Shuffling of stocks in the TOP 10 list was quite pronounced this past week with two companies exiting and entering each list. Jetcon Corporation and CAC 2000 slipped out of the Junior Market TOP 10, and were replaced by Dolphin Cove and Lasco Financial.
Entering the TOP 10 main market list are Berger Paints, returning after a recent fall from the list and Grace Kennedy that dropped out previously.
In the main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, Scotia Investments earnings per share have been sharply reduced with the latest results for the half year showing no growth, with the stock falling off the
TOP 10 list as a result, while Salada Foods price rose to $10, resulting in it being pushed off the list.
In trading last week, tTech demand is building while selling has eased with limited supply being shown in the market. Elsewhere, NCB Financial Group is hitching for a major breakout from a wedge formation.
As indicated in recent weeks, market movement continues to be constrained by near term resistance levels which is acting as short term restraint to a break out from current levels for the time being.
The average PE ratio for the Junior Market Top stocks is 7.4 and 7.2 in the main market, these compare favourably with 13.8 for the overall main market and 13 for Junior Market, based on 2017 estimated earnings. Several stocks are trading below the average, and have the potential for more gains for the rest of 2017, barring major negative developments.
In a number of cases, the TOP stocks will need to deliver results in the upcoming quarter in order to send a message that the potential they have will be manifested.
At the close of the week, IC Insider.com’s TOP 10 Junior Market stocks now trade at an average discount of 45 percent to the Junior Market average, while those in the main market are trading at a 48 percent discount, to the average of the market, leaving stocks with room for growth in the months ahead. At the end of April the reading was 35 percent discount for the juniors and 53 percent for the majors.
Express Catering heading for Junior Market
2017 is set to be the year with the most listing on the Jamaica Stock Exchange even as just four listings have made it to the market so far in 2017. At the end of 2016, eighteen new listings were expected based on feedback the stock exchange obtained from brokers and companies expressing an interest in listing.
Express Catering a company operating in the Montego Airport is being brokered by Mayberry Investments in a bid to raise funds for existing shareholders. The company shares are expected to be listed on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange. Existing shareholders plan to sell between 20 to 40 percent of the company to raise around $400 to $500 million at a price range between $1 and $2.50 per share, our source informs IC Insider.com.
The company would be valued around $1 billion and using a PE of 10 times earnings would put the profit at around $100 million. The bulk of passengers passing through the Montego Bay airport are tourist, with the continued increase in hotel rooms passenger traffic will keep growing for some time and provide the company with increased opportunity for growth.
Not much more has so far been disclosed, but an indication of the company’s size can be gleaned from the fact that Montego Bay Airport Ltd generated revenue from Express Catering for rental and commission on food and beverages sales of U$$2.7 million in for 2016, an increase from US$2.5 million in 2015.
In April this year The Gleaner reported that the company has annual revenues at US$14 million from being an exclusive provider of food and beverage products in the post-security lounge of the Sangster International Airport. The company has a diverse group of proprietary brands and international franchises to include such brands as Quiznos Subs and Salads, Aunt Annie’s Pretzels, Nathans Famous Hot Dogs, Cinnabon, Moe’s South Western Grill, Wendy’s, Dominos and Dairy Queen.
Elsewhere, the Musson’s subsidiary, Productive Business Solutions prospectus is said to be at the FSC for vetting, from about three weeks ago and should be close to being released to the public. Productive Business Solutions operates in the Caribbean, Central America and the USA and will come to the market with a US$41 million offer of ordinary shares. Stationery and Supplies Limited is also expected to be coming to the market anytime now.
Main Event flat profit before tax
Main Event Entertainment that went public with an IPO in January this year is reporting flat profit before tax and slightly lower net profit after tax of $3.3 million. Profit before tax for the year to October ended at $59.8 million com-pared to $60.3 million in 2015.
Profit after tax came in at $56.5 million versus $60 million in 2015, the out turn is lower than the $60 million the internal figures to September last year that was included in the prospectus showed. The net profit translates to earnings per share of just 23.5 cents with 240 million shares applicable at the date of the financials.
Return on average equity amounted to a strong 41 percent, with shareholders’ equity at the end of the period being $242 million.
The results emanated from a 9.5 percent rising in revenues to $1.13 billion, the growth was slowed b y a big drop in revenues from Digital Signage. With gross profit climbing 13 percent to $429 million. Expenses rose by 15.7 percent to $354 million. Revenue during the year was generated mostly by Entertainment promotion activities of $854.7 million in 2016 from $742.7 million in 2015. Audio and film contributed $189.5 million compared to $140 in 2015 and Digital signage of $88 million versus $151 million in 2015. The auditors signed off on their report on the 5th of June, an indication that all was not well with the financial reporting.
Main Event went public at $2 in January and now trades on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange at $6.50.
Sagicor Barbados undervalued but
The Barbadian based Sagicor Group is reporting net profit of US$23.4 million for the first three months of 2017, compared to the prior year of US$22.3 million. Profit flowed from revenues for the quarter of US$282.5 million, compared to US $264.4 million for the corresponding period in 2016, an increase of US$18.1 million.
Profit attributable to shareholders’ of the group ended at US$13.3 million, compared to US$13.9 million for the 2016 period. Earnings per common share was 4.4 US cents, compared to the prior year of 4.6 US cents.
Net premium revenue rose t0 US$167.7 million, exceeding the prior year amount of US$157.3 million. Net investment income and other income rose to US$114.8 million compared to the prior year’s US$107 million.
Operating expenses rose to US$115 million from US$101.4 million for the same period in 2016. “Higher administration costs were incurred as a result of the expansion of cards and payments business in our Jamaica segment, along with the incurrence of some non-recurring costs also relating to our Jamaica segment”, Stephen McNamara, Chairman, stated in his report to shareholders. Policy holders’ benefits inched to US$137.2 million from US$134 million for the previous year.
Sagicor Group Jamaica a subsidiary of the Barbadian compnay.
Total comprehensive income grew to US$28.6 million, compared to US$19.9 million for the same period last year. Included in comprehensive income were net gains on financial assets of US$7.9 million. “Retranslation losses Sagicor Group Jamaica, a subsidiary of the Barbados company.[/caption] amounted to US $0.7 million, compared to US $6.4 million reported in the prior year, and resulted from declines in the Jamaica and Trinidad currency against the United States dollar”, the Chairman stated.
Total assets amount to US $6.6 billion, with liabilities of US$5.8 billion and shareholders’ equity of US$818 million. The Group’s debt, which is included in other liabilities, was US$405.3 million.
The group’s stocks traded on the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange atTT$8.99 and in Barbados at BD$2.45, (around US$1.30 per share. The price puts the PE ratio around 7 times 2017 earnings. The problem is that Barbados where the company is head quartered is in the midst of major economic problems that could make investing in the stock riskier than normal.
1 stock rise & 5 fall on TTSE
Witco had the largest trade on the TTSE on Friday.
The market closed with 12 active securities compared to 18 on Thursday with 1 stock advancing, 5 declining and 6 holding firm. A total of 104,081 shares changed hands at a value of $6,914,298 compared to Thursday’s 610,096 shares valued at $3,541,855.
The Composite Index lost 0.91 points to 1,242.08, the All T&T Index fell 1.37 points to 1,827.95 and the Cross Listed Index was down 0.06 points to 87.99.
IC bid-offer Indicator|The Investor’s Choice bid-offer ended with 6 stocks with bids higher than last selling prices and 8 with lower offers.
Gains| Scotiabank closed at $59.01 with a 1 cent gain trading 226 shares.
Losses| Clico Investment traded at $22.50, losing 1 cent with 11,701 units changing hands, Guardian Holdings closed at $16, with a loss of 5 cents exchanging 17,669 shares, NCB Financial Group lost 2 cents with trades of 1,717 shares to close at $3.78,
while Trinidad Cement was down 3 cents, closing at $4.17 with an exchange of 4,769 units and Trinidad & Tobago NGL closed 79 cents lower to $22.71 trading 3,362 shares.Firm Trades| Angostura Holdings traded 1,000 units at $15.01, Guardian Media closed at $18.65 trading 3,224 units, JMMB Group held firm at $1.22 with 1,000 units changing owners, One Caribbean Media closed at $16.48 with an exchange of 1,505 shares. Sagicor Financial remained at $9.01 trading 10,200 units and West Indian Tobacco was unchanged at $127 trading 47,708 shares valued at $6,058,916.
Main Event doubles IPO price
Staff members of Main Event
The stock traded on the first day of listing, the 8th of February, at $2.61 but with just 100 units trading, with the next trade, taking place at $3.70 for 100 units. On Friday February the 10, 15,722,362 units traded with the price ending at $4.70 for a rise of 135 percent. Monday February 13, the stock closed trading at $.81 while trading 537,458 shares. On Tuesday the price slipped back to end at $4.51 as 757,244 shares changed hands. Wednesday saw trading in 696,685 shares be executed at $4.50, on Thursday 592,737 shares traded to close at $4.51 and 420,952 units traded on Friday to close at $4.80, to crown a successful two weeks for the stock that has gained 140 percent from the IPO price.
The stock which IC Insider.com project will earn around 35 cents per share in 2017, now trades at a PE of 14, with the junior market average now around 11.5, the upside from now will be challenging.
Scary data pushing some stocks
Overvalued Cargo Handlers, rated a buy by Barita.
IC Insider.com attempted to get an understanding of this unusual development of scary PE ratios. One possible clue came from two seasoned investors. One bought shares in Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) on the assumption that the PE was only 4, he was unaware that the earnings per share, last reported by the company, was not adjusted for the 5 to 1 stock split. The other investors pointed out that Cargo Handlers was selected by Barita Investments as the top junior market stock for 2017. That is a strange selection as research going back to the early years of the JSE, shows that only around 20 percent of top 10 stocks ends in the top 10 in the subsequent year, in very bullish periods, even less do so. A look at Barita’s stock market update chart, shows the Cargo Handlers having a PE of just 11.47 with earnings of $2.18, but the earnings is well ahead of the 43 cents the company reported for 2016. The PE for the stock, based on 2016 earnings is near 60 and 46
Jamaica Producers is one of the company’s that investors seem to be pushing the price, based on pre-bonus earnings.
Cargo Handlers may not be the sole stock that investors seem to be ignoring the effect of stock split on values. Barita shows JSE with a PE of 12.5 with earnings of $1.02, thankfully there is no recommendation for this one. Jamaica Producers is shown with a PE of 6.52 from earnings of $3.02, with a buy recommendation. Producers earnings are at best inflated with one off items, with them earning at the above level highly unlikely, as such the stock boast a PE of 40 times 2017 earnings. Pan Jam Investment is shown with earnings per share of $3.97 and a PE of 10.08. The only problem is that Pan Jam earnings for the nine months from continuing operations for 2016, is in the order of $1.92 making reaching the Barita’s earnings forecast challenging.
When the quarterly reports start coming in with adjusted earnings, it could be a huge disappointment and wake up call for some investors. It just does not seem smart for investors to be buying stocks that are valued well ahead of the market and expect to beat the market, unless there are huge increased profits down the road.
10 TOP JSE main market stocks for 2017
It is not always that main market stocks are more attractive buys than those in the junior market, but that is what is happening currently. Strong gains, in 2016 to end of January this year, in junior market companies, resulted in Jamaica Stock Exchange main market having stocks with better values than in the junior market.
The end result is that unlike other years when the junior market stocks tended to outperform those of in the main market by a ratio of 2 to 1, this year could see both markets gaining roughly the same.
The big question, of course, is what will be the accepted PE of the market? Currently, while the average for 2016 is 17 for the main market and the ratio based on 2017 estimated earnings is 11, with 11 stocks selling above this level, Jamaica Producers and Kingston Wharves have PE ratios over 30 times 2017 earnings.
The main market faces turbulence currently as the market is sitting just below a major resistance level around 243,000 points on the All Jamaica Index. If it can overcome this level, then it will encounter resistance around the 265,000 mark.
The TOP 10 list includes 4 financial sector stocks, two communication stocks and two from the manufacturing sector.
Cable & Wireless has made considerable progress in recent years, moving from major annual losses to a stage where they reported a small profit in fiscal year 2016 to March and should break even for the nine months to December, the new financial year end. Revenues have been climbing at double digit pace and should increase even more with the upturn in economic activity and with more persons being employed. The company recently raised rates on a number of its services that should help move revenues upwards. They have also made considerable recovery in their cellular customer base and have expanded it, generating increased revenues as a result. IC Insider.com forecast calls for a profit in 2017 with growth in 2018 as well.
On this basis, the stock is set to make solid gains. The only factor preventing that is a strong possibility that the parent company may move with an offer for the minority shares that would place a cap on the upside.
Radio Jamaica is under selling pressure as investors ignore the fundamentals and an improving economy that could result in increased profits and growth in the stock. The merger with the Gleaner was predicated a great deal on cost cutting. The group is doing just that and should benefit from a stronger marketing team and from increased advertising as businesses augment their advertising spend.
Caribbean Cement cut cost sharply in 2016 and saw growth in local sales for the first six months. However, closure of the plant for upgrading resulted in lost sales in the third quarter but sales recovered in the fourth quarter. Going into 2017, the cost savings should reduce operating cost and boost gross profit margins. Increased economic activity and lower cost of capital is leading to an uptick in the construction sector and consequently, an increase in demand for cement. The stock remains highly undervalued and has room for major gains ahead.
Barita is one of the top IC Insider’s stock for growth over the next 12 months in the main market.
Pulse Investments reported earnings of $1.35 last year and 32 cents for the September quarter that places the stock in the undervalued category even as the price climbed to $7.10 recently. It could go higher, but a bit of the earnings flow from revaluation surplus on property and that may cause some investors to discount the earnings. In a very bullish market, that may not matter much, for many investors. One positive, is that the cash flow statement shows cash inflows growing at a much higher level than in 2015.
Keith Duncan, Group Chief Executive Officer of JMMB.
Berger Paints had a very good run to December last year, with strong gains in profit as revenues grew attractively. Growth should continue into 2018 fiscal year, helped by increased building activity and an improving economy. Dividend payment should be high, thus boosting yields.
Scotia Investments should benefit in much the same way as Barita Investments. The investment bank reported earnings of $1.27 for the October quarter and IC Insider.com forecast is $4.96 for 2017. The increase should benefit from widening net interest income, as interest rates soften and more funds generated are added to the pool of interest earning pool as well as from growth in unit trust funds that will engender higher fee income, in addition to robust stock market activities that will also enhance fee income for the brokerage arm. On the negative side, the revaluation now taking place in the local currency could negatively affect earnings from trading in this area.
Carreras is one of the few stocks that have languished at the old price while many others have recorded active gains. The company just announced an interim payment of $2.20 bringing the payment since August last year to $5.40. The full year’s amount is likely to be in the order of $7.60 for a yield on the current price of 11.5 percent. This yield will not last as investors are going to eventually push it downward by bidding the price up as an income substitute. IC Insider’s forecast
is for earnings of $9 per share for the 2018 fiscal year. The stock may well languish at current levels for a while. The longer it stays the better for those investors who may want to add it to their portfolio.National Commercial Bank reported impressive profit results for their December quarter with a jump of 49 percent to $3.56 billion with earnings per share ending at $1.45, up from 96 cents in 2016. IC Insider.com forecast earnings of $8 per share for the current year. NCB declared an increase in its interim dividend payment from 50 cents in 2016 to 60 cents per ordinary stock unit payable in February. The payment represents 42.76 percent of the first quarter profits and is an indication of future payment.
Persons associated with this article may have an interest in the companies commented on.
New trading platform slows trading – Monday
Scotia climbs $4.99
on Monday to close at $44.99.
The end result is that trading reports were late and included errors some of which were sorted out and some have not. The market closed on Monday, as 42 securities changed hands in the overall market, ending with 19 stocks rising and 8 falling, including 6 stocks gaining and 2 declining, in the junior market while 5 securities ended at new 52 weeks’ closing highs.
All major market indices rose moderately compared with the sharp increase for the past 7 trading days. The all All Jamaica Composite Index jumping 2,645.20 points to close at record 242,937.76, the JSE Market Index climbed 2,365.27 points to finish at record close of 221,604.07 and the JSE combined index grew 2,425.63 points, to close at new closing high of 236,136.77. The movement of the main market, for the year to date, resulted to gains of 15.6 percent, for the all Jamaica Composite Index.
At the close, 4,099,498 units valued at $80,043,145 changed hands, compared to 7,100,472 units valued at $124,253,097 changing hands on Friday. Of the stocks traded, the junior market accounted for 1,530,168 units, valued at $11,104,756.
The average trade for the day in the main market ended at 104,123 shares compared to an average of 198,939 units on Friday. For the month to date, an average of 177,355 shares traded, versus an average of units 250,588 units up to the prior trading day. January ended with an average of 592,602 units.IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 11 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 4 with lower offers.
In market activity, Barita Investments traded 20,000 units at $7.50, Berger Paints advanced 33 cents to close at $11.40 with trades of 9,610 shares, Cable and Wireless traded 967,561 units at $1.15, Caribbean Cement lost 1 cent to close at $33 with an exchange of 17,621 shares. Carreras gained 75 cents and closed at $66.75 with 20,627 units changing hands, Grace Kennedy added 14 cents, closing at $40.64 with trades of 28,845 units. Jamaica Broilers lost 2 cents trading 4,414 shares to close at $15.48, Jamaica Producers traded 99,258 units, rising $1 to end at a 52 weeks’ closing high of $19, Jamaica Stock Exchange closed at $6.21, and a gain of 61 cents with 20,000 shares changing hands, JMMB Group gained 49 cents, to close at 52 weeks’ closing high of $17.99 with 87,666 units traded. Kingston Properties exchanged 9,400 shares at $10 for a gain of 50 cents, Kingston Wharves closed at $33 with trades of 9,017 units, National Commercial Bank closed at $64.90, after swapping 23,719 shares.
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10 TOP stocks for 2017 back ground
C&W could be 2017 top stock from the main market.
Technical indicators show that both the main and junior markets broke through major resistance levels and seem poised to reach new highs with the all Jamaica composite index seeming poised to hit 290,000 points and around 3,400 points for the junior market index before the year is out.
Projected earnings for 2017, and what now appears to be rising PE ratios, suggest the possibility of a much bigger move ahead for the local stocks.
While the junior market seems to be in the clear to move on to 3,400 before any major resistance, the same is not the case for the main market. The latter is only a few thousand points from a major resistance that has it genesis in 1992 with the major resistance in 2005. This coming week will be a big test. Friday’s initial pull back in the morning session and push back of National Commercial Bank, Scotia Group and PanJam Investment may be early signs that we may be at a tough region presently.
Treasury bill rates are set to decline this year, against the background of stability in the Jamaican dollar, with strong inflows of foreign currency into the system and low inflation. Here technical indicators are pointing to 192 Treasury bill rates going to 4.5 percent, with it reaching around 5 percent late this year or early next year and the lower level in 2018.
With low rates, more funds would be flowing into the stock market driving up valuations, with indications that the current prices for a number of stocks suggest could put PEs around 20 time earnings. Added to this, a look at orders for the majority of stocks indicates a chronic shortage of supply of stocks for sale. The implications, with the majority of stocks priced around 10 times 2017 earnings or less should result in a sharp increase in prices that would take both markets well beyond where technical indicators suggest, in the next few months.
Company expansion| The best rate of growth in the economy for years is expected to continue, with prospects of 2.5 to 3 percent seemingly on the cards for 2017. Against this background, most companies appear set to benefit with increased sales. The real big gainers should come from those companies that are undergoing expansion. They will have a double benefit, that from the pickup in economic activity and from the expansion.
Then there are those companies that will benefit from lower interest rates and pick up in stock market activity. Investors would be wise not to see bullishness in stock prices as a prelude to increased instant profits in all cases. An example is the Jamaica Stock Exchange, while the market is exhibiting a high level of bullishness, it is not translating into high volumes and value in the daily trades as yet. In the peak of the market in 2014, the JSE traded $50 billion currently, the level is running around $35 billion annualised. Last year in the first quarter, the JSE earned a big increase in fees as a result of the Desnoes & Geddes share trade. This year, there is no such a transaction expected in the quarter. Later on, the stock exchange is likely to benefit from increased trading levels as well as increased listings in 2017, with the latter also helping to increase the volume of stocks trading.
There are companies that will benefit considerably from cash provided by operations that will be used to generate increased business. This is most applicable for the smaller junior market companies. For a detail look at the Top 10 stocks for the rest of 2017 in the junior and main market, see Top 10 junior stocks and Top 10 main market stocks.
