Strong Buy Rated growth more to come

Carib Cement is the IC Insider best performing selection with gains of 573%.

Carib Cement is the IC Insider best performing selection with gains of 573%.

Jamaican stocks have climbed sharply this year with junior market stocks gaining 120 percent to the first week in November and the overall market up 79 percent. Several stocks have more than doubled in the process.
While Jamaican stocks have jumped sharply those in Trinidad are just marking time which a number of prices retreating as interest rates were pushed up by the central bank on a number of occasions and the country faced falling oil revenues with the fall in world oil prices.
In the Jamaican market, stocks that were selling around 5 times earnings or less at the start of the year, have seen a sharp revaluation of many, with an average now around 9 times earnings based on this year’s estimated earnings. A total of 22 companies or 41 percent of the ordinary listings are selling above the average. Indications suggest that the rally in Jamaica will continue, with expectation for interest rates to decline going into 2016. A sharp 32 percent fall in interest rates from March last year to October this year, is one of the main driver of the market. Company results have been mostly strong with many enjoying large increases over the results of last year as well as over the 2013 period. A fall in the cost of energy and fuel and expanded sales in some cases are major drivers of profit gains this year as well.
It is partly against the above developments, that IC Insider BUY RATED listing of stocks should be viewed. Some of the stocks have been placed on hold based on the gains to date and much higher valuation as a result of this year’s growth.
Four junior market stocks should be held at this moment rather than buys, unless investors are looking at a two to three year’s investment period. Lasco Distributors, Lasco Financial, Lasco Manufacturer and Medical Disposables have reached rich valuations and should be held at this stage of the market. Profit growth for 2017 fiscal year for the Lasco companies should be very strong and will make them attractive buys again, the task is when should these be bought again to take advantage of the strong growth ahead? The problem now is that supply for these stocks is low, currently. Dolphin Cove growth has slowed for this year and remains a hold for now until 2016, the rest of the junior market selections are still attractive buys, with potential gains of 50 to 130 percent for a number of them.
BUY Rated cht 11-15Desnoes and Geddes should be sold now with the price at $30 rather than to await a payout from the proposed buyout proceeds. The Jamaica Stock Exchange share has gained 450 percent since we placed a BUY RATED status on it. The price has room to grow but investors will need to be cautious about buying at current price levels until the release of the September quarterly report in a few days. A hold is placed on the two Scotia shares with both now valued around 10 time 2015 earnings. Carreras is priced close to 10 times this fiscal year’s earnings but high dividend yield well in excess of current Treasury bill rate of 6.2 percent will make the stock an attractive income earner and will continue to drive the price upwards. Mayberry Investments should be a hold at this stage, with reporting earnings not in strong support of the present stock price, the company has the assets that will aid in a large increase in net asset value.
In Trinidad, companies are having a tough time growing profits in a meaningful way but there are still a few stocks that are worthwhile holding, with Trinidad Cement being a very compelling buy now selling at a PE of 4 times this year’s earnings. National Flour is undervalued and has room for growth with increased profits in 2015. Most of the rest will have to await 2016 for increased profits and growth.

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  1. […] IC BUY RATED stocks were top of the Caribbean markets in Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago for 2015, with Jamaica Stock Exchange share, chalking up a massive gain of 830 percent since IC Insider elevated it to BUY RATED status.Caribbean Cement followed with gains of 640 percent, Caribbean Cream with 444 percent and Trinidad Cement with a 299 percent increase on the Trinidad market. While it was easy to make money in Jamaica, with profits rising and interest rates falling, developments in Trinidad went in the opposite direction, with interest rates rising and profits under pressure with the economy ended in recession. At the beginning of 2015 of the 14 junior market selections, few recorded gains and only Knutsford Express with a 17 percent increase reflecting any meaningful positive movement. Losses were large, with AMG Packaging down 39 percent, Blue Power 31 percent, Caribbean Cream 23 percent, Jamaica Teas 28 percent, Lasco Financial 37 percent and Lasco Manufacturing 32 percent. What a difference a year can make? By the end of 2015, gains were all over the place with the list having 17 companies with two being dropped. There were no losing stocks in the list that had a new addition, tTech which could be this week. Honey Bun was added to the listing in November and gained 9 percent since. Eight stocks have more than doubled, four gained 40 percent to 91 percent. Caribbean Cream jumped 292 percent to be the top selection in this market, followed by Lasco Distributors up 274 percent. Blue Power was removed from the list in July with a small gain. In the JSE main market, at the start of 2015, Hardware and Lumber was the best performing stock with gains of 62 percent followed by Cable & Wireless with 47 percent and Jamaica Broilers had the worst performance with a loss of 24 percent. In all, 7 of the 15 selections were lower than at the time they were BUY RATED. By year-end, all selections in the JSE main market were up, with Scotia Investments having a mere 15 percent increase, being the poorest performer. This stock is being moved to Market Watch as the 2015 profit performance was far too disappointing to warrant buying now, while Hardware and Lumber remains a hold. The rest, present opportunities for continuing profit making. JMMB ended with just 28 percent gain, but seems undervalued at the current price. While the list had a few lousy performers, the same can’t be said about a 640 percent gain in Caribbean Cement and 830 percent increase for Jamaica Stock Exchange share. In all, 9 stocks posted gains in excess of 100 percent and 4 below 100 percent but with a 50 percent increase and more. There were 13 selections in the Trinidad market with Trinidad Cement being the best performer with gains of 150 percent, the next was Ponit Lisas with 11 percent at the start of 2015. Five stocks suffered losses with the highest being 22 percent and the next 18 percent. For 2015 the price of Trinidad Cement is up 299 percent followed by National Flour with a 59 percent gain. Looking ahead, the junior stocks should continue to grow, with several of the companies actively expanding resulting in profits climbing at a fast pace. There are a few stocks to be cautious of just now. Lasco Distributors selling at almost 16 times 2016 March earnings. Growth should be strong but unless investors have a long term objective they should be careful buying at current price level, the same applies to Lasco Financial that is selling at 15 times earnings. Dolphin Cove remains a hold at this time. The Trinidad market needs to be watch at this stage with the country needing to adjust to the lower price of oil and the recession now being endured. […]

  2. […] forecast for the next two years, (See EPS forecast below) have elevated the status of the stock to BUY RATED. The change came from a 22 percent rise in revenue in the quarter to $215 million from $169 million […]

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