The Jamaica stock market ended a momentous 2015 with the overall market doubling, aided by a 160 percent in the junior market to land the Jamaican market as the leader in the world in 2015. At the close, all three main market indices made huge gains to reach new record highs.
The JSE combined market index recorded gains of 102 percent for the year, the all Jamaica composite up 99 percent with the JSE Market Index climbing 97 percent.
In a year when just about anyone could use a dart to pick winning stocks out of the 51 securities that rose with gains ranging from a low of 1 percent to a high of 1,086 percent. Five stocks fell up to 17 percent and one ended with the price unchanged. A total of 25 securities rose by 103% or more and 16 between 50% and 95 percent.
After nearly 11 years passed, with the market not rising above the record set in 2005, the record was finally broken in the second half of 2015 as an announced takeover offer for the shares of Desnoes and Geddes helped push the market to new highs, but it was more than that. Treasury bill rates peaked at 9 percent in March 2014, falling to 6 percent by the end of 2015 was a major catalyst in igniting prices higher, aided by some strong increases in profit of a wide range of companies. The top 15 performing stocks for 2015 are those in the table. The Jamaica Stock Exchange delivered a stunning 1,085 percent gain for investors that were invested in the stock from the start of the year, followed by Pulse Investments with 757 percent and Caribbean Cement with 726 percent.
JSE stock gained 1,085% in 2015
With the level of gains in 2015, the PE ratio of the market rose sharply to an average around 10 times 2015 earnings. Some stocks are selling above the average. Interest rates on Treasury bills are around 6 percent but that should fall in 2016 and will result in higher PE ratios as stocks become more attractive as an investment means than before. The local economy grew 1.5 percent in the September quarter, much higher than the previous two quarters, suggesting potential for higher growth levels in 2016, if so corporate profits should continue to grow, hence 2016 should be seeing continuation of the market growing.
With data going back to the start of the Jamaica stock market, indicating that on average only 2 out of the top 10 stocks in a year repeat that performance in the subsequent year, investors should be looking outside the top 10 performing stocks for big winners in 2016. Of the top ten ones that could do very well are Pulse, Caribbean Flavour, Honey Bun. Jamaica Stock Exchange should continue to see attractive gains, with increased stock market activities in 2016. That should mean more revenues and profits, but it will be difficult to see them in the top 10. With the company paying a high level of dividends, investors could see the stock as very attractive for income and thus drive the price higher than profits may suggest is possible.
