Big run for Jamaican stocks coming

JSE Main market showing next major resistance around the 360,000 point level on the al Jamaica Index

The current state of the Jamaican stock market in one of contrast with the main market hitting 5 days of record close and with gains of 40 percent for the year to date and Junior Market that was up 31 percent in May is now up just 14 percent.
With stability present in the forex market for the Jamaican dollar, lower interest rates being paid on money market funds and with business confidence at record high levels, funds are now moving into the main market stocks with less interest being shown in the Junior Market.
Prices in the US dollar market have come off, after the index was up 63 percent at 268.73 points in February, up from 164.50 at the start of the year, but it is only up 12 percent now with the index at 184.86 points at the close of trading on Friday.

Jamaica Main market stocks itching to break out of channel that stretches back to 2014

The Junior Market was driven up by excessive buying that drove a number of the stocks to excessive valuations which the market has been correcting for, resulting in the sharp pull back from the all-time high, even then there are some that are still overvalued based on the average valuation of other stocks. The market still has several undervalued stocks but the focus on the bigger and more liquid main market is sucking some energy from the junior ones.
Based on estimated 2017 earnings, the average PE of the junior and main markets are just over 13 times earnings. The main market has more than half of the market trading below this level. Included in the list are Berger Paints with a PE of just 5, Caribbean Cement at 6, Jamaica Broilers 7, JMMB Group at 8, Grace Kennedy, NCB Financial and Sagicor Group at 10. The market has Jamaica Producers selling at 32 times 2017 earnings and Kingston Wharves at 27 times earnings with Kingston Properties at a rich 36 times and are clearly overvalued currently. Jamaica Stock Exchange and 138 Student Living at 22 are well ahead of the market average.

Junior Market under pressure, testing support around 2,900 points.

In the Junior Market Medical Disposables is priced at 6 times earnings, General Accident 6, Caribbean Producers 7, Stationery and Office Supplies, Caribbean Cream and Main Event at 10. Just under half of Junior Market stocks are trading blow the market average with about 25 percent well above the average.
Technical reading| The main market broke through major resistance for the second time since September at 290,000 points, that has its genesis in 1992 and connecting in 2005. The market faces some short term resistance around 300,000 points which should be broken through before long ahead of moving to the next sort term resistance around 360,000 points with 505,000 on the all Jamaica Index, the next big stop. The market has been trading in a distinct upward sloping channel from mid-2014 until now and seems set to break out and move higher.
The Junior Market chart is a big contrast to that of the main market.

Wigton Wind farm should list on the JSE main market in early 2017 with a large capitalization

While the latter is clearly heading higher with new highs being created, the Junior Market index is flashing negative signals. The market has formed a head and shoulder pattern which is a negative signal and the short term 45 days moving average has broken through both the medium term 200 days moving average and longer term moving averages. The market has broken through the channel that it has been trading in since late 2015. There appear to be support around the 2,900 points level but it could go down to 2,800 points where the next support is and it will left to be seen 2,900 points will be the floor ahead of third quarter results that could change the course of the movement.
With just over 2 months for the year to end investors should start to have an eye open for major factors that could make big differences to earnings in 2018 when making investment assessment now. Some of these are, more reduction in interest rates, continued strong foreign exchange growth, low inflation, increased construction activity, increased activity in the tourism sector and of course the potential for several new listings to come to market between now and then. IC Insider.com is aware of 8 such potential listings. The list include, Wigton Wind Farm, Jamaica Public Service as a result of Government of Jamaica’s planned sale of its 20 percent share in the company, Neveast Stationery, KIW International, a relatively new business in Montego Bay and a large manufacturing business, operating out of St Catherine.

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