As of Friday, the worst-performing equity-based listed fund has the highest valuation relative to net asset value (NAV). The best performing fund is currently beating the performance of local stocks by a huge margin, following outperforming the market in 2019, but has the highest discount to NAV currently.
Since the start of the year, QWI Investments NAV outperformed the local stocks with the NAV down 16.5 percent while local stocks are down on average 31 percent, with investors marking the price down more than other equity funds. Mayberry Jamaican Equities NAV is down 38 percent from the start of the year, to underperform the market, but the stock is selling now selling at a moderate to the NAV. The NAV for Sagicor Select Funds – Financial is down 28 percent for the year so far, while the Manufacturing & Distribution fund is down 23 percent but the discount to NAV is far lower than QWI.
The disparities in valuing the stocks in the sector is a reminder that making money in stocks is not as difficult as many think, sometimes it requires observance, patience and a bit of logic and here history can be an excellent teacher.
Commodities such as stocks, currencies and other traded assets form patterns over time, persons following these patterns well can profit from them above the average.
When there are major variations from normal patterns, prices will move in one direction or the other and this is one way to make big gains for the keen observer. This is the situation now evident in the stocks of listed funds. When coupled with positive bullish technical signals for the Junior and Main Market, persons investing in some of these funds could do very well in the new few months. The same applies to equity-linked unit trust that declined in value, with the fall of local stock prices earlier this year.
Stocks trading at a valuation below the market or below the historical valuation usually indicate undervaluation and are candidates for gains. The reverse is also true, suggesting that investors should consider selling these if the situation exists.
The patterns shown by local listed funds makes for interesting reading suggesting there is money to be made by investing in some of them.
Mayberry Jamaican Equities is the worse performing listed fund in 2020,
QWI Investments announced its NAV per share as of November 20, at $1.06, a gain of 2 cents for the past week. At the same time, the stock closed at 72 cents, a discount of 32 percent to the net asset value. While the NAV increased, the stock price has fallen to stretch the already overly deep discount. A return of the stock price to NAV would provide a return of 41 percent on the current stock price.
Sagicor Select Funds – Financial NAV this week is 83.8 cents, with the stock at 64 cents on Friday, for a discount of 23.6 percent. At the end of September, the NAV was 83 cents and the stock price 60 cents for a discount of 28 percent. The NAV is at a discount of 12 percent for the Manufacturing & Distribution fund with NAV of 79.7 cents with the stock price on Friday closing at 70 cents, at the end of September, the stock traded at 70 cents with the NAV at 79 cents, with a discount of 12.4 percent.
Mayberry Jamaican Equities discount to NAV at November 18 is 12.8 percent with the NAV at $8.80 and the stock priced at $7.80, at the end of September the NAV was $8.30 and priced at par with the last traded price of $8.30.
The discount to net asset value for QWI narrowed in June, widened again in August but narrowed again in September and has now widened again, with the value rising and the price dropping. The average discount from the start in October 2019 is 21 percent with a low of 5 percent on March 27 and a high of 33 percent in July. The average discount from the start of trading is 18 percent up to the end of June, which is closer to the discount of the others.
