A likely 6 percent growth in Jamaica’s economy in 2022 helped several Main Market stocks to overcome a sharp rise in interest rates to record gains between two and 82 percent after the Jamaica Stock Exchange started 2022 tentatively, 
with the market index gaining just two percent at its peak in mid-May after which the JSE Main Index dropped 10.2 percent for the year as Bank of Jamaica pushed interest rates higher during the year.
The first real sign of change in the market was after investors pushed Treasury bills rates to peak in April, seven months before the country’s central did. Stock prices started to slip in May, sending the market into reverse from then until year end, except for the last two weeks when there was a near 6 percent rebound.
Although the market declined for the year, the market ended the year with gains in 22 stocks, compared with 25 losers that fell from 3 percent to 40 percent, with Salada Foods being the worst performer, following a 38 percent fall in 
NCB Financial despite profit jumping sharply over that of 2021. The group recorded huge unrealised investment losses net of gains that wiped out the traditionally reported profit of $40 billion and left a deficit of $7.6 billion for the fiscal year that reduced shareholders’ equity from $161.5 billion to $149.5 billion, and resulted in continued dividend suspension, that may have encouraged more pressure on the stock than usual. Massy Holdings and VM Investments both declined by 35 percent for the year. 1834 Investments was the top stock resulting from its acquisition by Radio Jamaica, productive Business Solutions delivered gains of 64 percent, followed by Supreme Ventures, with 62 percent, both flowing from solid increases in profit for the period to September last year.
I Create another IPO coming soon
iCreate, a fairly new company that is involved in the creative industry is at an advanced stage of planning to raise funds publicly by way of an IPO, ahead of a potential listing on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange.
According to the company’s website, they are a Creative Institute, developed with the aim of filling the gap in skills training and development of creatives in Jamaica and the wider Caribbean. As a part of the creative eco-system, students are provided with a wide range of career opportunities in the Creative Economy, while being a key partner of the Advertising Industry, Film Production Companies, Animation and Gaming Companies, and Creative Outsourcing initiatives.
iCreate partners with the University of the Commonwealth Caribbean (UCC) as its Creative Training arm for courses offered in Jamaica and the Caribbean. iCreate is also partnered with the Digital Marketing Institute, to become the only institution in the Caribbean licensed to deliver their Digital Marketing Diploma programme.
The majority shares are currently owned by eMedia Interactive Group with Sagicor Investment said to hold 19 percent of the shares. The total of just over 123.5 million shares issued are issued currently that will go to 196 million if the IPO is fully taken up. The issue should be coming to the market place soon, by the end of the year or early in 2019. Tyrone Wilson is the Managing Director of the Group.
Also expected to list in 2019 are Wigton Wind Farm which will provide an investment more for income than growth. Also exploring listing are a paint company and a manufacturing company from central Jamaica.
MPC Caribbean Clean Energy next IPO
MPC Caribbean Clean Energy ltd is a Caribbean-based investment company set to be the next Initial Public offer in Jamaica and Trinidad simultaneously in early December.
The company is being sponsored by German based MPC Capital that is publicly listed since 2000 with a market capitalization of €158 million.
Trinidad regulators have already signed off on the prospectus while the draft prospectus is now going through the FSC in Jamaica, Martin Vogt, managing director of MPC capital advised IC insider.com.
The company was established in 2017 with the clear vision to invest in renewable energy projects in Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago and the wider Caribbean region through the MPC Caribbean Clean Energy Fund LLC. The listed company will be just an investing vehicle, with capital raised to be invested through MPC Caribbean Clean Energy Fund LLC, the entity investing directly in the projects.
The company will seek to raise at least US$50 million in the Jamaican and Trinidad markets with the IPO expected to debut around the first week in December. Brokers for the issue are JN Fund Managers.
The Company is registered in Barbados and was established by the clean energy investment specialist MPC Renewable Energies (MPC), a 100% subsidiary of the publicly listed German asset and investment manager MPC Capital, based on its extensive renewable energy experience worldwide and after research and analysis of the Caribbean market.
JPS has signed an agreement to purchase power from the company at 8.5 US cents per KWH.
The initial investment in Jamaica is “Paradise Park”, a 50 MW solar park in Westmoreland with a capital outlay of US$64 million. Once completed by May 2019, the solar park will be the largest photovoltaic power plant in the island. Vogt told IC Insider.com that they have a 20 years power supply contract with JPS. The company also has a 21 MW wind power plant in Costa Rica that has been in operations since 2015 and is profitable. Importantly, the Jamaican operation which is now being built out will have a rated capacity of 50 MWH.
The plan is to raise around US$200 million for investment in the region’s renewables. According Vogt, the Jamaican government is expected to open the market in 2019 for bids for 150 MW renewable supply and the company is planning to bid for another 50 MW to add to the Paradise Park operation. If the bid is successful the expansion will result in some amount of economy of scale in the operation.
The is likely to invest in the Wigton Wind Farm when that company goes public in the first quarter of 2019.
The rate of return for the company is expected to be north of 9 percent per annum which will make it attractive for investors looking for income but payment of dividend may not be more than once per year initially.
The stock issue is likely to be a relatively high income generator, rather than one for rapid stock price gains. shares will be sold in Jamaica in local dollars but in Trinidad they will be in US dollars.
News reaching IC Insider.com is that Fantana Pharmacy should be heading to the market soon, to raise around $500 million to help fund the new location on Waterloo Road in Kingston. A few others are said to be planned for next year with IC insider.com gathering that at least two are in the manufacturing sector and one in the financial sector.
Big run for Jamaican stocks coming
JSE Main market showing next major resistance around the 360,000 point level on the al Jamaica Index
The current state of the Jamaican stock market in one of contrast with the main market hitting 5 days of record close and with gains of 40 percent for the year to date and Junior Market that was up 31 percent in May is now up just 14 percent.
With stability present in the forex market for the Jamaican dollar, lower interest rates being paid on money market funds and with business confidence at record high levels, funds are now moving into the main market stocks with less interest being shown in the Junior Market.
Prices in the US dollar market have come off, after the index was up 63 percent at 268.73 points in February, up from 164.50 at the start of the year, but it is only up 12 percent now with the index at 184.86 points at the close of trading on Friday.
Jamaica Main market stocks itching to break out of channel that stretches back to 2014
The Junior Market was driven up by excessive buying that drove a number of the stocks to excessive valuations which the market has been correcting for, resulting in the sharp pull back from the all-time high, even then there are some that are still overvalued based on the average valuation of other stocks. The market still has several undervalued stocks but the focus on the bigger and more liquid main market is sucking some energy from the junior ones.
Based on estimated 2017 earnings, the average PE of the junior and main markets are just over 13 times earnings. The main market has more than half of the market trading below this level. Included in the list are Berger Paints with a PE of just 5, Caribbean Cement at 6, Jamaica Broilers 7, JMMB Group at 8, Grace Kennedy, NCB Financial and Sagicor Group at 10. The market has Jamaica Producers selling at 32 times 2017 earnings and Kingston Wharves at 27 times earnings with Kingston Properties at a rich 36 times and are clearly overvalued currently. Jamaica Stock Exchange and 138 Student Living at 22 are well ahead of the market average.
Junior Market under pressure, testing support around 2,900 points.
In the Junior Market Medical Disposables is priced at 6 times earnings, General Accident 6, Caribbean Producers 7, Stationery and Office Supplies, Caribbean Cream and Main Event at 10. Just under half of Junior Market stocks are trading blow the market average with about 25 percent well above the average.
Technical reading| The main market broke through major resistance for the second time since September at 290,000 points, that has its genesis in 1992 and connecting in 2005. The market faces some short term resistance around 300,000 points which should be broken through before long ahead of moving to the next sort term resistance around 360,000 points with 505,000 on the all Jamaica Index, the next big stop. The market has been trading in a distinct upward sloping channel from mid-2014 until now and seems set to break out and move higher.
The Junior Market chart is a big contrast to that of the main market.
Wigton Wind farm should list on the JSE main market in early 2017 with a large capitalization
While the latter is clearly heading higher with new highs being created, the Junior Market index is flashing negative signals. The market has formed a head and shoulder pattern which is a negative signal and the short term 45 days moving average has broken through both the medium term 200 days moving average and longer term moving averages. The market has broken through the channel that it has been trading in since late 2015. There appear to be support around the 2,900 points level but it could go down to 2,800 points where the next support is and it will left to be seen 2,900 points will be the floor ahead of third quarter results that could change the course of the movement.
With just over 2 months for the year to end investors should start to have an eye open for major factors that could make big differences to earnings in 2018 when making investment assessment now. Some of these are, more reduction in interest rates, continued strong foreign exchange growth, low inflation, increased construction activity, increased activity in the tourism sector and of course the potential for several new listings to come to market between now and then. IC Insider.com is aware of 8 such potential listings. The list include, Wigton Wind Farm, Jamaica Public Service as a result of Government of Jamaica’s planned sale of its 20 percent share in the company, Neveast Stationery, KIW International, a relatively new business in Montego Bay and a large manufacturing business, operating out of St Catherine.
