JSE main market rise again- Tuesday

The Jamaica Stock Exchange ended on Tuesday with gains in the indices for a second day. At the close the JSE All Jamaican Composite Index gained 731.91 points to 317,872.87 and the JSE Index advanced by 666.86 points to 289,618.13.
Trading on the Main Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange ended on Tuesday with as 9 advanced, 10 declined and 9 traded with prices unchanged.
The securities with the largest price changes include, Caribbean Cement with a fall of $1.80 to $31.20 and Scotia Group with a gain of 90 cents to end at $51.50.
Market activity ended with 2,910,640 shares valued at $68,467,853, in contrast to 4,327,589 shares valued at $91,755,917 on Monday.
Scotia Group with 733,630 units traded was the leading security trading followed by Ciboney Group with 474,739 units and Sagicor Real Estate Fund with 337,800 units.
The market closed with average of 111,948 units trading with an average of $2,633,379 for each security traded. In contrast to 160,281 units for an average of $3,398,367 on Tuesday. The average volume and value for the month to date amounts to 161,245 units valued at $3,699,796 and previously, 181,777 units valued at $2,865,105. In contrast, January closed with average of 349,084 units at an average of $5,801,440 for each security traded.
Traded in the US dollar market ended with Margaritaville lost 2 cents and settled at 19 US cents with 4,780 units and Proven Investments exchanging 14,213 ordinary shares, as the price closed at 22 US cents. The total value of US$4,070 and the JSE US Equities Index rose 85 points to 168.60.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 10 stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and 2 with lower offers.
For more details of market activities see – Moderate JSE main market trading – Tuesday.

Another fall in Jamaican dollar – Tuesday

The Jamaican dollar continue the recent decline in value against the United States dollar on Tuesday ending with a rise of 4 cents while the rate paid by dealers increased by 92 cents.
Inflows of all currencies, totaled US$36.98 million, versus US$31.68 million on Monday with the selling of US$32.70 million in contrast to US$29.73 million previously.
In US dollar trading, dealers sold US$30.91 million at an average of $127.15 at the close, compared to US$27.95 million at an average of $127.11 on Monday. Purchases of the US currency by dealers, amounted to US$33.64 million at an average of $125.60 at the close, compared to US$28.27 million at an average of $124.68.
At mid-day on Tuesday dealers purchased US$11.85 million at an average rate of J$125.72 and sold US$9.85 million at an average of J$126.96. On Monday at midday dealers purchased US$11.23 million at an average rate of J$125.35 and sold US$6.62 million at an average of J$127.42.
The selling rate on Tuesday, for the Canadian dollar rose to J$100.62 from J$100.20 at the close on Monday, the selling rate for the British Pound increased to J$176.40 from J$174.84 previously and the euro declined in value against the Jamaican dollar at J$156.92 to buy the European common currency, versus the prior selling rate of J$157.70.

Jamaican dollar slip again vs US$ – Monday

The Jamaican dollar continue the recent decline in value against the United States dollar on Monday ending with a rise of 9 cents while the rate paid by dealers dropped by $1.08.
Inflows of all currencies, totaled US$31.68 million, versus US$54.17 million on Friday with the selling of US$29.73 million in contrast to US$44.95 million on Friday.
In US dollar trading, dealers sold US$27.95 million at an average of $127.11 at the close, compared to US$43.56 million at an average of $127.02 on Friday. Purchases of the US currency by dealers, amounted to US$28.27 million at an average of $124.68 at the close, compared to US$51.60 million at an average of $125.77.
At mid-day on Monday dealers purchased US$11.23 million at an average rate of J$125.35 and sold US$6.62 million at an average of J$127.42. On Friday at midday dealers purchased US$26.14 million at an average rate of J$126.23 and sold US$17.86 million at an average of J$126.86.
The selling rate on Monday, for the Canadian dollar rose to J$100.20 from J$99.78 at the close on Friday, the selling rate for the British Pound fell to J$174.84 from J$177.51 previously and the euro declined in value against the Jamaican dollar at J$157.70 to buy the European common currency, versus the prior selling rate of J$158.71.

BOJ cuts rates again

Add your HTML code here...

 

Bank of Jamaica cuts the overnight policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent effective February 2, the third reduction within three months.
The reflects the Bank’s assessment that inflation for the next eight quarters should remain within the target of 4 per cent to 6 percent and comes against the back ground of a sharp fall in Treasury bill rates last week, with sign of a fall to 3 percent before too long.
The central bank cuts the overnight rate to 3 percent in January from 3.25 percent that it was reduced to, in November last year.
The central bank stated that the “outlook for inflation reflects the expectation for continued fiscal consolidation in line with the fiscal rules. Recovery in the real economy continues to be sluggish even as projections show a modest acceleration in economic growth over the next two years. Inflation expectations remain low and broadly anchored around the Bank’s target. One upside risk to inflation is that overheating in the US will support higher demand for Jamaica’s goods and services. Strong growth in the US may also prompt tighter monetary conditions there but the pass through of this effect to the domestic economy may be ameliorated by continued reductions in Jamaica’s sovereign risk premium.”
The Bank further stated that the “decision to lower the policy rate is aimed at supporting accelerated expansions in credit and economic output. The key macroeconomic indicators continue to reflect positive trends. International reserves continue to expand, the current account of the balance of payments is projected to remain at sustainable levels and the fiscal accounts remain strong. The persistence of excess liquidity conditions in the domestic money market also continues to signal reductions in market interest rates.”

Elite list on Junior Market but no trade – Tuesday

Elite Diagnostics fresh from a recent initial Public Issue that was heavily oversubscribed failed to record a trade at the close of the market on Tuesday but investors put through trades in the market up to $3.30 with 391,447 shares which were canceled at the close.
Elite can trade up to $3.38 on Wednesday. At the end of trading, the stock close with bids to buy 2.95 million shares at $2.60, 30 percent higher than the IPO price of $2. Elsewhere, Caribbean Producers traded 20 million shares at $4.30 and Iron Rock Insurance traded 3.9 million units at $3 on a day of heightened volume.
The Junior Market index advanced 11.92 points to close at 2,883.68 on Tuesday, as the prices of 5 securities advanced, 8 declined and 5 remained unchanged.
The market closed with 18 securities changing hands, resulting in 24,250,087 shares valued at $100,904,262 trading, compared to 20 securities trading on Monday with 6,699,330 shares valued at $22,327,925 securities changing hands.
Trading ended with an average of 1,347,227 units for an average of $5,605,792 in contrast to an average of 334,967 units averaging $1,116,396 on Monday. An average of 806,402 units at an average value of $1,779,476 traded, and previously 211,318 units at an average value of $1,500,635. In contrast, January closed with an average of 122,386 shares, valued at $489,704 for each security traded.
IC bid-offer Indicator|At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 7 stocks ending with the bid higher than the last selling price and 3 with lower offers.
At the close of the market, Blue Power concluded trading 84 cents higher at $33.85, with 140 units, Caribbean Cream ended trading with a loss of 10 cents at $4.90, with 711,797 shares, Caribbean Flavours traded with a loss of 1 cent at $10.89, with 2,700 stock units, Caribbean Producers finished trading with a loss of 10 cents at $4.30, with 20,002,400 units, Dolphin Cove finished 85 cents higher at $16.85, with 3,868 stock units. FosRich Group traded 1 cent higher at $2.51, with 19,710 shares, General Accident finished trading at $2.80, with 10,450 shares, GWest Corporation closed at $2.74, with 1,540 stock units, Honey Bun ended at $5.25, with 9,227 units. Iron Rock concluded trading at $3, with 3,192,000 shares, Jetcon Corporation ended trading at $4.60, with 300 stock units, Knutsford Express closed with a loss of 1.90 cents at $13.10, with 3,330 shares, Lasco Distributors ended 15 cents higher at $4.50, with 39,144 shares. Lasco Financial concluded trading with a loss of 5 cents at $5.20, with 39,231 stock units, Lasco Manufacturing finished 75 cents higher at $4.45, with 76,794 units, Main Event settled with a loss of 4 cents at $5.76, with 42,810 shares, Stationery and Office finished trading with a loss of 11 cents at $5.40, with 56,198 stock units and tTech ended with a loss of 60 cents at a 52 weeks’ low at $5, with 38,448 shares changing hands.
Prices of securities trading for the day are those at which the last trade took place.

Scotia Premium Growth up 37% in 2017

Scotia Investments was the top performing unit trust in 2017.

The Jamaica stock market enjoyed strong growth between 2015 and 2017 with several stocks recording more than 100 percent gains in each of the years. The vast majority of Jamaicans have not participated in the gains offered by the market.
The vast majority of Jamaicans have not enjoyed the benefits of investing directly in the stock market because they do not fully understand it while some are just scared to lose their money. Many investors have taken the hassle or concerns out of investing directly in stocks by investing in equity based unit trust schemes that have delivered better gains than those in the fixed income market.
For while the combined market index of the Jamaica Stock Exchange racked up gains of 43 percent in 2017, the top performing equity based fund, Scotia’s Premium Growth Fund recorded gains of 37 percent for their investors in 2017 on top of a 25 percent gain in 2016. The Scotia Fund displaced Barita’s Capital Growth Fund, the 2016 front runner that ended at number 6 in 2017, delivering a 21.5 percent return, down slightly from 26.7 percent in 2016
Many investors have benefit from the strong performance of the local stock market in a number of ways. Pension funds that a large number of Jamaicans are members of, hold shares of many companies on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE). There are also insurance company funds that rely on the shares as part of their investment portfolios. The National Insurance Scheme also invests in these companies and many more Jamaicans benefit from the market’s performance than they may be aware of. Others persons invest through unit trusts to enjoy the growth in the market and thus lower their risk. How does this work?

Barita Unit Trust equity drop from #1 in 206 to 6th spot in 2017 with a gain of 21.5%

A unit trust is a pooled investment scheme that allows anyone without expert knowledge and time to invest in a diverse portfolios of most stocks, to invest in them and therefore benefit from the gains that the funds can deliver. The investments, which comprise local and foreign equities, bonds, corporate paper, government securities, real estate, among others, are professionally managed to optimize gains for the investor.
Investing in a unit trust is an attractive option as the portfolios are not only diverse but they also cater to those with or without an appetite for risk. A few of the benefits to be derived are tax free gains, depending on the portfolio, lower levels of market volatility given the mix of securities in each portfolio as well as other perquisites.
From year to year, the performance of investments in equity based unit trust funds may in part reflect the highs and lows of the economy, the percentage share of investments in the local stock market shares and fixed income funds. Most importantly, the management of the funds can make a big difference as can be seen from the varied performance of funds in Jamaica. Additionally, in recent years there have been new players entering the market and new products being offered, thereby creating greater diversity so as to capture new investors and a greater share of the market of the non-investing market.
At present, there are eight schemes managed locally, namely Barita Unit Trust, JMMB Fund Managers, JN Fund Managers, NCB Capital Markets, Proven Fund Managers, Sagicor Investments, Scotia investments Jamaica and  Victoria Wealth Management. All offer varied slate of funds denominated in Jamaican dollars and US dollars. Sagicor Investments has fifteen (15) portfolios, the most diverse of all, followed by Barita Unit Trust, JMMB and NCB, VM, Scotia and newcomer Proven.
Funds under management as at October 2017 stood at $229 billion with Sagicor still commanding the lion’s share with Scotia and NCB holding their double-digit portion while the others shared the remainder of the pie.
In the next article, IC Insider.com will look at the performance of the unit trust equities’ portfolio in 2017 compared to previous years to give investors a better view of the best performing funds.

Trinidad stocks inched higher – Tuesday

Market activity on the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange ended on Tuesday with trading in 19 securities with 4 trading 5 units or less, against 16 trading on Monday. The market closed with 3 stocks advancing, 1 declining and 15 remaining unchanged.
IC bid-offer Indicator|At the end of trading, on Tuesday, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 5 stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and 4 with lower offers, an indication of a greater level of stability in the market.
Trading ended with 305,086 shares with a value of $4,018,435, compared to 74,204 shares with a value of $1,358,010, changing hands.
At close the Composite Index gained 0.33 points on Tuesday to 1,269.97, the All T&T Index rose 0.24 points to 1,701.21 while Cross Listed Index added 0.06 points to close at 113.18.
Gains|Agostini’s concluded trading and rose 1 cent to finish at a 52 weeks’ high of $20.87, trading just 2 shares, Scotiabank added 1 cent to complete trading at $61.72, with 2,802 stock units changing hands and strong>Trinidad & Tobago NGL increased 48 cents and finished at $27.50, with 6,833 units changing hands.
Losses| LJ Williams B share ended trading 5 cents lower at $0.70, trading 200 shares.
Firm Traded| Angostura Holdings concluded trading at $15.67, with 2,127 stock units changing hands Ansa Mcal ended at $60, with a mere 2 units trading, Ansa Merchant finished at $40, trading just 2 shares, Clico Investments concluded trading at $20, with 19,063 units, First Caribbean International Bank ended at $9.30, trading 946 shares. First Citizens finished at $32.10, trading 3,108 shares, Grace Kennedy closed trading at $3.40, with 161,520 units, Massy Holdings ended at $47, with 25,428 stock units changing hands. National Enterprises finished at $9.65, with only 5 units trading. National Flour completed trading at $1.90, trading 845 shares, NCB Financial Group closed at $6.60, trading 22,620 shares, Point Lisas concluded trading at $3.81, with 29,514 units, Sagicor Financial traded 2,150 units at $7.82, Trinidad Cement closed at $3.50, trading 16,036 shares and West Indian Tobacco finished at $88.50, with 11,883 stock units changing hands.
Prices of securities trading for the day are those at which the last trade took place.

Main market stocks can gain 40% in 2018

Chart of main market showing the market trading in an upward sloping channel with the market currently trading just below the upper resistance line.

Last year was a great one for Jamaican stocks but an assessment of the market suggests that 2018 could be a grand year as well with overall price gains likely to be in excess of 40 percent.
Based on projected earnings for 2018, the average PE ratio suggests that the main market stock prices should grow by 26 percent. Falling interest rates could add another 20 percent to gains during the year, bringing overall gains to be in excess of 40 percent.
Technical readings of the market have the main market heading initially to around 390,000 points or 23 percent ahead of the December close, for the all Jamaica Index, before resistance sets in. Before moving much higher, later on.
Currently, the main market is caught in a wedge and trading just below the upper end of channel that can be traced to late 2015. The wedge could hold the market in consolidation mode for a short time, a month or two, before breaking out, most likely to the upside. (See Chart of market index.)
Last year was a great one for Jamaican stocks, with 14 of the 64 ordinary shares of companies that were listed prior to the December new listings, rising 100 percent or more and 16 rising between 50 and 81 percent.
IC Insider.com projects that many of the main market heavy weights will find it tough to repeat the strong gains they enjoyed in 2017, if that is the case, their impact on the market index is likely to be less than for 2017. Another factor that could make a repeat of 2017 tough, is the movement of interest rates. Last year, Treasury bill rates fell 29 percent from 6.56 percent to 4.83 percent, that level of decline, is unlikely to happen in 2018, even as some of the decline in the latter part of 2017 is yet to be fully reflected in the prices of stocks to date and should positively affect prices in 2018. IC Insider.com is forecasting rates on 182 days Treasury bill hitting 3 percent by the end of the 2018 first quarter. New listings could help move the indices in 2018, the likely impact is unknown at this point.
There are a number of other factors at play that are set to impact the market. Increasing employment is taking place with the highest number of persons employed in the country’s history. Attendant with that is the sharp fall in unemployment from more than 16.3 percent in 2013, to just over 10 percent in 2017. The annual net employment is growing around 30,000 persons per year and that could rise as the economy gains steam. This will mean more spending and increased tax collection for government. Alpart resumption of Alumina production is a big positive for the overall economy, for increased government revenues and more demand for local goods and services, some of which are provided by listed companies. The tourism sector is enjoying strong growth, apart from increasing foreign exchange intake for the country, will have direct impact on Jamaica Producers and Sagicor X Fund. Jamaica seems to be going through a construction boom with several new buildings under construction, Caribbean Cement and Berger Paints should benefit considerably from such developments.
Lower interest rates will reduce cost for many companies and revaluation of the Jamaican dollar also means lower cost but could result in lower revenues in some cases. More listings on the stock market will result in increased fee income for JSE and brokerage houses, from increased trading volumes.
The TOP 10 stocks include a few surprises while there are others that sit just outside the top stocks that investors may still want to keep a keen eye on. Investors should be looking beyond 2018 as medium term gains beyond 2018 could be strong for stocks that will benefit from current developments long term.
The TOP 10 selection is selling well below the average PE of the Main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange at just over 6.3 versus nearly 12 at the end of 2017. The hallmark of successful investing is buy low so one can sell high that is why the huge discount of the TOP 10 make them compelling choices. Successful investing is to work to be on top of the market so current sexy stocks are not the ones likely to be in the IC Insider.com’s list.
Barita Investments has moved more into fee based income and that is working well for them, with sharp growth, while net interest income stagnates. The prospects for continued strong growth in fee income continues with more investors seeking better returns than in the fixed interest market. The company should see a change in ownership soon and that could see a more aggressive approach to management that could optimize returns from exiting business and newer lines. Unrealized gains on investment ought to be factored into its earnings in valuing the stocks and that would boost its value considerably, the market is not paying attention.
Berger Paints is set to be a big winner with increasing sales coming from a buoyant construction sector resulting in increased profit and what IC Insider.com expects to be a healthy dose of dividend payments. It could become the next Carreras form a dividend yield standpoint but with growing profits. The company will benefit from lowering of overhead cost which was evident in 2017.
Jamaica Broilers continues to grow organically and from new business being acquired. Growth will continues as the Haitian market deliver greater returns form a growing market while the poultry demand in Jamaica continues to grow.
Caribbean Cement will benefit from lower operating cost, increased sales and a planned cut in financing of the lease which is said will cut hundreds of millions of dollars out of it cost that could come close to $2 per share per annum.
Palace Amusement Company, currently enjoying sell out cinemas with block busters hit is one of those unusual choices. It enjoys minimal trading but it could surprise on the upside if all goes well. Growth in the economy and increased employment will help to boost patronage going forward and will aid in profit growth as well.
JMMB Group put out outstanding Q3 results with a 39 percent increase in profit and strong gains in revenues, auguring well for 2019 outcome.

JMMB Group Q3 profit jumped 39% in 2018

The growth potential remains strong and investors in the stock will reap rich rewards down the road. Just one stock that requires patience. By the way Fees and commission income jumped an impressive 71 percent to $512 million in the quarter and 53 percent in the nine months, over the similar period in 2016 and should continue to do so going forward.
Radio Jamaica continues to disappoint with below expected revenues and profit. It could return to favour but needs to generate more income from advertising. This is one to accumulate for a payoff down the road.
The other three stocks, Sterling Investments, Grace Kennedy and Sagicor Group are undervalued and could deliver some decent returns to patient investors.
Below the TOP 10 are strong candidates to deliver decent returns this year and beyond, the list includes NCB Financial that is on a strong growth trajectory and recently listed Wisynco Group that should generate earnings around $1.10 for the 2019 fiscal year that starts in July.

Gains for JSE main market – Monday

Trading on the main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange ended on Monday with JSE All Jamaican Composite Index climbing 1,009.19 points to 317,140.96 and the JSE Index gaining 919.48 points to 288,951.27.
Market activity ended with 4,327,589 shares valued at $91,755,917 changing hands, in contrast to 3,062,698 shares valued at a mere $31,052,068 on Friday.
The major contributors to the total volume in the market was JMMB Group with 3,074,791 shares traded with the next being Wisynco Group with 282,109 units.
Main and US market activities ended with moderate trading levels, leading to prices of 11 securities rising, 9 falling and 8 trading firm as 29 securities changed hands, including just 1 from the US market versus 28 that traded on Friday.
The securities with the largest price changes include, Grace Kennedy with a gain of $1 to $44, Kingston Wharves up $1 to $42 and PanJam Investment rose 95 cents to $41 and Jamaica Producers lost $1.77 to $15.50.
The US market closed with Proven Investments exchanging 7,978 ordinary shares, as the price gained 1 cent to close at 22 US cents, with a value of US$1,722 and the JSE US Equities Index rose 2.75 points to 167.75.
Trading closed with an average of 160,281 units valued at an average of $3,398,367 for each security traded. In contrast to 117,781 units valued at an average of $1,194,310 on Friday. The average volume and value for the month to date amounts to 181,777 units valued at $2,865,105 and previously, 183,585 units valued at $2,815,964. In contrast, January closed with average of 349,084 units at an average of $5,801,440 for each security traded.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer reading shows 9 stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and 1 with a lower offer.
For more details of market activities see –JMMB dominates JSE trading.

JMMB dominates JSE trading

Market activity ended with only 4,327,589 shares valued at $91,755,917 changing hands as 27 securities traded ending with 10 securities rising, 9 falling and 8 trading firm.
Trading in JMMB Group accounted for 71 percent of the volume of shares traded for the day. Trading led to gains in the market indices. The JSE All Jamaican Composite Index gained 1,009.19 points to 317,140.96 and the JSE Index advanced by 919.48 points to end at 288,951.27.
In the main market activity, Berger Paints ended with a loss of 49 cents at $17.50, with 633 stock units, Cable & Wireless concluded trading 1 cent higher at $1.37, with 190,477 units, Carreras finished with a gain of 44 cents at $10.95, with 35,877 shares, Caribbean Cement jumped $2.32 to close at $33, with a mere 2,525 shares, Ciboney Group ended trading with a loss of 7 cents to 25 cents, with 20,000 shares, with the stock trading ex-dividend of 34 cents. Grace Kennedy traded 25 cents higher at $44.25, with 19,093 stock units, Jamaica Broilers finished trading with a rise of 50 cents at $18.60, as 8,066 units were exchanged, Jamaica Producers lost 50 cents at $15, with 126,900 shares trading, Jamaica Stock Exchange fell 29 cents to $6.70, with 3,300 shares. JMMB Group concluded trading at $25, with 3,074,791 shares, Kingston Wharves settled 60 cents higher at $42.60, trading 15,526 units, Mayberry Investments ended trading with a loss of 49 cents to $5.50, as 57,345 shares were exchanged, NCB Financial Group slipped 48 cents to $99.52, with 22,553 shares. PanJam Investment lost 45 cents to end at $40.55, with 46,642 units, Portland JSX concluded trading at $10, with 30,650 shares, Pulse Investments finished at $1.80, as 25,000 shares changed hands, Radio Jamaica settled at $1.12, with 10,174 shares. Sagicor Group ended trading at $36, with 14,598 stock units, Sagicor Real Estate Fund settled with a loss of 85 cents at $14.05, with 175,214 shares, Salada Foods traded $1.05 higher to $11, with 10,000 units, Scotia Group finished trading and gained 5 cents to $50.60, with 100 shares, Supreme Ventures ended at $12, trading 8,840 stock units. Victoria Mutual Investments finished 2 cents higher at $4.12, with 136,776 units, Wisynco Group traded 282,109 units but lost 20 cents to end at $10.49 and In the main market preference segment, JMMB Group 7.5% closed at $1.02, with 300 shares, 138 Student Living ended at $6, with 100 shares, Proven Investments 8.25% settled 4 cents higher at $5.09, with 10,000 units changing hands.
Prices of securities trading for the day are those at which the last trade took place. For more details of market activities, see “Gains for JSE main market stocks – Monday.”