4 new additions to IC TOP 10

The bullishness continued on Jamaica Stock Market during the past week with the main market reaching new record level on Thursday and the Junior Market closing at the highest level since November 3, last year.
Several companies released results during the week, some showed strong gains and others were in line with the prior year’s period or slightly below and some were in line with expectations, investors reacted accordingly. The chronic shortage of many of the stocks continue to put upward pressure on prices. Following the release of results some companies profit forecast were adjusted. This resulted in Radio Jamaica and Palace Amusement falling from the TOP 10. Palace forecast for 2019 fiscal year is now placed at $100 per share up from earnings of $96 for 2018 including gain on sale of property. Key Insurance reported another quarter of losses and full year’s earnings were revised downwards putting it outside the top listing. Indies Pharma, the other Junior Market stock to jump ship, rose to $2.36 after listing earlier in the week and is up 57 percent from the IPO price of $1.50.
Paramount Trading fell to $2.10 on low volume to jump into the list and Lasco Distributors fell to $3.85 climbed in as well. Paramount is now in a new fiscal year and is expected to record much improved results over the outturn for the year to May as the company enjoys the benefits of increased revenues and profit from the two new ventures started earlier this year in chlorine, bleach and manufacturing of lubricants. Lasco reported improved results of the year to March with the first quarter to June this year recording improvement over 2017 an indication for increased sales and profit in 2019.
Existing TOP 10 stock, Caribbean Cement continues to undergo wild swings in prices and traded as high as $56 during the past week but closed the week at $47.50, on Friday as supply has virtually dried up, not surprising with the company cutting finance cost and reports of several projects slated to come on stream later this year. Berger Paints moved down from $21 to $18 during the past week as direct cost rose sharply by 46 percent in the June quarter to negate a 35 percent rise in revenues but profit after tax rose 13 percent over 2017.
Salada Foods was recently in the Top 10 but moved out based on increased price, reenters with a fall in price to $17 and benefits from improved nine months’ results suggesting earnings of $2 per share. Management expressed concerns as to the impact that the imposition of a cess on coffee could have on sales. Sygnus Credit Investment is a new entrance to the main market and enters as the price fell sharply during the week to $10, but closed with the bid at $10.50.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks averages 7.9 compared to an average PE for the overall market of 12.5, based on 2018 estimated earnings and the main market PE stands at 8 for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 13, a good indicator of the level of undervaluation of these stocks, currently. Work done by IC Insider.com suggest that the PE ratio is likely to end around 16 or 17 times earnings by year end, as investors continue to gradually upgrade the multiple they are prepared to pay for stocks, which would lift prices sharply over the next several months from current levels. In addition, the latest Treasury bill offer, saw rates dropping to 1.7 percent on the 91 days instrument and 1.88 percent on the 182 days instrument. These rates suggest more funds will be going into stocks as liquidity remains high.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 37 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 39 percent to the market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.

Profit results could ignite market

There is little doubt that the summer rally is on for Jamaica stocks and is being helped by some good results for a number of the companies. Release of results over the next two days could be a huge catalyst for the market in the days ahead.
Last week a number of stocks traded at 52 weeks’ highs or historical highs. Profit results are expected to flood the market over the next two days and could have a big impact on prices.
Last week a number of on the Watch list traded at record high levels and more of that is expected this week.
Stocks with scarce supplies and could spring surprises include Grace Kennedy, NCB Financial, Berger Paints, Caribbean Cement, Kingston Wharves, PanJam Investment, Sagicor Group, Salada Foods, Seprod and Scotia Group. The main market is not the only segment with limited supplies. The Junior Market supplies continue to be limited for many of the listings. The list includes, Blue Power, Caribbean Flavours, Cargo Handlers, Caribbean Producers, Derrimon Trading, Express Catering, General Accident,Caribbean Cream, Medical Disposables and Stationery and Office Supplies.
The main market continues to be steered higher by an upward sloping support line as well the 45 and 125 day moving averages, lending support just below the index and the Junior Market that is at a 9 months’ high, is being steered by an upward rising long-term support line and the start of a golden cross. The golden cross is a very bullish long-term signal.

Medical Disposables out AMG in TOP 10

The main market of Jamaica Stock Market indices chalked up more records last and closed the week at another record high on Friday and the Junior Market closed at a 9 months’ high as the markets continue the usual summer bounce.
A number of positive results and chronic shortage of many of the stocks are helping in putting upward pressure on prices resulting in three changes to the IC TOP 10 at the end of the week.
Medical Disposables rose to $6.40 at the end of the week and was the sole stock moving out of the TOP 10 and AMG Packaging returned to the TOP 10. Caribbean Cement traded as high as $50 on Friday as supply has virtually dried up, not surprising with the company cutting finance cost and reports of several projects slated to come on stream later this year. Berger Paints also moved higher to $21 on Friday and remains scarce. Iron Rock jumped to a new high of $4.07 on Friday as the company shows promise of making a profit sooner than later.
The coming days will see a flood of quarterly results be released and could impact the prices of stocks.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks averages 7.9 compared to an average PE for the overall market of 12, based on 2018 estimated earnings and the main market PE stands at 8.2 for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 13, a good indicator of the level of undervaluation of these stocks. Work done by IC Insider.com suggest that the PE ratio is likely to end around 16 times earnings by year as investors continue to gradually upgrade the multiple they are prepared to pay for stocks, which would lift prices sharply over the next several months from current levels.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 34 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 39 percent to the market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.

Grace set to make big price leap

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Grace Kennedy traded at a 52 weeks’ high on JSE on Friday..

The Jamaica stock market is at an interesting stage, with supply of many stocks offered for sale, getting more scarce by the day, while interest rates are at their lowest levels in Jamaica’s history but are most are valued  at levels when interest rates were in the teens.
The main market has gained 8,387.30 points in July, and is now a record high as of Friday with gains of 9,486.57 since the start of July, thus mirroring the start of the usual summer rally on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, while the Junior Market continues to bounce and is now at a 9 months’ high.
Liquidity is very high and forcing interest rates lower as investors try to place funds on hands. As liquidity rise in the market supply of stocks is on the decline. Some of stock with scarce supplies include Grace Kennedy that has just one offer priced at $80 when the market closed on Friday, NCB Financial that is now trading over $100 is not far behind with limited offers. It has been years that the supply of Grace stock has been this low and suggest a big upward price move.

The All Jamaica Composite index now braking out of a narrow upward sloping channel going back to November 2017.

Berger Paints, Caribbean Cement, JMMB Group, Kingston Wharves, PanJam Investment, Sagicor Group, Seprod and Scotia Group with only 362,000 units on offer are amongst some that have very limited supplies being offered for sale on the market. But the main market is not the only segment with limited supplies.Over in the Junior market where demand is not as great as in 2017, supplies are limited for many of the listings. The list includes, Blue Power, Caribbean Flavours, Cargo Handlers, Derrimon Trading, Express Catering, Caribbean Cream, Medical Disposables and Stationery and Office Supplies. Caribbean Producers closed trading at $5.80 at the end of the previous week and ended this past week at $6.22 and may well go higher this coming week as it closed with a bid at $6.20. A number of these stocks could lead the break out of the markets in a big way when investors on a whole come to the realization that with interest rates now below 2 percent,

Medical Disposables profit jumps 49 percent before foreign exchange loss in Q1.

that the old accepted PE ratio of 10 being reasonable to value stocks, is no longer accepted and that ratios of 20 to 30 will become the norm going forward. Investors only need to look at stocks in in Trinidad and Tobago where PEs have been in the 20 level for years to understand where we will be heading in the not too distant future.
The main market continues to be steered higher by an upward sloping support line as well the 45 and 125 day moving averages, lending support just below the index and the Junior Market that is at a 9 month high, is being steered by an upward rising long term support line and the start of a golden cross.

Medical Disposables back in IC TOP 10

Medical Disposables back in IC TOP 10

The main market of Jamaica Stock Exchange ended at a record close on Friday and the Junior Market closed at a 9 months’ high as the markets keep moving higher resulting changes to the IC TOP 10.
At the close on Friday, Proven Investments ended at 19 US cents and fell out of the top list and is replaced by Victoria Mutual Investments. Jetcon Corporation and Paramount Trading dropped out of the top flight, to be replaced by Fosrich Group and Medical Disposables. IC insider.com lowered profit forecast for Paramount with the company showing only a small profit of less than a million dollars in the fourth quarter compared to nearly $11 million in 2017 after gross profit rose 29 percent or $28 million. Jetcon squeezed out by price changes, elsewhere Medical Disposables rose to $5.80 but made it back in the list with strong profit out turn for the first quarter to June and an upgrade of earnings for the full year, of 65 cents per share from 60 cents.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks averages 7.4 compared to an average PE for the overall market of 12, based on 2018 estimated earnings and the main market PE stands at 8 for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 13, a good indicator of the level of undervaluation of these stocks.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 38 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 40 percent to the market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.

NCB jumps out Indies in IC TOP 10

The main market of Jamaica Stock Market ended at a record close on Friday with NCB Financial jumping $3.01 to $100.01 as Jamaica’s largest financial group dropped out of the IC Insider.com’ Top 10 main market stock list.
NCB price jumped on Friday, as investors responded positively to the group’s June results and was replaced by Carreras at 9th position. NCB remains an excellent stock to hold for long term growth and increased dividends. In the Junior market Caribbean Producers rose to $5.80 and Medical Disposables to $5.51 to ease out of the top listing and were replaced by recent Initial Public Offer, Indies Pharma at number 9 and Jetcon at 10.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks averages 7.4 compared to an average PE for the overall market of 12, based on 2018 estimated earnings and the main market PE stands at 7.8 for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 13, a good indicator of the level of undervaluation of these stocks.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 37 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 40 percent to the market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.

Stocks to Watch this week

The main market pulled back on but blasted to a new intraday high on Friday confirming that the bull run is in its early stages, while the Junior Market continues to bounce around.
The main market has gained nearly 3,600 points for July, thus mirroring the start of the usual summer rally on the Jamaica Stock Exchange.
The main market is being steered higher by an upward sloping support line as well the 45 and 125 day moving averages, lending support just below the index and the Junior Market is being steered by an upward rising long term support line and the start of a golden cross.
The market saw many developments that confirm that a bull market is in place with all three initial public offers closing ahead of the scheduled close.
The past week saw a few strong results being posted and more are expected this week that should include NCB Financial and Proven Investments. Barita Investments got the offer to buy 75% of the shares at $9.20 each. IC Insider.com is of the view that the stock is worth much more with good prospects to build on the strong foundation that it has. Jamaican Stock Exchange released strong gains in profit and announced a dividend as well, and could benefit from both, with eyes focused on even greater improvement in 2019. Caribbean Cement stock is another to watch, with the annual general meeting on this week and results for the June quarter due. Margaritaville had a bid of 16.9 cents versus a last sale of 15 cents and is being offered at 18 cents to sell 43,795 units, Proven Investments had a bid of 16 cents versus a last sale of 15 cents and is being offered at 18.5 cents to sell 1,050 units.
Medical Disposables came in for strong demand in the past week with the price going as high as $5.50. Trading during the week removed supplies that was overhanging the market leaving little supply at the end of the week and could go higher in the coming week. Caribbean Cream after posting a 59 percent increase in profit for the 2019 first quarter saw no more continuation of the demand that lifted the price into the $6 region but could well make some increased interest this week.

2 new IC TOP 10 listings

This weeks’ review comes against the back drop of the main market hitting a record high on Friday in the morning session and the Junior market continuing to eke out modest gains.
Unlike last week when there are several changes to the TOP stocks, there are only two new additions this week. Victoria Mutual Investments and Jamaican Teas are out of the TOP 10 with Berger Paints that fell in price to $18.76 and Caribbean Cream are back in the TOP 10 lists.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.
The past week saw a few results being posted and more are expected this week, including NCB Financial and Proven Investments that entered the TOP 10 last week, both are expected to report positive gains with NCB continuing from increases seen up to the second quarter and Proven that President, Christopher Williams informed IC Insider.com is performing well in all divisions, see Collapse of the JSE US market.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks averages 7.4 compared to an average PE for the overall market of 11.8, based on 2018 estimated earnings and the main market PE stands at 7.5 for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 12.5, this is a good indication of the level of undervaluation of these stocks.
IC Insider.com last week stated that there are warning signs of a tsunami that is on the way for the market. During last week one more sign came to the fore with a sharp drop in Treasury bill rates again, this coupled with scarcity of supply for many stocks. Investors seem to be going about their business as if prices will remain around current levels for a prolonged period. Late comers to buying stocks who try to join the party will find get stocks but at a much higher prices as the year rolls on and that is confirmed by technical indicators in both the Main and Junior markets.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 37 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 40 percent to the market.

JSE retreats from Friday’s record high

The main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange surged to new record high during trading in the morning sessions hitting a high of 340, 893.72 points on the all Jamaica Index while the JSE index rose to a record high of 310,624.04 but the market pulled back to close just below the record closing high reached on Thursday last week.
Trading in the main market ended with 2,441,530 units valued $54,632,965 compared to 2,808,119 units valued $38,691,449 on Thursday.
At the close, the All Jamaican Composite Index advanced by 878.93 points to 339,155.12, sitting just 692.75 points below the record close on last week Thursday and the JSE Index climbed 800.80 points to 309,008.59, just 631.20 points away from the record close reached last week.
Market activities resulted in 27 securities trading in the main market, compared to 26 securities trading on Thursday in the main and US dollar markets. At the end of trading, the prices of 7 stocks advanced, 10 declined and 10 closed unchanged.
The day’s volume was led by, Carreras with 25.27 percent of trading in an exchange of 616,888 shares, followed by Ciboney Group with 548,381 units, accounting for 22.46 percent of the day’s volume and NCB Financial Group with 276,402 shares and 11.32 percent of the day’s volume.
Stocks with major price changes are, Berger Paints fell 74 cents to $18.76 with 16,154 trading, Caribbean Cement gained $2 to finish at $42, exchanging 5,050 shares, Jamaica Broilers dropped $1.08 to $25.42, with 65,410 stock units trading, Kingston Wharves fell 85 cents and ended at $50, trading 14,127 shares, NCB Financial dropped $2.99 to $95 trading 276,402 units. Pulse Investments fell 40 cents and settled at $3, in trading 29,611 units, Sagicor Real Estate Fund rose 40 cents and closed at $14.50, exchanging 5,200 shares and Scotia Group declined 90 cents to $50.10, with 248,215 units.
Trading resulted in an average of 90,427 units valued at an average of $2,023,443 for each security traded. In contrast to 122,092 units for an average of $1,682,237 on Thursday. The average volume and value for the month to date amounts 146,947 units valued at $2,885,584 compared to 151,016 units valued at $2,952,092 on Thursday. June closed with an average of 250,168 shares with a value of $5,895,281, for each security traded.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 6 stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and 3 closing with lower offers.

Stocks to Watch this week

Caribbean Cream’s Kremi product

There are clear signs that the usual summer rally has started on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, with the main market hitting new highs on all five trading days during the past week, and ending at record closing highs on all, except on Friday.
The main market entered record territory, minutes after opening on Friday with the All Jamaican Composite Index climbing 1,082.40 points to an intraday record of 340,315.50 and the JSE Index rising 986.19 points to a record 310,065.85. The market is being steered higher by an upward sloping support line as well the 45 and 125 day moving averages, lending support just below the index for the main market and the Junior Market is being steered by an upward rising long term support line.
The market saw many developments that confirm that a bull market is in place. Mayberry Jamaican Equities initial public offer, opened and closed on Monday, having been oversubscribed and Indies Pharma public offer opened on Thursday and closed on Friday but Stanley Motta remains opened after more than a week since the offer opened.
Elsewhere in the secondary market, Jamaica Broilers traded briefly at a record high of $33, others trading at 52 weeks’ high in the main market are Kingston Wharves trading at $52.03, PanJam Investment at $58.99 and Pulse Investments trading up to $3.50, but 138 Student Living, having fallen to a 52 weeks’ low of $4.40 the previous week fell even lower in this past week to $3.85,
Former TOP 10 Junior Market listing, Derrimon Trading ordinary share, hit at an all-time high of $23 during the week. Current TOP 10 listing, CAC2000 hit a new record high of $10 as well as C2W Music climbed to $1.60, while recently listed Everything Fresh traded at an all-time low of $1.95 since listing in June. US dollar market listings, Margaritaville and Proven Investments both traded at a 52 weeks’ lows during the week as investors seem to lose interest in the US dollar listed shares.
The main market is exhibiting strong bullish signals while the Junior Market seems more subdued apparently waiting on the release of results.

Stationery & Office Supplies new book making operation.

Against this back drop there could be some interesting developments in in the market in the coming days. Based on demand and supply of stocks and trading activities last week the stocks worth watching this week include, Caribbean Cream that jumped sharply on Friday after the company reported improve first quarter results, NCB Financial pulled back in the past week but may be constrained by the $100 mark until the group reports third quarter results by month end. PanJam Investment could move higher again, as there continues to be buying but there is very limited supply of the stock on offer. Radio Jamaica that came for increased buying recently seems to be seeing supplies coming to market at $1.20 or higher and could get more attention as the weeks roll on. Others worth watching include Caribbean Cement, Berger Paints with little selling, Grace Kennedy for which there is also limited supply. In the Junior market, some demand exists for Derrimon Trading, with a resolution to be voted on at the upcoming AGM to split each share into 10 units, but the price may be stuck around the $20-23 range with the PE more than 20 times 2018 earnings compared to the market average of 11.4. Stationery and Office Supplies continues to trade around the $8 mark, with limited supply on offer, the stock is worth watching but may require second quarter results to kick the price to another level. With the directors stating that they have discussed the possibility of a stock split in the past, the stock can be expected to be one to see a split probably by the next AGM, investors should be stock piling this one with the price being undervalued. Jamaican Teas pulled back in the past week from $5.50 to $5 this week, but with limited stocks being offered for sale, is worth watching. Wisynco seems to have found support just above $9 and is one to watch over the next few weeks as the release of full year result nears, the Jamaican Stock Exchange is another to be watched along with JMMB Group and Seprod.