Jamaica’s labour market is not as tight as previously thought, according to data on the employed labour force released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, this week.
Jamaica’s labour market has more capacity than previously thought.
The number of persons in the labour force jumped by 109,000 since October last year to 1.486 million up from 1.378 million last year, even as persons under 15 years old are now excluded from the data. The unemployment rate climbed to 80,700 persons for an unemployment rate of 5.4 percent compared to 57,300 or 4.2 percent last October, with 29,000 more persons employed in January this year, with a participation rate of 68.9 percent compared to 65.5 percent based on the October 2023 report.
“The changes reflect the latest international standards and approved guidelines in labour statistics proposed by the ILO, ensuring that the More data provided by the Institute remains relevant and comparable nationally and internationally,” Statin stated.
To be classified as unemployed, an individual must now meet the following three conditions: Absence of employment, Active job-seeking and Availability for work.
“Employment in this new framework is more narrowly defined as work performed for pay or profit. As a result, activities such as own-use production work, volunteer work and unpaid trainee work are now excluded,” Statin said.
Persons under 15 years old are no longer included in the workforce, with the base now 15 years and over.
There were 100,700 young persons in the 15 to 24 age group who were not employed, not enrolled in educational activities or currently in training.
The number of persons outside the labour force declined to 669,400 compared to 725,000 in October last year.
While the labour force increased in 2024, the population used to compute the employment rate is down to 2.733 million in 2024 versus 2.746 million in October last year.
The reference week for the survey has moved from the last full week of the previous quarter to the first full week of the current quarter.
Statin also stated the upward movement was due mainly by a 1.1 percent rise in the index for the heaviest weighted division of Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages.
The 2024 calendar year inflation is now negative 1.9 percent and seems set to push inflation to zero by the end of summer after the months when inflation tends to rise above norms.
With most businesses having granted healthy wage increases in 2022 and 2023, this publication does not expect there to be much wage pressure on inflation this year. With the inflation rate for the first three months of the year now at negative1.3 percent, which could climb even more in April, the increases in the summer months that usually flow from farm produces is likely to wipe out the gains in the early months but that should set the stage for the point to point to continue to trend to the lower end of BOJ’s mandate of 4 to 6 percent.
The bank went on to state “the analysis of the inflation numbers shows that the downward movement in the Consumer Price Index, for March 2024 was largely influenced by a 1.8 per cent decline in the index for the heaviest weighted division, Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages. While the Bank had anticipated a decline for this division, the contraction was larger than expected and reflected reductions in the prices of some agricultural produce, such as tomato, yam, sweet potato, cabbage and carrot.”
Recent data from a large number of listed companies show sluggish revenues growth and lower profit for the September quarter compared with 2022 as well as the first half of 2023, added to this, tourist arrivals slowed considerably in recent months compared to the earlier part of the year and that industry has been the major driver of economic activity this year and added to that the construction sector has been in decline and could worsen.
Some 47,000 more persons were employed in July 2023 compared to July 2022 and reflects an 8.5 percent increase over the 43,300 newly employed in April this year.
If the rate for September holds or falls in October the twelve month rate will fall below 5 percent.
Jamaica’s employment rate has been pushed by the considerable focus on tourism expansion and the advent and rapid expansion in the BPO sector that now employs around 5 percent of the workforce, with the numbers employed said to be over 60,000 and addition a sharp increase in construction activity for residential and commercial demand lifted employment in that area.
Jamaica’s unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level on record in April 2023, with only 4.5 percent of persons said to be out of work, according to data released today by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) and is 1.5 percentage points lower than the 6 percent in April 2022.
