The market made another run at the 300,000 mark on the All Jamaican Composite Index on Monday, but fell just under 1,000 points shy, with the index ending at 299,091.16 points as the investors continued their bullish attack on a limited set of stocks.
The Main Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange ended with 23 securities changing hands, 9 advanced, 12 declined and 2 traded firm with 310,999,356 units valued at $2,974,897,171 as Supreme Ventures accounted for 307 million units. One stock traded in the US market resulting in the price rising on small volume.
In market activity, volumes are those trades for the day and the closing prices are those at which the last trade took place. In the main activity, Barita Investments concluded trading 24 cents higher at $8, with 10,673 units changing hands, Cable & Wireless rose 2 cents to $1.02, with 126,398 shares, Caribbean Cement ended at $28, with just 144 units, Carreras ended trading with a loss of 2 cents at $13.48, with 252,898 stock units changing hands, Grace Kennedy finished with a loss of 40 cents at $43, in trading 38,318 units. Jamaica Broilers settled with a loss of 50 cents at $18, while exchanging 8,266 stock units, Jamaica Producers concluded trading with a loss of 80 cents at $15.20, with 6,459 shares, Jamaica Stock Exchange finished 10 cents higher at $7.70, with 27,315 units, JMMB Group traded 89 cents higher at $26, with 36,897 stock units, Kingston Properties settled with a loss of 5 cents at $7.15, with 2,000 units, 
Kingston Wharves finished 75 cents higher at $30.75, with 20,539 shares. Mayberry Investments exchanged 9,218 stock units at $4.50, property company, 138 Student Living finished 1 cent higher at $5.41, with 2,700 shares, PanJam Investment shed $1 to end at $43, with 11,244 stock units, Pulse Investments traded with a loss of 2 cents at $1.80, trading 69,750 shares, Radio Jamaica settled with a loss of 9 cents at $1.11, with 87,688 units. Sagicor Group jumped $4.99 to a record $39.99, with 52,394 shares, Sagicor Real Estate Fund closed with a loss of 8 cents at $13, after trading 3,100,000 units, Scotia Group fell 96 cents to $50, with 91,270 stock units, Seprod settled with a loss of $1.50 at $28.50, with 8,160 shares and Supreme Ventures finished with a loss of 60 cents at $9.50, with 306,999,685 stock units changing hands. In the main market preference segment, JMMB Group closed at $1.15, with 600 units and in the US dollar market Productive Business Solution rose 0.25 US cents in trading 2,300 units to close at 60 US cents.
Big run for Jamaican stocks coming
JSE Main market showing next major resistance around the 360,000 point level on the al Jamaica Index
The current state of the Jamaican stock market in one of contrast with the main market hitting 5 days of record close and with gains of 40 percent for the year to date and Junior Market that was up 31 percent in May is now up just 14 percent.
With stability present in the forex market for the Jamaican dollar, lower interest rates being paid on money market funds and with business confidence at record high levels, funds are now moving into the main market stocks with less interest being shown in the Junior Market.
Prices in the US dollar market have come off, after the index was up 63 percent at 268.73 points in February, up from 164.50 at the start of the year, but it is only up 12 percent now with the index at 184.86 points at the close of trading on Friday.
Jamaica Main market stocks itching to break out of channel that stretches back to 2014
The Junior Market was driven up by excessive buying that drove a number of the stocks to excessive valuations which the market has been correcting for, resulting in the sharp pull back from the all-time high, even then there are some that are still overvalued based on the average valuation of other stocks. The market still has several undervalued stocks but the focus on the bigger and more liquid main market is sucking some energy from the junior ones.
Based on estimated 2017 earnings, the average PE of the junior and main markets are just over 13 times earnings. The main market has more than half of the market trading below this level. Included in the list are Berger Paints with a PE of just 5, Caribbean Cement at 6, Jamaica Broilers 7, JMMB Group at 8, Grace Kennedy, NCB Financial and Sagicor Group at 10. The market has Jamaica Producers selling at 32 times 2017 earnings and Kingston Wharves at 27 times earnings with Kingston Properties at a rich 36 times and are clearly overvalued currently. Jamaica Stock Exchange and 138 Student Living at 22 are well ahead of the market average.
Junior Market under pressure, testing support around 2,900 points.
In the Junior Market Medical Disposables is priced at 6 times earnings, General Accident 6, Caribbean Producers 7, Stationery and Office Supplies, Caribbean Cream and Main Event at 10. Just under half of Junior Market stocks are trading blow the market average with about 25 percent well above the average.
Technical reading| The main market broke through major resistance for the second time since September at 290,000 points, that has its genesis in 1992 and connecting in 2005. The market faces some short term resistance around 300,000 points which should be broken through before long ahead of moving to the next sort term resistance around 360,000 points with 505,000 on the all Jamaica Index, the next big stop. The market has been trading in a distinct upward sloping channel from mid-2014 until now and seems set to break out and move higher.
The Junior Market chart is a big contrast to that of the main market.
Wigton Wind farm should list on the JSE main market in early 2017 with a large capitalization
While the latter is clearly heading higher with new highs being created, the Junior Market index is flashing negative signals. The market has formed a head and shoulder pattern which is a negative signal and the short term 45 days moving average has broken through both the medium term 200 days moving average and longer term moving averages. The market has broken through the channel that it has been trading in since late 2015. There appear to be support around the 2,900 points level but it could go down to 2,800 points where the next support is and it will left to be seen 2,900 points will be the floor ahead of third quarter results that could change the course of the movement.
With just over 2 months for the year to end investors should start to have an eye open for major factors that could make big differences to earnings in 2018 when making investment assessment now. Some of these are, more reduction in interest rates, continued strong foreign exchange growth, low inflation, increased construction activity, increased activity in the tourism sector and of course the potential for several new listings to come to market between now and then. IC Insider.com is aware of 8 such potential listings. The list include, Wigton Wind Farm, Jamaica Public Service as a result of Government of Jamaica’s planned sale of its 20 percent share in the company, Neveast Stationery, KIW International, a relatively new business in Montego Bay and a large manufacturing business, operating out of St Catherine.
Sagicor out C&W in TOP 10
JMMB Group Traded at a new high of $27.99 on Friday.
In a week when Jamaica Stock Exchange main market closed at record high each day, JMMB Group that IC Insider.com said was itching to rise, surged to an intraday high of $27.99 and ended at a record close of $25.11 but still remains in the TOP 10 Main market stocks.
Cable and Wireless is the only new entrant to the listings, just edging out Sagicor Group in the main market, there were no new change to the Junior Market list. With the company now clearly in the profit lane things should be getting even better in 2018 making it a long term investment proposition. Barita Investments came in for increased selling in late September and still remains under pressure with limited buying interest, as investors await details of the offer from Cornerstone, to acquire majority shares in the company. This could be a case of investors missing the bus by waiting, with the net asset value at $7 as of June this year and the price just 10 percent above.
Trading in shares of Berger Paints was suspended on Thursday with resumption scheduled for October 17, the stock has been trading ahead of the price of $10.88 offered by Ansa Coatings and should be trading in the $20 region, and is clearly one for the future with growth taking place in the construction sector. 
All indications suggest that very few shareholders will take up the offer when it closes at the end of Monday.
Investors appear to have switched attention from Junior Market to main market stocks, with the latter seemingly set to break through short term resistance around 300,000 points on the all Jamaica Index on the way to the next major resistance at 365,000 point range.
The average PE ratio for the Junior Market Top stocks is at 7.7 and a PE at 7.1f or the main market TOP 10. The average PE for the overall main market trades at 13.6 and 13.2 for Junior Market, based on 2017 estimated earnings.
At the close of the week, IC Insider.com’s TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 42 percent to the average of the market for Junior Market Top stocks and it remains at 48 percent for the main market.
TOP 10 – SOS & Barita back in
The recently listed Stationery and Office Supplies is back in the Junior Market Top 10 stocks along with CAC 2000 with the price falling to $6.50 while Barita Investments with a fall in price to $8 is back in the Main market list.
Barita Investments has come in for increased selling and limited buying as investors await details of offer from Cornerstone for the majority of the company’ shares.
Investors should keep an eye on Berger Paints this week, as investors could push this one higher as they sense the continuation of listing for the stock and a bounce when offer by Ansa Coatings closes early in October. 
JMMB Group is itching to rise with limited supply and guarded buying.
The average PE ratio for the Junior Market Top stocks is at 7.7 and the PE for the main market TOP 10, ends the week at 6.8. The average PE for the overall main market trades at 13.1 and 13.4 for Junior Market, based on 2017 estimated earnings.
At the close of the week, IC Insider.com’s TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 43 percent to the average of the market for Junior Market Top stocks and it remains at 48 percent for the main market.
JSE main market slips – Monday
Scotia Group dropped $3 to $46.
Trading on the Main and US dollar market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange ended with an almost even advance decline ratio resulting in the market indices slipping in a shortened trading session that commenced in the afternoon after the regular closing time had passed.
The volume of securities trading and the days last traded price are, Barita Investments that ended with a loss of 25 cents at $7.75, with 6,700 shares. Berger Paints concluded trading with a loss of 75 cents at $11.25, with 7,256 units, Cable & Wireless ended with a loss of 4 cents at $1, with 170,543 stocks changing hands, Carreras finished 50 cents higher at $11.50, with 464,114 units, Grace Kennedy finished $1.45 higher at $43.50, with 5,737 shares, Jamaica Broilers ended 50 cents higher at $17.50, with 39,878 stock units, Jamaica Producers concluded trading at $15, with 13,350 shares, JMMB Group finished 70 cents higher at $22.70, with 41,657 units, Kingston Properties finished at $7, with 2,000 shares, Kingston Wharves dropped $2.22 trading 18,341 shares to end at $28.51. Mayberry Investments traded with a loss of 50 cents at $4.10, with 2,138 units, 
NCB Financial fell 92 cents to $86.88 with 73,643 units changing hands. 1834 Investments ending at $1.40, with 93,917 stocks, PanJam Investment traded with a loss of 50 cents at $35, with 146,100 units, Portland JSX traded at $9.30, with 2,450 shares, Pulse Investments closed 9 cents higher at $1.80, with 7,701 stock units, Radio Jamaica closed at $1.12, with 49,263 units, Sagicor Group settled with a loss of 40 cents at $34, with 55,255 shares, Sagicor Real Estate Fund concluded trading 50 cents higher at $11.50, with 7,480 shares. Scotia Group dropped $3 to $46, with 44,994 stock units changing hands, Scotia Investments concluded trading 1 cents higher at $35.51, with 2,900 units, Supreme Ventures ended 9 cents higher at $11.09, with 699 shares.
In the main market preference segment, Jamaica Money Market Brokers 7.5% preference share traded at $2, with 232,000 units and JMMB Group 7.5% preference share closed at $1.19, with 503,100 shares.
In the US dollar market, Margaritaville traded just 100 units at 30 US cents, Productive Business Solution US ordinary shares lost 3 cents and closed at 62 US cents trading 750 units, Proven Investments US ordinary share closed at 23.99 US cents, after rising 1.99 US cents in exchanging 99,223 units.
570,000 Berger shares snapped up
Berger Paints traded 570,000 shares on Friday and closed at $12.
The JSE market indices rose on Friday as Scotia Group recovered some ground with 9 other stocks posting gains even as 11 fell in value.
At the close of market activity, Barita Investments closed with a loss of 15 cents at $8 with 323 units trading, Berger Paints added 75 cents to close at $12 with 572,833 shares changing hands, Cable and Wireless closed at $1.04, gaining 3 cents with 13,270 units, Caribbean Cement closed with a loss of 30 cents at $25.50 with 67,941 shares, Carreras gained 20 cents, and closed at $11 with 417,758 units, Grace Kennedy traded $1.45 lower, to $42.05 with 35,700 units. Jamaica Broilers advanced $1.25 to $17 exchanging 28,943 shares, Jamaica Producers declined by $1, closing at $15 with 6,650 units,
Jamaica Stock Exchange closed at $6.50 with 4,960 stock units, JMMB Group closed at $22, after falling $1 in trading 148,514 shares. Kingston Wharves with 100 units traded rose $1.23 to $30.73, Mayberry Investments lost 9 cents, closing at $4.60 with 31,800 shares, NCB Financial Group traded 70 cents lower to $87.80 with 90,395 shares, 1834 Investments lost 4 cents to close at $1.40 with 30,000 shares. PanJam Investment dropped $3.50 to $35.50 with 22,813 stock units, Pulse Investments closed at $1.71, gaining 6 cents with 126,500 shares, Radio Jamaica closed at $1.12 trading 72,310 shares, Sagicor Group gained 40 cents, and ended at $34.40 with 15,770 shares, Sagicor Real Estate Fund gained 39 cents, closing at $11 with 1,850 units, Scotia Group closed $2.90 higher at $49 while exchanging 58,409 shares, Scotia Investments fell $1.50, closing at $35.50 with 1,412 units, Seprod with gains of $1, ended at $34 with 1,000 units, Supreme Ventures closed at $11, having gained 15 cents with 50,150 shares changing hands. Productive Business Solution US ordinary shares closed at 65 US cents trading 1,920 units, Proven Investments US ordinary shares closed at 22 US cents, after losing 1.99 US cents in exchanging 241,067 units and JMMB Group 7.5% preference share closed traded at $1.19 with 171,913 units.
JSE suffers set back in forward move
JMMB Group inching higher on limited supply of stocks.
Large fall in the prices of are Caribbean Cement, Carreras and Scotia Group push the market down appreciably on Thursday and strong gains in PanJam Investment and JMMB Group could only dent the fall.
At the close of market activity, Berger Paints gained of 25 cents and closed at $11.25 with 148,982 shares, Cable and Wireless closed at $1.01, having lost 9 cents with 117,235 shares changing hands, Caribbean Cement with a loss of $2.20 at $25.80 with 30,123 shares, Carreras traded $1.20 lower to $10.80 with 1,217,220 shares, Ciboney Group exchanged 367,400 shares at 16 cents, Grace Kennedy gained 49 cents to settle at $43.50 with 11,300 units. Jamaica Producers advanced $1, to $16 in exchanging 34,495 shares, Jamaica Stock Exchange closed with gains of 5 cents, at $6.50 with 1,379 units, JMMB Group ended at a 52 weeks’ closing high of $23, after adding $1, trading 16,843 shares. Kingston Wharves traded at $29.50 with the exchange of 1,740 units, Mayberry Investments lost 1 cent, closing at $4.69 with 298,018 shares, NCB Financial traded 49 cents lower to $88.50 with 35,806 shares, 138 Student Living exchanged 20,000 shares at $4.75, 
while 1834 Investments gained 4 cents to close at $1.44 with trades of 6,520 units. PanJam Investment jumped $3.50 to $39 with 61,275 shares, Pulse Investments gained 23 cents to close at $1.65, with 12,581 shares, Radio Jamaica added 1 cent, in closing at $1.12 trading 305,416 shares, Sagicor Group closed with a loss of 52 cents at $34 with 4,550 units, Sagicor Real Estate Fund declined 39 cents in closing at $10.61 with 10,000 shares, Salada Foods traded 3,316 units at $8, Scotia Group plunged $4.90 to $46.10, in exchanging 117,999 shares, Scotia Investments closed at $37 with 30,453 shares, Seprod ended with a loss of $1 at $33 with 500 units, Supreme Ventures exchanged 131,400 shares at $10.85. Margaritaville Turks US ordinary shares closed at 30 US cents trading 5,500 units, Proven Investments US ordinary shares traded 13,000 units at 24 US cents, JMMB Group US 6% preference share closed at US$1.12 with 7,280 units and Proven 8.25% cumulative redeemable preference share lost 5 cents to close at $5.25 with 20,000 units.
JSE main market falls – Thursday
Scotiabank dropped $4.90 and helped put a sharp dent in the indices on Thursday.
The main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange indices suffering a big fall at the close on Thursday on limited volume. The All Jamaica Composite Index declined by 3,472.85 points to close at 285,659.32, the JSE Market Index fell 3,164.16 points to 260,267.95 and the JSE US dollar market index was down 0.45 points to 191.30.
Big players in the days loss are Caribbean Cement falling $2.20, Carreras down $1.20, Scotia Group with a fall of $4.90 while a big jump of $3.50 in PanJam Investment and $1 in JMMB Group, helped to alleviate the pain.
At the close of trading, 25 securities changed hands in the main market with 3 trading in the US dollar market, leading to 9 stocks advancing and 10 declining. The main market ended with 3,004,551 units valued at $33,829,615 changing hands compared to 1,826,710 units valued at $21,069,859 at the close on Wednesday. Trading in the US dollar market accounted for 25,780 units valued at US$12,873 bringing the total of all trades to J$35,516,032.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading in the main and US dollar markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 7 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 1 with lower offers.
The main market ended trading with an average of 120,182 units for an average of $1,353,185 for each security traded compared to an average of 91,336 units valued at $1,053,493. The average volume and value for the month to date ended at $311,195 units with an average value of $3,032,711 compared with an average of 324,839 units with an average value of $3,144,679 on the previous trading day. The average volume and value for August ended at 184,094 units with an average value of $4,336,090.
NCB Capital stock talk
NCB Capital Markets (NCBCM) recommends that investors maintain focus on stocks of companies with diversified revenue streams by operations, geography and currency in its latest recommendations on the Jamaican stock market.
According to the brokerage house, main market companies tend to have more mature operations, stronger fundamentals and are likely to pay more attractive dividends for investors heavily dependent on cash flows. This should form the core of a moderate investor’s equity portfolio. Investors with the appropriate risk appetite should also take a closer look at some Junior Market stocks given that the potential for growth is greater than their main market counterparts. More aggressive investors should also consider taking an active approach to stock market investing by crystalizing gains on stocks that are trading above their fair value estimates, with a view to re-enter at more favourable prices in the near term.
Jamaica Broilers is a recommended buy by NCBCM
Interestingly, there are only three stocks recommended as buys, with six stocks placed on the sell list.
NCBCM recommends investors buy Jamaica Broiler with a forward price of $24, JMMB Group with a forward price of $23.80 and PanJam Investment with a forward price of $43.63.
The brokerage house is recommending selling Caribbean Cement, based on their assessment that the fair value price for the cement producer is $29.92 which is below the current price of $29.99, also on the sell list is Honey Bun, that they are saying that the PE ratio and price to book multiples for Junior Market manufacturing companies were used to derive a fair value estimate of HONBUN with a forward price of $3.70. Jamaica Producers is on the sell list as well with a forward price of $12.99 based on a price to book valuation, Mayberry Investments’ forward price is put at $3.95 and therefore a sell NCBCM says. The fair value of Scotia Group is estimated at $46.48, which is below the current price. The projected dividend yield of 3.5% is not sufficient to offset expected capital loss the NCB Financial brokerage arm says.
Scotiabank is a recommended sell by NCBCM
Stocks that are recommended as holds are Carreras based on the justified P/E and Dividend Discount Model resulted in valuation for Carreras up to $113.91 per share. Kingston Wharves forward price is $29.24, close to existing market price and Sagicor Group with fair value estimate of $34.21.
Ratings Definitions| BUY: The company has sound or improving fundamentals that should allow it to outperform the broader market over the next 12 months. The risk factors to achieving price targets are minimal.
HOLD: We believe the stock is fairly valued at the current price. The company may have issues affecting fundamentals that could take some time to resolve. The risk factors to achieving price targets are moderate. Some volatility is expected.
SELL: The stock is overpriced relative to the soundness of the company’s fundamentals and long-term prospects or the stock is fully priced.
Berger investors rebuffing Ansa offer
Berger Paints traded at a high as $11.55 on Tuesday.
The main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange closed trading with 25 securities changed hands, with declining stocks just edging out advancing ones, while 3 stocks traded in the US dollar market.
The market closed with 9 stocks advancing and 11 declining based on the price the trade took place.
Some noted trades include Berger Paints that continues to trade above the price on $10.88 offered by Ansa Coatings to acquire the minority holdings. Investors continue to rebuff the offer by buying the stock at the close at $11 with 153,142 shares changing hands, up to $11.55 and a low of $10.85. The stock closed with a bid to buy 103,462 units at $11 and just 2,935 units offered at $11.70 and few shares offered close to this range.
Some other trades of note are Jamaica Producers 4 million unit trade with the price dropping nearly $1 and a $3.75 jump in the price of Seprod.
At the close of market activity, Barita Investments traded at $8.15, having lost 85 cents with 4,900 units, Cable and Wireless lost 3 cents to close at $1.05 with 18,708 shares, Caribbean Cement traded $2 lower to $28 with only 240 units, Carreras closed at record high of $11.50, gaining 25 cents with 223,703 shares trading, Grace Kennedy fell 99 cents and settled at $42.01 with 11,117 shares. Jamaica Broilers closed at $16.04, losing 86 cents with just 200 units, Jamaica Producers dropped 99 cents to $15.01 exchanging 4,075,641 shares, Jamaica Stock Exchange ended with a loss of 65 cents at $6.35 with 5,000 units, JMMB Group closed at $21 trading 14,000 shares. Kingston Properties closed at $7 with 598,296 shares changing hands, 
Kingston Wharves exchanged 1,500 units at $32, Mayberry Investments gained 20 cents, closing at $4.70 with 11,020 shares, NCB Financial Group traded 98 cents higher to $89.98 with 42,825 shares, 1834 Investments rose 10 cents and closed at $1.40 with 3,480 units. PanJam Investment gained $1.43, closing at $35.50 with 103,000 shares, Pulse Investments closed at $1.40, losing 30 cents with 58,680 shares trading, after the company released audited accounts showing lower profit in 2017 than in 2016, due mainly to the treatment of taxation. Sagicor Group closed with gains of 50 cents at $34.50 trading 8,700 shares, Sagicor Real Estate Fund closed at $11, after gaining 38 cents with 2,747 units, Salada Foods fell 50 cents, trading at $8 with 9,000 shares, Scotia Group closed $1 higher to $51 exchanging 147,026 shares, Seprod advanced $3.75 to $33 with 16,309 shares, Supreme Ventures closed 10 cents lower to $11 exchanging 145,884 shares. Productive Business Solution US ordinary share closed at 65 US cents trading 48,360 units, Proven Investments US ordinary share traded 27,635 units at 24 US cents, JMMB Group US 6% preference share exchanged 8,617 units at US$1.12, Jamaica Money Market Brokers 7.25% preference share closed at $2.50 with 650 units and JMMB Group 7.5% preference share lost 4 cents, closing at $1.15 with 100,000 units.
