BOJ CD rates inched higher

June 5, 2024 by

Rates on Bank of Jamaica certificate of deposits (CDs) closed higher to end at an average of 10.02 percent in Wednesday’s public auction of $37 billion.

The highest rate cleared at 10.325 percent which was only partially filled with 334 successful bids out of a total of 373 covering $444.283 billion that the central bank received for the auction.

Today’s average rate was slightly above the 9.98 percent in last week’s auction. This week’s auction will result in the total amount of 30 days CD’s that the Bank of Jamaica holds falling to $125.5 billion from $128.5 billion in the previous week.

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Remittance inflows to Jamaica slip

June 4, 2024 by

After a modest increase in total remittance inflows into Jamaica in February, remittances for March slipped from the same period last by 1.3 percent to US$297.5 million but was higher than the US$295 million in March 2022, data released by the country’s central bank show.
Remittance inflows which are major source of foreign for the country and remains fairly stable, slipped moderately for the three months to March this year, with total inflows down a mere 0.4 percent to US$797 million compared with US$801 million to March 2023.  The decline in March albeit small, is a continuation of several months of decline since May 2023.
The United States of America continues to be Jamaica’s largest source of remittance flows in March 2024, accounting for 69.8 percent of total flows, down from 71.7 percent in March 2023. Other countries which contributed a notable share of remittances for the month were the United Kingdom, with 10.6 percent followed by Canada at 8.7 percent and the Cayman Islands with 6.7 percent, the report from Bank of Jamaica states.

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BOJ CD rates fall below 10%

May 30, 2024 by

The Bank of Jamaica’s latest offering of $47 billion to the public in certificates of deposit (CD), resulted in a fall in rates with an average of 9.98 percent at the auction that attracted $60.6 billion in 445 bids of which 358 were successful with the highest rate peaking at 10.35 percent.
This week’s rate is 16 percent lower than the peak on April 5, this year, with the average rate then of 11.59 percent.
The average rate of today’s auction is the lowest in months and is lower than last week’s average of 10.19 percent following an auction of $34.5 billion which cleared at an average of 10.19 percent. The total amount of 30 days CD outstanding is $128.5 billion.
Investors should pay attention to developments in this section of the financial market to get an early reading as to the trend in interest rates and not on Bank of Jamaica overnight rate.

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BOJ’s policy pushes Jamaica into deflation

May 15, 2024 by
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The inflation continues to moderate at a rapid pace, with the latest report out of the Statistical Institute of Jamaica reflecting a fall of 0.7 percent for April, following the decline in March 2024 of 0.5 percent bringing the year over year inflation to around 4.8 percent from 5.6 percent in March, still within the BOJ target of 4-6 percent but to the lower end of the target.
The 2024 calendar year inflation is now negative 1.9 percent and seems set to push inflation to zero by the end of summer after the months when inflation tends to rise above norms.
According to Statin, downward movement in the CPI for April was due mainly to a 2.3 per cent decline in the index for the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division as a result of lower electricity, water and sewage rates. Also contributing to the fall in the inflation rate was a 0.6 per cent fall in the index for the division, ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’.
Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) based there focus wrongly on past inflation rather than currently what is happening is placing the country into dire straits as month by month inflation has cooled from several months ago and deflation is what appears to be taking place now.

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Jamaica’s NIR drops

May 12, 2024 by

Jamaica’s Net International Reserves declined by US$35 million in April moving from US$5.137 billion at the end of March this year to US$5.102 billion at the end of April 2024, data recently released by Bank of Jamaica show.
The balance at the end of April which exceeds the balance of US$4.76 billion at the end of December last year represents 25.78 weeks of Goods & Services Imports and 37.51 weeks of imports of goods, the Bank of Jamaica report stated.

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Remittance inflows to Jamaica fall

April 26, 2024 by

Remittance inflows to Jamaica continue to decline at the start of 2024 following several months of decline last year, with inflows for January 2024 amounting to US$246 million, down a relatively small 1.1 percent compared with US$248.6 in January 2023.
The decline represents the eighth consecutive month of negative inflows since June last year for the country.
Jamaica’s decline of 1.1 percent was in contrast to the growth of 3.8 percent in January last year. Total inflows last year declined by two percent to US$3.37 billion from US$3.44 billion in 2022. Inflows peaked at US$3.497 billion in 2021.

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BOJ engineers cut in CDs interest rates

April 24, 2024 by

Interest rates on Bank of Jamaica dropped to an average of 10.6 percent at the latest CD auction on Wednesday, April 24, following an offer of $34.5 billion to the public in a competitive price auction. The previous auction of $39 5 billion attracted only $37.8 billion in bids, resulting in an average rate of 11.032 percent.
In today’s auction bids amounting to just over $55 billion were received from 399 applications but only 257 were satisfied, with rates ranging from 9 to 11 percent. The latest offer brings the total amount of 30 days CDS to $125.7 billion which is down sharply from $155 billion on April 5, this year with the averaget rate then of 11.59 percent.
On April 22 the bank offered $14 billion in a 25 month CD that attracted $29 billion in bids and resulted in an average rate of 8.93 percent and put the total amounts in two year CDs to nearly $60 billion.

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Jamaica’s inflation plunges but BOJ cautious

April 16, 2024 by

The Statistical Institute of Jamaica reported negative inflation of 0.6 percent for March, for a second consecutive month and point to point inflation of 5.6 percent to the year to date and follows and negative inflation of 0.6 percent in February and negative 0.10 in January.
With most businesses having granted healthy wage increases in 2022 and 2023, this publication does not expect there to be much wage pressure on inflation this year. With the inflation rate for the first three months of the year now at negative1.3 percent, which could climb even more in April, the increases in the summer months that usually flow from farm produces is likely to wipe out the gains in the early months but that should set the stage for the point to point to continue to trend to the lower end of BOJ’s mandate of 4 to 6 percent.
Bank of Jamaica has taken note of the inflation outturn in March 2024. According to a released by the central bank, “the 12-month point-to-point inflation (March 2023 to March 2024) was 5.6 per cent, which is within the Bank’s target range. The Bank welcomes the reduction in headline inflation, which was 0.6 percentage points lower than the 6.2 per cent point-to-point inflation rate for the period February 2023 to February 2024 and also lower than our most recent forecast”.
“The Bank notes that this is the second consecutive month of decline in headline inflation, which is a positive development, and the first time that the inflation outturn was within the Bank’s target range since October 2023.”
The bank went on to state “the analysis of the inflation numbers shows that the downward movement in the Consumer Price Index, for March 2024 was largely influenced by a 1.8 per cent decline in the index for the heaviest weighted division, Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages. While the Bank had anticipated a decline for this division, the contraction was larger than expected and reflected reductions in the prices of some agricultural produce, such as tomato, yam, sweet potato, cabbage and carrot.”
“The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will continue to closely watch the inflation numbers and other incoming data over the ensuing months to assess the extent to which the current level of inflation will be sustained, before making a  determination on whether to change the Bank’s monetary policy stance’ the statement concluded.

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BOJ pumps life into J$ with high interest rates

March 25, 2024 by

Jamaica’s Central Bank is pumping a great deal of life into the Jamaican dollar, lifting the value from just under J$158 to one United States dollar in February this year, to under $155 currently and driving rates on CDS up by almost 26 percent from a year ago, as the bank moves aggressively to bend year over year inflation within the mandated 4-6 percent, from 6.20 percent to February.
Liquidity in the financial has been drained with BOJ pulling out all available liquidity. At the most recent auction of Certificate of Deposits, the bank offered $42.5 billion to the public and attracted bids amounting to $43.16 billion, resulting in an average yield for successful bids of 11.12 percent, with the rate of 13.29 percent being partial satisfied.
The total outstanding 30-day CDs now amount to $157.5 billion, in contrast, a year ago the total outstanding 30-day CDs was $81.85 billion with the average yield at that auction being 8.85 percent.
Revaluation of the Jamaican dollar is critically important in curbing inflation as it cuts the cost of imported items and, most importantly, the cost of fuel that feeds into a wide array of goods and services. These include petrol for vehicles, electricity for households and businesses and powering the water supply. Of course, it affects other imported items such as foods clothing to name just two.

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Negative inflation in February

March 17, 2024 by

Point-to-point inflation in Jamaica has bent back close to the Bank of Jamaica’s target of 4-6 percent based on the February 2024 data released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, with a reading of 6.2 percent following monthly inflation plunging by 0.6 percent for the month and follows a fall of 0.10 percent in January.
The decline was influenced by the decreases in the index for the divisions ‘Food and Non Alcoholic Beverages’ (1.1 percent) and ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (1.6 percent).

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