All Jamaica Stock exchange indices are down in then morning session on Wednesday except the US market that is flat.
At midday, the All Jamaican Composite Index dropped 1,540.15 points to at 343,864.88, the JSE Index fell 1,403.25 points to close at 313,299.72 and the Junior market dived 62.25 points to 3,088.65.
NCB Financial pulled back to $100.05 from Tuesday‘s closing price of $104, trading 29,803 shares, Caribbean Cement traded 7,300 shares up to $43.50 but pulled back to $41. Grace Kennedy traded 9,374 units up to a new high of $58 but pulled back to $57.
In the junior market Access Financial dropped from $46.50 to $36 trading 1,000 shares, Caribbean Producers jumped to a new high of $6.77 with 5.28 million units changing hands and General Accident traded 6,949 shares at a new 52 weeks’ high of $3.86 and now has no stock being offered for sale.
JSE markets fall in morning session
More record for JSE majors
The main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange cleared another mile stone after 15 minutes off the market opening on Tuesday with the All Jamaican Composite Index breaking through the 347,000 points mark.
The All Jamaican Composite Index jumped 2,501.62 points to at 347,551.83 and the JSE Index gained 2,279.26 points to close at 316,658.95. The Junior market was flat at 3,130.20 points but Medical Disposables traded at a new record high and headed to $6.68 having posted strong gains in its first quarter profit.
Helping in the record move on the day after the in the main market was closed for the Independence Holiday, is NCB Financial rising to $104 and Grace Kennedy at $57.
Investors shun Junior stocks for the oldsters
Black Panther mash up Palace bottom-line with a huge increase in profit that pushed to stock to no 1 for 2018 in the main market.
Investors shunned Junior Market stocks in 2018 for the older more established Main market stocks. At least that is what the data from the exchange is showing.
According to the Jamaica Stock Exchange report of trading to the end of July, volume and value on the main market is up while that on the junior market is well down on 2017 figures, even as the gains in the overall market shows juniors up 14 percent for the year to the end of July and 9 percent for the main market.
Junior Market volume is down year to July by a stunning 69 percent to 571 million units while the value fell 64 percent to $2.69 billion, less than half of the $6.6 billion traded for all of 2017. In contrast main market stocks traded 1.57 billion units, up 28.5 percent over 2017, for a total value of $32 billion, a strong 79.4 percent increase over 2017 and just shy of the $35.7 million traded for all of 2017.
The big winners for the year to July are, Palace with an increase of 154 percent, that was helped by the huge success of the Black Panther film that ran for several months, Pulse Investments up 67 percent, Kingston Wharves 60 percent, Jamaica Broilers 45 percent and Salada Foods 41 percent, as investors responded to improved profit. In the Junior Market, C2W Music and Derrimon Trading beat all others by huge margins, rising 233 percent after it announced a 10 to 1 stock split and 197 percent respectively. Express Catering climbed 86 percent, Stationery and Office Supplies up 65 percent and CAC 2000 up 51 percent.
The big losers in the main market are, Ciboney, having sold off the property it owned and paid out most of the proceeds as a dividend is down 68 percent, 138 Student Living fell 35 percent, Kingston Properties 31 percent, Wisynco Group 24 percent, Portland JSX 20 percent and in the Junior Market, GWEST Corporation down 36 percent, AMG Packaging 33 percent, tTech 23 percent, Knutsford Express 23 percent and Eppley 17 percent.
JSE trades at record high
The Jamaica Stock Exchange main market, trades at a new intraday high in the morning session on Monday and could be heading for another record close, if prices hold up substantially at the the end of trading.
Just before Mid-day the All Jamaican Composite Index climbed 1,552.05 points to 341,987.04 and the ;JSE Index rose 1,414.10 points to 311,588.81. the new record follows the record reached on last Friday. When the All Jamaican Composite Index climbed a strong 2,697.06 points to 341,378.20 and the JSE Index surged 2,457.33 points to 311,034.08 as NCB Financial jumped over $3 and ended the day at $100.01 following release of the group’s nine months results.
Currently, the Junior Market trades down, 15.08 points to 3,078.02.
All Jamaica nears record 341,000 points
NCB Financial climbed to $99.80 and Jamaica Broilers at a record $30 after just after 11 on Friday morning and pushed the main market to a new record high, surpassing the record reached last week Friday.
At minutes after 11, the All Jamaican Composite Index jumped 2,522.73 points to a record 340,798.92 surpassing the record of 340,315.50 reached last Friday with the JSE Index rising 2,298.49 points to 310,506.28 versus a record 310,065.85 last week. . The Junior Market added 23.66 points to trade at 3,064.01. the main market rose further to 340,893.72 points on the All Jamaican Composite Index and the JSE Index climbed to 310,624.04 at 11:15 am.
Carreras traded 612.643 shares at $9.20 and NCB Financial traded 274,733 units and now trades at $95. In the Junior Market C2W Music traded at a 52 weeks’ high of $1.70.
More records ahead for JSE
The main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange closed at a record high on first four days last week and shot to a record high during Friday’s trading but failed to hold above the 340,000 points it traded at, but the market is heading much higher.
The chart shows that 340,000 mark, as a resistance point, which may require sometime before it is fully taken out and the market moves higher. The chart is showing a pattern for 2018 that is close to that for 2017. The market having risen in January last year, went sideways with an upwards bias until July and then broke out of the channel went on to a peak in November. For 2018, the market has slowly moved upwards within a narrow channel but could break out as it did in 2018 with a bullishness seen over the past two weeks.
The market is being steered higher by a long term upward sloping support line as well the 45 and 125 day moving averages, lending support just below the index for the main market and the Junior Market is being steered by an upward rising long term support line.
New high for All Jamaica
NCB Financial climbed to $99 seconds after trading opened on Friday while trading just 460 shares and helped to push the main market into record territory.
The All Jamaican Composite Index climbed 1,082.40 points to a record 340,315.50 with the JSE Index rising 986.19 points to a record 310,065.85. in moderate early market activity. The Junior Market added just 6.55 points to trade at 3,061.45 as investors pushed IC Insider.com TOP 10 listed, Caribbean Cream share up to $6.10, in trading 39,035 shares at the opening, in response to a 59 percent increase in profit for the first quarter. Trading in the stock is suspended, with it having risen 24 percent from the close on Thursday.
If the market ends above Thursday closing level, it would result in five days of new record close for the market.
Mismatched stock values
Jamaica Producers former HQ
At the start of June, investors could pick up PanJam Investment shares at $45 and theoretically sell off the 31.56 percent holdings in Sagicor and own each PanJam share for just $1.
A few weeks on, the proposition is more expensive to achieve as it would cost $8 to achieve the same objective. Based on the lack supply of PanJam shares on the market it could become even more expensive in the weeks and months ahead.
While that anomaly exits, there is the wield situation in the local stock market where prices seem to be mismatched. Jamaica Producers (Producers) is selling a PE around of 25, well above the market average of 13 currently, but below Kingston Wharves (KWH) at 30. Jamaica Producers owns 50 percent of KWH with half of its market value being $33 billion. Producers is valued by the market at $19 billion well below its half of KWH. It would require a 74 percent price gain in Producers to equal the value of their holdings in KWH, assuming the latter remains around the current price of $46.55.
Kingston Wharves trades at 30 times 2018 earnings.
Another fascinating finding is that Junior Market listed Access Financial Services with market capitalization of $12.77 billion is almost twice the size of Mayberry Investments of just $7.8 billion. Mayberry formerly owned over 40 percent of Access before selling it off to Proven Investments.
Mismatching is also evident in the junior market with Cargo Handlers and Knutsford Express selling well above the market for more than a year, even after their prices have slowly declined over that period. Everything Fresh has now joined the group of highly valued stocks with PE in excess of 20 times 2018 earnings. With Treasury bill rates just under 2.5 percent and heading lower PE of 20 should now be common place, but when the market is selling well below then it raises some questions about how well investors are pricing stocks. A keen look at these high priced stocks with exception of KWH, shows that the prices have not gained in over a year with some have fallen, but others in the market have recorded strong gains. Some of these stocks seem poised to under perform the market for awhile, until time and increased earnings better align their values with the rest of the market.
2018 interest rate cut was big buy signal
Apartment complex in Kingston – Real estate values to benefit from low interest rates.
Declining interest rate is a huge buy signal for both stocks and real estate investments. If the decline in rates is expected to be prolonged then investors will swicth their investments to take advantage of opportunities elsewhere.
Last year this publication boldly advise readers that the drop in interest rates by the central bank was a huge buy signal for stocks and that investors should be piling into stocks and real estate. Some were skeptical, clearly unaware that there are really two major factors driving stock prices – interest rates and profits. Interest rates have fallen to the lowest levels on record, in Jamaica.
Many who consider the present values of stock to be ioverpriced not factoring the major cahnge the falling rates will have on valuations of both stocks and real estate. A few companies may overpriced currently, but not the vast majority. The incredibly low interest rates being enjoyed by many Jaamicans are not about to change substantially, any time soon. While the low rate of 1.7 percent on treasury bills reached in 2018 won’t last forever, it is expected that it will not go up too far from current levels of just over 2 percent, any time soon.
In May last year, Bank of Jamaica cut the overnight policy rate, by 25 basis points to 2.5 percent that along with a decline in short term Treasury bill rates at the same time.
IC Insider.com stated then, that the moves provided more ammunition for a big surge for Jamaican stocks. The piece went on to state that with a 15 percent fall in BOJ’s policy rate in 2018 so far, stocks are lagging behind, with an increase of just 6.6 percent for the Junior Market and 4 percent for the main market.
The fall in Treasury bill rates was far greater than the rise of the All Jamaica Composite Index, an indication of a lot more upside for stocks based on the downward movement of interest rates.
Investors seem then to be focusing more on profits in valuing stocks than on interest rates so far. That will change the article suggested. The fall in the overnight rate at that time, translated to a 9 percent rise in stock market prices, but rates seem likely to decline some more before settling off, providing more ammunition for greater gains in stock prices.
We stated that with the fall in interest rates, the PE of money is at the high end 40 times income and using corporate bond rates around 12 times, but the PE ratio should be more tied to Treasury Bill rates and that PE is now in 30 range but stocks are mostly in the low teens and below. IC Insider.com further stated that most investors did not appear to be paying much attention to the tsunami that was on the way that will see prices move sharply higher.
With just over five months of 2018 passing, investors have not only warmed to the fall in rates but many are not willing to part with their stocks. Late comers to the party will pay much higher prices than in May and June. Then the Junior Market was up 24 percent and the Main market 31.7 percent and rising. Technical reading of the market suggest that the Main market has another 25 percent run to make before probably cooling for a charge to 720,000 points on the All Jamaica Composite Index in 2019.
The fall in interest rates makes it cheaper to buy real estate with lower interest rates for each dollar borrowed. Additionally, investors will switch funds from fixed interest investments into stocks and real estate thus driving up their values.
Note that this is an updated version of an article posted last year after Bank of Jamaica cut their overnight policy rate.
JSE trading at new record of 335,379 points
The Jamaica Stock Exchange main market is currently trading in record territory with the all Jamaica Composite index having surpassed the 334,000 mark around mid day, moved to more than 335,000 points just ahead of the close.
The market having surpassed the 334,000 points for the first time around midday, moved even higher to trade at level 335,379.45 points with 15 minutes to go before the close with a rise of 5,429.21 points.
The All Jamaica Composite Index rose 4,212.92 points to 334,155.76 points just after midday while the JSE index rose to 3,838,45 points to 304,460.03 points, Scotia Group trading at $52.99 and JMMB Group at $28 were the two major contributors to the market rise. Wisynco Group trades at $9.80 and accounted for the largest block of shares with 5.356 million units of the stock traded.The AJI ended at a record closing high of 332,501.11 points on May 4, this year.
The Junior Market at the same time plunged 64.06 to 2,947.20.Iron Rock traded 4.24 million units in the Junior Market and Blue Power traded 538,182 units with the price falling to $28 from $the last traded price of $37.