The Jamaica stock market ended a momentous 2015 with the overall market doubling, aided by a 160 percent in the junior market to land the Jamaican market as the leader in the world in 2015. At the close, all three main market indices made huge gains to reach new record highs.
The JSE combined market index recorded gains of 102 percent for the year, the all Jamaica composite up 99 percent with the JSE Market Index climbing 97 percent.
In a year when just about anyone could use a dart to pick winning stocks out of the 51 securities that rose with gains ranging from a low of 1 percent to a high of 1,086 percent. Five stocks fell up to 17 percent and one ended with the price unchanged. A total of 25 securities rose by 103% or more and 16 between 50% and 95 percent.
After nearly 11 years passed, with the market not rising above the record set in 2005, the record was finally broken in the second half of 2015 as an announced takeover offer for the shares of Desnoes and Geddes helped push the market to new highs, but it was more than that. Treasury bill rates peaked at 9 percent in March 2014, falling to 6 percent by the end of 2015 was a major catalyst in igniting prices higher, aided by some strong increases in profit of a wide range of companies. The top 15 performing stocks for 2015 are those in the table. The Jamaica Stock Exchange delivered a stunning 1,085 percent gain for investors that were invested in the stock from the start of the year, followed by Pulse Investments with 757 percent and Caribbean Cement with 726 percent.
JSE stock gained 1,085% in 2015
With the level of gains in 2015, the PE ratio of the market rose sharply to an average around 10 times 2015 earnings. Some stocks are selling above the average. Interest rates on Treasury bills are around 6 percent but that should fall in 2016 and will result in higher PE ratios as stocks become more attractive as an investment means than before. The local economy grew 1.5 percent in the September quarter, much higher than the previous two quarters, suggesting potential for higher growth levels in 2016, if so corporate profits should continue to grow, hence 2016 should be seeing continuation of the market growing.
With data going back to the start of the Jamaica stock market, indicating that on average only 2 out of the top 10 stocks in a year repeat that performance in the subsequent year, investors should be looking outside the top 10 performing stocks for big winners in 2016. Of the top ten ones that could do very well are Pulse, Caribbean Flavour, Honey Bun. Jamaica Stock Exchange should continue to see attractive gains, with increased stock market activities in 2016. That should mean more revenues and profits, but it will be difficult to see them in the top 10. With the company paying a high level of dividends, investors could see the stock as very attractive for income and thus drive the price higher than profits may suggest is possible.
Lasco companies batter US$ investment
Lasco Distributors closed at a new high on Thursday of $4
The prices have declined compared to when I bought them and I am concerned about the potential for further decline as the dollar continues to devalue. Should I just cut my losses and sell and convert to FX.”
The prices on June 6 last year were as follows – it took J$111.37 to buy US$1 and now its roughly $120, an increase of just 7.7 percent. Lasco Distributors traded at $1.32 then and is now at $4 for a gain of 203 percent, Lasco Financial Services traded on June 6th last year at $1.15 and gained 156 percent to trade at $2.95 on Friday last week and Lasco Manufacturing was at $1 in June 2014 and has gained 180 percent up to Friday last. It is clear from the above which investment was the better one to have made. Those stock while doing very well have not been the best performing on the local market since then. Cable & Wireless traded at 29 cents in the 2014 period and last traded at $1.05 a 262 percent gain, Desnoes & Geddes was priced at $4.25 and is now at $30, the Jamaica Stock Exchange was then priced at $1.95 and has increase by 464 percent and Caribbean Cream moved from 75 cents to $4.35 for a gain of 480 percent.
IC Insider’s response, thanks for your enquiry. As you will see our BUY RATED list contains these three stocks. Here are our views. First off the local stock market tends to go down around May until last June or July. This is not cast in stone, just a tendency. One reason for it is that investors get the full information as to what companies did last fiscal year and a glimpse for the new-year. In the case of the three Lasco companies they have just reported their full year results. The distributorship earning is the most encouraging of the three and looks like it will probably do better than the other three in the short to medium term. It will also benefit from the Salada Foods distribution which started this year, as well as from increased production to come from the expanded Lasco Manufacturing company’s operation. The information suggest that the next set of results should possibly show growth over that of 2013.
Lasco Financial seems poised for good things, but big marketing spend last fiscal year kept profits down as they went for more market share. It does look as if they will be spending on the world cup promotions which could build business, but may also keep profits pressured somewhat for a while.
Lasco Manufacturing seems cheap at $1 bearing in mind the impact that the factory expansion is likely to have on both sales and profits ultimately. Short term they will have to pick up interest cost and depreciation on the completed factory but will enjoy cost savings and ultimately increased profits.
One need to be careful of converting to foreign exchange at this stage, as the big move in the FX trade could be over. You may have to hold the stocks for a while but the investment could pay off in the medium term, more so in the case of financial and distributorship, during 2014. We would want to see he Q1 results for Manufacturing before jumping.
It is our view that the market overall, is undervalued but investors will need to be patient and the payoff is likely to huge for those who wait, the gains to be reaped elsewhere is not likely to be all that great, to cause one to jump and possibly miss the gains in the local market that is ahead.