The PE ratio is one of the most popular and valuable tools used by investors to assess the value of a stock, allowing them to make appropriate investment decisions. Every investor should understand this simple measure. If they do, they will make better investment decisions, but not all PE ratios are equal and the differences should be noted when using them to make investment decisions.
“The PE Ratio is a measure used in computing appropriate stock values, averages 16 based on ICInsider.com’s forecast of 2021-22 earnings.” Readers of ICInsider.com’s daily Jamaican stock market reports will be familiar with the above quote.
What is the reason to quote this daily? PEs help investors determine if they value stocks appropriately by comparing the value of one stock against another and the overall market value.
The PE ratio is the number of years it takes for investors to get back their money based on the profit made by a company, ignoring growth in profits. At the close of trading on Wednesday, Main Market stocks were trading at an average of around 15.8, which is equal to the amount of money invested in each stock that would be repaid within 15.8 years based on this year’s profit and assuming the profit would be constant for the next 15.8 years.
On the surface, stocks with high PE ratios take longer to deliver returns than those with lower PEs, all things being equal. Globally, stocks with high PEs have high growth rates, resulting in a higher level of an annual increase in profit than stocks with lower PEs. The rationale is that if profits are going fast, the accumulated gains will reduce the payback period.
Investors can find the PE ratio for each stock on the daily report of Jamaica Stock Exchange stocks quotation charts included in the markets’ reports. The charts carry projected earnings for each company and the PE ratio for each stock, based on ICInsider.com computations. From these charts, investors can easily see the stocks that are expensive and those that are not. A company with profits growing at 10 percent per annum will have profit doubling in 7.2 years. A company that has profits growing at 20 percent per annum will double its earnings in 3.6 years, which should carry a higher PE ratio than the former.
Don’t follow the crowd. Pay attention to facts, not fads. The general rule; buy stocks with low PEs and stay away from those with high PEs and monitor them regularly to see if there are significant changes that may warrant changes in an investment.
While many investors get attracted to cheaper priced stocks believing they can double easier than high priced ones, they often ignore the main feature that determines cheapness and, therefore, the ability to make more profitable trades.
A significant and most crucial issue is the makeup of the profits used in computing the PEs, are they based on earnings from continuing operations or not? Not all PEs are equal and investors need to find out periods used to calculate the PE ratio and the quality of earnings used in the composition. PEs may be based on historical profits, trailing four quarters, current year’s or based on future earnings. Why is this important? Many companies have onetime income or expenses that are not likely to repeat consistently in the future. In such cases, it is vital to strip earnings of the onetime items to determine earnings from continuing operations. If reported profits are not adjusted for these items, the stock may be considered undervalued or overvalued and lead investors and lead to wrong investment decisions.
The usual procedure is to buy when PE are low and sell when high. Patience is required as stocks tend to take time to fully valuation, especially when they have fallen out of favour.
An indispensable tool for all investors
PE ratios continue to rise
Treasury bills rates bottomed and have moved back closer in line with the Bank of Jamaica’s overnight rate of 2 percent.
IC Insider.com is forecasting a further increase in T-bill rates to move above 2 percent, this could happen with the December Treasury bill auction.
In the mean time the main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange has moved on the new record highs, with NCB Financial being the primary mover with the stock closing at $159.05 on Friday. The Junior Market that peaked at an all-time high in October has pulled back with no new price sensitive news to encourage aggressive buying.
The above developments are happening as the PE ratio of the market continues to inch higher. The ratio climbed slowly until June but moved much sharper thereafter, to better reflect the sharp fall in interest rates. The recent inching up of Treasury bill rates appears to have slowed the upward movement in the average PE ratio of the over all market that sits just under 16 currently. The average PE is now ahead of the longer term trend that goes back to 2013, but well below the trend, from late 2015 that suggests that the average PE is headed for 18, that will require a 15 percent rise in stock prices to get there. December is usually a bullish month and so the PE of 18 may be reached by year end or early in 2019.
One Caribbean jumps to $25 – a hold
One Caribbean is no longer a recommended Buy Rated currently based on the jump to $25 per share this week, but seems to be a hold based on the reading of the Trinidad Stock market where it looks as if it should rise some more.
Since July 5 last year when IC Insider gave the stock in the Buy Rated category it has moved up 43 percent and now enjoys a PE ratio of 17.7 compared with 12.6 last year July.
Elsewhere Trinidad Cement slipped to $1.90 making it more attractive, even as there is talk of major changes in directorship. Massy Group continues its slow gain as well as Republic Bank but they as well as a number of others remain attractively priced for good gains in the period ahead as they are undervalued.
Why PE?| The price earnings ratio is the most popular measure investors use to compare and determine stocks values. It is computed by dividing the price of a stock by the earnings per share. It allows investors to compare the value of one company with others, in order to determine which ones are to be bought, sold or held. When the market moves markedly away from the norm it is usually time for investors to move, the PE ratio is a good tool to measure such extremes.
In looking at good buying opportunities the crude measure is to buy those stocks with low PEs compared to the market or to stocks in the same sector.
Attractive PE for Trinidad stocks
Massy Group gained 25 cents to end the week at a new 52 weeks high of $69.25 but there was little change in the 100 percent potential gains that lie ahead, Republic Bank moved to a new 52 weeks high at $122 which barely dented the 40 percent potential gains ahead.
Scotiabank fell to new 52 weeks low, to end at $69 but is not currently a buy and investors seem right to take some profit at this time. Flavorite became slightly less overvalued by slipping sharply to $5.75 by week end. Elsewhere not mush change took place but the Trinidad market has several stocks that are priced at a PE that are well below the market average, offering investors good potential gains in the months ahead.
The market has 6 stocks that are priced at a PEs that are well below the market’s average of 15, and a few close to the average, thus offering profitable investment opportunities for investors with medium term investment horizon.
The price earnings ratio is the most popular measure investors use to compare and determine stocks values. It is computed by dividing the price of a stock by the earnings per share. It allows investors to compare the value of one company with others in order to decide which ones are to be bought sold or held on to. When the market moves markedly away from the norm it is usually time for investors to move. Nowhere is this truer than PE ratios.
In looking at good buying opportunities the crude measure is to buy those stocks with low PEs compared to the market or to stocks in the same sector.
First Citizens PE more attractive
First Citizens made the sharpest price movement during the week as it dropped back sharply, ending back at $35 compared with $37.43 at the end of the previous week. The fall has raised the attractiveness of the stock giving it a 70 percent potential gain. Elsewhere not mush change took place more, but a number of stocks continue to post higher highs during the week as they eke away at the potential gains they have been showing. The Trinidad market has several stocks that are priced at a PE that is well below the market average, this has been so from early 2013 and continues to present.
The market has 6 stocks that are priced at a PEs that are well below the market’s average of 15, and a few close to the average, thus offering profitable investment opportunities for investors with medium term investment horizon.
The price earnings ratio| The PE ratio is the most popular measure investors use to compare and determine stocks values. It is computed by dividing the price of a stock by the earnings per share. It allows investors to compare the value of one company with others in order to decide which ones are to be bought sold or held on to. When the market moves markedly away from the norm it is usually time for investors to move. Nowhere is this truer than PE ratios.
In looking at good buying opportunities the crude measure is to buy those stocks with low PEs compared to the market or to stocks in the same sector.
Little change to TTSE PE values
Friday, 21st February 2014 | Prices mostly edged down during the past week and five stocks perked up on Friday but the movements had little impact on the market valuation of the stocks.
The general tone on the Trinidad market is more in line with sidewards movement. However, the potential for investors still rests with stocks that can gain over 100% like Trinidad Cement at 325%, Point Lisa (261%), Berger (206%), Guardian Holdings (198%), National Flour (154%), and Neal & Massy (151%).
Related posts | D&G, Carreras & C&WJ now Buy Rated | Buy Rated: Ja Teas & JMMB big gains
TTSE PE: Neal & Massy, Republic moves
Friday, 31 January 2014 | Neal & Massy and Republic Bank continues to gain this week on the Trinidad Stock Exchange as investors slowly take advantage of the high level of undervaluation of these two stocks.
Meanwhile, investors took profit in First Citizens during the week as the price fell to $38 but recovered $1.99 to close the week at $39.99, down from $43 at its recent peak. The pullback makes First Citizens a more appealing stock at the week’s close with potential gains of 40 percent versus 33 percent last week.
The Trinidad market continues to offer attractive profit potential for a large number of stocks. The top stocks with the highest potential for gain at over 100% are Trinidad Cement at the upper end with 283%, Point Lisa (271%), Berger (206%), Guardian Holdings (202%), National Flour (175%), and Neal & Massy (125%).
Related posts | Neal & Massy profits up | Republic growth struggle | First Citizens doubles in 5 months
TTSE PE: Neal & Massy makes strides
Friday, 24th January 2014 | Neal & Massy was the major mover in the Trinidad Stock market this past week as the price closed at $65.02 gaining $2.
The other stock that shared some of the spot light was First Citizens. The stock lost some ground during the week as some profit taking occurred due to appreciated so much since listing in August 2013.
Guardian Holdings inched up back to $14. One Caribbean Media closed the week up at $18.77 for a small gain. Angostura Holdings slipped a bit and so did Point Lisas.
The T&T market still provides attractive buys for investors as prices have hardly moved over the last few months for most of the stocks.
The Top Stocks with potential by PE Ratio range from Citizens Bank at the low end at 33% to Trinidad Cement at the upper end with 283%. Berger (206%), Guardian Holdings (202%), National Flour (175%) and Point Lisa (132%) round out the top five stocks with the highest potentials for price gains.
Image courtesy of Jeroen Van Oostrom/ FreeDigitalPhotos.net
PE Ratio: First Citizens have more to do
Friday, 10th January 2014 | During the past week on the Trinidad Stock Exchange, there were a number of companies that reached 52 weeks highs, but only First Citizens and Neal and Massy make any sizeable price movements in the week.
As such the PE chart remains roughly unchanged from the week before and continues to beckon investors to take advantage of the opportunities in that market to make above average returns.
First Citizens continues a relentless run toward what IC Insider sees as a target price of $50-60 this year. Others that we have recommended as good buys continue to increase in price but slowly. These include Republic Bank, Trinidad Cement, to name a few.
Related posts | First Citizens doubles in 5 months | Buy Rated: Active price movements