, doubling the $27 million in 2020, but a lot of that melted away in the third quarter to November at Caribbean Cream, which trades as Kremi, with the company reporting a loss in that quarter of $25 million down from a profit of $11 million in 2020. The loss brought profit for the nine months to $36 million compared to $85 million in the similar 2020 period.

Caribbean Cream closed at 52 weeks’ low of $3.80

Caribbean Cream did not have a good second quarter with sales rising 5.4 percent and profit falling 85 percent from $47 million to just $7 million due to what the company stated was the introduction of no movement days during the quarter that curtailed sales.
Sales revenues rose 14 percent for the third quarter to $500 million from $441 million but climbed 15 percent for the year to date, to $1.54 billion from $1.33 billion in 2020. The poor performance in the third quarter management attributes to “equipment and infrastructure challenges which we have addressed as we begin the final quarter.” In spelling out the issues Management, stated “at the beginning of the quarter the company faced unforeseen challenges in production resulting in the plant’s efficiency and capacity being impacted negatively. Since then, changes have been made in procedures, equipment and personnel to rectify the problem.”
While the company has been making headways with increased revenues, profit performance has not been consistent for some time, with the exception of the years 2014 to 2017 that enjoyed an annual increase in profits. The turbulence in profits since 2017 and the major problems in the 2021 third quarter reveal a major weakness in management that needs addressing. Such inconsistencies destroy investors’ interest in the company as well as the stock price.
Gross profit fell 13 percent in the quarter to $125 million from $143 million but rose 7 percent for the year to date, to $486 million from $453 billion in 2020.
Gross profit margin in the first nine months of the year, declined in the November quarter to 32 percent from 34 percent in the 2020 and for the quarter it dropped sharply to just 24 percent compared to 32 percent for the 2020 and that was a major contributor to the loss in the period.
Administrative expenses rose 15.5 percent to $129 million in the quarter and increased 26 percent in the nine months period to $378 million. Sales and distribution expenses increased by 8 percent in the quarter and the nine months to $16 million from $15 million in 2020 and from $43 million to $47 million, respectively. Depreciation rose from $88 million in 2020 to $95 million and is likely to rise further with the completion of the power generating plant being installed and is expected to make a major impact on the cost of utilities in the new fiscal year. Finance cost more than doubled in the quarter to $8 million from $4 million in 2020 and jumped 52 percent from $13 million to $20 million for the nine months.
Gross cash flow brought in $130 million down from $185 million in 2020. There was a release of $30 million from working capital but additions to fixed assets consumed $263 million funded by net loan inflows of $328 million. Payment of dividends consumed $26 million, more than twice the $11 million in 2020.
At the end of the period, shareholders’ equity stood at $844 million. Long term loans amounted to $654 million and short term at $11 million. Current assets ended the period at $553 million, including trade and other receivables of $82 million, inventories of $244 million and cash and bank balances of $227 million. Current liabilities ended at $140 million and net current assets at $413 million.
Earnings per share for the quarter was negative 7 cents and a profit of 10 cents for the year to date. IC Insider.com forecasts 27 cents per share for the fiscal year and $1 for 2023.
The stock traded at $5.40 on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange with a PE ratio of 20 times 2022 earnings and a PE of 5.4 times fiscal 2023 earnings. Net asset value is $2.33 with the stock selling at 2.4 times book value.

Caribbean Cream stock for the main course in 2022

Sale revenues rose 16 percent for the half year, to August 2021 $1.03 billion from $891 million but rose a mere 5.4 percent for the August quarter, to $486 million from $461 million in 2020 at ice cream maker Caribbean Cream. Management attributed the poorer second quarter performance to the several no movement days imposed by the government during the quarter.
Profit melted in the quarter by 85 percent to just $7 million from $47 million in 2020 and fell 17 percent for the six months to August, to $61 million from $74 million in 2020.
The company has not had a consistent and predictable profit outcome for some years, still, the trajectory has generally been up. In 2019 the company posted $89 million after tax that fell to $55 million in 2020 and $101 in 2021. The 2022 fiscal year profit is poised to beat that of 2021, notwithstanding the setback in the second quarter.

Caribbean Cream posted significant gains in profit in Q1.

Improvement in profit margin in the first half of the year was consistent at 41 percent, with the prior year’s six months but has increased over the 37 percent achieved for the fiscal year to February 2021. But it fell from 50 percent in the 2020 august quarter to 44 percent in 2021. The effect, operating profit fell 6 percent in the quarter to $215 million from $230 million but increased 15 percent for the year to date, to $423 million from $369 million in 2020.
Administrative expenses excluding depreciation rose 25.4 percent to $134 million in the quarter and increased 32 percent in the six months to $249 million, from $188 million in 2020. Sales and distribution expenses increased 8 percent to $30.5 million from $28 million in 2020 for the half year and were virtually flat at $15.5 million for the second quarter. Depreciation charge rose from $59 million in 2020 to $62 million in 2021 for the six months. Finance cost rose in the quarter to $6.7 million from $6 million in 2020 and $9 million to $12 million for the six months.
Gross cash flow brought in $151 million versus $160 million in 2020. Working capital growth used up all but $13 million in 2021 versus $81 million used up in 2020. Additions to fixed assets consumed $83 million for the 2021 half year versus $62 million in 2020. Loan repayment and paying $26 million dividends resulted in outflows of $114 million. At the end of December, shareholders’ equity stood at $869 million, with long term borrowings at $303 million and short term loans at $13 million. Current assets ended the period at $408 million, including trade and other receivables of $65 million, cash and bank balances of $103 million. Current liabilities ended the period at $173 million. Net current assets ended the period at $235 million.
The results in the past few years being inconsistent does not mean that the future will continue in that vein. One focus is on taking a more significant share of the market for ice cream and related products while finding avenues to cut costs. The company announced earlier this year that in collaboration with Power Factor Technologies, a power engineering services company, they embarked on a major project to install a 630 kilowatt capacity Combined Heat & Power plant fueled by LNG at the company’s premises. This project is scheduled to come on stream at the start of 2022 and is expected to generate considerable cost savings and should have a positive impact on results for 2022 onwards.
The stock closed 2021 at $5.70 with a PE ratio of 9 much lower than the average for the market around 15 and below many Junior Market stocks trading around 20 times earnings.

Big savings from Kremi’s power plant

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In collaboration with Power Factor Technologies, a power engineering services company, Caribbean Cream has embarked on a major project to install a 630 kilowatt capacity Combined Heat & Power plant fueled by LNG at the company’s premises.

Caribbean Cream post big gains in profit in Q1.

The cost of the project is estimated to be just under US$2 million. The company expects to complete installation and commissioning of the power plant before the end of 2021. “While the company will remain connected to JPS, as to ensure sufficient power supply in the event of higher energy demand, we anticipate greater efficiency and increased market reach,’ a release from the company stated.
The company incurred utility costs of $204 million in the last financial year and is set to grow with more production and expanded cold storage space. Historical data indicates that water is approximately 10 percent of the utility bill; based on this, the electricity cost is currently around $180 million.
“One electricity unit for running machines and the use of heat from electrical generation to be used to heat water and oil to do pasteurization is the maximization of energy efficiency of the plan” an engineer who ICInsider.com spoke to states, the cost savings will be significant, with the estimated savings he stated could be in the region of two thirds which ICInsider.com puts at over $120 million per annum.
The company reported a profit of $101 million for the financial year to February this year, with the first quarter to May coming out at $54 million twice the 2020 first quarter profit.

Profit doubles at Caribbean Cream for Q1

Caribbean Cream released first quarter results with revenues up a solid 28 percent to $549 million and profit doubled to $54 million after taxation of nearly $8 from $27 million after tax of $4 million with earnings of 14 cents per share.

Caribbean Cream’s Kremi product

Cost of sales rose 17 percent to $341 million from $292 million in 2020. Selling and distribution costs rose 21 percent to $15 million while administrative costs rose 41 percent to $126 million, finance costs came in at $5 million. Taxation rose to $7.7 million from $4 million in 2020.
Commenting on the results for the year in a joint statement Christopher Clarke, Chairman and Carol Clarke Webster director, operating expenses rose 35 percent or 38 million due to a number of factors, higher transport cost for an increased number of deliveries of product. “Internal reclassification of electricity from production to distribution to more fairly reflect energy usage by business segments’ salary increases and other staff related costs and the full annualized cost for the Ocho Rios depot. The directors stated that they are currently carrying out capital works at the properties for operations that will lead to reduced cost of utilities.
Cash inflows for the quarter were $98 million versus $64 million in 2020, but after working capital changes, inflows rose to $117 million, $62 million was expended on the acquisition of property and resulted in cash on hand of $264 million. Current assets stood at $453 million and current liabilities at $210 million, resulting in net current assets of $243 million. Shareholders’ equity grew to $888 million from $771 million as of May 2020 and loans amounted to  $324 million, of which $29 million is due to be repaid in the next twelve months.
IC Insider.com projects a profit of $320 million or 85 cents per share for the 2022 fiscal year and $1.50 per share for 2023. The stocks last traded at $6.90, after releasing the results, on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, a 52 weeks’ high and the highest since October 2018. At Friday’s last traded price, the stock ended the week at a PE ratio of 8.3, well below the average of 13 currently for the Junior Market.

Lasco Manufacturing hits IC TOP10

Lasco Manufacturing returns to IC TOP10 best performing stock in the past week, replacing Honey Bun closing at $6 in a week that the Junior Market climbed to a new eleven month high and posted a five percent gain for the year to date.

While the Junior Market had a new addition, the Main Market TOP10 continued with the same stocks as the week before but Grace Kennedy price rose from $68 to $73.45 with the stock moving from 5th spot to 7th.
The 2021 winner to date, Jamaican Teas lost a cent this past week after trading at a record high of $3.04 and moved down to the ninth spot this week with the price closing at $2.88 on Friday. Caribbean Cream price closed at $4.50 down from $4.95 at the end of the previous week to sit at 7th spot now. Lumber Depot one of the better Junior Market movers held at $1.95 after hitting $2.12 during the week to remain at eight position.
The Junior Market is up 4.9 percent for 2021 and is currently powered by a bullish golden cross, setting to take the market beyond 3,000 points. The release of company results in the next two weeks will play a big role in the next few weeks that will add fuel to the current rally. In this regard, based on 2020 release of results, interim financials are expected this week, from Access Financial, Barita Investments, Iron Rock Insurance, NCB Financial, the Lasco group of companies and Jamaican Teas.
The Main Market continues to slip in January, but technical indicator points to it heading towards the 460,000 points level on the All Jamaica Composite Index, in months.
The current TOP 10 report is based on earnings for 2020/21 as there are substantial gains ahead, for many stocks in the listings.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market with the potential to gain between 196 to 381 percent are Caribbean Producers followed by Elite Diagnostic and Lasco Financial. With expected gains of 135 to 315 percent, the top three Main Market stocks are, Berger Paints followed by Scotia Group and Carreras.
The local stock market’s targeted average PE ratio is 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, from now to the second quarter in 2021. The Junior and Main markets are currently trading well below the market average, indicating strong gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week, with an overall PE of 18.9 and the Junior Market 14.8, based on ICInsider.com’s projected 2020-21 earnings. The PE ratio for the Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 7.8 at just 53 percent of the market average. The Main Market TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of 9.1 or 48 percent of the PE of that market.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 181 percent and 132 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2020-21 earnings. IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2021 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely gain for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

45% gains for ICTOP15 stock

Robust gains for some stocks after less than a month of trading in 2021 have shaken up ICTOP 15 stocks forcing a number of them out or at the edge of moving out of the 2021 TOP list. Jamaican Teas now the lead stock for the year, dropped out of the Junior Market list this week, with a rise of 45 percent since the start of the year.

Jamaican Teas is the leading JSE stock for 2021 to date with a 45% increase in price. 

This brings to two, stocks that have migrated from the Junior Market TOP15 so far. Jamaica Producers fell out of the Top 15 Main Market list with the price dropping to $19.81, from $21 but Margaritaville suffered a greater fall to replace it.
Jamaican Teas one of the top 15 stocks for 2021 scaled record highs this past week as more and more investors piled into the stock since the three for one stock split in November last year. The gain also follows the directors’ report for the September quarter results that stated  “Subsequent to the year-end, overall sales increased by 47 percent in October 2020, with export sales increasing 85 percent and a 10 percent increase in domestic sales. We have good orders in hand for November and these developments, along with booking of more real estate sales, hopefully, improvement in the investment portfolio should result in a good first quarter for the financial year 2021.”
Mailpac was the first to drop out of the list and now has gains of 29 percent so far in 2021. Lumber Depot surged to $2.10 on Friday but closed at $1.95 from $1.46 last week and now sits at 15th spot on the Junior Market TOP15 for 2021, with a 25 percent gain for the year to date. Reports in the newspapers indicate bullish sales expectations from Caribbean Cement and rising prices for some construction inputs.

MailPac is the Junior Market second-best performing stock for 2021.

The news pushed investors to snap up Lumber Depot stock and drove the price much higher, since. QWI Investments is up 17 percent since the end of last year to trade at 90 cents with the net asset value rising since the latter part of last year to sit at $1.18 as gains in both local and overseas stocks continue to add to the value of the company’s portfolio. The stock is now at 14th spot on the Main Market list. A large number of shares were overhanging the market and pressuring the stock price. Once they were bought out, the supply has shrunken leaving room for the price to recover.
Caribbean Cream posted eleven percent growth in sales for the November quarter and eight percent for the nine months, with profit rising 96 percent for the nine months and a 37.5 percent increase for the third quarter. The stock is up 18 percent for the year at the close on Friday and remains at the seventh position on the 2021/22 TOP15 list.
With interest rates at low levels on government bonds and expected to remain low for a protracted period, investors are becoming more comfortable with PE of 20 times earnings or more, according to the TOP 15 rankings the above stocks still have room to gain over 90 percent from the current price for the rest of the year.

It pays to read ICInsider.com.

Profit more than doubles at Kremi

Profit after taxation at the IC Insider.com BUY RATED Caribbean Cream more than doubled, with a jump of 110 percent for the six months to August and 220 percent in the August quarter, to $74 million from $35 million in 2019 for the half-year and a rise from $14.7 million for the 2019 quarter to $47 million.
Operating revenues rose nine percent for the quarter, to $461 million from $422 million and six percent for the year to date, from $840 million in 2019 to $891 million. For the fiscal year to February, this year, revenues rose by 10 percent to $1.7 billion.
Improvement in profit margin resulted in gross profit rising faster than sales with 15 percent improvement in the first half of the year to $310 million versus $269 million in 2019 and 28 percent in the August quarter with gross profit of $171 from $133 million.
Selling, distribution and administrative expenses declined from $114 million in the 2019 quarter, to $111 million in 2020 and from $221 million in 2019, to $216 million in the six months to August. The decline in cost took place in spite of a sharp increase in depreciation charges in the current year, from $29 million to $59 million. Finance cost increased in the quarter to $6 million from $4 million in 2019 and from $10 million to $9 million for the six months period. Taxation doubled to $10.6 million for the half-year from $5 million in 2019 and moved from $2 million for the quarter to $6.7 million.
Historical results going back to the 2014 fiscal year shows steady annual growth in sales revenue but a more uneven increase in profits. The latter is partially due to the cost associated with expansion and the buying of market share that saw a less aggressive increase in selling prices for its products.
Earnings per share for the quarter came out at 12 cents and 20 cents for the six months.
Gross cash flow brought in $143 million, but growth in inventories, loan repayment offset by loan inflows and reduced payables pushed the cash funds to $152 million at the end of August, up from $58 million at the end of August 2019. With the increased profit for the year to date, shareholders’ equity now stands at $818 million, with borrowings at just $249 million. Net current assets ended the period at $191 million, including trade and other receivables of $63 million, while Current liabilities stood at $162 million.
The company paid 2.49 cents per share as the final dividend for the year ended February 29, 2020, on Friday, October 2. Net asset value is $2.16, with the stock selling at 2.3 times book value.
The results encouraged buying into the stock on Friday, with the price moving from $4.71 it last traded at on Thursday to a high of $5.25. IC Insider.com forecasts earnings of 60 cents per share for the current year that ends in February 2021 and 95 cents for 2022. The PE is currently 8.5 times the current year’s earnings based on the latest price of $5.15, the stock traded at on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange.

Depreciation melts Kremi profit

A quick look at the audited accounts for Caribbean Cream to February shows another year of disappointing results that cut across the likely outturn the November 2019 results suggested. Closer examination of the data reveals a far better picture of the company’s performance than initially meets the eye.

Caribbean Cream Kremi brand

Profit for 2020 fell sharply, but gross cash flow rose for the year in which revenues rose 10 percent as a sharp rise in depreciation charge knocked net profit down to $55 million from the $89 million reported in 2019 with earnings per share falling to 14 cents, down from 23 cents in 2019.
The depreciation charge more than doubled in the year, with an increase of $63 million, to end at $115 million as fixed assets amounting to $432 million were added during the year and were subject to be depreciated. Leased assets costing $115 million, also incurred depreciation, a different treatment than in the prior year. Although the profit fell sharply by 38.5 percent, increased depreciation resulted in gross cash inflows being $195 million compared to $165 million in 2019.
Revenues rose 10 percent from $1.55 billion to $1.7 billion for the year, with the final quarter growing at a faster pace than the 7.7 up to November. In the last quarter, revenues grew a healthy 16.2 percent to $471 million from $405 million in 2019. Unfortunately, of the $115 million depreciation charge for the year, only $53 million was booked up to November last year, resulting in $62 million booked in the final quarter.
Gross profit margin declined in the year leading to gross profit rising slower than the increase in revenues at 5 percent to $546 million and is due primarily to a 12 percent rise in raw material cost and a 76 percent increase in depreciation charges in the manufacturing operation. Overall, cost rose faster than the increase in revenues for the year with Administrative, selling and distribution expenses 15 percent for the year.
The company is in a healthy financial position at the end of February, with shareholders’ equity stood at $744 million with borrowings of $232 million. Net current assets ended the period at $74 million inclusive of trade and other receivables of $58 million, cash and bank balances of $129 million while Current liabilities closed the period at $232 million.
IC Insider.com is forecasting earning per share of 50 cents for the current fiscal year, assuming only minimal negative impact from Coronavirus. The stock traded at $2.20 on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange with a PE ratio of 4.5 times 2021 earnings.

Market Watch still on Scotia

Scotia Group January 2019 first quarter results due this week.

The main and Junior markets of the Jamaica Stock Exchange pulled back in the holiday shortened week as investors continue to digest and react to some mixed results for 2018.
Scotia Group did not released this past week as was done in 2018. The 2019 result is expected this week, this is one that is to be watched keenly and investors would be smart to keep an eye on the most critical signal that it will send for increased profits for this year. It must show meaningful  growth in the loan portfolio, to start pumping up profit. Caribbean Cement closed at $51.02 and should move higher with limited supply on offer and an analysis of the audited 2018 results suggesting that cost should decline sharply in some areas and revenues rise in the current year. IC Insider.com again revised earnings, this time to to $7 for the year. Last year, cement import cost more than $1 billion, that cost will not recur this year, they will also benefit from a full year of the removal of the expensive lease cost resulting full year’s saving from the $2 billion annual savings, resulting from owning the kilns rather than leasing. Radio Jamaica climbed to $1.15 late last week but there is not much selling at these levels.
Jamaica Stock Exchange pulled back during the week to $14.80 and seems poised to slip some more before settling down, ahead of the 2019 first quarter results that is expected to show a big increase in profit if the data of trading values are anything to go for 2019 to date. Grace Kennedy reported improved results with earnings per share of $5, helped by a big increase in investment income and foreign exchange should be priced higher than the $60.80 it last traded at.

Buying of Fontana was strong on Friday.


Buying came in for Fontana last week pushing the price the price to $4 on Friday and could move higher during the coming week. Wisynco continues to trade around the current price just below $12 and seems poised to continue to move side wards for a while. Watch Elite Diagnostic that has been steady around $3.20 but with good buying interest at the current price level but sellers are reluctant to come off the $3.40 offer price.
Buying for General Accident continues to trade around $4.50 level with no clear signs when it will the break out to a higher price level as there have been selling around these levels and that may well continue for a while.
Lasco Financial remains stuck around $4.60 price level with some selling taking place at $4.60, but buying is not strong enough to move the price in the short term. Medical Disposables bounced last week but the price may bounce around for some time in the medium term. Caribean Cream seems poised to move higher with a gap that has developed between buying and selling interest. Express Catering this one could see huge benefits from the big double digit increase in tourist arrival this year so far, with January up 11.3 percent islandwide. Stationery and Office Supplies dropped to $7 from more than $8 but there are signs of a bounce. Barita Investments announced an interim dividend of 82 cents per share, this news could well lift demand for the stock.