Scary data pushing some stocks
February 12, 2017 by IC Insider.com
IC Insider.com attempted to get an understanding of this unusual development of scary PE ratios. One possible clue came from two seasoned investors. One bought shares in Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) on the assumption that the PE was only 4, he was unaware that the earnings per share, last reported by the company, was not adjusted for the 5 to 1 stock split. The other investors pointed out that Cargo Handlers was selected by Barita Investments as the top junior market stock for 2017. That is a strange selection as research going back to the early years of the JSE, shows that only around 20 percent of top 10 stocks ends in the top 10 in the subsequent year, in very bullish periods, even less do so. A look at Barita’s stock market update chart, shows the Cargo Handlers having a PE of just 11.47 with earnings of $2.18, but the earnings is well ahead of the 43 cents the company reported for 2016. The PE for the stock, based on 2016 earnings is near 60 and 46 times, IC Insider’s 2017 projection, making it the richest priced stock on the market.
Cargo Handlers may not be the sole stock that investors seem to be ignoring the effect of stock split on values. Barita shows JSE with a PE of 12.5 with earnings of $1.02, thankfully there is no recommendation for this one. Jamaica Producers is shown with a PE of 6.52 from earnings of $3.02, with a buy recommendation. Producers earnings are at best inflated with one off items, with them earning at the above level highly unlikely, as such the stock boast a PE of 40 times 2017 earnings. Pan Jam Investment is shown with earnings per share of $3.97 and a PE of 10.08. The only problem is that Pan Jam earnings for the nine months from continuing operations for 2016, is in the order of $1.92 making reaching the Barita’s earnings forecast challenging.
When the quarterly reports start coming in with adjusted earnings, it could be a huge disappointment and wake up call for some investors. It just does not seem smart for investors to be buying stocks that are valued well ahead of the market and expect to beat the market, unless there are huge increased profits down the road.
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