Unemployment jumps to 15.4%

November 15, 2013 by

Jamaica’s unemployment rate, which has been on the increase since 2008, jumped to 15.4% for July 2013 compared to 13.1% in July 2012 as more workers came into the workforce. For the same period, the unemployment rate for males was 11.7% compared to 19.9% for females. The Employed Labour Force for July 2013 was 1,108,100, which was 3,100 less than the 1,111,200 recorded in July 2012 but was slightly above the numbers recorded in March this year. For males, it decreased marginally by 600 (0.1%) to 632,100 and for females by 2,500 (0.5%) to 476,000 for the period.

In March this year, the number of employed persons was 1,107,400 compared to 1,098,700 recorded in March 2012 and 1,093,200 in December last year.

The number of unemployed persons in July 2013 was 201,600. This was an increase of 34,200 (20.4%) when compared with 167,400 in July 2012. The number of unemployed males increased by 13,900 (19.9%) and the number of females by 20,300 (20.8%) for the same period.

The July 2013 Labour Force Survey, was conducted by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) and covered the week of June 23-29.

Labour Force | In July 2013, the number of persons in the Labour Force was 1,309,700, which was 31,200 (2.4%) higher than the 1,278,500 recorded in July 2012. The male labour force increased by 13,400 (1.9%) from 702,300 in July 2012 to 715,700 in July 2013, and the female labour force increased by 17,800 (3.1%) moving from 576,200 to 594,000 in the same period.

The Employment Rate for July 2013 was 84.6%, which was a 2.3 percentage point decline from the 86.9% in July 2012. The Employment Rate declined for both males and females over the period. For males, it declined by 1.8 percentage points, moving from 90.1% to 88.3%, and for females it declined by 2.9 percentage points, from 83% to 80.1% over the same period.

Outsiders | The number of persons who were classified as Outside the Labour Force in July 2013 was 768,000. This represents a decrease of 25,500 (3.2%) when compared to 793,500 in July 2012. In the same period, the number of males Outside the Labour Force declined by 10,400 (3.3%) moving from 314,400 to 304,000 and the females by 15,100 (3.2%) moving from 479,100 to 464,000 over the period.

Where they work | The Occupation group ‘Clerks’ had an  increase in employment of 5,600 (5.8%) persons, moving from 96,300 in July 2012 to 101,900 in July 2013. The group ‘Craft and Related Trade Workers’ had the largest decline for the period, moving from 149,600 to 141,800 in July 2013 resulting in a decline of 7,800 (5.2%) persons.

The largest increase in employment occurred in the industry group ‘Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities’ where the number of persons employed increased by 11,300 (19.3%). Similar increases were experienced in the group ‘Health and Social Work’ where it increased by 4,300 (14.3%) persons. During the same period, the industry group ‘Manufacturing’ declined by 8,700 (11.3%) persons followed by ‘Wholesale & Retail, Repair of Motor Vehicle & Equipment’ which declined by 5,200 (2.4%) persons.

Unemployment rates among youths aged 14-24 years was 38.3% for July 2013. This was an increase of 6.6 percentage points when compared with 31.7% in July 2012. The male unemployment rate for youths was 29.5% compared to 50.3% for females.

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Producers inflation moderate

November 5, 2013 by

As reported by Statin, the Producer Price Index for the Mining & Quarrying industry increased by 0.7 per cent for September. This resulted mainly from the depreciation of the Jamaican dollar via-a-vis the American Dollar.

The Manufacturing industry recorded an advance in producer prices of 0.5 per cent. Contributing significantly to this increase was the upward movement in the index for the major group ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco’ up by 0.2 per cent and ‘Refined Petroleum Products’ by 1.9 per cent. However, these movements were tempered by the major group ‘Chemicals & Chemical Products’ which reflected a decline of 0.2 per cent in its index for the period under review.

Image courtesy of wandee007/FreeDigitalPhotos.net

Image courtesy of wandee007/FreeDigitalPhotos.net

The point to point period, September 2012 to September 2013 recorded an increase of 14.0 per cent in the index for the Mining & Quarrying industry. For the same period, the Manufacturing industry’s index increased by 8.0 per cent. For the fiscal year to date, April 2013 to September 2013, showed that the index for Mining & Quarrying industry advanced by 2.8 per cent, while the Manufacturing industry recorded an increase of 2.0 per cent.

A comparison of the third quarter 2013 over the second quarter of 2013 for the Mining & Quarrying and the Manufacturing industry showed both industries increasing by 2.0 per cent and 1.2 per cent respectively.

Image courtesy of koko-tewan/FreeDigitalPhotos.net

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Big drop in trade deficit

November 5, 2013 by

Jamaica enjoyed a big drop in its trade deficit in the first 7 months of the year as the deficit declined to US$2.64 billion compared to US$2.85 million in the same period for 2012 according to the latest data put out by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).

According to the Government’s agency for the collection of economic and other data, merchandise imports during January to July 2013 was valued at US$3.62 billion, a decrease of US$213 million when compared to the US$3.83 billion recorded in the similar period last year due mainly to a fall in the value of fuel imported. Earnings from total exports during review period was similar to the 2012 period both at US$978 million.

CoffeeTrade280x150Statin sated in their release that the decline in imports was largely attributed to the decrease expenditure on “Mineral Fuels, etcetera”. Other areas showing decreases were “Machinery & Transport Equipment”, “Manufactured Goods” and “Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles”. “Mineral Fuels, etcetera” valued at US$1.28 billion, fell by US$241 million or 15.8 percent compared with the 2012 period. “Machinery & Transport Equipment” fell by US$5.3 million or 1.0 percent to US517.5 million and “Manufactured Goods” was valued at US$338 million, a decrease of US$35.3 million.

Traditional Exports | Earnings from major traditional domestic exports during the 2013 review period decreased by US$21 million to US$488 million due to the significant decline in ‘Manufacture’. Goods classified under the “Manufacture” group accounted for US$86 million, down from US$129.5 million in 2012 mainly due to the decrease in the export of ‘Sugar’ and’ Rum’. “Agriculture” group recorded an increase, earning US$17 million, as the major commodity in this group “Coffee” earned US$13.3 million compared to US$10.4 million in 2012. “Mining and Quarrying” earned US$385 million in the 2013 period.

Non-Traditional Exports | Earnings for this segment to July 2013 rose by 3 percent or US$12.8 million to US$442.4 million.  “Other” non-traditional domestic exports rose by 8.1 percent to earn US$318 million.  Of this amount,  “Chemicals (incl. Ethanol)” earned US$99 million, an increase of US$47 million.

Caricom_logo150X150CARICOM | Imports from CARICOM during the first seven months was worth US$484 million but it decreased by 18.3 percent or US$108.5 million when compared to the same period in 2012. The decrease in the import bill was due mainly to lower imports of “Mineral Fuels, etcetera” as spending fell by US$120 million to US$314 million. “Manufactured Goods” recorded a value of US$13 million, down from US$15 million in 2012. Other decreases were seen in “Chemicals” and “Machinery & Transport Equipment” valued at US$15.7 million and US$6.0 million respectively. Three of the five commodity groups recording increases were “Food” valued at US$100.2 million, “Beverages & Tobacco” ( US$24.9 million) and “Misc. Manufactured Articles” ( US$8.4 million).

Total exports to Caricom declined by 3.6 percent during the review period. Domestic Exports accounted for US$33 million, and Re-exports US$6 million. The fall in domestic exports was due mainly to lower exports of “Chemicals”, which decreased by US$3.6 million or 51.0 percent to US$3.5 million and “Misc. Manufactured Articles”, which fell by 12.9 percent to US$2.2 million. However, “Food” the major export earner, increased and was valued at US$19 million, up from the US$17.5 million. Jamaica recorded a trade deficit of US$445 million with her CARICOM partners, down from US$552 million in the 2012.

Related posts | Non-Traditional exports up

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Govt set to wipe out deficit

November 5, 2013 by

The budget presented by the Government of Jamaica to the nation in April did not paint a full picture of what was on the cards. That is, the full wiping out of the fiscal deficit in one year and laying the foundation for a reduction in the heavy debt to GDP load the country has borne for decades. The government is well on target to do this based on the performance to September with a deficit of only $6.6 billion and the heavy inflow of taxes between January and March 2014.

After faltering in August partially due to the last day’s collections not counted in the August fiscal numbers, revenues in September shot past the forecast to land the overall year to date collections right on target but for a half a billion dollar shortfall, which was more than made up for by a near $11 billion savings on the expenditure side. The fiscal deficit is well ahead of forecast at just $6.6 billion versus a target at this stage of $17 billion.

Jamaica_coat_of_arms_280X150Although revenues as a whole are on track, there are areas of concern where intake is less than planned by a fair degree. Capital and non-tax revenues are up by $5 billion year to date which helped to offset fall off in other areas. Also of note, travel tax, which is up by 69 percent due what the Ministry says is past due amounts that being collected, but this is not sustainable at the same pace going forward once the arrears are cleared.

Negative inflows | International trade is down year to date by $2.6 billion; this would have been far worse but for the positive collections for travel tax. Production and consumption taxes have not performed badly although down by $388 million from a forecast of $58.5 billion as education tax is down versus budget by 8 percent to $8.6 billion. Betting and gaming tax is down 38 percent at $1.13 billion. In the area of income taxes, PAYE is down by 6 percent or $2 billion to $30.4 billion, corporate taxes are up by $800 million as tax on dividends fell by $765 million or 57 percent against forecast. As government paid out less interest on the debt, the collection for tax on interest income fell.

Less debt | Government borrowed nearly $10 billion less than budgeted and cut the interest paid for servicing the monstrous debt by $5.6 billion. Payments for other housekeeping expenses other than wages declined by $2.6 billion, in addition $1.7 billion was spent on capital items during the six months period.

Related posts | August curse hits Taxes | July surplus as Govt income jumps

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Remittances up, but barely

October 22, 2013 by

Bank of Jamaica is reporting improved remittance flows for July 2013 and for the year to date. According to the central bank, net remittances were US$149.7 million, an increase of US$3.4 million or 2.3 per cent relative to the corresponding period of 2012. The growth in the net inflows reflected both an increase in gross remittance inflows and a contraction in outflows.

Gross remittance inflows for the month were US$170.5 million, an increase of US$1.6 million relative to July last year.

The rise in total remittance inflows reflected an increase of US$3.3 million in inflows through Remittance Companies and a decrease of US$1.7 million in inflows via Other Remittances. This is consistent with IC Insider’s findings for when there is strong instability in the foreign exchange market like what occurred after May of this year.

Total remittance outflows for the review month decreased by US$1.7 million to US$20.8 million.

Net remittances for January to July 2013 were US$1.049 billion, an increase of US$11.7 million over 2012. The outturn reflects a reduction in outflows which were partly offset by inflows.

For the review period, total remittance inflows were US$1,190.8 million, a decrease of US$4.9 million but outflows declined by an even larger amount of US$16.6 million thus contributing to an increase in the net inflows.

The decrease in total remittance inflows reflected a US$15.6 million or 1.5 per cent contraction in inflows through Remittances Companies, which was partly offset by a US$10.7 million or 6.2 per cent increase in flows through the Other Remittances sub-category.

Related posts | Remittances dip in June | Sharp increase in May Remittances

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Jamaica’s inflation jumps

October 17, 2013 by

The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) is reporting a big jump in inflation in the month of September resulting primarily from hike in bus and taxi fares along with electricity cost.

“Inflation measured by the All Jamaica ‘All Divisions’ Consumer Price Index, increased by 2.8 percent for September 2013, the highest  monthly movement experienced since July 2008” Statin said. This movement was influenced significantly by the increase in bus and taxi fares, which resulted in the ‘Transport’ division recording the highest movement for the month, 17.1 percent. Also contributing to the upward inflation rate was the 3.6 percent increase in the index for the ‘Education’ division caused by the rise in the cost of tuition fees for the new school year additionally, the upward movement in electricity cost increased the index for the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ Division by 3.3 percent.

dollar_sign2_280x150The calendar year–to-date inflation rose by 7.7 percent up from 4.8 percent in August. The point-to-point movement was 10.4 percent.  All other divisions that make up the All Jamaica index recorded increases. ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic  Beverages by  0.6 percent,  ‘Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco’ 0.3 percent, ‘Clothing and Footwear,’ 0.7 percent, ‘Furnishings Household Equipment’ and Routine Household Maintenance’, 0.3 percent, ‘Health’, 0.2 percent, ‘Recreation and Culture’, 0.3 percent, ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ 0.2 percent, and ‘Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ up by 0.6 percent. There was no movement recorded for ‘Communication’.

The Index advanced in all three regions: Greater Kingston Metropolitan Area (GKMA), 2.5 percent, Other Urban Centres (OUC), 2.7 percent and rural areas by, 3.1 percent.

Related posts | August inflation increase moderate | Inflation continues moderation

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Credit expansion slows in T&T

October 14, 2013 by

In an economy that has shown some growth but is still weak, the Trinidad & Tobago Central Bank stated recently that “overall private sector credit growth though slow, has been relatively steady thus far in 2013”.

On a year-on-year basis, private sector credit grew by 3.0 per cent in July 2013 compared with just over 2 ½ per cent in June 2013. The growth is below the rate of inflation for the year to August. Consumer lending continued to strengthen, increasing by almost 6½ per cent (year-on-year) in July from 6.2 per cent in June 2013. On the other hand, business loans contracted for the eighth consecutive month, falling by 5.0 per cent in July 2013. Real estate mortgage loans, however, maintained strong double digit growth.

Large net domestic fiscal injections along with weak credit demand contributed to a rapid build-up of liquidity levels in the financial system over the past few months. Commercial banks’ excess reserves at the Central Bank rose from a daily average of $5.4 billion in July 2013 to a daily average of $6.3 billion in August, the Central Bank stated.

T&TFlagExcess reserves increased even further to a record daily average of $8.3 billion over the first three weeks of September. While the $1 billion Central Government treasury bond offered in early August 2013 was undersubscribed, the allotment of almost $560 million helped to reduce some of the excess liquidity. Central Bank open market operations and sales of the foreign exchange also removed some of the excess liquidity from the system in July-September 2013.

The substantial expansion in liquidity has kept short-term, domestic treasury rates at record low levels, with the discount rate on 3-month treasury bills holding at 0.14 per cent in the final week of September 2013.

Related posts | T&T economy growing | T&T Inflation picks up | IMF predicts 1.5% growth for T&T

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T&T Inflation picks up

October 10, 2013 by

Latest available data from the T&T Central Statistical Office showed that, on a year-on-year basis, inflation rose to 5.1 per cent in August 2013 from 3.8 per cent in July 2013, and 7.9 per cent one year earlier.

This was mainly due to a rise in food inflation, which increased to 7.7 per cent in August 2013 from a low of 4.8 per cent in the previous month. Core inflation inched slightly upwards but remains stable at a little over 3.0 per cent in August 2013. While core inflation demonstrated a slight uptick in August 2013, underlying inflationary pressures still remain well contained.

Related Posts | T&T economy growing

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T&T economy growing

October 9, 2013 by

As reported by the Central Bank of the twin island state of Trinidad & Tobago, real GDP and economic activity is estimated to have expanded at an average rate of 1.7 per cent (year-on-year) for four successive quarters to June 2013, compared with a contraction that averaged 1.6 per cent in the preceding four quarters.

“The turnaround was driven by the non-energy sector where output rose at an average pace of nearly 2 ½ per cent in the four quarters to end-June 2013. The energy sector expanded at a much slower average rate of 0.7 per cent (year-on-year) in the period, as intensified maintenance work and security upgrades posed a severe drag on the sector’s performance.

T&T_CoatofArms-black280X150The central bank went on to state that, “There are encouraging signs that the domestic economy appears to be on a path of recovery, as evidenced by four consecutive quarters of slow but steady year-on-year growth from July 2012 to June 2013. Growth has been mainly driven by the non-energy sector and this trend is expected to continue into the second half of 2013 as the planned maintenance of gas and downstream plants, which began in September 2013, is likely to impact the performance of the energy sector.”

The central bankers expressed concern, about the eight successive months of decline in business lending to July 2013 and elevated liquidity levels, both of which reflect continued caution on the part of the private sector. Against this backdrop, the Central Bank views the present accommodative monetary policy stance as appropriate to support the ongoing recovery and has decided to maintain the ‘Repo’ rate at 2.75 per cent.

The Central Bank said it will continue to nurture financial conditions supportive of the recovery, while keeping economic and monetary conditions under close review in the coming months.

Related posts | IMF predicts 1.5% growth for T&T

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NIR up in September

October 9, 2013 by

The Jamaican dollar has been undergoing a depreciation since May after a brief revaluation but the net international reserves actually climbed at the end of September compared with August of this year.

Net International Reserves at the end of September amounted to US$910 million, up $28.54 million over the August figure of US$881.6 million. It is not clear where the increase came from. The central bank is projecting that the NIR will remain around these levels until year end.

The reserves translate to 14.96 weeks of Goods Imports and 11.22 weeks of Goods & Services Imports at the end of August and for September was 15.10 weeks and 11.4 weeks respectively.

Related posts | NIR down but so is IMF debt | NIR surpasses $1 billion

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