Inflation lowest in 32 years in Jamaica

January 15, 2016 by
Fuel prices at the pumps in May 2015.

Fuel prices at the pumps in May 2015.

Prices in Jamaica rose during 2015 by their lowest in 32 years. One has to go back to 1983 to find a lower rate of increase with the rate for that year was up by 2.964 percent.

Last year prices increased 3.66 percent with the rate of increase in December being 0.2 percent. A major factor in the deceleration in average prices, is the sharp fall in the price of petroleum prices on the world market as well as some other imported commodities. The decline would have been even lower but for the fact the devaluation of the Jamaican dollar would have pushed up the prices of some goods or prevented some from falling even lower than they did. in addition increased taxation also prevented prices from falling further.

In 2015, the Jamaican dollar lost 5 percent of its value with about half of the increase feeding into inflation.

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1% growth in 2015 for Jamaica

January 1, 2016 by

Manufacturing grew sharply

Manufacturing grew sharply

The Jamaican economy should record growth of about 1 percent for 2015 based on an increase of 1.5 percent in the September quarter last year over the similar quarter in 2014. The performance albeit small, would be an improvement over 2014 when the Jamaican economy eked out growth of 0.4 percent compared to the previous year.
In the first half of 2014, the Jamaican economy enjoyed growth 1.75 percent with negative growth in the latter half. Growth in 2015 will be the third year of increased output for the economy with very moderate growth for 2013 around 0.2 percent. Importantly, the latest data may be indicating that growth may be picking up pace and could be above 1.5 percent from now onwards, from very low levels, for the past three years.
Preliminary data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) shows the 2015 performance in the latest quarter contrasting with an increase of just 0.6 percent in the second quarter, over the similar quarter of 2014 in real terms. Statin had earlier in the year reported that the Jamaican economy grew by 0.4 percent in the first quarter compared to the similar quarter of 2014.
The 2015 September’s quarter performance “was due to 3.9 percent increase in the
Goods Producing industries and 0.7 percent in the Services industries. All industries within the Goods Producing industries recorded increased output except Mining & Quarrying which declined by 0.9 percent,” Statin stated.
FuelAgriculture, Forestry & Fishing grew by 4.2 percent, Manufacturing grew by 7.9 percent resulting from higher output levels in the Food, Beverages & Tobacco by 3.3 percent and Other Manufacturing 14.8 percent, due to an 82 percent increase in petroleum refining. This reflected a return to normal productive activity at the petroleum refinery during this quarter, as the plant was closed for operational maintenance in August and September 2014.
Construction increased by 0.7 percent, due mainly Statin said “to increased output from non-residential projects, which includes the continued expansion in hotels as activities in civil engineering works declined for the period”. Output from the Mining & quarrying industry was constrained by mechanical problems at one of the plants as well as the quality of bauxite mined, the report stated.
Improved performance in the Services industries resulted from increased output in all industries except the producers of Government services which declined by 0.1 percent. Increased value added was recorded for: Electricity & Water Supply up by 3.1 percent, Hotels & Restaurants 1.3 percent, Transport, Storage & Communication 1.5 percent, Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery & Equipment 0.5 percent, Finance & Insurance Services 0.6 percent, Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities and Other Services 0.5 percent.
The Hotels & Restaurants industry continues to benefit from higher tourist arrivals from two of the main markets; the United States of America (USA) and Europe.

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Remittances slowed in September

December 29, 2015 by

US$ 100Remittance inflows for the 2015 to September were affected by a slowdown in inflows in September ending with US$1.65 billion, for an increase of US$51 million or 3.2 per cent over the nine months to September 2014.
The slowdown is a continuation from August, when inflows increased marginally.
After allowing for in outflows of US$167.7 million for the nine months to September, this year compared to US$170.4 last year, net remittances for the year to September, were US$1.48 billion, an increase of US$48 million or just 3.3 per cent over the similar period of 2014.
Gross remittance inflows for September 2015 were US$184 million, an increase of US$1.4 million or 0.7 per cent versus the same month in 2014. Remittance inflows also slowed in August 2015, with inflows amounting to US$186 million, for an increase of just US$1.7 million over August 2014. Total Remittance Outflows amounted $19.9 million slightly higher than the US$19.7 for September 2014, leaving net inflows were US$163.7 million, an increase of US$1.5 million, relative to the corresponding period of 2014.

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Treasury bill rates drop

December 18, 2015 by

Rates of Government of Jamaica Treasury bills fell on the 91 day and 192 days instruments the government have been auctioning for some time, but rose slightly on the 28 days tenner as the amount applied for was well below the amount of $400 million offered.

182 days T-bill rates are down more than 50% since March 2014

182 days T-bill rates are down more than 50% since March 2014

The fall have brought the 182 days instrument down by 15.4 percent since December 2014, to 6.04 percent and the 91 days by 14 percent, down to 5.97 percent. The 28 day instrument is down by just 6 percent to 5.96 percent over the similar period.
Treasury bill rates have declined by 50.78 percent since peaking in March 2014 for the 182 day instrument based on the average rate on the latest offering. At the December auction, the average rate on the 91 days bills fell 18.8 basis points compared to the November rate. The 182 days instrument enjoyed only a 0.5 basis point fall and the 28 day instrument rose by 5.5 basis points.
A total of only $347,996,800 chased the $400 million on offer for the 28 days bills, $717 million went after the $400 million on offer for the 90 days instruments and $557 million went after the $400 million offered for 182 days.

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Remittance inflows slowed in August

December 6, 2015 by

FX_USPoundRemittance inflows for Jamaica slowed in August 2015 with inflows amounting to US$186 million, for an increase of just US$1.7 million over August last year but after accounting for outflows, net remittances were US$165 million, an increase of US$1 million or 0.7 percent compared to the corresponding period of 2014.
The growth in net remittance inflows reflected an increase in gross remittances, partially offset by an increase in remittance outflows, the country’s central bank reported.
Net remittances for calendar year to August 2015 were US$1.32 billion, representing growth of US$46 million or 3.6 percent versus the similar period of 2014. The outturn for the period, reflected an increase in gross inflows, which was partially offset by a growth in outflows, with total inflows being US$1.47 billion, representing an increase of US$49 million or 3.5 percent. Remittance inflows for the period were above the corresponding pre-crisis outturn for 2008.
The USA contributed US$919 million to inflows, the UK accounted for US$214 million, Canada $151 million, Cayman US$84 and other countries made up US$100 million of inflows for the period to August this year.

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GOJ rakes in taxes hikes capital spend

December 2, 2015 by

MOFstrong>Grants expected by government was off by $3 billion to October this year but a $6.7 billion jump in tax collection more than made up for shortfall and helped deliver a budget beating performance by $3 billion.
The positives on the revenue front helped to create a smaller deficit than planned by $14 million, an improvement of 44 percent.
With the fiscal year unwinding and the revenue gains, plus cost reduction elsewhere, the Government cut the under spending on the capital front from $6.5 billion at the end of September to $3.5 billion at the end of October. Interest savings keeps on climbing and now stands at $4.6 billion up from $3.4 billion at the end of September and could well end up around $10 billion by March next year. Wages that was underspent by $3.9 billion is down to just $1.6 billion below budget.
At the end of October the fiscal was deficit was $18 billion and the primary surplus $53.77 billion versus $44.3 billion planned.

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Remittance inflows grow for Jamaica

November 14, 2015 by

US$ 100Remittance inflows for Jamaica rose 3.7 percent or US$6.9 million to US$190 million in July this year, over July 2014. For the year to date period total remittance inflows climbed 3.8 percent or US$47.5 million to US$1.28 billion.
After accounting for outflows, net remittances were US$168 million for July, an increase of US$6.9 million or 4.3 percent relative to the corresponding period of 2014. The growth in net remittance inflows reflect an increase in gross remittances while remittance outflows remained unchanged.
Net remittances for 2015 to-date are US$1.154 billion, an increase of US$45 million or 4.1 percent over the corresponding period of 2014. The out-turn for the review period reflected an increase in gross inflows, which was partially offset by a growth in outflows, Bank of Jamaica reported.
The flows for 2015 should exceed the US$2.157 billion the country received in 2014, if the trend continues.

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Jamaica’s Unemployed down slightly in June

November 7, 2015 by

theGoodNewsJamaica’s unemployment rate for June 2015 saw an improvement over the similar period of 2014. According to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), 13.1 percent of the labour force were out of work when their Labour Force Survey was carried out, a reduction from the 13.8 percent level in the 2014 period.
Over the period, “the unemployment rate for males declined from 9.9 percent to 9.3 percent and for females from a very high 18.4 percent to 17.7 percent”, STATIN stated.
The number of unemployed persons decreased by 6,300 or 3.5 percent, moving from 179,300 persons in June 2014 to 173,000 in June this year. A total of 1,147,500 persons were employed at the time of the survey, 23,200 more than the 1,124,300 in June 2014. The Labour Force increased by 16,800 or 1.3 percent over the 1,303,700 recorded in June 2014, to 1,320,500 in 2015.In June 2015, the number of persons who were classified as being Outside the Labour Force fell by 12,700 or1.6 percent to 765,400 from 778,100 in June 2014.
Employment_jobsThe Occupation group, Clerks, saw 9,400 more persons or 9.1 percent being employment, raising the numbers employed from 103,000 in June 2014 to 112,400 at the middle of this year. Increases in employment were also observed in Craft and Related Trades Workers with an increase of 3.4 percent from 136,200 persons in June 2014 to 140,900. Employment in the group, Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities increased by 14,400 persons or 22.4 percent while the group Hotels and Restaurants Services increased by 8.8 percent or 7,300 persons.

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GOJ rakes in $5b more tax revenues

November 3, 2015 by

MOFGovernment of Jamaica raked in 2.6 percent more tax revenues amounting to $4.9 billion over the $190 billion budgeted to reach $195 billion. Grants fell $3 billion short of budget of $6 billion, and non tax revenues by $800 million resulting in nearly half a billion excess revenue over budget, for the nine months to September.
At the end of the period the fiscal deficit projected, was cut in half, with a deficit of $14 billion. The primary surplus measured in at $51 billion some $11 billion better than planned.
The improved revenues flows came mainly from corporate profit tax of $1.9 billion, SCT on local goods $1 billion, tax on interest $2.6 billion, GCT and SCT on imports of $2 billion. PAYE was off by $474 million, telephone tax $400 million, custom duty $800 million and bauxite levy $500 million.
On the expenditure side, recurrent payments are down by $7.3 billion fueled mainly by $3.4 billion reduction in interest payments and $3.9 million in wages. Capital expenditure is under spent by $6.5 billion.

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Treasury bill rates down again

October 24, 2015 by

Rates of Government of Jamaica Treasury bills which have been on the decline since March 2014 is down again in the latest issue dated October. Rates fell 13 basis points on the 182 days instruments as $1.043 billion chased the $400 million on offer to end at 6.23 percent in September the rates declined by 14 basis points.
Rates were down 7.7 basis points on the 91 days instrument compared to a fall of 14 basis point in September, the average rate is 61.3 percent for October as $579 million chased the $400 million on offer.
Tbill cht 20-5-15At the October 14th auction, the 28 days Treasury bill average rate came out at 6.195 percent compared with 6.228 percent at the September auction. Unlike August when $707 million chased $400 million on offer in October only $328.75 million went after the $400 million offered. All applicants were accepted at rates that ranged between 5.1 percent and 6.75 percent.

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