Virtually flat profits at Scotia Group

Scotia Group head quarters in Kingston.

Profit after tax rose just 7.7 percent at Scotia Group for the year to October, resulting in $12.17 billion realized attributable to the Group’s shareholders. For the October quarter profit rose to $3.36 billion from $3.1 billion in 2016.
Net interest income grew by $1.27 billion to $26.64 billion for 2017 versus $25.38 billion in 2016, but a sharp climb in bad loan provisioning of $746 million, reduced the impact of the rise in net interest income. Other income grew by $1.6 billion for the year to $15 billion.
Operating Expenses amounted to $21.3 billion for the year, an increase of $595 million or 3 percent compared to prior year. Employees’ costs increased $212 million, while other operating expenses were up $159 million. Asset tax increased by $112 million or 12 percent to $1.1 billion. The productivity ratio moved from 53.38 percent last year to 51.09 percent.
Loans remained flat, year over year at $166.5 billion, according to the company, the performance in this area is “driven by an overall decline in our foreign currency portfolio. Our small business, residential mortgages and personal loans continue to show solid performance quarter over quarter and year over year.”
Deposits by the public, increased to $260.6 billion, from $248.4 billion in the previous year, but the increase is not being put to the best use with no growth in the loan portfolio.
Results for the October quarter does not shine any light to suggest that the slow growth period is behind them. With soft demand for loans, and decline in interest rates in the wider economy, Scotia faces a tough road for the next fiscal year, in this environment the focus is going to be on cost cutting. Already, all the express locations that they currently operate will be closed in early January, the acquisition of all the minority shares in Scotia Investments is yet another move to cut cost.
On the balance sheet, assets held for sale amounted to $664 million and most likely represents the assets of CrediScotia that was subsequently sold.

In Thursday’s trading on the Jamaica Stock Exchange the stock closed at $53 at a PE of 13.5 based on earnings per share of $3.93.

JSE in big fall on Tuesday

JSE headquarters in downtown Kingston.

Decline of $1.90 in the price of Scotia Group shares along with 9 other stocks, dented the value of the main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange on Tuesday, as price movements between winners and losers are close to even as 25 securities traded.
The market suffered large fall in the two main indices with the All Jamaica Composite Index dropping 3,458.79 points to close at 281,912.79, as the 290,000 points resistance is proving a challenge to the market for the time being. The JSE Market Index sank 3,151.35 points to 256,854.43. The JSE US dollar market index added 0.40 points to 187.99.
At the close of trading, 25 securities changed hands in the main market with 4 trading in the US dollar market, leading to 9 stocks advancing and 11 declining. The main market ended with 4,433,242 units valued at $88,443,092 changing hands compared to 1,991,216 units valued at $25,521,205 on Monday. Trading in the US dollar market accounted for 110,250 units valued at US$31,004, bringing the total of all trades to J$92,473,610.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading in the main and US dollar markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 7 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 2 with lower offers.
The main market ended trading with an average of 177,330 units valued at $3,537,724 for each security traded compared to an average of 82,967 units valued at $1,063,384. The average volume and value for the month to date ended at 278,353 units with an average value of $2,866,580 compared with an average of 284,296 units with an average value of $2,829,294 on the previous trading day. The average volume and value for August ended at 184,094 units with an average value of $4,336,090.

Sharp movement in some JSE stocks

Scotia Group closed at a new high of $50 on Thursday.

Scotia Group jumped $3 to hit an all-time high of $50 and Supreme Ventures hit a new high of $12 but the movements were inadequate to prevent to market index of the Jamaica Stock Exchange from slipping at the close on Thursday.
Sterling Investments dropped to a 52 weeks’ low of $12.75 while Investors sold Berger Paints shares down to $13 on Thursday from $15.80 close on Wednesday with a low offer by the Ansa McAl group of $10.88 per share, to buy out the minority shareholders.
Productive Business Solutions that went to the public to raise fresh capital had the US dollar ordinary shares and the preference shares were listed at the start of the day but there was no trading in them.
The All Jamaica Composite Index declined 252.73 points to close at 280,557.39, the JSE Market Index gained 230.27 points to 255,619.55 and the JSE US dollar market index rose 3.69 points to 182.58.
At the close of trading, 29 securities changed hands in the main market with 2 trading in the US dollar market, leading to 14 stocks advancing and 11 declining. The main market ended with 5,056,094 units valued at $68,305,370 changing hands compared to 4,844,593 units valued at $284,429,479 at the close on Wednesday. Trading in the US dollar market accounted for 52,749 units valued at US$12,720 bringing the total of all trades to J$69,946,219.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading in the main and US dollar markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 8 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 2 with lower offers.
The main market ended trading with an average of 174,348 units valued at $2,355,358 for each security traded compared to an average of 210,634 units valued at $12,366,499. The average volume and value for the month to date ended at $184,094 units with an average value of $4,336,090 compared with an average of 184,581 units with an average value of $4,435,127 on the previous trading day. The average volume and value for July ended at 160,668 units with an average value of $2,691,438.

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Scotia investments (SIJL) has been in transition for a long time from their original business based substantially on repos, to one based on pool funds. In the latter half of 2016 the company showed strong signs returning to pathway of growth but the latest half year results have put that on hold, at least for the time being.
A big part of the investment banker’s problem is the strangulation the Scotia Culture has placed on clients that is driving business away. Examples of this is the length of time it takes to place stock brokerage orders and its execution, or the inability now to get statement of accounts.
The company’s half year report, shows profit of $451 million for the period ended April 2017 compared to $457 million for the prior period, in 2016 from revenues of $2.3 billion, a reduction of $64 million in the corresponding period in 2016. The net profit for the second quarter to April this year, ended at $302 million, down from $339 million for the same quarter in 2016 from revenues of $1.14 billion compared to $1.19 billion in 2016.
SIJL earned 71 cents per share in the April quarter, down from 80 cents in the 2016 period and $1.07 for the half year compared to $1.08 in 2016. At the rate of growth for the half year, it looks as if profit for the full year should hoover around the $3.19 earned in 2016.
Total Comprehensive Income for the half year amounted to $546 million, compared to $663 million reported for the same period last year and for the quarter $454 million versus $468 million.
Total revenues for the six months from pool management funds fees grew 18 percent in the half year over that of 2016 while fees from pension and portfolio management, increased year over year by 34 percent.
Net Interest Income after impairment losses for the period was $685 million, a reduction of $60 million from $745 million in the corresponding period last year.
Other Revenue, comprising fee income, securities trading gains and net foreign exchange trading income, rose by $32 million to $866 million for six month period, above the same period last year, but was down slightly for the quarter to $463 million from $481 million in the previous year’s quarter.
Operating Expenses for the 2017 half year ended at $889 million, compared to $913 million for the corresponding period last year and $385 million for the April quarter versus $395 million in 2016.
Total assets stood at $67 billion at the end of April while financial assets under administration not included in the financial statements, amount $193 billion versus $169 billion in 2016
A dividend of 45 cents per share was declared payable July 20, 2017, the same amount being paid for some time. The stock traded at $36.50 on the Jamaica Stock Exchange on Friday.

The Exuberant 10

The JSE stock traded at an outlandish $13.50 & dropped 47% since.

It is not nice to watch one’s investment lose value while others grow delivering big gains at the same time. Many investors plunge into investments that will result in just that happening, as they err and refuse to let go and reinvest, to recover their loss, from gains elsewhere.
A look back at prices in 2005, reveals shocking results of costly ill-timed investments. In June 2005, investors in a bout of excess exuberance, pushed Mayberry Investments to $8.40 from a listed price of $5.05, weeks after it listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, 12 years later it is still to reach back to that level. That is a huge blow to investors who held on to the shares from then.
The sad thing is that many investors who wanted to sell could not, as attempts were made to control the price from a big drop as selling started to overwhelm buying a few days after nearly 40 million shares were traded around the $7-8 level. Mayberry is an outstanding example of investors making huge errors based on inadequate information and paying dearly for it.
But Mayberry’s stock is not the only one that investors underwent a long period of suffering from, they have a number of top notch companies as their friends that that performed poorly until fairly recently. Scotia Group was pushed to $33.50 in March 2005 based on results that were not sustainable as the bank benefited by a poor decision of the Central Bank to push interest rates on CDS paying interest at elevated levels for about two to three years. The banks of course made a killing when rates fell back. Added to that, Scotia effected a stock split that sent the stock flying. Well it was not until late 2016 that the price exceeded the 2005 high. JMMB Group’s shareholders saw the price of the stock peaking at $22 in April 2004 only to see it fall away and not getting back to that level until recently this year. That is not great for a stock that is not a great dividend payer.
Grace Kennedy hit a high of $123 (Now $41 after stock split in 2016), in January 2005, it has taken nearly 12 years to recover the loss and it has still not delivered much more in gains since its full recovery.
Markets tend to repeat past behaviors, over and over but sometimes they take a break from the norm. PE ratios are the end product of investors’ perception of values for stocks. There are other measures but the PE is the most widely used. When PEs are pushed well beyond where the majority of investors thing the value ought to be, they induce added buying or selling. Investors who buy when the market has pushed valuation well above what is considered the norm, usually pay a steep price for so doing. The 2005 examples are cases in point. An accepted concept is that the PE ratio should be line with profit growth. One year’s growth cannot be used by itself but investors have to try and determine that themselves.
Most of the stocks in the IC Insider’s Exuberant 10, were pushed in 2017 by excessive enthusiasm and in some cases wrong information. Stock splits helped to fuel some of the excess as well. The attached table shows the stocks that were pushed well above their appropriate values and the levels of correction since. Some may fall even more than their latest price as they can be considered overvalued based on known earnings for the current period. A few that are not on the list could see a decent fall as well, included in this latter list are Knutsford Express and Kingston Properties.

Broilers and Kremi now TOP 10ers

The past week saw much changes in the main and junior markets as prices gyrated up and down, for several of the stocks. Some of the highly valued stocks, declined in value as some investors took profit from the sharp rise since the start of 2017, for a number of stocks.
In the TOP 10 junior market selection, Caribbean Flavours (CFF) rose 24 percent to $12.44 during the week and moved out of the list, with the bid at $12.50, making space for Caribbean Cream, now occupying ninth spot. CFF sits just outside the top tier of junior market stocks and could well reenter at the end of next week. ISP Finance moved to a new high of $10.10 on the bid, having traded during the week at record high of $10 and no longer sits on the number 1 spot. Key Insurance suffered a setback with a big 2016 fourth quarter loss of $136 million, coming from increased insurance claim provisioning of $433 million for the quarter and $1 billion for the full year. Hopefully, that is now behind them, clearing the way for 2017 to deliver what the company seems capable of doing. tTech pulled back in price, to sit at a more comfortable $7, after some selling came in for the stock. Access Financial climbed to a new all-time high of $35, helped by strong nine months results and lack of supply of stocks for sale.
Scotia Investments climbed to $41.19 during the week, from $38 the previous week and exited the TOP 10 main market stocks. The move made space for Jamaica Broilers that lost value during the past week, falling from $16.25 at the start of the week, down to a more attractive $14.50, with an increased forecast of $2 earnings per share for the 2018 fiscal year starting May, this year. The week saw more interest in Radio Jamaica and JMMB Group, the latter trading at $23 on Friday, but closed lower by the end of trading, helped by net profit rising 55 percent to $2.68 billion, for the nine months to December last year. Earnings per share for the nine months came out at $1.63 and 39 cents for the December quarter.

Jamaican stocks up in early trading – Monday

Stocks on the Jamaica Stock Exchange surged forward first thing Monday morning, with the All Jamaica composite index rising by 1,109.47 at 1 minute after trading opened to trade at a new high and the combined index moved up by 919.92 points.
Market activity resulted in 31 securities traded at 10:45 am, compared to 26 on Friday at 10:45 am. A total of 11 securities advanced and 9 declined, resulting in a volume of 842,68 shares changing hands, carrying a value of $7,961,875, compared of 984,204 shares changing hands, carrying a value of $4,620,010 on Friday. The average number of shares traded, amount to 27,183 units versus 37,854 units on Friday.
Market activity was helped by National Commercial Bank rising to $52.50, with 7,180 shares up from a last trade on Friday of $51.01, Scotia Group trading 8,582 units at $39, representing a rise of 99 cents from Friday’s close. In the junior market, Blue Power jumped $3.50 to a new all-time high of $34.50 with 3,500 units changing hands, Caribbean Cream fell back from Friday’s close of $8.55 to trade at $7.35 with 83,535 units and Jetcon Corporation with 25,946 units traded at a new high of $6.50. Caribbean Cement dropped $3.50 with 9,350 shares to $30.50 but recovered partially to traded 18,350 units up to $33.20.
The all Jamaica Composite Index gained 645.01 points to 214,293.58, the Jamaica Stock Exchange Market Index grew 576.75 points 195,991.13 the Jamaica Stock Exchange combined index gained 662.77 points to 208,847.13 and the junior market index rose 12.45 points to 2,636.77.

Jamaican stocks jump 3,000 points to record

Sagicor Group jumped $1.50 and helped push JSE to a new record on Wednesday.

Sagicor Group jumped $1.50 and helped push JSE to a new record on Wednesday.

The main market of the Jamaica Stock exchange surged with the All Jamaica Composite Index adding 3,761.75 points to close at a new high of 188,475.06 bring the year to date gains to 12.6 percent. The JSE Market index, the Select Index and the Composite index all closed at new all-time highs as well, erasing the previous high on October 11.
Helping to move the index up were a $3.35 jump in Caribbean Cement, 80 cents gain in National Commercial Bank, a gain of $1.50 in Sagicor Group and $1.48 in Scotia Group.
The JSE Market Index jumped 3,363.67 points to finish at 169,572.00 and the JSE combined index blasted 3,330.80 points up, to end at 182,521.72 and gained 15.3 percent for the year to date.
At the close 8,751,466 units valued at $70,052,498 changed hands, compared to 8,941,559 units valued at $145,848,058 changing hands on Tuesday. The junior market accounted for 521,462 units trading valued at $7,467,867 of the stocks traded.
ICI JSE sum 2-11-16 The average trade for the day in the main market ended at 330,400 and month to date 312,605 units. On Tuesday, an average of 294,810 units traded. The average for the October was 220,811 units.
The market closed with 43 securities trading as the prices of 19 gained while 9 declined in the overall market, including 6 stocks rising and 4 falling, in the junior market.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 15 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 4 with lower offers.
In market activity, Barita Investments lost 5 cents in trading 3,200 units to close at $4.40, Berger Paints traded 7,068 shares to end at $6 after rising 14 cents, Cable & Wireless lost 1 cent to close at 84 cents with 94,486 units trading. Caribbean Cement recovered $3.35 with 10,094 units changing hands to close at $30.85, Carreras traded 57,910 shares and jumped 40 cents to end at $66. Grace Kennedy lost 24 cents in trading 18,701 units at $41.75, Jamaica Producers gained 1 cent to end at $8.20 with 33,536 units trading,ICI -JSE fn Qts 2-11-16r Jamaica Stock Exchange rose 26 cents and ended at $27.50 while trading 41,833 shares. JMMB Group traded just 670 shares and rose 49 cents to end at $13.99, Kingston Wharves traded 6,740 shares to close at $17.50, Mayberry Investments fell 23 cents and ended with 34,383 shares trading at $3.65, National Commercial Bank rose 80 cents in trading 28,240 shares to close at $44.50. Radio Jamaica gained 5 cents and closed at $1.45 after trading 5,000 shares, Sagicor Group had 77,084 shares changing hands and jumped $1.50 to close at $23.50. Scotia Group jumped $1.48 in trading 438,863 shares to close at $32.98, Supreme Ventures traded 7,196,635 shares to end at $5, Proven Investments traded 88,291 units at 19.89 US cents down from 20 US cents and JMMB Group 7.50% preference shares rose 1 cent and traded 80,500 units at $1.09.

Majors climb in early trading – Tuesday

Trading is off to a moderate start in early trading on Tuesday with Scotia Group trading more than 1 million shares and CAC 2000 finally trading after news of its multi million law suit loss to end at $5.10, down from the last traded price of $6.30.
ICI int -01-11-16Reasonable volumes came from, Iron Rock Insurance with 94,434 units trading at $3.30, Lasco Distributors with 125,000 shares at $7, Lasco Financial with 494,451 shares changing hands at $3.25, Jamaica Broilers with 500,134 units at $14.50, JMMB Group 7.50% preference shares traded 506,000 units at $1.08 and Scotia Group accounting for 1,024,549 units at $31.50.
The all Jamaica Composite Index climbs 998.42 points to 186,327.87, the Jamaica Stock Exchange Market Index gained 892.76 points to 167,652.03, the Jamaica Stock Exchange combined index rose 816.00 points to close at 180,495.75 and the junior market index eased 1.17 points to 2,435.23.
At 10:30 am, a total of 24 securities traded, resulting in a volume of 2,927,694 shares changing hands carrying a value of $45,399,096, compared to 4,494,219 shares changing hands carrying a value of $8,329,082, on Monday.
The average number of shares traded amounts to 121,987 units compared to 224,711 on Monday. Market activity resulted in 5 stocks falling while the prices of 5 securities rose.

Juniors jump to another new record

Junior market stocks are trading in record territory in early morning session on the Jamaica Stock Exchange with Lasco Distributors rising to $7.85. Main market stock slipped with Scotia Investments falling from $30 to $27 on a day of moderate volumes.
ICI JSE int trd 7-10-16Up to 10:45 am, JMMB Group traded 12,790 units at a 52 weeks’ high of $15 and Paramount Trading had 150 shares changing hands at a new all-time high of $24.50. Cable & Wireless had 100,000 shares changing hands with a loss of 4 cents at 92 cents, Caribbean Cream fell 40 cents and last traded at $9.10 with 35,000 units changing hands, Honey Bun traded 29,651 unit at $6.15 and Lasco Distributors gained 33 cents in trading 51,000 shares at $7.85.
A total of 26 securities traded, resulting in a volume of 423,544 shares changing hands carrying a value of $4,545,931, compared to 821,407 shares changing hands carrying a value of $7,914,772 on Thursday. The average number of shares traded amounts to 16,290 units compared to 27,380 on Thursday. Market activity resulted in 8 stock falling while the prices of 9 securities rose.
The all Jamaica Composite Index fell 136.42 points to 185,016.35, the Jamaica Stock Exchange Market Index fell 121.98 points to 166,479.30, the Jamaica Stock Exchange combined index climbed 186.03 points to close at 179,788.63 and the junior market index gained 29.13 points to a record 2,472.28.