More taxes less cost keep GOJ in black

Nigel Clarke, Jamaica’s Minister of Finance

Data put out by Jamaica’s Ministry of Finance shows the government’s operating at a surplus with increased taxes and major cost reductions in two critical areas.
Information for the June quarter shows a surplus of $6.5 billion for the quarter against a planned deficit of a mere $58 million. Helping in achieving the positive outturn was near $4 billion in lower interest payments and the increased taxes and reduced expenditure of $3.6 billion on other areas of government operations. Capital expenditure saw $1.5 billion more spent than budget, while grants pulled in $3 billion less than planned.
Tax revenues brought in $128.7 billion, up 3.3 percent over budget and revenues from PAYE grew just one percent above budget, at $14.4 billion. Motor Vehicle license rose 7.7 percent above budget to reach $1 billion. GCT on local goods and services slipped 2.3 percent below budget to end at $24 billion but is up strongly on the total take for the 2018 first quarter. GCT on imports of $20.4 billion rose 2.7 percent above budget. Travel tax climbed 10.3 percent to $5 billion while betting, gaming and lottery taxes pulled in 28.6 percent more than in 2018 with $1.26 billion coming in for the June 2019 period.
The improvement is a continuation of healthy tax inflows for a number of years and is a sign of continued economic growth for the country.

Tax break costing far less in year 1

Minister of Finance Audley Shaw who announced tax break for individuals.

Minister Audley Shaw announced in May last year, an across the board threshold for individual tax payers of just over $1 million per year, effective July 2016, estimated to cost $12 billion in lost revenues this fiscal year. Data in Governments’ fiscal operations to November this year, is now showing that the cost will be far less than originally stated.
According to the inflows of PAYE, the difference between inflows for 2015 amounted to $46 billion to November is only $3 billion more than the intake of $43 billion for the same period in 2016. Revenues lost monthly, since August, the first month that revenues would be affected by the lower tax payments is now running around $1.2 billion lower than in 2015, suggesting that the full impact for the current fiscal year will end up costing $9 billion instead of the $12.5 billion originally stated. The cost for a full year would be in the order of $14 billion.
According to Shaw, 251,000 persons would have benefit from the increased threshold. Revenues for Government of Jamaica fiscal operations to the end of November 2016 are $26 billion ahead of the similar period in 2015. For the current fiscal year, revenues are $13.8 billion ahead of forecast an amount that has already exceeded the amount forgone in income tax.

GOJ January deficit widens

MOFGovernment revenues fell and expenditure rose in December thus reducing the gains make in these areas, in the first nine months of the fiscal year. The fiscal surplus that was on target with the original plan has been cut by $5.7 billion and is now at $69.45 billion compared with a budgeted amount of $75.16 billion.
The decline in the primary surplus is in keeping with the reduction approved by the international Fund last year. The target was lower from 7.5 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 7.25 per cent for the remainder of the current fiscal year, freeing up approximately $4 billion to be spent and to 7 percent for the 2016/17 fiscal year.
For the period to January, tax revenues were ahead of target by $3.8 billion and is down from $6.6 billion from the end of 2015, interest cost that was down $4.8 billion to December, lost some of the savings, with it being $3.1 billion by January while the wages bill exceeded forecast by $3.7 billion in January having been $2.3 billion ahead of target up to December. Other expenditure that was underspend by $540 million to December is now over by $2.2 billion to January.
The fiscal deficit has climbed by $2.6 billion above forecast to $37.34 billion. Up to December the deficit was ahead of target by $5.8 billion at $25 billion.
Inflows from Bauxite Levy and grants continue to underperform with a shortfall of $5.2 billion to January.

Treasury bill rates slide continue

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Government of Jamaica Treasury bill rates, declined in the latest auction of the short-term debt instruments, opened today at the Bank of Jamaica offices. The 182 days instrument closed at its lowest level since May 2013 when it then cleared at 6.44 percent.
At today’s auction the average rate came in at 6.787 percent, down from 6.998 percent in March and the 91 days ended at 6.06 percent, a decline that is well down on the previous rate of 6.72765 percent. TB -4-15
The declines come against the background of consistently falling rates since the start of the second quarter last year, negative inflation and a cut this month in Bank of Jamaica’s CD rate, from 5.75 percent to 5.50 percent.
The implications of the fall include potential for lower lending rates down the road, stimulation of interest sensitive investments such as stocks and long term bonds and of course persons looking for income from fixed interest securities will be getting less income going forward than in the recent past.

GOJ T-bill rate decline conftinues

Ministry of Finance Building Kingston,  ,Jamaica

Ministry of Finance Building Kingston, Jamaica

Interest rates on government of Jamaica Treasury bills, continue their decent in the latest offering this month. Two offerings at the January 23 auctions and one on January 14, resulted in a further decline in the interest rates on all three instruments offered to the public.
The 182 days note that fell to 7.14 percent at the December auction, the lowest level since June 201, returned a lower rate in the January auction at 6.99 percent.
The pace at which the 182 days treasury rates are falling, have slowed from 0.34 percent dip in November to 0.15 percent at the latest issue. With the latest announcement by Bank of Jamaica on projection for inflation for 2015 being in the range of 3-5 percent there will be lots of room for the treasury rates to decline sharply in the months ahead.
Tbill mvmnt 1-15The latest auction, dated January 14, 2015, for the 28 days instrument, ended with an average rate of 6.29528 percent. The rate fell from the average rate of 6.38 percent at the December auction and from 6.71 percent in November and 6.826 percent in October, as $1.1 billion up from $686 million in December, chased the $400 million on offer.
Investors’ demand for the 91 days Treasury bills, climbed to $706 million, from $531 million in December, but is still well below the $1.042 billion that chased the November auction offering. Demand for the longer-term 182 days instrument, was down to $717 million from $925 million for the December auction. The amounts available were $400 million for each for the Treasury bills on offer.
The Treasury bill for the 91 days period, Friday, January 23 to mature on Friday, April 24, attracted an average yield of 6.8817 percent down from 6.956 percent in December. November’s rate was 7.052 percent, 7.336 percent in October and 7.46952 percent, at the September auction. At the August auction the average rate out turn was 7.46767 percent. The yield for July was an average of 7.63643 percent, for the June issue 7.65893 percent and 8.2 percent in May, for the Treasury bill of same duration.
The offer of 182 days duration, dated December 2014, maturing on June 19, 2015, resulted in an average interest rate yield of 7.14 percent, down from 7.387 percent at the November’s auction. At the October auction the average rate declined to 7.73187 percent from 7.99887 percent, at the September auction, 8.11578 percent, in August, 8.21982 percent at the July’s auction and 8.36502 percent for the June issue, of the same duration. At the May auction, the rate came out at 8.932 percent.

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