Economy

Jamaica’s 2014 trade deficit falls

March 25, 2015 by IC Insider.com

Imports of petroleum fell

Jamaica’s expenditure on merchandise imports during January to November 2014 fell by US$280 million or 5 percent to US$5,287 million when compared to the same period in 2013. Earnings from total exports fell by US$109 million or 7.5 percent to US$1.35 billion. The trade deficit a narrowed to by 4.1 percent or US$171 million to US$3.94 billion, compared to the similar 2013 period.
Major contributors to the fall in imports were declines of Mineral Fuels with a decline of US$154 million or 7.9 per cent, food declined by US$51 million or 5.8 per cent, to US$837 million. Chemicals fell by US$130 million or 18.6 per cent, lower imports of ethanol products were the primary contributor to this decline. Beverages & Tobacco decreased by US$66 million, US$4 million or 6.1 percent below the US$71 million recorded in the similar 2013 period.

Bauxite mining

Increased imports took place in Machinery and Transport Equipment valued at US$847 million, which grew by US$14 million or 1.7 percent and Manufactured Goods grew by US$17 million or 3.1 percent to US$561 million.
Exports|Earnings from traditional exports increased up by US$19 million or 2.7 percent to US$739 million, due to increases in Mining and Quarrying but Non-Traditional domestic exports valued at US$549 million, fell 16.9 percent or US$111 million.

Filed Under: Economy, Feature Stories Tagged With: Economy, Jamaica Exports, Jamaica's trade deficit, Jamaican Imports, Petroleum imports

Jamaican economy fell 1.4% in Q3

January 2, 2015 by IC Insider.com

Agriculture was affected by drought and suffered a sharp contraction in GDP.

The Jamaican economy declined by 1.4 percent in the third quarter of 2014 compared to the similar quarter of 2013, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica is reporting (Statin). For the year to September the economy contracted by 0.8 percent.
Statin sated that the performance for the September quarter was negatively impacted by a 7.8 percent fall in the Goods Producing industries but the Service industries improved by 0.7 percent. When compared to the second quarter of 2014, output in the economy fell by 1.8 percent.
All industries within the Goods Producing industries, with the exception of Construction experienced lower levels of output. Reduced output was recorded in: Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 22.8 percent, Manufacturing 5.6 percent and Mining & Quarrying 2 percent. The Construction industry grew by 1.6 percent.
“The weak performance in the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing industry resulted from drought conditions experienced throughout the island. The decline in Manufacturing was mainly attributed to a 51.6 percent decline in petroleum refining. There was no production of petroleum products for two months of the review quarter as the refinery was closed for operational maintenance in August and September. Lower production in the Mining & Quarrying industry was due largely to a 3.2 percent fall in alumina production. However, crude bauxite production increased by 2.2 percent resulting from improved efficiency at the bauxite plant,” Statin said.

Petrojam closed its refinery in August & September affecting growth in the manufacturing sector

Increased output was recorded for all industries within the Services industries with the exception of Government Services, down 0.2 percent and Electricity & Water Supply, down 1.1 percent. Higher output levels were recorded for; Hotels & Restaurants 4.1 percent, Other Services 1.6 percent. Transport, Storage & Communication 1.1 percent, Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities 0.4 percent, Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery & Equipment 0.3 percent and Finance & Insurance Services 0.2 percent.

Filed Under: Economy Tagged With: Economy, Jamaica 2014 gdp performance, Petrojam, Statistical Institute of Jamaica

Jamaican prices fall expect more

December 16, 2014 by IC Insider.com

Prices increased for October, by a mere 0.1 percent over September this year, in line with the increases in February and June but above a negative 0.3 percent in April. For November, this year, The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) reveals that as at the Consumer Price contracted by 0.5 percent versus October 2014.
The November fall, represents the lowest inflation rate since the start of the 2014. The division ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ declined by 0.1 per cent, and was mainly due to lower prices for vegetables. A reduction in the cost of electricity and lower rates for water and sewage were the key factors influencing the division ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’, which declined by 3.6 percent. The latest inflation data brings the year to date level to 6.7 percent and the final number for 2014 should end up closer to 6 percent with the price of oil continuing to fall on the world market and local food products coming back in good quantities.

The fall in the price of oil helped in the negative price movement in November

IC Insider stated in November that “the October number brings the yearly inflation to 7.2 percent to date. The shortage of many locally grown food items, pushed up prices and inflation in the food category for the September by 2.1 percent, the worse monthly increase by far for the year. Supplies are coming back to normal and will moderate prices in this category, so there should be lowering of inflation here. The price of oil have fallen on the world market down to the mid US$70 range and local gas prices at the pumps, having declined sharply. The fall in world oil prices will be passed through to consumers in lower fuel rate by JPS. With all of these developments rest of the year should see negative inflation that may pull the full year rate well below 7%. The inflation rate for 2012 was 8.0 percent and in 2013, 9.5 percent.”

Filed Under: Breaking News, Economy, Feature Stories Tagged With: Economy, Fall in oil prices, Inflation in Jamaica, Statin

Trade deficit improvement loses steam in June

September 30, 2014 by IC Insider.com

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Jamaica’s trade deficit declined marginally during the first six months of 2014 ending at US$2.18 billion, compared to US$2.19 billion in the 2013 period, a decline of 0.3 percent, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica reported, today.
For the period up to May the trade deficit was US$125 million. Trade balance in June effectively wiped out the small positive gains to May.
For the six months period Jamaica imported goods valued at US$2.9 billion, a decrease of US$133 million or 4.4 percent compared to the same period in 2013. Total exports for the six months to June 2014, fell by US$125 million to US$729 million, down from US$854 million in the 2013 period.
The decline in imports was due mainly to a reduction in Mineral Fuels, Chemicals, Beverages & Tobacco, Animal & Vegetable Oils Fats.Imports of “Raw Materials and Intermediate Goods” decreased during the 2014 review period, and were valued at US$1.77 billion, compared to US$1.97 billion in the 2013 period, a 9.8 percent decrease.
Crude Oil imports amounted to US$413 million, moving down from US$451 million in the similar period of 2013, a decrease of 8.4 percent. Imports of Capital Goods (Excl. Motor Cars) increase from US$243 million in the 2013 period to US$264 million in the current year to June.

Filed Under: Breaking News, Economy, Feature Stories Tagged With: balance of trade, Economy, Jamaica Exports, Jamaica's imports, Jamaicas balance of trade

Better fiscal out turn to February

April 4, 2014 by IC Insider.com

The Government of Jamaica bettered the fiscal out turn to February by $2.9 billion compared to the budgeted target. The improved performance was the result of revenues for the 11 months declining by $18 billion versus the budgeted amount of $354 billion and expenditure was down as well by $20.9 billion.

For the year to date, revenues are 12 percent ahead of 2013 fiscal year out turn of $336 million. With the March figures to be reported in April, revenues for the full year should increase to end in line with the growth to date and be around $385 billion compared with $344 billion at the end of March last year, assuming no major unexpected inflows.

The results to date, along with the March inflows and with the target of a primary surplus of 7.5 percent for the fiscal year, should result in the fiscal out turn ending in surplus for the first time in many years. At the end of February, the primary surplus was at $78 billion or $34 billion below the target of $111 billion set at the start of the fiscal year. Achieving this target would result in a surplus of $10 billion.

On the surface there will be concerns that revenues for February at $31.3 billion are lower than for 2013 at $31.5 billion in spite of the increased levy of new taxes at the start of the fiscal year. The apparent poor performance in February this year is due to a big intake of $6.4 billion in withholding taxes on interest, while the 2013 figures include just $2 billion. But for this big one-off inflow, the 2013 revenues would be up 7 percent. Tax revenues are up by $27 billion or 10 percent for the eleven month period with the exclusion of withholding tax on interest.

Filed Under: Breaking News, Economy Tagged With: Deficit, Economy, GOJ

Early trade gains wiped out

April 4, 2014 by IC Insider.com

Jamaica closed out 2013 slightly worse off in the trading account than for 2012 as the trade deficit increased by $56 million. This fully reverses the gains enjoyed to November when the deficit was down by US$289 million.

The out turn for 2013 flowed from expenditure on merchandise imports declining by US$113 million to US$6.22 billion compared to 2012 and a fall in export earnings of US$168 million to reach US$1.56 billion. The trade deficit for 2013 amounted to US$4.66 billion compared to the US$4.6 billion recorded for 2012.

Up to November 2013, imports fell by US$392 million and exports fell by US$112 million resulting in the trade deficit falling by 6.2 percent compared to the similar period in 2012.

Overall imports for the 11 months to 2013 was US$5,664 million, down from US$6.06 billion in the 2012 and exports US$1,442 million, resulting in a trade deficit of US$4.22 billion.

Filed Under: Breaking News, Economy Tagged With: Deficit, Economy, Trade

Remittances up in January

April 2, 2014 by IC Insider.com

Jamaica continues to benefit from increased remittance flows as the countries that were negatively affected by the down turn in their economies in 2008 continue to mend.

Net remittances for January 2014 were US$138 million, an increase of US$8 million or 6.2 percent relative to the corresponding period of 2013. The growth in net remittance inflows reflect an increase in gross remittance inflows and a contraction in outflows.

Gross remittance inflows amounted to US$158 million, an increase of US$4 million or 2.7 percent compared to January last year. The rise in total remittance inflows emanated from an increase of US$6 million in inflows through Remittance Companies and partly offset by a reduction of US$1.4 million in inflows from Other Remittances.

The January increase follows a record year in which Jamaica topped $2B in remittance inflows.

Filed Under: Breaking News, Economy Tagged With: Economy, Remittances

Economy grew in 2013 but barely

April 1, 2014 by IC Insider.com

Jamaican economy was able to eke out 0.2 per cent growth in 2013 compared to the previous year, preliminary estimate from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) shows. The moderate growth rate, which could be revised later, emanated from growth of 1.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2013 compared to the similar quarter of 2012. The fourth quarter growth rate is the strongest for some time but it represents recovery from a period in 2012 when economic activity was negatively affected by Hurricane Sandy.

The economy recorded a growth of 0.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2013 compared to the similar quarter of 2012. Earlier in the year, Statin reported that the Jamaican economy declined by 0.1 per cent in the second quarter and declined by 1.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2013. The country has not enjoyed much growth from 1999 has is shown by the table below.

Growth in the 2013 final quarter resulted from increased output levels in both the Goods Producing industries and Services industries, Statin said.

Statin stated that “the performance in the Goods Producing industries reflects increased activities in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing (13.1 per cent), benefited from favourable weather conditions, Mining & Quarrying (12.1 per cent) resulting from increased capacity utilization at the bauxite and alumina plants and Construction (2.6 percent) due to an increase in residential housing projects and continued expansion in hotels. Manufacture industry declined by 0.8 per cent”.

All industries within the Services industries recorded increased levels of output with the exception of the Producers of Government Services which declined by 0.2 per cent and the Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery & Equipment, which remained relatively unchanged for the period. Higher output levels were recorded for: Hotels & Restaurants (5.5 per cent), Transport, Storage & Communication and Other Services (1.1 per cent), Electricity & Water Supply (1.0 per cent), Finance & Insurance Services (0.4 per cent), Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities (0.3 per cent).

Filed Under: Breaking News, Economy Tagged With: Economy, GOJ, Statin

Inflation plummets

March 19, 2014 by IC Insider.com

Inflation rate for February plummeted to just 0.1 percent or annualised at only 1.2 percent. The movement in the index for February 2014 resulted in a calendar year-to-date inflation of 0.6 percent.

The latest monthly out-turn is the lowest for since January and February 2011 and except for July 2012 with a negative inflation rate, no other month has come close to it.

The main contributors to the movement were the 0.2 percent advance in the index for the division Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, the heaviest weighted division, and increases of 0.7 percent each for the divisions Clothing and Footwear and Miscellaneous Goods and Services.

The impact of these increases however was moderated by a 1.2 percent decline in the index for the division Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels as a result of the decline in the cost of electricity, water, and sewage rates. ‘Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco’ rose by 0.2 percent, ‘Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance 0.6 percent, ‘Health 0.2 percent, ‘Transport’ 0.1 percent.

Negligible movement was recorded for ‘Recreation and Culture’ 0.4 percent, ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ 0.1 percent, ‘Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ 0.7 percent, ‘Education’ and ‘Communication’ for the period under review. There was zero inflation in the rural areas during the month.

Filed Under: Breaking News, Economy Tagged With: Economy, Inflation, Statin

BOJ suggests FX stability close

March 16, 2014 by IC Insider.com

Bank of Jamaica, in an unusual weekend press release, indicated that positive trends in the economy and increased flows of foreign exchange in March over the first two months of the year will provide an increasingly solid base for improved stability in the foreign exchange market.

“Since the beginning of March 2014, the exchange rate has depreciated by J$0.93 (0.85%) against the US dollar. This movement over the two-week period compares to a J$0.49 (0.45%) depreciation over the previous two weeks. The faster pace of depreciation has occurred despite increased supply in the foreign exchange market, where volumes from earners for the month to date, are higher than for January and February 2014.” the central bank stated in a release this evening.

“Jamaica’s main economic indicators continue to improve with economic growth resumed in the September quarter and is expected to strengthen over the subsequent six months in the range of 1.0 per cent to 2.0 per cent. Preliminary estimates of the balance of payments indicate that the current account deficit was reduced sharply over the period April 2013 to September 2013, by approximately US$350.0 million. The current level of net international reserves (NIR) is US$1,121.4 million, increasing by US$52.0 million since the end of February 2014. Bank of Jamaica now expects to comfortably meet the NIR target under the International Monetary Fund agreement for the March 2014 quarter. Finally, headline inflation was lower than projected at 0.5 per cent for the month of January and the fiscal year to March 2014 is now likely to fall close to or below the bottom of the 8.5 per cent to 10.5 per cent target range. The BOJ stated that against the background of recent movements in the exchange rate, they wish to assure the public that it stands ready to provide support to prevent disorderly conditions from emerging in the foreign exchange market.” the release concluded.