Investment 2021 – Recovery for JSE markets

The JSE Junior and Main Markets retreated in 2020, due mainly to the impact of the COVID-19 on the economy and businesses. Both markets, however, began to struggle in the final quarter of 2019 as a number of new IPOs were either issued or scheduled to be issued, thereby sapping some of the liquidity from the market.
The markets may have been due for a correction anyway, based on their history. Prior to this period, the Main Market had only risen on two other occasions equalling or exceeding six years. Surprisingly, the market went on to move higher during a period of economic turbulence, from 1978 to 1987, nine years of annual gains and again between 1996 and 2004 for another nine-year spell. On the other hand, the Junior Market, for the first time, recorded five consecutive years of increases from 2015 to 2019.
In reality, the market closed higher in each year from 2014 to 2019 for six years’ unbroken run. The JSE Main Market fell 33 percent to the low in March and the Junior Market by 37 percent.  Since then, they have rebounded but not enough to take them out of the negative territory for the year.
The number of new IPOs coming to market in the past three years pulled liquidity from the Junior Market, which depends extensively on the involvement of individual investors. In 2018 and 2019, the Junior Market under-performed the Main Market, measured by way of the market indices. In 2020, both markets were down, with the Junior Market just edging out the Main Market index with a lower decline of 21 percent versus 22.6 percent. Even though 2020 was not a great year, some investors made money by buying some stocks at rock bottom prices when many investors were dumping.
The decline in the market gives some investors breathing space from the six years’ bull market and opportunities to pick up stocks at better valuations or prices than for the period up to March 2020.
The markets have been recovering since they bottomed in March with the Junior Market up 30 percent and the Main Market 16.6 percent. There are strong signals pointing to an upward move for both markets as they transitioned from a consolidating phase when investors were assessing developments in the economy and the stock market.  The Golden cross technical signal for the Junior Market points to that market heading back above the 3,000 points level within months. The Main Market is undergoing a bullish signal with short term moving average line crossing over the medium-term Moving Average a bullish signal. The Main Market is within an ascending channel that points to the All Jamaican index heading towards the 460,000 points range.
Market valuations are reasonable with the PE ratios based on 2020 earnings at 14.7 times for the Junior Market and 17 for the Main Market, a few stocks are priced higher than the average, with many prices well below. Based on 2021 earnings, the PE ratio is an average of 9.2 for Junior Market stocks and 14.7 for the Main Market. The large difference is an indication as to where the best values can be found for investors. Adequate liquidity can be a problem for the Junior Market and many investors need to take a longer-term view in some of these companies as it is sometimes difficult to buy or sell good volume at prevailing market prices under current market conditions.
The local economy is currently down sharply, compared to 2019, but information released by Statin shows the economy picking up from the depressed June quarter, when major areas of the local economy were closed due to COVID-19. However, there are signs that the recovery has been picking up the pace and could move higher if the Coronavirus does not have any greater impact.
While the restrictions placed on economic and social activity has eased since the June quarter, it’s not business as usual in many areas. Investors still need to keep an eye on COVID-19 developments globally and any likely effects on the local economy. Barring any negative developments, stocks highly exposed to tourism, construction, banks and some manufacturing entities could see revenues and profits improving in 2021.
The TOP Main Market stocks’ potential gains range from 70 percent to 290 percent. The Junior Market range is 145 percent to 400 percent. Quite a number of the TOP 15 are recovery candidates. In fact, the Junior Market is filled with these, of which there are six that suffered badly from the effects COVID-19 had on their customers or in dampening demand for their products. A few in the Main Market were partially affected but not as much as some Junior Market companies.
This year 2021, seems set to be the year of surprises as many stocks that suffered badly in 2020 could be making a major turnaround in revenues and profit, while some that may not fully recover could start showing good signs of returning to normalcy.
The TOP 15 Main Market stocks: Berger Paints, Grace Kennedy, Jamaica Broilers, Pan Jam Investment, Radio Jamaica, Victoria Mutual Investments, Scotia Group, QWI Investments, Wisynco Group, Carreras, Sygnus Credit Investments, JMMB Group, Caribbean Cement, Seprod and Sterling Investments.
The TOP 15 Junior Market stocks: Lasco Financial, Caribbean Producers, Caribbean Cream, Main Event, Elite Diagnostic, Jetcon, Medical Disposables, Caribbean Assurance Brokers, Access Financial, Stationery and Office Supplies, Jamaican Teas, General Accident, Lasco Distributors, Lumber Depot and MailPac.
While there are clear signs of improving economic conditions, the path for the year ahead is uncertain for a number of companies. Some that suffered badly in 2020 will be showing signs of recovery, but the timing of their return to fairly good health is unclear at this stage. Investors should be on the watch for these early signs in individual companies.
Banks suffered from the need to increase expected credit loss provisioning, but it appears that it may not be as bad as initially projected. As such, there is likely to be less provision for credit losses in 2021 for banks and other lenders.

JSE Main Market on a rebound and heading to 460,000 points based on the AJ Index.

For other companies, just the fact that the second quarter lockdown of the economy last year is unlikely to be repeated will result in second quarter results in 2021 being better than last year. This would be of benefit to Caribbean Producers, Elite Diagnostic, Jetcon and Stationery and Office Supplies.
Strong growth in the construction sector favours stocks such as Berger Paints, Caribbean Cement and Lumber Depot while a rebound in the tourism sector will help boost revenues for Caribbean Producers, Grace Kennedy, Jamaica Broilers, Wisynco Group and the banks.
The financial challenges caused by the coronavirus are likely to lead to some businesses seeking to merge or dispose of a majority interest to other entities. As such, there is the possibility that a number of listed companies could acquire some of them at good prices. This is a potential development that investors should be on the alert for.

Lasco stocks bow out of IC TOP 10

Lasco Manufacturing that IC Insider last week suggested readers keep a keen eye on, reported outstanding full year results and climbed 18.5 percent to $3.85 on Friday, exit the Junior Market IC Insider.com’s TOP 10.
Lasco Financial came in with full year results that were above the 2018 figures and the price moved up to $5. IC Insider downgraded 2020 earnings to 60 cents per share, the combination of the two changes, pushed the stock outside the TOP 10, Jetcon is the third stock to move out of the top tier. Coming in to replace the above are CAC 2000, Everything Fresh and Consolidated Bakeries, all three newcomers have been having challenges with growing profits.
Carreras reported flat profits for the year to March resulting in downgrading of 2020 profits, with the stock no longer in the TOP 10, also leaving is Caribbean Cement with the price recovering during the week to close at $78, the two are replaced by Stanley Motta and Sygnus Credit Investments.
The three leading Junior Market stocks for the coming week are, Caribbean Producers with projected gains of 272 percent, followed by Iron Rock with likely gains of 243 percent and Medical Disposables with possible gains of 233 percent.
Sterling Investments with potential gains of 174 percent leads main market stocks, followed by Radio Jamaica with 159 percent and VM Investments in third spot with the potential to gain 141 percent within twelve months.
The main market, closed the week with the overall PE at 14.8 and the Junior Market at 11.1. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks averages 6.8 and the main market PE 9. These levels, point to a big upside for TOP 10 stocks over the next 12 months and Junior Market stocks in particular.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 39 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks and main market stocks trade at a discount of 39 percent to the overall market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Projected earnings, for each company’s current fiscal year, are used in determining, the selected stocks. The PE for and projected earnings for each stock are computed to show potential gains for the year, which are ranked in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.

This report is compiled by persons who may have interest in the securities commented on.

 

Wigton blows out of IC TOP 10

Investors blew Wigton shares out of IC TOP 10 last week.

Wigton Windfarm, the third highest ranked IC Insider.com TOP 10 main market stock last week, gained over 60 percent since listing on Wednesday to close at 83 cents and is now out of the TOP 10 main market stocks.
Lasco Manufacturing is the only change to the Junior Market IC Insider.com’s TOP 10, replacing Consolidated Bakery while Grace Kennedy and Jamaica Broilers are in the main market Top list replacing Wigton and Sagicor Group.
The three leading Junior Market stocks for the coming week are, Iron Rock with projected gains of 233 percent, followed by Caribbean Producers with likely gains of 233 percent and Lasco Financial with possible gains of 210 percent.  Of the three, Lasco Financial seems likely to break out after they release full year results later this week, but keep a keen eye on Lasco Manufacturing as well.
Radio Jamaica with potential gains of 165 percent leads main market stocks, followed by Sterling Investments with 156 percent likely gain and VM Investments in third spot with the potential to gain 150 percent within twelve months.
The main market, closed the week with the overall PE at 14.5 and the Junior Market at just 11.1. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks averages 7 and the main market PE 8.7. These levels, point to a big upside for TOP 10 stocks over the next 12 months and Junior Market stocks in particular.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 37 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks and main market stocks trade at a discount of 40 percent to the overall market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Projected earnings, for each company’s current fiscal year, are used in determining, the selected stocks. The PE for and projected earnings for each stock are computed to show potential gains for the year, which are ranked in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.

This report is compiled by persons who may have interest in the securities commented on.

Wigton IC TOP 10 stock sets to double

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Wigton stock could double soon.

Wigton Windfarm is the third highest ranked IC Insider.com TOP 10 main market stock for this coming week, with the potential to double in price before too long, after listing.
The stock lists on Wednesday on main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange. The IPO was priced at 50 cents per share, with a PE of 8.3 times, normalized earnings for the year to March 2019. With the heavy oversubscription, the top investors will get just a fraction of what they applied for and will push the price higher to get a reasonable volume.
IC Insider.com’s TOP 10 for the coming week has five new listings as some company results encouraged increased buying and reduced selling in a number of cases in the past week.
The Junior Market list has two new listings, Jetcon Corporation and tTech that rejoin the group with falling prices while Elite Diagnostic jumped to $4 and ISP Finance climbed to $16, both on the back of good March quarter results and gave way to the two new listings.
JMMB Group surged in price and move out the TOP 10, following an announcement that the group will invest a minimum of US$200 million in Alignvest Acquisition ll Corporation, a Toronto Stock Exchange traded Special Purpose Acquisition Corporation. Also moving on are Sygnus Credit Investments with a rising price and Grace Kennedy that was edged out by Sagicor Group. Caribbean Cement fell in price to $69 and Scotia Group squeezed into the top list.
The three leading Junior Market stocks for the coming week are, Caribbean Producers with projected gains of 233 percent, Lasco Financial with likely gains of 210 percent, followed by Iron Rock with potential gains of 208 percent.  Of the three on Lasco Financial seems likely to break out after they release full year results later this month.
Radio Jamaica with potential gains of 180 percent leads main market stocks, followed by Sterling Investments with 151 percent likely gain and Wigton Windfarms in third spot with the potential to gain 140 percent within twelve months.
The main market, closed the week with the overall PE at 14.4 and the Junior Market at just 11.1, with the latter having moved up from 10.4 and the end of the prior week. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks averages 6.8 and the main market PE is now 8.6. These levels, point to the huge upside for TOP 10 stocks over the next 12 months and Junior Market stocks in particular.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 39 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks and main market stocks trade at a discount of 41 percent to the overall market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Projected earnings, for each company’s current fiscal year, are used in determining, the selected stocks. The PE for and projected earnings for each stock are computed to show potential gains for the year, which are ranked in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.

This report is compiled by persons who may have interest in the securities commented on.

A unique listing could be your next IPO

UCC LogoThere is no listing even close to the next likely listing slated after Main Event comes to market, on the Jamaica Stock Exchange. It has no walls, no buildings, no one place of business, no borders, yet it could be a most profitable venture for investors.
Mayberry Investments, the broker bringing the Main Event IPO to market seems set to be the broker bringing this unique listing to the market by January as the Jamaica Stock Exchange opens up to some never before thought of companies that can be listed.
The junior market started off with a most unique company, Access Financial in 2010. That it was a financial entity was not unique, but lending to the lower end of the market was seen by many as a sure way to give away capital and making good Profit was unique at least to stock market investors. The IPO was greeted by howls of outcry of the rape that the promoters were inflicting on the investing public. History has proven the naysayers wrong and that first listing set the stage for one of the most successful ventures that the local stock exchange has pursued.
Jetcon, a used car dealer, caused the eyes of many to pop in bewilderment as they never conceived that such a venture could interest investors much less prosper. Main Event can be considered unique but the next listing lined up, is so different from the others, that it is bound to cause investors to wonder and ponder about it for a long time.

Gary Peart of Mayberry, the lead man for the IPOs Mayberry handles.

Gary Peart of Mayberry, the lead man for the IPOs Mayberry handles.

UCC Online is the online segment of University College of the Caribbean which will be hived off into a separate company to be listed on the junior market. IC Insider’s sources indicate that the IPO could be in January, subject to a few matters being ironed out for the issue. The income for the year is said to be in the order of $50 million with very high profit margin, with growth in income said to be in double digits.
Since 2010, UCC has extended the opportunities for students in Jamaica and the Caribbean to experience a higher education through its online accredited degree programmes.
The prospectus is at an advanced stage with a few matters to be sorted out IC Insider source stated.

2 new BUY RATED stocks

I$PJetcon Corporation and ISP Finance have been added to the IC Insider BUY RATED list. The list continues to sport selections that have some room to grow before they reach the stage of maturing. Some have reached levels that look like they may be close to the top and stay there for a while and the may be just be rated hold than BUY RATED at this stage of the market’s rally in Jamaica.
The Trinidad based companies appear to be saddled by the effects of the recession on their performance.
There are now a few that were previously listed as BUY RATED have moved to Watch, as these stocks are likely to be market underperformers. If these are already owned then investors may want to hold on a little longer, buying into them now, while such a move could be profitable such investment may not be the smartest move at this time. At this stage of the Jamaican market it has become more challenging to continue to back some of the strong performers to date, as their valuation has risen and future gains will most likely come from gain in profit, unless the market revalues the PE ratios higher, a factor that is expected with lower interest rates likely in the months to follow.
Knutsford Express has been to Market Watch as it close to our target price of $24 at this time and while there is more growth to come with increased frequency slated for the north coast routes, increased profits going forward could slow considerably from recent strong gains. Buy Rated gwth 2016Sagicor Group has done well since we selected it, with an increase close to 150 percent plus dividends, the immediate future looks like the gains are going to slow compared to the growth since the start of 2015. In past bull market, investors gave it a big premium over the rest of the market. That is not so now, but could change as the current bull market continues it run.
Lasco Distributors that was moved to a hold is now back to a buy, since the price has pulled back to $5, the company will benefit from taking over the overseas distribution of all of the manufacturing company products. The inflows expected from the lawsuit with Pfizer should add to the company’s value when the courts agree the amount, which management puts at more than US$300 million.
AMG Packaging, Caribbean Cream and Paramount are all up more than 300 percent but expansion into new products should give revenues and profit a kick in the not too distant future for AMG and Paramount. Caribbean Cream full year results are due shortly and should exceed 55 cents per share as the company benefited from sharp drop in raw material cost.
Jamaica Stock Exchange is now a Watch as it seems close to fairly valued currently, but dividend yield could well push it higher. In addition, of note is that while trading levels have improved they are still well off from historical highs, so there could still be much more gains ahead later on.
Trinidad is in recession and the results of companies are showing it with pressure on profit particularly for companies that earn the bulk of their income in the twin island state. As a result prices have been declining for many of the companies on the Trinidad market with a few exceptions. With the exception of Trinidad Cement that is undervalued, a hold has been placed on Trinidad based listed stocks for the time being but investors should wait for TCL to settle before buying.

Market up on moderate trades – Tuesday

Trading on the Jamaican Stock Exchange resulted small gains in the early morning session on Tuesday as trading remained slow with very low volumes as investors return from the long break for Easter holiday week end.
After 75 minutes of the market’s opening, the trade of note was a rise of 33 cents in the price of newly listed Jetcon Corporation to $2.58 with 16,649 shares changing hands while Blue Power shed $2.05 to $11.50, Caribbean Cream recovered 75 cents with only 5,000 shares trading to end at $4.25. JSE intra 29-03-16Consolidated Bakeries is under pressure having traded down to $1.12 from $1.30 while trading 5,000 shares, there is an offer of 848,909 units on offer at $1.30 with the bid at $1.11 to buy 20,000 units. There are only six bids in the market for the stock for 290,000 units down to 85 cents while there are 27 offers to sell. Caribbean Cement gained 90 cents to $23.90 but only 13,695 shares changed hands with the bid still at $22.
Only 23 securities accounting for a mere 189,075 shares changed hands as 11 stocks gained and 6 declined.
The indices enjoyed moderate gains with the all Jamaica Composite Index rising 496.32 points to 169,413.55, the JSE Market Index gaining 444.12 points to 152,526.77 the JSE combined index ending with a 739.11 points rise to 161,133.21 but the junior market index rose 35.09 points to 1,916.62.

Jetcon listing slated for Thursday

Jetcon 03-16Jetcon Corporation coming on the heels of a successful issue of shares to the public that opened on Monday March 14, in respect of 44,500,000 ordinary shares is expected to start trading on Thursday, March 24 with the listing committee meeting on Tuesday to consider and approve the listing.
The offer closed shortly after opening on Monday after it was oversubscribed. A total of 256 applications covering $113 million were received. Applications of all reserved shares were fully satisfied while the general public got the first 5,000 Shares applied plus 83.11 percent of the balance. The shares were sold to the public at $2.25 each. the closure left some investors out in the cold as they missed the early closing time of the offer.
Listing on the junior market will result in no corporate taxes being paid for 5 years from the time of listing. Jetcon reported profit of $50.6 million for the 2015 year and enjoyed 45 percent increased revenues for the first two months of 2016 ahead of the similar period in 2015, accordingly, IC Insider rate the stock Buy Rated.

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