Inflation plunges in Jamaica

February 17, 2026 by
Inflation plunged 0.8 percent, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica reported for January 2026, in the process confounding forecasts for higher inflation well into 2026. The decline coincides with a seasonal pattern of low to negative inflation for the first four months of the year.  

Food category was main contributor to January’s deflation.

According to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages division had a decline of 2.6 percent in the index.
Point-to-point inflation rate (January 2025 – January 2026) was 3.9 percent and back below the Central Bank’s target of 4-6 percent, before Hurricane Melissa blew it briefly off course.

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Jamaica’s inflation cools

January 17, 2026 by
Jamaica experienced a dramatic inflation spike in late 2025, driven primarily by the effects of Hurricane Melissa on reducing agricultural production and increasing prices. The Consumer Price Index rose by 2.4 percent, in November, with the pace slowing to 1.3 percent in December, as agricultural supplies slowly returned to more normal levels.

November’s 2.4 percent monthly rise was the highest since September 2013, with 2.8 percent and matched the August 2024 increase following Hurricane Beryl. Hurricane Melissa, which struck on October 28, severely disrupted agricultural production and infrastructure. Food prices surged 6.0 percent in November, with vegetables, tubers, and plantains jumping 19.1 percent, while fruits and nuts increased 8.8 percent. Inflation in this category, in December climbed at a much slower pace of 2.1 percent, with vegetables, tubers, and plantains jumping 4.5 percent, while fruits and nuts increased 5.6 percent.

By year-end, point-to-point inflation reached 4.5 percent, with food inflation accelerating to 7.1 percent year-over-year. Housing and utility costs also contributed, rising 3.5 percent annually. Despite these pressures, inflation climbed from 2.9 percent in October to 4.3 percent in November and 4.5 percent in December, remaining well within the central bank’s target range of 4-6 percent.

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Jamaica’s inflation cools, signals lower interest rates

August 20, 2025 by
Inflation in Jamaica cooled in July, 0.30 percent, well above the 0.3 negative inflation in June and brings the last twelve months’ inflation rate to 3.3 percent, well below the Bank of Jamaica’s target of four to six percent, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) reported in its latest bulletin on price movements in the country.

According to Statin, the main contributor to the increase was a 0.9 percent rise in the index for the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages division, with the Food group rising by 0.9 percent, while the index for the Non-Alcoholic Beverages group increased by 0.4 percent.
“The increase in food was largely due to a 2.9 percent rise in the index for the class Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses. Prices for cabbage, sweet pepper, tomato and yam increased, however, this was partly offset by lower prices for carrot, plantain and sweet potato,” Statin reported. The transport sector also contributed to the increase. The overall increase was moderated by a 0.8 percent decline in the index for the Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels division.

The moderation and the continued fall in point to point inflation for two consecutive months should encourage the Bank of Jamaica to cut the Overnight interest rate, sooner than later.

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Jamaica’s GDP gets 100% upgrade

July 7, 2025 by
The Jamaican Economy grew by 1.1 percent in the first Quarter of 2025, compared to the similar 2024 quarter. The critically important news is the sharp upward revision of the size of the local economy by Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin). The change arose from the adoption of new methodological updates and enhanced data sources, resulting in an average increase of 7.8 percent in the levels of the GDP from 2015 – 2023.

The change comes against the backdrop of concerns by many that the economy was growing much faster than the original official data suggested. ICInsider.com assessment of the adjustment, is that the economy is officially twice the size, as was previously thought.

This would mean that the country’s debt to GDP is now below 40 percent from just under 70 percent, as previously stated, and would, therefore, imply that there is no need for any more budgetary contraction. It would raise the per capita income well over the prior low levels of under US$8,000.

According to Statin, the quarterly GDP growth was due to increases in both the Goods and Services industries by 2.0 percent and 0.8 percent respectively. The Productive Sectors recorded increases in all the industries. Manufacturing grew 1.7 percent, the Construction industry up 1.4 percent, Mining and Quarrying by 0.7 percent, and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing grew 3.1 percent.

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Jamaican workers not as scarce as thought

July 19, 2024 by

Jamaica’s labour market is not as tight as previously thought, according to data on the employed labour force released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, this week.

Jamaica’s labour market has more capacity than previously thought.

The number of persons in the labour force jumped by 109,000 since October last year to 1.486 million up from 1.378 million last year, even as persons under 15 years old are now excluded from the data.  The unemployment rate climbed to 80,700 persons for an unemployment rate of 5.4 percent compared to 57,300 or 4.2 percent last October, with 29,000 more persons employed in January this year, with a participation rate of 68.9 percent compared to 65.5 percent based on the October 2023 report.
“The changes reflect the latest international standards and approved guidelines in labour statistics proposed by the ILO, ensuring that the More data provided by the Institute remains relevant and comparable nationally and internationally,” Statin stated.
To be classified as unemployed, an individual must now meet the following three conditions: Absence of employment, Active job-seeking and Availability for work.
“Employment in this new framework is more narrowly defined as work performed for pay or profit. As a result, activities such as own-use production work, volunteer work and unpaid trainee work are now excluded,” Statin said. Persons under 15 years old are no longer included in the workforce, with the base now 15 years and over.
There were 100,700 young persons in the 15 to 24 age group who were not employed, not enrolled in educational activities or currently in training.
The number of persons outside the labour force declined to 669,400 compared to 725,000 in October last year.
While the labour force increased in 2024, the population used to compute the employment rate is down to 2.733 million in 2024 versus 2.746 million in October last year.
The reference week for the survey has moved from the last full week of the previous quarter to the first full week of the current quarter.

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Jamaica’s inflation jumps in May

June 17, 2024 by

Inflation in Jamaica for May 2024 was 0.5 percent, down from 0.6 percent in May 2023 according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) computed All Jamaica Consumer Price Index. The five months of deflation for 2024 comes in at negative 1.3 percent.
Statin also stated the upward movement was due mainly by a 1.1 percent rise in the index for the heaviest weighted division of Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages.
The point to point inflation fell marginally over the past 12 months to 5.2 percent, down from 5.3 percent in April and roughly at the mid-point of the target range of four to 6 percent set by the government of Jamaica for the country’s central bank to attain.
Importantly, Statin said that Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (3.9 percent), ‘Transport’ (9.7 percent) and ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (3.8 percent) were the major contributor to inflation in the past 12 months.

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Negative inflation in February

March 17, 2024 by

Point-to-point inflation in Jamaica has bent back close to the Bank of Jamaica’s target of 4-6 percent based on the February 2024 data released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, with a reading of 6.2 percent following monthly inflation plunging by 0.6 percent for the month and follows a fall of 0.10 percent in January.
The decline was influenced by the decreases in the index for the divisions ‘Food and Non Alcoholic Beverages’ (1.1 percent) and ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (1.6 percent).

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Jamaica’s Unemployment dives to 4.2%

January 30, 2024 by

Jamaica’s unemployment rate dropped to a record low of 4.2 percent in October last year and is down compared with the unemployment rate at 4.5 percent in both April and July 2023, data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica show.
The number of employed persons in October 2023, rose to 1,320,400, marginally up from 1.3151 million persons in July last year and 1.3126 million in April. The data shows that in October 2023, there were 57,300 unemployed persons in the labour force.

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Cooling inflation demands lower interest rates

November 16, 2023 by

Inflation cooled considerably over the past year in Jamaica, to 5.1 percent to October 2023, data just released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) shows. The rate is down from 5.9 percent for the period this year to September 2023, and down from 9.9 percent for the October 2022 period.
Statin also stated that inflation for October came in at points 0.8 percent, sharply down from the same period last year at 1.5 percent. October’s inflation is worse than the 0.5 percent that occurred in September this year. But spike in oil prices would have played a big role in October inflation. The fall in oil price to the low $70 levels currently, is signalling that inflation in November is likely going to be moderate with the year to date inflation then heading for the low 4 percent range.
According to the report, inflation in October was driven primarily by the upward movement in the division of ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’. The increase in the division’s index was mainly attributed to higher rates for electricity, water and sewage. In addition, ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ also contributed to the increase.
Point to point inflation is now well within the Bank of Jamaica’s mandated target range of 4-6 percent, but the fiscal year numbers which are the basis for their target could be much higher than the figure above. Regardless the central bank runs the risk of driving the economy into recession if they are not careful and move to ease interest rates fast.
Recent data from a large number of listed companies show sluggish revenues growth and lower profit for the September quarter compared with 2022 as well as the first half of 2023, added to this, tourist arrivals slowed considerably in recent months compared to the earlier part of the year and that industry has been the major driver of economic activity this year and added to that the construction sector has been in decline and could worsen.

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Unemployment steadies for Jamaica

October 18, 2023 by

Jamaica’s unemployment rate was held at 4.5 percent In July 2023, the same as April this year but the number of persons employed rose marginally to 1.3151 million persons up from 1.3126 million in April this year, data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) reports show.
Some 47,000 more persons were employed in July 2023 compared to July 2022 and reflects an 8.5 percent increase over the 43,300 newly employed in April this year.
There was an increase, mostly males, in persons employed in the occupation group ‘Elementary Occupations’, while more females were employed as ‘Service Workers, Shop and Market Sales Workers’ and ‘Clerks’. The industry, with the largest increase in employment was in Real Estate and Other Business Services and ‘Construction.
In July 2023, there were 1,377,300 persons in the Labour Force, an increase of 19,600 or 1.4 percent compared to July 2022. The male labour force increased by 8,400 or 1.2 percent to 734,400 and the female by 11,200 (1.8 percent) to 624,900.
Statin reports that the participation rate was 65.6 per cent, an increase of 0.9 percentage points, which compares favourably worldwide. The participation rate for males is 71.2 percent and females 60.1 percent, for an increase by 0.7 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively.

Jamaica’s labour market has tightened.

For comparison, Investopedia reports that “the World Bank’s most recent data from 2022, shows that the U.S. participation rate falls in the middle of the pack at 62 percent, a few points ahead of the world rate of 60 percent.”
In July 2023, the number of unemployed persons was 62,200, a decrease of 27,500 or a solid 30.7 percent compared to July 2022 and marginally up from 61,300 in April. The number of unemployed males was 24,600, a decrease of 13,000 or 34.6 percent. The number of unemployed females was 37,600, a decrease of 14,500 or 27.8 percent. The number of unemployed youths in the age group of 14 -24 years decreased by 9,000 or26.0 percent to 25,600.

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