Jamaican stocks shooting for the stars

NCB could push JSE into breakout territory soon.

The JSE All Jamaican Composite Index raced to a record close of 300,363.16 on Friday, just around resistance level.
The market seems poised to break through the above level sooner than later.
This resistance is a short term one, going back to 2014, when the market started to move up within the channel shown in the accompanying chart. The market made a number of attempts to break out but was constrained by the upper resistance line. It is now making the second attempt to do so within a month and could finally do that, this coming week if NCB Financial makes its final attempt to really move higher in line with its fundamentals, with full year results that should at least reach $9 per share and the announcement of a big final dividend payment, just a few weeks away. Supporting the upward move is the shortage of the stock with only 33,603 units offered for sale at the close of the market on Friday. At the same time the stock trades in Trinidad at J$100.

Th all Jamaica Composite Index trades jsut at resistance and is itching to break out of the channel going back to 2014.

The market decisively broke through the long term resistance of 280,000 points, starting in Mid-September. The resistance line can be traced back to late 1994 and the then 2015 peak, signaling that a big move is ahead as there are no major resistance until the 360,000 market and then 505,000 depending on the pace of the market move.
The technical indicators point to a market that is clearly heading higher with the fundamentals lending support to the technical. The all Jamaica Composite Index has decisively broken through the long term resistance of 280,000 points, starting in Mid-September and heading to higher highs.
The fundamental factors include and growing economy, interest rates that are declining, low inflation, business and consumer confidence that are at record highs, employment on the rise, construction, tourism and the mining sectors growing and likely to have some direct impact on listed companies.

The market decisively broke through the long term resistance of 280,000 points, starting in Mid-September and now has no long term barrier to push much higher.

Bank leading is climbing well above the rate of inflation a good indicator for pickup in economic activities. Government fiscal operations are running with a surplus currently. The wayward Jamaica dollar seems to be tamed with the currency now at a slightly lower value than at the end of 2016. Importantly, there are few areas that can now compete well with the stock market.
Also supporting the rise higher is the fact that the average PE ratio of the main market is over 13, with the top half selling at 16.5, with more than half of the market priced 11 times and below, suggesting big gains ahead for underpriced stocks. The list includes big capitalized stocks such as Caribbean Cement, Grace Kennedy, Jamaica Broilers, JMMB Group, Sagicor Group, NCB Financial and Scotia Group.

Record close for majors

The JSE All Jamaican Composite Index jumped for the third day in a row rising 2,504.83 points to close at a new record close 294,165.86 on Tuesday, helped by jump in the price of NCB Financial and Scotia Group.
The JSE Index advanced by 2,282.19 points to close at a new record close of 268,018.37, while the JSE US Equities Index advanced by 8.17 points to close at 184.98. Carreras traded at a new intraday high of $14 but ended trading down at $12.60 after trading nearly 1 million shares.
The market has broken through long term resistance of 290,000 points on the All Jamaican Composite Index but it sits just above the 300,000 points level which is a short term resistance with the market being hemmed at that level and 277,000 points on the low end. (See chart showing trading taking place within the channel)
Trading on the Jamaica Stock Exchange main market closed on Tuesday with 22 securities changing hands and one in the US d0llar market, leading 8 advancing, 11 declining and 4 trading firm. Trading volume jumped sharply to 78,668,713 units valued at $1,059,742,531 with Sagicor Real Estate Fund accounting for 76.5 million units, compared to 13,618,629 units valued at $432,506,372 trading on Monday. In the US dollar market trading accounted for 48,005 units valued at US$11,484, bringing the total trades in the markets to $1,061,223,932.
Trading ended with an average of 3,575,851 units for an average of $48,170,115 in contrast to 504,394 units for an average of $16,018,755 on Monday. The average volume for the month to date is 2,040,122 units valued at $32,094,435. In contrast, September closed with average of 283,480 units valued at $3,630,990 for each security traded.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading in the main and US dollar markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows a very strong 7 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices, up from 7 on Monday and 2 with lower offers, compared to 4 on Monday.

JSE main stocks eke out gains – Wednesday

Trading on the Main Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange closed on Wednesday with 25 securities changing hands, the same as on Tuesday and 2 trading in the US dollar market, leading to 11 advancing, 8 declining and 8 traded firm.
The market recorded modest gains in the two main indices, with the All Jamaica Composite Index rose 106.77 points to close at 282,019.56, the JSE Market Index inched 97.28 points to 256,951.71. The JSE US dollar market index slipped 0.73 points to 187.26.
Trading ended with 4,718,872 units valued at 99,127,989 with an average of 188,755 units for an average of $3,965,120 compared to 4,433,242 units valued at 88,443,093 on Tuesday, with an average of 177,330 units at an average of $3,537,724. The average volume and value for the month to date amounts to $273,638 units valued at $2,921,507 compared to 278,353 units valued at $2,866,580, previously. In contrast, August closed with average of 184,094 units with an average of $4,336,090, for each security traded. Trading in the US dollar market accounted for 85,233 units at a value of US$21,022 and brought total trades in both markets to JS$101,860,817.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading in the main and US dollar markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 7 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 3 with lower offers.
NCB Financial listed a US dollar bond with a coupon rate of 6 percent, but no trades were executed.

NCB Capital stock talk

NCB Capital Markets (NCBCM) recommends that investors maintain focus on stocks of companies with diversified revenue streams by operations, geography and currency in its latest recommendations on the Jamaican stock market.
According to the brokerage house, main market companies tend to have more mature operations, stronger fundamentals and are likely to pay more attractive dividends for investors heavily dependent on cash flows. This should form the core of a moderate investor’s equity portfolio. Investors with the appropriate risk appetite should also take a closer look at some Junior Market stocks given that the potential for growth is greater than their main market counterparts. More aggressive investors should also consider taking an active approach to stock market investing by crystalizing gains on stocks that are trading above their fair value estimates, with a view to re-enter at more favourable prices in the near term.

Jamaica Broilers is a recommended buy by NCBCM

Interestingly, there are only three stocks recommended as buys, with six stocks placed on the sell list.
NCBCM recommends investors buy Jamaica Broiler with a forward price of $24, JMMB Group with a forward price of $23.80 and PanJam Investment with a forward price of $43.63.
The brokerage house is recommending selling Caribbean Cement, based on their assessment that the fair value price for the cement producer is $29.92 which is below the current price of $29.99, also on the sell list is Honey Bun, that they are saying that the PE ratio and price to book multiples for Junior Market manufacturing companies were used to derive a fair value estimate of HONBUN with a forward price of $3.70. Jamaica Producers is on the sell list as well with a forward price of $12.99 based on a price to book valuation, Mayberry Investments’ forward price is put at $3.95 and therefore a sell NCBCM says. The fair value of Scotia Group is estimated at $46.48, which is below the current price. The projected dividend yield of 3.5% is not sufficient to offset expected capital loss the NCB Financial brokerage arm says.

Scotiabank is a recommended sell by NCBCM

Stocks that are recommended as holds are Carreras based on the justified P/E and Dividend Discount Model resulted in valuation for Carreras up to $113.91 per share. Kingston Wharves forward price is $29.24, close to existing market price and Sagicor Group with fair value estimate of $34.21.
Ratings Definitions| BUY: The company has sound or improving fundamentals that should allow it to outperform the broader market over the next 12 months. The risk factors to achieving price targets are minimal.
HOLD: We believe the stock is fairly valued at the current price. The company may have issues affecting fundamentals that could take some time to resolve. The risk factors to achieving price targets are moderate. Some volatility is expected.
SELL: The stock is overpriced relative to the soundness of the company’s fundamentals and long-term prospects or the stock is fully priced.

Major changes to TOP 10 stocks

Barita jumps TOP 10 with more than 200% gain since September 2016

Investors pushed the price of Barita Investments to $9.40 during the week and drove newly listed Stationery and Office Supplies to $5.10 after it was listed on Thursday moving both out of the top flight of stocks. In addition, four others changed places with new listings.
Barita entered the list when we started the TOP 5 back in September last year, at $3.11 and has gained more than 200 percent since then while SOS is up 154 percent from its IPO price. Both stocks have more room for growth.
tTech reported lower profit in the second quarter to June with lower revenues resulting in a lower earnings forecast for 2017 and dropped out of the top list. CAC 2000 having slipped out of the listing the prior week returned this past week and was joined by Dolphin Cove to replace the two that exited the listing.
Main market stock, Berger Paints fell during the week from $19 to trade at $16 and moved back into the listing. Moving in are Grace Kennedy, Mayberry Investments and PanJam Investment. Stocks graduating from the top flight are Seprod as the price rose during the week to $33.33 from $30, Sagicor Group moving from $31.50 to $34.35 and Salada Foods that closed at $9.50, up from $9.
The average PE ratio for the Junior Market Top stocks is at 7.6 and the PE for the main market TOP 10, ends the week at 7.2. The average PE for the overall main market trades at 13.2 and 12.9 for Junior Market, based on 2017 estimated earnings.
At the close of the week, IC Insider.com’s TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 41 percent to the average of the market for Junior Market Top stocks and 46 percent for the main market.

Cable & Wireless leads stocks to watch

Cable & Wireless Head quarters.

Cable & Wireless is possibly the main stock to watch for the coming week with the company returning to profitability in the June quarter.
The company lost several billion dollars for many years but posted a profit of $222 million in the latest quarter on an 11 percent surge in revenues. Subsequent to the close of the quarter, Cable and Wireless increased rates on a series of services that should add to revenues and profits in the coming quarters. Profit for the full year to December should end positively, thus wiping out the $311 million loss for the first half of the year after tax and a lower pretax loss of just $199 million. The recent turn around in the fortune of the company is likely to be a big surprise to many investors and will help move the stock price much higher than the $1.07 it closed at, on Friday.
Other stocks that investors should keep an eye on this week include, Barita Investments with an announced take over offer on the table, JMMB Group, Stationery & Office Supplies that just listed and selling below potential, NCB Financial with limited supply, Jetcon Corporation with profit doubling for the half year leading to strong buying in the past week and recently listed Express Catering with demand to buy 765,925 shares at $5.50.

Will Barita jump TOP 10?

Barita closed at $8 on Friday.


News emerged during the past week that directors at Barita Investments was considering a bid to purchase the majority of its shares.
Investors responded immediately by removing just about all offers that were posted on the trading platform of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, the stock climbed to $8 and only require a small increase to leave the top list.
Main market Berger Paints rose during the week from $18 to trade at $19 and was edged out of the top list by Pulse Investments that fell sharply in price to close with a bid of $1.75 after the price fell during the week.
Recent TOP 10 billing, NCB Financial Group that recently fell out of the top list closed the week at $94.99 in response to continued demand flowing from strong increase in nine months profit against a back drop of minimal selling of the stock.
Stationery and Office Supplies (SOS) will start trading on Wednesday, August 9, when the price is expected to surge, based on the heavy over subscription at the initial public offering, with more than 1,200 applications for shares. This stock could be out of the top listing very soon.
Other junior market stocks activity, CAC 2000 fell out of the top listing and Lasco Manufacturing returned to the top listing.
The average PE ratio for the Junior Market Top stocks is at 6.7 and the PE for the main market TOP 10, ends the week at 7.4. The average PE for the overall main market trades at 13.3 and 12 for Junior Market, based on 2017 estimated earnings.
At the close of the week, IC Insider.com’s TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 44 percent to the average of the market, leaving stocks with room for growth in the months ahead.
Stocks to watch|The stocks that investors should keep an eye on this week include, Barita Investments, JMMB Group, Stationery & Office Supplies, NCB Financial, Jetcon Corporation.

NCB & Express Catering drop out

NCB Financial Group jumped to $80 on Friday & exited the top 10.

Shares of Express Catering were in strong demand during the week, with price closing at $5.20 for gains of 247 percent from the initial public issue price of $1.50. At the close of the week the stock was out of the TOP 10 and so was NCB Financial Group with the price climbing to a record $80, at the close on Friday. 
Stationery and Office Supplies (SOS) will not start trading until August 9, when it is expected to surge in price based on the heavy over subscription of 3.5 times oversubscribed with more than 1,200 applications.
Trading in the past week returned to a bullish mood, with the Jamaica Stock Exchange main market index hitting new highs on Thursday and Friday. The trend is expected to continue this coming week as investors react to some new results.
Caribbean Flavours and CAC 2000 that fell out of the top listing at the end of the prior week return this week with the exit of Express Catering , Lasco Financial that rose to $3.80 and Caribbean Cream that returned to $7.
The only movement in and out of the TOP 10 in the main market were Salada Foods coming in as NCB dropped out with gains in the price in the past week.
The average PE ratio for the Junior Market Top stocks is down at 7 with SOS in at a PE of 5 times 2017 earnings. The PE for the main market TOP 10, holds at 7.3. The average PE for the overall main market, remains at 13 and 12 for Junior Market, based on 2017 estimated earnings.
At the close of the week, IC Insider.com’s TOP 10 Junior Market stocks now trade at an average discount of 42 percent to the Junior Market average, while those in the main market are trading at a 44 percent discount, to the average of the market, leaving stocks with room for growth in the months ahead.
NCB Financial and Express Catering the two stocks IC Insider.com listed as our market watch make gains during the past week. NCB has clearly broken out from a triangle of consolidation and seems to be heading higher. Express Catering could possibly rise higher but appears to be fully valued at a PE of 20 currently.

Express Catering enters TOP 10

Ian Dear, Managing Director of Express Catering

Trading started in Express Catering shares on Friday on the Junior Market, with the stock enjoying strong demand up to the $3 level. New information obtained this past week from the prospectus resulted in the earnings for this company being upgraded and it is included in the TOP stocks.
Importantly for Express Catering, the prospectus states that effective at the end on of May, the contract that gave rise to the payment of management fees was cancelled. The amount, the equivalent to 9 percent of revenues or roughly US$1.4 million will no longer be paid and should go towards boosting the bottom-line, and should result in the earnings per share around J$0.26 cents for 2018 fiscal year. The change means it is now a part of the TOP 10 Junior Market stocks. With the strong demand for the stock, it should spend just a short time in the list. The same out turn seems likely for Stationery and Office Supplies (SOS) once it starts to trade, with the IPO being nearly 4 times oversubscribed with more than 1,000 applications received for the 52 million shares.
With the initial public offers now out of the way, trading in the secondary markets saw more energy in the past week than for the previous two, with some stocks that were weak before, finding buying at the lower prices.
ISP Finance price rose to $14 after falling to $11 during the past week, but big declines in the prices of AMG Packaging and Caribbean Cream pushed out ISP as well Caribbean Flavours and CAC 2000 out of the top listing.
The only movement in and out of the TOP 10 in the main market were Sagicor Group that spent just one week a short while ago, coming back, as Cable & Wireless dropped out with a big gain in the price in the past week of 17.5 percent.
The average PE ratio for the Junior Market Top stocks is down at 6.6 with SOS in at a PE of 5 times 2017 earnings. The PE for the main market TOP 10, holds at 6.7. The average PE for the overall main market, remains at 13 and 12 for Junior Market, based on 2017 estimated earnings.
At the close of the week, IC Insider.com’s TOP 10 Junior Market stocks now trade at an average discount of 45 percent to the Junior Market average, while those in the main market are trading at a 49 percent discount, to the average of the market, leaving stocks with room for growth in the months ahead.
Last week IC Insider indicated that two stocks to watch were Cable & Wireless with the price around support level and NCB Financial with very limited number of stocks currently being offered. Both stocks bounced with the former rising over 17 percent to 94 cents and NCB rising to $75 from $71.50. Active supply for NCB is very low currently and technical chart suggests a big break out for it very soon. NCB is to be watched for a possible break towards $80 and Express Catering to well over $3.

ISP Finance and C&W back in TOP 10

Pull back in the prices of several Junior Market stocks, resulted in changes in the TOP 10 junior stocks at the close of the week. The changes took place against the back ground of an unprecedented 5 issues of new shares around the same time in the market.
Some investors are of the view the public issue of shares all coming around the same time, contributed to the softness in the market over the past two weeks.
On Wednesday, this week, IC Insider.com BUY RATED Stationery and Office Supplies (SOS opens to the public for purchase, at a priced of $2 and is expected to close on the same day it opens. Express Catering IPO opened and close last week Wednesday with more than 1,000 applications received.
ISP Finance price dropped to $13.56 during the past week to re-enter the Top 10. Returning back to the TOP 10 are Caribbean Flavours and Lasco Distributors
Moving out of the top list are AMG Packaging, Lasco Manufacturing with the price rising to $4.70 from $4.30 at the close of the previous week and tTech with the price rising 50 cents to a record $10.
In the main market Sagicor Group spent just one week in the top listing with the price moving from$30 at the end of the previous week to end at $33 and is replaced by Cable & Wireless with the price down under $1 at 80 cents, support for the stock is around 75 cents, hence it could bounce back from these levels soon.

NCB Financial Group is worth watching keenly in the days and weeks ahead.

Market movement continues to be constrained by near term resistance points, it does not prevent stocks from moving in either direction, but it will tend to keep prices overall from big movements upwards.
The average PE ratio for the Junior Market Top stocks is down at 6.8 with SOS in at a PE of 5 times 2017 earnings. The PE for the main market holds at 6.7. The average PE for the overall main market, remains at 13 and 12 for Junior Market, based on 2017 estimated earnings.
At the close of the week, IC Insider.com’s TOP 10 Junior Market stocks now trade at an average discount of 43 percent to the Junior Market average, while those in the main market are trading at a 49 percent discount, to the average of the market, leaving stocks with room for growth in the months ahead in the market.
Two stocks to watch are Cable & Wireless with the price around support level and NCB Financial with very limited number of stocks currently being offered.