Surplus in 4 months to July

Central government of Jamaica’s fiscal operations, rack up a tidy surplus, in contrast to a sizeable deficit budgeted to July this year, data on the government’s operations, recently released show.
This development is unusual at this time of the year when deficits are usually racked up until the last fiscal quarter, the period when surplus revenues are generated.
The surplus was helped by an $11.4 billion in capital inflows showing up as divestment proceeds/other and is boosted by a near $6 billion increase in recurring revenues over forecast and a $7 billion underspending thus ensuring a healthy surplus for the 4 months period amounting to $5.4 billion, against a budgeted deficit of $7 billion. The critical primary surplus a major benchmark of the IMF agreement rest, ended at $38.6 billion versus $29 billion planned.
Also contributing to the positive outcome was a cut in non-payroll expenditure of $6 billion, reduced interest cost of $3.2 billion and positive tax revenues of $5.4 billion. Corporate taxes rose 34 percent above forecast adding $3.3 billion more than the $10 billion planned but corporations are not paying over tax withheld on dividend with only $386 million being paid versus projection of $506 million. Special Consumption Taxes on import fell $2.8 billion while the tax on local production rose by $3.5 billion, from forecast and travel taxes providing $1 billion more than planned.

Big betting losses drop pushes SVL profits

Supreme Ventures profit rose sharply for the 2017 March quarter.

A huge fall in losses of Supreme Ventures sports betting, a fall of $82 million in operating expenses plus a 20 percent jump in revenues pushed profit up 51 percent to $416 million for the 2017 first quarter to March.
Profit before taxation grew by a much slower 39 percent, moving from $415 million in 2016 to $549 million in 2017. Earnings per stock unit ended the quarter at 15.8 cents up from 10.44 cents in 2016.
Sports betting lost just $9.5 million, sharply down from $68 million in the 2016 quarter, from $39 million fall in revenue, to $157 million, while Gaming that used to be a big loss maker chipped in with improved segment profit of $21 million, up from $10 million in 2016 with an increased revenue flow of $16 million to end $114 million. The group lost $19 million on its newly acquired subsidiary Caymanas Track, from revenues of $328 million. Caymanas Track Limited acquisition from the Government of Jamaica was effected on March 7. Lottery revenues rose from $8.8 billion to $10.4 billion for the quarter and contributed $556 million to profit up from $452 in the 2016 period.
Group revenues amounted to $13.4 billion, 20 percent higher than $11.2 billion in the corresponding period in 2016. Gross profit climbed 6 percent from $1.15 billion to $1.22 million. Administrative expenses rose 7 percent from $236 million to $252 million, finance cost fell from $40 million to $31 million.
SVL generated cash flows of $600 million in the quarter, up from just $49 million in 2016 as corporation taxes of $409 million paid in 2016 pulled down inflows for that period while tax payment for 2017 was just $121 million.
Shareholders’ Equity stands at $4 billion with borrowings at $380 million and cash and short term investments of $2 billion. Current assets amounted to $3 billion and current liabilities at $1.9 billion.
The Company is listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange and last traded at $6.38 for a PE of 11 based on estimated earnings of 60 cents for 2017, the stock could pock higher with the average market PE at 13 times this year’s estimated earnings.

Government of Jamaica ends year in surplus

Minister of Finance Audley Shaw pulled in revenues ahead of target.

Government of Jamaica ended the 2017 fiscal year with a surplus that flowed from a near $9 billion over performance in operating inflows and a reduction in expenditure to the tune of $5 billion.
The fiscal operations ended with a deficit of $3.5 billion nearly $14 billion better than forecast. $14.6 billion from divestments proceeds pushed the fiscal operations into a surplus of $11 billion. Although ending with a surplus, government had net borrowings $14 billion as $26 billion more was borrowed in the local market and $11 billion net was repaid in foreign currency loans.
Overall, government collected $515 billion compared with $506 billion projected for the fiscal year, with spending coming in at $503 billion down from $508 billion projected. The primary surplus originally projected at $123 billion, ended $13 billion better at $136 billion.
Helping with the boost revenues was Corporations’ payment of 14 percent more tax on profits or $6.4 billion over budget, Special Consumption rose by $4 billion or 29 percent above forecast and stamp duty on local transactions climbed 15 percent or $1.7 billion over forecast. On the other hand telephone tax fell nearly 23 percent to $4.2 billion.

GOJ revenues beating estimates

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Revenues for Government of Jamaica continue to outpace forecast, with the latest figures showing a 5.2 percent amounting to $17.4 billion increase over budget to December last year.
Revenues ended at $352 billion inclusive of capital inflows of $14.6 billion, compared with forecast of $334 billion. The main contributors company profit taxes and PAYE $2.4 billion each, and tax on interest, amounting to $2.8 billion. Special consumption taxes accounted for an increase of $2.3 billion, Education tax added $822 million, Stamp duties $1.3 billion and Custom Duties $1 billion. Travel and special consumption taxes and GCT on imports, cut $3.5 billion from forecast.
Capital spending is still running $5.4 billion below the target of $35 billion while other expenditure is under-spent by $3.7 billion, with wages down $5.2 billion and interest cost $3.9 billion, while other operating cost is up $4.3 billion over forecast.
The fiscal out turn, is a cut in the fiscal deficit by $26.6 billion, down to $23.7 billion.

Treasury bill rates down again

Rates of Government of Jamaica Treasury bills which have been on the decline since March 2014 is down again in the latest issue dated October. Rates fell 13 basis points on the 182 days instruments as $1.043 billion chased the $400 million on offer to end at 6.23 percent in September the rates declined by 14 basis points.
Rates were down 7.7 basis points on the 91 days instrument compared to a fall of 14 basis point in September, the average rate is 61.3 percent for October as $579 million chased the $400 million on offer.
Tbill cht 20-5-15At the October 14th auction, the 28 days Treasury bill average rate came out at 6.195 percent compared with 6.228 percent at the September auction. Unlike August when $707 million chased $400 million on offer in October only $328.75 million went after the $400 million offered. All applicants were accepted at rates that ranged between 5.1 percent and 6.75 percent.

GOJ income falls but fiscal on track

Peter PhillipsThe Jamaican government is on track to achieve their primary surplus target with the December data showing only half a billion positive balance over the budgeted target level, but that is well down on $6.2 billion excess achieved for the period to November.
The primary surplus at the end of December comes out at $66.5 billion and is up from November’s surplus of $54.4 billion. The excess over forecast was achieved although revenues are off by $10 billion, or more than $3 billion worse than the $6.8 billion at the end of November. Tax revenues fell short by $9.7 billion to November as economic measures bite, but non tax revenue was better than forecast by $2 billion and grants were off by $3 billion.
Tax on interest brought in $1.5 billion in revenue over budget and was up by 39 percent, PAYE rose by 4 percent or $2 billion to $49.9 billion. The shortfalls were mostly local GCT down by $5.4 billion or 10.6 percent to $5.5 billion. Corporation tax fell short by $6.6 billion or 30 percent, Special consumption tax dropped $1.7 billion or 19 percent
The wage bill that was on target to November shows $1.76 billion in savings to December, as government spent $121 billion on this item, interest cost is down by $4.5 billion to $95 billion and other cost fell by $671 million. Capital expenditure, underspent by $7.4 billion to November is now $8.3 billion below forecast or 31 percent reduction.
The fiscal deficit targeted at $33.87 billion is down by $5 billion to $28.9 billion thanks to cut in scheduled payments.

Guardian Holdings profit up

Guard GrpProfits for the nine months to September 2014 attributable to equity shareholders of Guardian Holdings grew 45 percent to TT$286 million or $88 million or over the comparable period last year. The 2014 results to date translate Earnings per share (EPS) of $1.23 compared to $0.85 for the same period last year.
For the September quarter, profit for Guardian shareholders was TT$103 million, an increase of 11.2 percent, from $91.38 million in 2013. The profit position flowed from a 29 percent increase in insurance underwriting activities, in the quarter and 15 percent year to date, but lower investment income for the latest quarter, pulled the grow of profit down.
The 2013 result was negatively impacted by an extra-ordinary loss of $31 million, resulting from the Government of Jamaica restructuring their debt. The 2013 results, when this loss is excluded, would end up with an increase of profits year-on-year of $58 million, or 25 percent.
”Investment opportunities continue to be a challenge and as a result, our investment income fell from $666 million to $602 million, a decline of $63 million. This decline was offset by a favourable movement in Fair Value gains of $100 million inclusive of the Jamaican NDX,” Management stated in their release accompanying the results.
Operating Expenses increased by $34 million or 5 percent, of which $19 million is related to the Pointe Simon project. In 2013, Pointe Simon expenses were capitalised as the project was in the construction stage. The Pointe Simon project consists of an office tower building, condominiums and a hotel. From 2014, in keeping with accounting regulation the expenses relating to the project is booked through the income statement since the project has entered the commercialisation phase. Without this change in treatment, our operating expenses would have increased 3 percent year on year.
Management stated that they “expect to conclude transactions for the disposal of the majority of our condominiums by year end. Demand continues to be good for retail space at Pointe Simon and we have begun the process of signing leases for this space. The sale of the hotel will be concluded by year-end and we look forward to its opening in the latter half of next year. We continue to close a number of small leases in our office tower and are in the process of negotiating two large leases.” The sales of this real estate project will inject funds into the group and provide income and increased profits in the last quarter of 2014 and beyond.
Guardian is listed on the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange and is primarily involved in life underwriting, general insurance and investments management.
Guardian Holdings stocks remains IC Insider BUY RATED.

PAYE gains can’t cover corporate shortfall

Peter PhillipsPAYE collections, outperformed forecast for September, by $620 million and $677 million, for the six months to September, this year, but that was inadequate to cover the $2.5 billion drop in corporate taxes, in the latest month, for government of Jamaica revenues.
At the end of August, corporations paid over $6.63 billion versus a projection for $8.8 billion, resulting in a shortfall of $2.18 billion, by the end of September, what should have been collections of $15.3 billion turned up to be only $10.65 billion, $4.7 billion short, resulting in a $2.5 billion shortfall, in the latest month alone. The underperformance for company tax collection, was the main reason why the revenue forecast of $156.5 billion for the six months period, suffered an increased shortage of $1.4 billion in tax revenues, bringing the year to date shortfall, to $7.33 billion. Overall revenue shortage, amounted to $7.13 billion, as grants fell short by $337 million in September, but non tax revenues outperformed forecast, by $400 million for the month.
Expenditure| Payment for expenses is well below target, as capital expenditure almost crawled to a halt in September, with only $590 million spent, raising the underspending for the year to date to $7.8 billion, up from $5.38 billion at the end of August. Programmes saw savings in payments of nearly $900 million, in the month, and wages and salaries was $350 million more, in the month, than planned, but there is still a reduction year to date, in this area.
At the end of September, the fiscal deficit of $18.95 billion was ahead of target by $6.3 billion, as the capital programmes have once more taken the bulk of the hit, as revenues fall short of target.

T-bills chased in September, push down rate

Government of Jamaica Treasury bill sample

Government of Jamaica Treasury bill sample

The amount of funds trying to find a home over the next 6 months, jumped sharply to $1,050,907,900 that chased, the $400 million 182 days Treasury bills offered for September, compared to $745,290,300 in August.
Investors are clearly seeing a continuing trend of lower rates into the future, and moved their focus to the longer end of the Treasury bill spectrum and less so on the shorter term ones. The offer of 182 days duration, matures on March 20 next year, will generate an average interest rate yield of 7.99887 percent, down from 8.11578 percent in August, 8.21982 percent at the July’s auction and 8.36502 percent for the June issue, of the same duration. At the May Treasury bill auction, the rate came out at 8.932 percent.
The Treasury bill for the period Friday, September 19, maturing on Friday, December 19 this year, for the duration of 91 days, attracted bids of $641,904,600 (August $639,068,500 and July $732,981,900) for the $400,000,000 on offer. The average yield came out at 7.46952 percent, slightly up on the 7.46767 percent average rate out turn in August. The rate for the June issue was 7.65893 percent and 8.2 percent in May, for the Treasury bill of same duration.

Ja interest rates on slow downward drift

TBills280x150Rates on Government of Jamaica Treasury Bills, have been on a slow drift downwards from levels attained earlier this year. The trend is expected to continue while the rate of exchange for the local dollar, remains fairly stable and inflation is kept under control.
The Treasury bill for the period Friday, August 22 to maturity on Friday, November 21 this year, for the duration of 91 days, attracted bids of $639,068,500, (July $732,981,900) for the $400,000,000 on offer, to yield an average of 7.46767 percent, down from 7.63643 percent average rate out turn in July. The arte for the June issue was 7.65893 percent and in May, the rate was 8.2 percent for the Treasury bill of same duration.
The offer for 182 days duration, matures on February 20 next year and will generate an average interest rate yield of 8.11578 percent down from 8.21982 percent at the July’s auction and 8.36502 percent for the June issue of the same duration. At the May Treasury bill auction, the rate came out was 8.932 percent. $745,290,300 went after the $400 million offered for the latest issue.
New BOJ CDs| At the same time, Bank of Jamaica is offering both US dollar denominated medium term Certificate of deposit instruments and local Jamaica dollar instrument to the market. The US dollar bonds are for an unlimited amount and will pay interest semi-annually.
The offerings are, BOJ FR USD-CD 2018K is for a duration of 4-years at a fixed coupon of 4.50 percent per annum. (ii) The offer of BOJ FR USD-CD 2019G is for 5-years and offers a fixed coupon of 5 percent per annum. (iii) The offer of BOJ FR USD-CD 2021 is for an unlimited amount. The tenor of this instrument is 7-years and offers a fixed coupon of 5.50 percent per annum.
(iv) The offer of BOJ VR-CD 2015AE is for an unlimited amount. The tenor of this instrument is 364-days. The instrument re-prices semi-annually at 0.25 percentage point above the six month GOJ Treasury Bill rate existing at the start of each re-pricing period. The initial coupon for the first six months will therefore be the six month GOJ Treasury Bill rate of 8.12 per cent, plus 0.25 percentage point.

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