April taxes indicate strong economic rebound

The government of Jamaica’s revenues surged an astounding 105 percent in April, this year over inflows over 2020 and an impressive 65 percent higher than inflows for April 2019 and suggest that the local economy is on a strong rebound if the April performance continues.

Corporate taxes outperformed budget by 39% for April 2021

The 2021 inflows amounted to $75 billion and exceeded the forecast of $72 billion by $3.4 billion and are the highest monthly inflows for the past three years except for the months of March.
In April 2019, the Government of Jamaica collected just over $46 billion in revenues and a mere $37 billion in 2020, the latter being after the economy took a major body blow in March that year, the start of the Covid-19 pandemic and the closing of the country’s borders that effectively looked down the tourist industry.
Taxes collected from Income and profits delivered $1.1 billion more than budget in April, with all categories performing above budget. The production and consumption category delivered a $1 billion increase and Production and consumption taxes contributed $1.3 billion more in revenues.
Corporate taxes jumped 32 percent to $1.4 billion, a lot better than the $903 million collected in 2019 and $1.08 in April 2020. PAYEE is up 6 percent or $373 million on a budget of $5.9 billion but is up 13 percent over the 2020 intake of $5.54 billion. Taxes on interest rose a strong 20 percent over budget to $1.7 billion. Special Consumption Taxes on local goods spiked nearly 9 percent to $3.6 billion, education taxes outperformed budget by 8 percent to reach $2.6 billion and GCT on local goods and services was up just 3 percent to $7.7 billion, but that is still well below inflows of $9 billion April 2019 when the GCT rate was 10 percent higher than the current rate of 15 percent.

Jamaica’s Ministry of Finance newest office building

Customs duty ran 13.7 percent ahead of forecast at $3.3 billion and remained below inflows of $3.5 billion in April 2019, but higher than the $2.6 billion collected in 2020. GCT on imports is up 8.5 percent above budget to hit $6.9 billion and much better than the $5.3 billion last year. Special Consumption Tax on imports outperformed the budget by 5.6 percent to reach $3.3 billion and betters last year’s intake of $3 billion. Travel tax is up a stunning $34.4 percent above forecast to end at $621 million but well off the nearly $2 billion earned in April 2019 and $1 billion last year.
April 2021, performance is just slightly below the record inflows of $85 billion reached in March this year, as well as the $82 billion outturn for March 2020 and March 2019, with $84 billion.
The magnitude of this year’s performance can be measured with the 2020 fiscal year when the economy was operating at full capacity compared to April 2020. The highest inflows in that year were in June with $60 billion, September $63 billion and December $64 billion.

Jamaica Government revenues surge

Collector of Taxes Constant Spring Road.

Revenues and grants surged $3 billion above forecast, in December to bring the surplus over budget, to just $15.7 billion or 4.2 percent more than forecast.
Not only were revenues more positive than planned but recurrent expenditure came in 2.4 percent or $9.4 billion lower than was budgeted, ensuring that the government operated a fiscal surplus of $14 billion for the year to December versus a planned deficit of $11 billion.
The surplus would have been even greater had it not been for the fact that in December tax collection on interest had more taxes refunded that exceeded inflows, resulting in net withholding tax being negative $1.65 billion, which led to the collection for withholding tax revenues coming up short of forecast by $4.9 billion.
The critical primary surplus came in at $23 billion ahead of target of $75 billion.
Spending was cut on wages and related cost by $4.2 billion, interest cost fell $2.7 billion to end at $95.2 billion and other cost was lower by $3.4 billion.
Corporation taxes with surplus of intake of $6.7 billion is 26.4 percent ahead of target and is the biggest contributor to the surplus intake of revenues followed by Special Consumption Tax with $4.8 billion and General Consumption Tax with $5 billion.

GOJ revenues beating estimates

Revenues for Government of Jamaica continue to outpace forecast, with the latest figures showing a 5.2 percent amounting to $17.4 billion increase over budget to December last year.
Revenues ended at $352 billion inclusive of capital inflows of $14.6 billion, compared with forecast of $334 billion. The main contributors company profit taxes and PAYE $2.4 billion each, and tax on interest, amounting to $2.8 billion. Special consumption taxes accounted for an increase of $2.3 billion, Education tax added $822 million, Stamp duties $1.3 billion and Custom Duties $1 billion. Travel and special consumption taxes and GCT on imports, cut $3.5 billion from forecast.
Capital spending is still running $5.4 billion below the target of $35 billion while other expenditure is under-spent by $3.7 billion, with wages down $5.2 billion and interest cost $3.9 billion, while other operating cost is up $4.3 billion over forecast.
The fiscal out turn, is a cut in the fiscal deficit by $26.6 billion, down to $23.7 billion.

No new taxes for Jamaicans

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Collector of Taxes office, Constant Spring, Kingston.

Collector of Taxes office, Constant Spring, Kingston.

Earlier this year I stated that government’s $1.5 billion tax plan could be funded from ongoing revenues but others thought otherwise. 2016 fiscal data showed savings on the cost side particularly interest cost reduction and increase revenues that were running above budget.
Based on developments on the fiscal operations this fiscal year, it seems that government was well on the way to enjoying a bumper reaping in 2016/17 fiscal year of higher revenues and lower interest cost that seemed adequate to meet the proposed tax break of the tax free $1.5 billion.
With the first quarter revenues and expenditure in the data is confirming what I was saying and is indicating that the naysayers are far from as informed as some would want the public to believe. What the early data is suggesting is that the economy seems to be performing better than in recent past and more importantly, that there was no need for any new taxes for this fiscal year and none will be needed to fund the rest of the personal tax break to be effected in 2017/18.
The simple reason is, savings on interest cost, with lower interest rates on government debt and an 11 percent rise in revenues over the 2015 intake, equal to an 8 percent increase above budget for the current fiscal year, will translate to $46 billion in added revenues and interest savings over the planned amounts. That will be more than enough to fund the increase tax break to come and to do without the NHT special payment. But that is not all if positive economic growth continues into 2017 revenues will rise some more probably with an additional $30 billion.
What the data is showing, is that the country has been failing from lack of thinking outside familiar territory.

Huge increase in Government revenues

MOFGovernment revenues jumped by nearly 6 percent over budget for the first two months of the fiscal year to May, while payments dropped sharply resulting in the fiscal deficit of just $4 billion for the two months, down by $11 billion projected.
Revenue in take for the two month period is just over $9.2 billion or 15 percent ahead of the similar period for 2015.
Tax revenues jumped 6 percent or $3.8 billion over forecast, flowing mainly as a result of an increase of, $530 million in withholding tax on interest, local GCT amounting $1.26 billion, stamp duty of nearly $500 million and GCT and special consumption tax on imports of $1.1 billion.
Interestingly, the increase is taking place with little input from the new taxes government implemented in May this year.
On the expenditure side, interest cost fell by $1.5 billion and normal housekeeping expenses is down by $3.4 billion while the wage bill moved up by $966 million. Capital spending was under, by $3.2 billion, with only $1.6 billion spent by May. Information, gleaned indicates that much of the under spending is due to a slow start to the fiscal year, with June spending expected to catch up.
The increase in revenues is in keeping with a trend seen in the first 9 months of 2015, when revenues were growing well ahead of forecast. Total revenues are up 21 percent or $5.9 billion ahead of the amount generated in April 2015 and 10 percent or $3.37 billion more in May this year, than for May 2015.
It early days yet, but if the trend on the revenue collection continues close to what is now being experienced, it would make it much easier for the government to meet some of the commitments they have, for 2017 onward.

Government capital spend jumps $3.7b

Peter Phillips - Minister of Finance

Peter Phillips – Minister of Finance

Government had budgeted to spend $1.6 billion in December but doled out $5.3 billion instead, bringing the full nine months capital spend to $26 billion, in line with budget. The increased spend in December wiped out the underspending of $4 billion in this line item up to November.
Tax revenues continue to be on a positive path, with $6.6 billion over budget but grants are below by $3.1 billion resulting in revenues surplus of $2.5 billion. Government over spent on wages in the tune of $2.3 billion taking the total spend to $126.6 billion but interest cost continues to be lower than forecast by almost $5 billion at $91 billion. Spending on other expenses was below forecast by $3 billion. The overall deficit was in line with forecast, at $14.7 billion and the primary surplus was nearly a billion more than planned at $66 billion.

GOJ rakes in taxes hikes capital spend

MOFstrong>Grants expected by government was off by $3 billion to October this year but a $6.7 billion jump in tax collection more than made up for shortfall and helped deliver a budget beating performance by $3 billion.
The positives on the revenue front helped to create a smaller deficit than planned by $14 million, an improvement of 44 percent.
With the fiscal year unwinding and the revenue gains, plus cost reduction elsewhere, the Government cut the under spending on the capital front from $6.5 billion at the end of September to $3.5 billion at the end of October. Interest savings keeps on climbing and now stands at $4.6 billion up from $3.4 billion at the end of September and could well end up around $10 billion by March next year. Wages that was underspent by $3.9 billion is down to just $1.6 billion below budget.
At the end of October the fiscal was deficit was $18 billion and the primary surplus $53.77 billion versus $44.3 billion planned.

GOJ rakes in $5b more tax revenues

MOFGovernment of Jamaica raked in 2.6 percent more tax revenues amounting to $4.9 billion over the $190 billion budgeted to reach $195 billion. Grants fell $3 billion short of budget of $6 billion, and non tax revenues by $800 million resulting in nearly half a billion excess revenue over budget, for the nine months to September.
At the end of the period the fiscal deficit projected, was cut in half, with a deficit of $14 billion. The primary surplus measured in at $51 billion some $11 billion better than planned.
The improved revenues flows came mainly from corporate profit tax of $1.9 billion, SCT on local goods $1 billion, tax on interest $2.6 billion, GCT and SCT on imports of $2 billion. PAYE was off by $474 million, telephone tax $400 million, custom duty $800 million and bauxite levy $500 million.
On the expenditure side, recurrent payments are down by $7.3 billion fueled mainly by $3.4 billion reduction in interest payments and $3.9 million in wages. Capital expenditure is under spent by $6.5 billion.

Interest saved cuts Phillips’ cost by $10B

Peter PhillipsPeter Phillips’ assertion that there will be a near $9 billion cut in the 2015/16 budget might have come as a shock to the country already reeling from the pains of severe economic adjustments but much of the work has already be done with a sharp $4.7 billion cut in interest payments to August.
The savings works out at more than $10 billion for the full year and might be even more with Treasury bill rate continuing to fall as such the Minister’s work seems a mere formality of recognizing that interest cost was over estimated in the first place and not for the first time.
Up to August, apart from the big drop in interest cost capital expenditure was underspent buy $4 billion with just spent out of the $16.3 billion budgeted for the 5 months period. The wages bill was underspent by $3.4 billion with just $$67.9 billion spent out of $71.3 planned. Other areas of recurrent expenditure saw arise of $1.4 billion above budget.

Collector of Taxes office, Constant Spring, Kingston.

Collector of Taxes office, Constant Spring, Kingston.

Tax revenues that were almost $3 billion ahead of target to July saw an erosion to August to an increase of $1.66 billion while overall revenues were off by $1.33 billion due mainly to $1 billion shortfall in grants. Corporate taxes jumped sharply by 27 percent over budget to contribute to the increase revenues while PAYE is down by 2 percent from budget.
Government borrowed $14 billion less in the local market than budgeted taking only $5.8 billion in new funds as opposed to almost $20 billion planned. But they borrowed $255 billion on the foreign side versus $59 billion planned but paid out $180 billion more than budgeted.

Tax Inflows up cost down for GOJ

Phillips pulling in revenues ahead of target and holding on cost.

Phillips pulling in revenues ahead of target and holding on cost.

Lower borrowing cost and big increases of $3.3 billion over forecast for General consumption and special consumption taxes on local and imported items, helped to push revenues for May and April above budget by $1.3 billion, in spite of a shortfall of $1 billion in grants and a $345 million in the bauxite levy.
Expenditure is down by $3.76 billion, with reduced spend on capital expenditure accounting for $2.1 billion, interest $571 million and other programmed expenditure of $1 billion. Programmed expenditure savings, may include amounts budgeted for wage increases but not yet paid and may be purely a timing issue than a real savings.
Taxes280x150Government borrowed $13 billion less than forecast, paid out $1.7 billion more than budgeted and that should result in a reduction in interest cost going forward. Overall, the Fiscal deficit for the two month period, is $5 less that budgeted and pushed the overall deficit to $11.5 billion down from $16.5 billion planned.
The wage bill is $27 billion for the two months. A settlement of 5 percent for the year would add $8 billion to the cost, but government would get taxes direct and indirect form its payment. The longer the parties take to settle the less costly it will be for the government, or the easier it will become to pay a higher amount, but there is a matter of year two to contend with as well.

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