Trading is off to a moderate start in early trading on Tuesday with Scotia Group trading more than 1 million shares and CAC 2000 finally trading after news of its multi million law suit loss to end at $5.10, down from the last traded price of $6.30.
Reasonable volumes came from, Iron Rock Insurance with 94,434 units trading at $3.30, Lasco Distributors with 125,000 shares at $7, Lasco Financial with 494,451 shares changing hands at $3.25, Jamaica Broilers with 500,134 units at $14.50, JMMB Group 7.50% preference shares traded 506,000 units at $1.08 and Scotia Group accounting for 1,024,549 units at $31.50.
The all Jamaica Composite Index climbs 998.42 points to 186,327.87, the Jamaica Stock Exchange Market Index gained 892.76 points to 167,652.03, the Jamaica Stock Exchange combined index rose 816.00 points to close at 180,495.75 and the junior market index eased 1.17 points to 2,435.23.
At 10:30 am, a total of 24 securities traded, resulting in a volume of 2,927,694 shares changing hands carrying a value of $45,399,096, compared to 4,494,219 shares changing hands carrying a value of $8,329,082, on Monday.
The average number of shares traded amounts to 121,987 units compared to 224,711 on Monday. Market activity resulted in 5 stocks falling while the prices of 5 securities rose.
Majors climb in early trading – Tuesday
Juniors jump to another new record
Junior market stocks are trading in record territory in early morning session on the Jamaica Stock Exchange with Lasco Distributors rising to $7.85. Main market stock slipped with Scotia Investments falling from $30 to $27 on a day of moderate volumes.
Up to 10:45 am, JMMB Group traded 12,790 units at a 52 weeks’ high of $15 and Paramount Trading had 150 shares changing hands at a new all-time high of $24.50. Cable & Wireless had 100,000 shares changing hands with a loss of 4 cents at 92 cents, Caribbean Cream fell 40 cents and last traded at $9.10 with 35,000 units changing hands, Honey Bun traded 29,651 unit at $6.15 and Lasco Distributors gained 33 cents in trading 51,000 shares at $7.85.
A total of 26 securities traded, resulting in a volume of 423,544 shares changing hands carrying a value of $4,545,931, compared to 821,407 shares changing hands carrying a value of $7,914,772 on Thursday. The average number of shares traded amounts to 16,290 units compared to 27,380 on Thursday. Market activity resulted in 8 stock falling while the prices of 9 securities rose.
The all Jamaica Composite Index fell 136.42 points to 185,016.35, the Jamaica Stock Exchange Market Index fell 121.98 points to 166,479.30, the Jamaica Stock Exchange combined index climbed 186.03 points to close at 179,788.63 and the junior market index gained 29.13 points to a record 2,472.28.
Buy stocks before the explosion
Image courtesy of suphakit73/FreeDigitalPhotos.net
Both markets have some appealing choices that offer investors a great deal of potential upside. Investors have been making big mistakes by ignoring these opportunities. The errors keep showing in junior market stocks where many wait until prices start to move before trying to buy, at which time the volumes dry up and prices have to move steeply for sellers to be induced to dispose of stocks. Recent cases in point are, ISP Finance, the stock was available under $3 but there were very few buyers, now there are many buyers with bids in the $6 region, a level at which there has been no stock offered for sale since it traded nearly 23,000 units at $6, earlier in September. Jetcon Corporation is another case, with the stock trading below the $3 level for a long time until recently, even as the profit of the company is running at almost twice the pace of 2015, now they are more investors interested at the higher prices at a time when the supply has evaporated. Caribbean Cream is yet another, with IC Insider pointing to strong increase in profits for a long time, now buyers are in at much higher prices but supply is limited. tTech is yet another example with the stock trading for a long time in the $4 region now there is virtually no supply as interest in the stocks grows.
While some investors focus on trailing quarterly earnings as the basis for valuing stocks, they tend to miss out on companies with explosive growth in profits. There is also the tendency to ignore one off time items. The case of Caribbean Cement is an excellent one. A Brokerage house has the earnings at just over $2 for 2016, but the ongoing earnings are likely to be in the $5.50 region for 2016 and this is what they should be using to value the company. Investors seem to miss the main point. The company incurred cost for reducing labour which will show up as lower operating cost in future periods, but investors don’t seem to appreciate that fact, added to what now appears to be an economy that is growing and could grow even more making Cement, a huge buy. The same can be said for National Commercial Bank and Scotia Group that are having a great 2016.An indication of where values could reach based on this year’s earnings can be gleaned from three stocks selling at PE ratios that are 16 to 17.5 times this year’s earnings with 11 out of the 29 junior listings having a PE of 10 times or more with, an average of 13.5. The average of the junior market is now at 10 times 2016 earnings with several stocks selling below. In the main market the top 11 stocks average PE is just over 15 with the overall average for the market at 9.
Based on close of the market on Friday the stocks to watch in the coming week are AMG Packaging that fell back sharply in the past week and is on IC Insiders top 5 junior market buys, Blue Power with limited supply. Cargo Handlers still in demand with the announcement of the 10 to 1 stock split and with the bid at $87.05 versus the last sale of $86.10. Caribbean Cream with limited supply and increased buying, Honey Bun with good demand and declining supply, but the price could be heavy with a PE of 17. The 2016 fiscal year ends this month, so investors may want to focus on the 2017 numbers as the main reason for buying. ISP Finance with no supply but with bid at $6.50 compared to last sale of $6 and with the success of the $150 million bond issue, could move if some supply appear.
Scotiabank with profit up 47% for the July quarter the stock could be very active this week.
Main market activity has been fluid, there are no indications from Friday’s trading, that there will be much change. Investors should keep an eye on Barita Investments, IC Insider’s Top stock in the main market, with bids at $3.51 at the close on Friday, compared with a last sale price of $3.25. There are currently only 5 offers on the board, amounting to 70,000 units and Scotia Group that is set to report earnings for 2016 in the region of $4 per share, after reporting a 47 percent jump in the July quarter. Investors may want to keep an eye out for Cable & Wireless that could well report decent profit for the 12 months to March next year. Note the company’s year end is set to change to December.
Stunning 47% increased Scotia profit
Scotia Group reported a stunning in net earnings jumping 47 percent for the third quarter to $3.3 billion over the 2015 July quarter. For the nine months, net earnings jumped 36.7 percent to $8.2 billion. Total comprehensive income for shareholders of the group ended at $9.3 billion for the nine months ended July 2016 up 10.5 percent from $8.8 billion.
For the third quarter, total comprehensive income of declined from $4.4 billion to $3.66 billion.
The results translate to earnings per share of $1.07 cents in the July quarter and $2.64 for the nine months, with full year’s earnings set to end around $3.90 and would put the PE at 7.8 versus an average of 9 based on estimated 2016 earnings for the main market valuation.
President and CEO of the banking group, Jackie Sharp, in a report to shareholders, commenting on the performance stated, “We continue to show strong performance this year, resulting from the execution of our strategic initiatives to grow revenues and reduce operating costs. All business lines showed good volume growth year over year, as we continued to meet our customer’s diverse needs. Our loan portfolio, after allowance for impairment losses, grew by $15.2 billion or 10.2 percent year over year. Customer Deposits also increased by $42.4 billion or 20.8 percent year over year. Funds under management in our wealth business grew by $15.9 billion or 14.9 percent year over year.”
Jackie Sharp – CEO Scotia Group
Other revenue for the nine months ended July 2016 amounted to $10 billion, an increase of $1.7 billion or 20.6 percent compared to the same period last year. This was due to growth in net fee and commission income from increased transaction volumes on our deposit and payment services, credit card and merchant service business segments, as well as higher foreign currency gains.”
Sharp went on the further state “Operating Expenses amounted to $15.6 billion over the nine months ended July 31, 2016, a decrease of $464 million or 2.9 percent compared to prior year. Salary related expenses declined by $400 million, which offset higher operating expenses of $276 million. There was also a decline in asset tax of $330 million.”
Loans, after allowance for impairment losses amounted to $163.9 billion as at the end of the 2016 quarter, while nonperforming loans totalled $4.4 billion, representing 2.7 percent of total gross loans down from 3.1 percent last year. Total customer liabilities represented by deposits, securities sold under repurchase agreements, and policyholders’ funds grew to $350 billion, an increase of $35.3 billion or 11.2 percent compared to July 2015. A significant portion of the growth was reflected in core deposits, which grew by 20.8 percent year over year the company stated.
The stock that traded at $30.50 on the Jamaica Stock Exchange is undervalued and importantly with strong growth in the third quarter and increased growth in the loan portfolio as well as a pickup in economic growth in Jamaica augurs well for strong growth in profits going forward. Note need to be taken of a possible fall in foreign exchange gains an area that grew sharply in the July quarter by 127 percent to $1.17 billion.
The group declared another dividend of 45 cents per share and seems set to pay total dividend for the fiscal year of $1.80 providing an attractive yield of 6 percent.
SVL trades 12m shares on JSE – Monday
Trading on the Jamaica Stock Exchange on Monday morning resulted in an unusually high level of 34 securities trading. Supreme Ventures (SVL) traded 12,014,100 shares unchanged at $4.70 to be by far the dominant trade. The closest to that is Cable & Wireless with 134,255 units at $1.26.
The bulk of the SVL trade was done between Mayberry Investments, who sold from in house inventory and Scotia 
Investments, the buying broker, who bought for a combination of clients and inhouse purposes.
The market indices all rose moderately, in the main and junior markets, with 9 stocks gaining versus 9 that fell.
The all Jamaica Composite Index rose 147.69 points to 177,882.62, the Jamaica Stock Exchange Market Index climbed 132.06 points to 160,100.46 the Jamaica Stock Exchange combined index gained 144.22 points to close at 171,008.57 points and the junior market index gained 2.11 points to 2,193.31.
Trading levels at 10:45 am was low, resulting in a volume of 12,389,773 shares changing hands, excluding the SVL trade the total volume would have been only 375,673 units and the average trade would be 11,384 units. The average number of shares traded amounts to 364,405 units compared to 6,256 units on Friday.
All Jamaica jumps 2,500 points
Scotia Group jumped to $32.89 from $30.70 with 564,857 shares helped push the All Jamaica composite by nearly 2,500 points in early Friday morning on the Jamaica Stock Exchange. At the same time Blue Power traded 3,881 shares at a new 52 weeks’ high of $16, to gain $1. Activity picked up on the first trading day for July with five company’s stocks trading over 100,000 units and one over 90,000 shares.
After 75 minutes of trading in the early morning session, on Friday, Caribbean Cream traded 96,989 units bat $5.50., Lasco Manufacturing had 193,204 shares trading at $5, Margaritaville Turks traded 150,000 units at 19 US cents, Supreme Ventures traded 300,000 shares at $4.54 and tTech had 746,761 shares trading at $4.50.
Trading resulted in activity in 28 securities, accounting for a volume of 2,175,463 shares compared to as 14 stocks gained and 5 declined. The average number of shares traded amounts to 77,695 units compared to an average of 71,299 units on Thursday.
The all Jamaica Composite Index jumped 2,431.09 points to 179,885.32, the Jamaica Stock Exchange Market Index surged 2,173.75 points to 161,891.19, the Jamaica Stock Exchange combined index climbed 1,823.55 to close at 172,630.57 points andthe junior market index rose 0.27 points to 2,214.16.
Scotia’s big trade – Wednesday
Interest picked up in early Wednesday morning trading on the Jamaica Stock Exchange with as Scotia Group dominated the early trades with 2,291,393 shares at $30.50.
Cable & Wireless had 110,909 units trading at $1.20, Jamaica Broilers Group traded 510,879 units at $14.50, JMMB 
Group had 229,042 ordinary shares trading at $9.80 and AMG Packaging had 124,000 shares changing hands at $13. Salada Foods traded 90,000 shares at $8 and Berger Paints traded 65,938 at $4.38.
The main market recorded gains in the main indices while the junior index incurred a small loss so far.
Trading resulted in activity in 32 securities, accounting for a volume of 3,691,417 shares compared to 965,106 units on Tuesday as 6 stocks gained and 9 declined. The average number of shares traded amounts to 115,357 units compared to an average of 41,961 units on Tuesday.
After 75 minutes of trading in the early morning session, on Wednesday, the all Jamaica Composite Index climbed 290.60 points to 177,608.58, the Jamaica Stock Exchange Market Index gained 259.84 points to 159,855.46, the Jamaica Stock Exchange combined index rose 235.26 to close at 171,384.60 points and the junior market index slipped 0.54 points to 2,251.76.
Kremi in demand but main market falls- Tuesday
Junior market listed IC Insider’s BUY RATED Caribbean Cream 
is in strong demand in early Tuesday morning trading on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, with 571,271 units changing hands at $5, followed by Scotia Group with 163,233 shares at $30.75. No other stock reached the 100,000 unit mark.
The main market suffered a reversal of Monday’s gains while the junior market index gained.
Trading resulted in activity in 21 securities, accounting for a volume of 965,106 units as 8 stocks gained and 6 declined. The average number of shares traded amounts to just units 41,961 compared to an average of 14,733 units on Monday.
After 75 minutes of trading in the early morning session, on Tuesday, the all Jamaica Composite Index dropped 1,559.23 points to 177,151.24, the Jamaica Stock Exchange Market Index dipped 1,394.18 points to 159,446.52, the Jamaica Stock Exchange combined index dived 1,217.73 to close at 171,065.08 points andthe junior market index rose 7.22 points to 2,257.53.
Huge arbitrage between JSE stocks on TTSE
Massy jumped TT$1.74 on the TTSE on Thursday
JMMB Group trades at a 10 percent premium on the Trinidad Stock Exchange to the last traded price in Jamaica while Scotia Investments is trading at the equivalent of $31 versus $26 in Jamaica a 20 percent difference.
Trading on the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange closed on Thursday with 10 active securities changing hands, 3 of which gained, 3 declined, while 4 remained unchanged, as 395,460 shares valued at $11,087,828 changed hands. At the close 1 stock ended at a 52 weeks’ low.
The Composite Index gained 1.18 points to close at 1,113.43, the All T&T Index rose 4.86 points to close at 1,759.43 and the Cross Listed Index fell 0.35 points to close at 61.19.
IC bid-offer Indicator| The Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator ended with 6 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 5 with offers that were lower.
Gains|First Citizens Bank traded 2,009 shares and gained 93 cents to close at $31, Massy Holdings leapt $1.74 to close at $50 with 8,580 shares with a value of $419,474 changing hands and Scotiabank traded 22,019 shares valued at $1,147,585 and jumped 90 cents to end at $53 .
Losses| National Commercial Bank traded 245,000 shares valued at $637,000, lost 5 cents, to close at $2.60, Republic Holdings ended with 76,222 shares with a value of $8,187,594 changing hands, but lost 5 cents in ending at a 52 weeks’ low of $107.43 and Trinidad and Tobago NGL fell 1 cent and closed at $22.25 with 18,730 units valued at $416,625 changing hands.Firm Trades| Clico Investments ended with 3,500 shares changing hands, to close at $22.60, National Flour ended with 2,900 shares changing and closed at $2.30, National Enterprises closed with 4,000 shares changing hands at $11 and Sagicor Financial Corporation traded 12,500 shares to end at $7.
Where are Gleaner’s Q4 results?
I get the impression that the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) no longer balances shareholder interests with listed companies’ interests. Here’s what I mean.
1. Duke Corporation (PriceWaterHouse) failed to pay the Scotia Group’s dividend on April 15th, and claimed that they notified the public via print and electronic media on April 14th. They further claim that they notified the JSE at the same time. Up to today, no such notice has appeared on the JSE website.
2. Supreme Ventures announced a directors’ meeting for April 28th to consider a dividend payment. Despite the JSE rules requiring companies to inform the public of the result of such meetings, with 48 hours, so far, nothing has appeared on the JSE website about it.
3. Gleaner should have published 2015 results up to December, but chose to change their financial to March 31st (i.e. 5 quarters for 2015). No problem, but does that change eliminates their responsibility to publish information for the quarter ending December 2015? What could possibly justify shareholders being kept in the dark about the company’s financial information from October 2015 to March, 2016 – which will not be seen until the end of May, 2016?
A concerned investor.
IC Insider’s Comments
Your views are well founded. For example the issue of the non-reporting of Gleaners December quarterly result was discussed with the stock exchange. The RMOD department gave some flimsy excuse for not requiring it. The JSE rules require either audited accounts within 60 days of the year-end or quarterly report within 45 days of each quarter. Since Gleaner had shifted the year-end then the rules require that they must submit the quarterly to December within 45 days. Discussions were also held with the General Manager of the exchange who agreed that the quarterly is required. To date shareholders are still in the dark on the financial data. Why the Gleaner never saw it wise to keep their shareholders informed by releasing the data, is a big puzzle. After all, other companies in the past that changed year-ends have release the 4th quarter results. As recently as December, last year Access released theirs having changed their year-end to March.
There seems to be a failure in the system to appreciate that the maintenance of the integrity of the system is paramount to protecting investors while at the same time sending a clear message that the system works and can be relied on. Quite a bit of what is allowed to take place is inimical to the growth and development of the capital market.