Buy stocks before the explosion

Image courtesy of suphakit73/FreeDigitalPhotos.net

Image courtesy of suphakit73/FreeDigitalPhotos.net

Stocks in the main market are hardly moving in any direction currently with prices up one day and down another and with the all Jamaica index gaining just 6 percent to date. That is not the case in the junior market, as investors seek out what they see as undervalued stocks and in the process drove up these stocks 27 percent for the near nine months of the year.
Both markets have some appealing choices that offer investors a great deal of potential upside. Investors have been making big mistakes by ignoring these opportunities. The errors keep showing in junior market stocks where many wait until prices start to move before trying to buy, at which time the volumes dry up and prices have to move steeply for sellers to be induced to dispose of stocks. Recent cases in point are, ISP Finance, the stock was available under $3 but there were very few buyers, now there are many buyers with bids in the $6 region, a level at which there has been no stock offered for sale since it traded nearly 23,000 units at $6, earlier in September. Jetcon Corporation is another case, with the stock trading below the $3 level for a long time until recently, even as the profit of the company is running at almost twice the pace of 2015, now they are more investors interested at the higher prices at a time when the supply has evaporated. Caribbean Cream is yet another, with IC Insider pointing to strong increase in profits for a long time, now buyers are in at much higher prices but supply is limited. tTech is yet another example with the stock trading for a long time in the $4 region now there is virtually no supply as interest in the stocks grows.
KremiIceCreamConesFREE280x150While some investors focus on trailing quarterly earnings as the basis for valuing stocks, they tend to miss out on companies with explosive growth in profits. There is also the tendency to ignore one off time items. The case of Caribbean Cement is an excellent one. A Brokerage house has the earnings at just over $2 for 2016, but the ongoing earnings are likely to be in the $5.50 region for 2016 and this is what they should be using to value the company. Investors seem to miss the main point. The company incurred cost for reducing labour which will show up as lower operating cost in future periods, but investors don’t seem to appreciate that fact, added to what now appears to be an economy that is growing and could grow even more making Cement, a huge buy. The same can be said for National Commercial Bank and Scotia Group that are having a great 2016.
An indication of where values could reach based on this year’s earnings can be gleaned from three stocks selling at PE ratios that are 16 to 17.5 times this year’s earnings with 11 out of the 29 junior listings having a PE of 10 times or more with, an average of 13.5. The average of the junior market is now at 10 times 2016 earnings with several stocks selling below. In the main market the top 11 stocks average PE is just over 15 with the overall average for the market at 9.
Based on close of the market on Friday the stocks to watch in the coming week are AMG Packaging that fell back sharply in the past week and is on IC Insiders top 5 junior market buys, Blue Power with limited supply. Cargo Handlers still in demand with the announcement of the 10 to 1 stock split and with the bid at $87.05 versus the last sale of $86.10. Caribbean Cream with limited supply and increased buying, Honey Bun with good demand and declining supply, but the price could be heavy with a PE of 17. The 2016 fiscal year ends this month, so investors may want to focus on the 2017 numbers as the main reason for buying. ISP Finance with no supply but with bid at $6.50 compared to last sale of $6 and with the success of the $150 million bond issue, could move if some supply appear.
Scotiabank with profit up 47% for the July quarter the stock could be very active this week.

Scotiabank with profit up 47% for the July quarter the stock could be very active this week.

Jetcon Corporation has seen increased demand come to buy with the stocks still in the IC Insider’s top 5 list. Knutsford Express, Lasco Financial, Medical Disposables, Paramount Trading with no stock on offer and tTech could all make positive moves. Keep an eye on Key Insurance that is set to fall with disappointing interim results reported recently, there is no bid to buy the stock which is offered for sale at $2.38.
Main market activity has been fluid, there are no indications from Friday’s trading, that there will be much change. Investors should keep an eye on Barita Investments, IC Insider’s Top stock in the main market, with bids at $3.51 at the close on Friday, compared with a last sale price of $3.25. There are currently only 5 offers on the board, amounting to 70,000 units and Scotia Group that is set to report earnings for 2016 in the region of $4 per share, after reporting a 47 percent jump in the July quarter. Investors may want to keep an eye out for Cable & Wireless that could well report decent profit for the 12 months to March next year. Note the company’s year end is set to change to December.

10 Stocks to avoid now

Junior market stocks gained 27 percent for the year to date but those in the main market have gone up just 6 percent over the same time. Seven stocks in the junior market have more than doubled two gained just over 90 percent and one over 80 percent.
Btt 5 jm-mm -18-9-16In contrast the main market highest gain is at 93 percent followed by 64 percent. The above data points to the need for selective investment decision making to get the best out of investing in the stock market. Last week IC Insider started a list of top 5 stocks in the main and junior market. This week we introduce a list of the top 5 stocks to avoid at this time as some seems fully valued based on appreciation recently or in some cases the companies are not performing well. The list will be reviewed weekly and updates published. Even these stocks appreciate in the medium term they are likely to lag gains in the overall market.

Derrimon in Paramount out – Top 5

AMG Packaging is IC Insider's top junior market stock for growth in the next 12 months.

AMG Packaging is IC Insider’s top junior market stock for growth in the next 12 months.

Paramount Trading jumped 25 percent from $14 to $17.50 for the week ending September 16, pushing it out of the IC Insider Top 5 junior market stocks, allowing another trading company, Derrimon Trading, to enter the list in its place.
Paramount Trading price movement is directly related to limited supply of the stock. There are good prospects for increased earnings to flow from expansion into the processing of lubricants, for the local market. Production is expected to get on the way in the first quarter of 2017. With a PE ratio of 7.6 times 2017 projected earnings, the stock remains attractive. With the limited supply, the stock seems a prime candidate for a stock split later this year.
Jetcon Corporation seems set to move out of the top 5 by the end of the week, if the trend of increased demand and limited supply continues. During the past week, the stock gained 24 percent based on the closing bids that were higher than the last sale price. AMG Packaging fell sharply in the week and has pushed the stock to top of the list, while Medical Disposables has moved down to 3 due to a revision downwards of earnings to 60 cents per share and an increase in the stock price.
Top 5 jm-mm -18-9-16rDerrimon enters as number 4 but the company is highly leveraged but expanding. Derrimon Trading reported slightly increased profit of $32.2 million or 12 cents per share up from $30.6 million in the June quarter with profit of $58.5 million compared to $51.2 million for the six months to June, with 3.5 percent growth is sales in the June quarter and 6 percent for the six months year over year. Other income grew but the company’s share of associated profit fell in both periods, while costs were held tightly.
Barita Investments is the only stock in the top 5 main market list, to show any major change, with the bid moving up to $3.51 at the close of the week and seeming set to trade in the $4 region sooner than later, with limited supply on the offer.

10 JSE stocks rise 10 fall -Friday

Grace Kennedy traded nearly 28M shares on Friday.

Grace Kennedy traded nearly 28M shares on Friday.

Grace Kennedy traded nearly 28 million shares valued at $1,162,148,683 to be the dominant trade for the day on the Jamaican stock market. Scotia Group traded early in the morning session at $32.40 that helped push the indices over 3,000 points at one stage but the stock fell back and helped to put the main indices into negative territory more than 1,000 points, at the close.
Trading led to the prices of 10 securities gaining out of a total of 37 that traded, with 10 declining in the overall market, including 5 stocks rising and 2 falling, in the junior market.
At the close of the market to 56,335,591 units valued at $1,576,979,024, changed hands, compared to the 2,177,808 units valued at $15,988,922 changing hands on Friday. The junior market accounted for 4,977,327 units valued at $32,514,713 of the total traded on Friday.
ICI JSE sum 16-09-16At the close of trading, the JSE Market Index dived 1,017.74 points to end at 159,249.07. The all Jamaica Composite Index dropped 1,138.18 points to close at 176,930.47 and the JSE combined index sank 749.64 points, to end at 171,281.38.
At the close, IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading showed 14 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 3 with lower offers.
In market activity, investors picked up 2,041,685 units of Cable & Wireless, the price gained 2 cents in closing at 80 cents, Caribbean Cement fell by $1 to close at $26 with 992,947 units changing hands, Carreras traded 40,840 shares and lost 52 cents to close at $65.50, Grace Kennedy gained $1.55, with 27,892,196 shares changing hands at $43. Jamaica Broilers had 8,030,326 shares changing hands and fell 5 cents to end at $14.50, Jamaica Producers ended unchanged at $8.40 with 509,740 units trading, Jamaica Stock Exchange fell by 50 cents to end at $26.50 while trading 10,200 shares, JMMB Group traded 4,116,935 units and lost 20 cents to $9.80. Kingston Wharves traded 1,800 shares to close at $17.55, Mayberry Investments ended with 2,292,911 shares changing hands, to close at $3.50, ICI JSE fn qt 16-09-16 National Commercial Bank had 3,037,523 shares trading and closed with a loss of 25 cents at $40, Pan Jamaican Investments lost 94 cents and closed at $23.51 after trading 326,021 shares. Pulse Investments traded 37,200 shares with a rise of 35 cents to close at $4, Radio Jamaica closed at $1.40 after 110,101 shares changed hands, Sagicor Group traded 358,270 shares while gaining 53 cents to close at $23.10. Sagicor Real Estate Fund traded 4,590 shares to close with a fall of 3 cents at $10.12, Scotia Group dropped $1.80 to close at $30.71 with 1,238,805 shares changing hands. Seprod gained 81 cents to close at $20.51 with 12,000 shares trading and Proven Investments gained 0.95 cent with 297,060 units changing hands to close at 19.99 US cents.

Inflation set to fall below 2% for 2016

Fuel prices at the pumps in May 2015.

Fuel prices at the pumps in May 2015.

The inflation rate to August based on the consumer price index rose by 0.4 percent over July 2016, bringing the year to date inflation to 0.3 percent. With just 4 more months to go for the completion of the year and with the price of oil on the world market declining, Jamaica seems set to enjoy one of the lowest inflation for 2016, in decades.
The calendar year-to-date inflation is only 0.3 percent, while the year over year movement is 1.8 percent. IC Insider is forecasting the full year inflation to end just below 1.5 percent, barring major negative developments. If the forecast is closely achieved, it would be the lowest rate in four and a half decades and will better the 3.66 percent achieved in 2015, the previous lowest rate over the same period. The rate for 2016 would be well below the 4.2 percent forecast by the IMF for the calendar year and the Bank of Jamaica the fiscal year forecast to March 2017 with a target of 4.5 percent to 6.5 percent.
JPSAccording to Statin, inflation for August was driven mainly by the division ‘Housing, Water, Electricity Gas and Other Fuels’ which recorded the highest movement, 1.8 percent, primarily due to the increase in rates for electricity and water. The group ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division increased by 0.4 percent and was influenced by the upward movement in the group ‘Vegetables and Starchy Foods’ up by 0.9 percent. The increases were partially offset by a fall in ‘Transport’ by 0.2 percent, due to lower petrol prices on the local market for the month of August.
The low level of inflation comes against the back ground of a 5 percent devaluation of the Jamaican dollar versus the US dollar and a tax package earlier in the year that saw an increase in the price of petroleum as well as a fiscal deficit that is close to zero and well below forecast.

Stunning 47% increased Scotia profit

Scotia hq 25 9-14 Scotia Group reported a stunning in net earnings jumping 47 percent for the third quarter to $3.3 billion over the 2015 July quarter. For the nine months, net earnings jumped 36.7 percent to $8.2 billion. Total comprehensive income for shareholders of the group ended at $9.3 billion for the nine months ended July 2016 up 10.5 percent from $8.8 billion.
For the third quarter, total comprehensive income of declined from $4.4 billion to $3.66 billion.
The results translate to earnings per share of $1.07 cents in the July quarter and $2.64 for the nine months, with full year’s earnings set to end around $3.90 and would put the PE at 7.8 versus an average of 9 based on estimated 2016 earnings for the main market valuation.
President and CEO of the banking group, Jackie Sharp, in a report to shareholders, commenting on the performance stated, “We continue to show strong performance this year, resulting from the execution of our strategic initiatives to grow revenues and reduce operating costs. All business lines showed good volume growth year over year, as we continued to meet our customer’s diverse needs. Our loan portfolio, after allowance for impairment losses, grew by $15.2 billion or 10.2 percent year over year. Customer Deposits also increased by $42.4 billion or 20.8 percent year over year. Funds under management in our wealth business grew by $15.9 billion or 14.9 percent year over year.”

Jackie Sharp - CEO Scotia Group

Jackie Sharp – CEO Scotia Group

“Total revenues excluding impairment losses on loans for the nine months ended July 2016 was $28.8 billion, representing an increase of $2.46 billion above prior year. The positive movement was achieved through increased volumes and improved non-interest revenue, which cushioned the impact of reduced margins. Net interest income after impairment losses for the period was $17.6 billion, $670 million above the same period in 2015. This was due to an increase in net interest income of $745 million, resulting from growth in loan volumes, particularly our Retail loans, Residential Mortgages and Small Business portfolios, coupled with lower levels of wholesale funding. Impairment losses on loans increased by $75 million when compared with the same period last year.
Other revenue for the nine months ended July 2016 amounted to $10 billion, an increase of $1.7 billion or 20.6 percent compared to the same period last year. This was due to growth in net fee and commission income from increased transaction volumes on our deposit and payment services, credit card and merchant service business segments, as well as higher foreign currency gains.”
Sharp went on the further state “Operating Expenses amounted to $15.6 billion over the nine months ended July 31, 2016, a decrease of $464 million or 2.9 percent compared to prior year. Salary related expenses declined by $400 million, which offset higher operating expenses of $276 million. There was also a decline in asset tax of $330 million.”
Loans, after allowance for impairment losses amounted to $163.9 billion as at the end of the 2016 quarter, while nonperforming loans totalled $4.4 billion, representing 2.7 percent of total gross loans down from 3.1 percent last year. Total customer liabilities represented by deposits, securities sold under repurchase agreements, and policyholders’ funds grew to $350 billion, an increase of $35.3 billion or 11.2 percent compared to July 2015. A significant portion of the growth was reflected in core deposits, which grew by 20.8 percent year over year the company stated.
The stock that traded at $30.50 on the Jamaica Stock Exchange is undervalued and importantly with strong growth in the third quarter and increased growth in the loan portfolio as well as a pickup in economic growth in Jamaica augurs well for strong growth in profits going forward. Note need to be taken of a possible fall in foreign exchange gains an area that grew sharply in the July quarter by 127 percent to $1.17 billion.
The group declared another dividend of 45 cents per share and seems set to pay total dividend for the fiscal year of $1.80 providing an attractive yield of 6 percent.

20 JSE stocks rose – Wednesday

Advancing stocks outnumber declining ones on Wednesday almost 2 to 1.

Advancing stocks outnumber declining ones on Wednesday almost 2 to 1.

Jamaican main market stocks, slipped on a day when the number of securities rose close to record levels, for the overall market on Wednesday. Trading led to the prices of 20 securities gaining out of a total of 46 that traded, with 13 declining in the overall market, including 6 stocks rising and 7 falling, in the junior market.
At the close of the market to 6,452,961 units valued at $39,142,493, changed hands, compared to the 3,862,389 units valued at $14,970,110 changing hands on Tuesday. The junior market accounted for 3,294,451 units valued at $15,960,574 of the total traded on Wednesday.
At the close of trading, the JSE Market Index declined 230.01 points to end at 159,370.56. The all Jamaica Composite Index fell 257.23 points to close at 177,066.34 and the JSE combined index lost 129.39 points, to end at 171,162.18.
ICI JSE sum 14-09-16At the close, IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading showed 11 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 4 with lower offers, suggesting continued fluidity in price movements immediately ahead.
In market activity, Berger Paints traded 29,614 units and rose 6 cents to end at $5.05, investors picked up just 255,635 units of Cable & Wireless, the price rose 1 cent in closing at 80 cents, Caribbean Cement traded 19,195 shares to close with a gain of 59 cents at $26.59. Carreras traded 6,001 shares and fell 42 cents to close at $65.60, Investors traded 51,984 shares of 1834 Investments to close with a loss of 1 cent at $1.24, Grace Kennedy ended at $41.45, with 5,982 shares changing hand, Jamaica Broilers lost 20 cents with 91,362 shares changing hands, to end at $14.55. Jamaica Producers ended at $8.50 with 34,510 units trading, Jamaica Stock Exchange ended at $26.50 while trading 5,000 shares, JMMB Group traded 24,877 units and fell 10 cents to $9.90. Kingston Wharves fell $1.20 in trading 1,032 shares to close at $16.20, Mayberry Investments ended with 535,795 shares trading at $3.50, National Commercial Bank had 7,738 units changing hands, to close with a gain of $1.15 at $40.25, trading in shares of 138 Student Living, ended with 641,007 units changing hands, to gain 20 cents at the close at $4.70. Pan Jamaican Investments gained 40 cents and closed at $24.40 after trading 123,656 shares, ICI JSE fn qt 14-09-16Radio Jamaica closed at $1.40 after 5,000 shares changed hands, Sagicor Group traded 44,896 shares while rising 50 cents to close at $23.10, Sagicor Real Estate Fund traded 16,000 shares to close with a gain of 20 cents at $10.35. Scotia Group closed with a gain of 50 cents at $30.50 with 112,598 shares changing hands, Scotia Investments had 196,976 units changing hands at $26, Seprod gained 1 cent to close at $19.51 with 5,000 shares trading, Supreme Ventures dipped 23 cents with 57,000 units changing hands to close at $4.75. JMMB Group 7.50% preference share rose 1 cent in trading 377,528 units to close at $1.09 and Jamaica Money Market Brokers 7.50% preference share closed with 500,000 units changing hands for a 1 cent rise to $2.09.

19 JSE stocks rose on Tuesday

Exchange place Jamaican stocks recovered some of the losses of the past two trading days with all three main market indices rising over 1,270 points when the market closed on Tuesday with the advance declining ratio be positive close two to one. The volume of stocks trading more than doubled, the volume traded on Monday, as the volume in Cable & Wireless climbed 230 percent to 2.1 million.
At the close of the market to 3,862,389 units valued at $14,970,110, compared to the 1,421,290 units valued at $14,318,294 changing hands on Monday. The junior market accounted for 531,125 units valued at $2,288,358 of the total traded on Tuesday.
At the close of trading, the JSE Market Index jumped 1,531.08 points to end at 159,600.57. The all Jamaica Composite Index surged 1,712.27 points to close at 177,323.57 and the JSE combined index climbed 1,272.91 points, to end at 171,291.57.
ICI JSE sum 13-09-16At the close, the prices of 19 securities gained out of a total of 33 that traded, with 11 declining in the overall market, including 7 stocks rising and 2 falling, in the junior market.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading showed 13 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 8 with lower offers, suggesting continued fluidity in price movements ahead.
In market activity, Berger Paints traded 19,410 units and lost 1 cent to end at $4.99, investors picked up 2,134,925 units of Cable & Wireless gained 4 cents in closing at 79 cents as the stock gained some support at these lower levels. Caribbean Cement traded 62,686 shares to close with a gain of 40 cents at $26, Carreras traded 2,955 shares and gained 2 cents to close at $66.02, Investors traded 74,479 shares of 1834 Investments to close 15 cents higher at $1.25, Grace Kennedy rose 15 cents and ended at $41.45, with 37,527 shares changing hands. Jamaica Broilers rose 23 cents with 121,227 shares changing hands, to end at $14.75. Jamaica Producers ended with a loss of 9 cents at $8.50 with 16,259 units trading, JMMB Group traded 15,188 units and rose 15 cents to $10. Kingston Wharves gained 40 cents in trading 44,675 shares to close at $17.40, National Commercial Bank had 22,790 units changing hands to close with a loss of $1 at $39, Pan Jamaican Investments fell 50 cents and closed at $24 after trading 40,560 shares.ICI JSE fn qt 13-09-16 Portland JSX closed at $11 with 15,450 shares changing hands, Radio Jamaica lost 2 cents to close at $1.40 after 84,764 shares changed hands, Sagicor Group traded 24,100 shares while rising 10 cents to close at $22.60, Sagicor Real Estate Fund traded 12,524 shares to close with a loss of 5 at $10.15. Scotia Group closed at $30 with 26,885 shares changing hands, Scotia Investments climbed 50 cents with 4,280 units changing hands at $26, Supreme Ventures gained 22 cents with 2,000 units changing hands to close at $4.98, Proven Investments traded 3,125 units to close at 19 US cents and JMMB Group 7.50% preference share lost 2 cents in trading 563,355 units to close at $1.08.

Another US$10 million more on Monday

US$ 100 Trading in Jamaica’s foreign exchange market saw another day when more purchases of the all foreign exchange currencies exceeded sales, with the net intake on Monday, being US$10 million just above the net in take on Friday of just a tad below US$10 million and with the net US dollar currency intake being US$9 million the same as on Friday.
Net inflows for September to date amounts to US$55.7 million. Unlike Friday when the positive net inflows did not stop the rate for selling the US dollar from rising, in Monday’s trading, the local dollar gained against the US dollar.
At the end of trading, dealers bought US$40,557,663 and sold only US$30,162,776 compared to US$37,477,625 purchased and US$27,548,721 sold on Friday, of all currencies.
In US dollar trading, dealers bought US$36,851,384 compared to US$34,686,488 on Friday. The ICI Fx sum 12-09-16buying rate for the US dollar declined 22 cents to close at $126.87. A total of US$27,926,335 was sold versus just US$25,787,049 on Friday, with the selling rate fell 7 cents to end at $127.65. The Canadian dollar buying rate declined by 66 cents to $95.29, with dealers buying C$2,122,844 and selling C$1,762,850 at an average rate that rose by 42 cents to $98.27. The average rate for buying the British Pound dropped 18 cents to $165.42 for the purchase of £1,495,683 while only £562,174 was sold with the rate rising 72 cents to end at $169.27.
At the end of trading, the selling rate for the Euro, fell 26 cents to close at J$144.62 from Friday’s rate, according to data from Bank of Jamaica, dealers purchased the European common currency at J$137.67 for a fall of $2.16 from the rate on Friday. The US dollar equivalent of other currencies traded amounts to US$161,845 being bought, while US$133,875, was sold.
ICI Fx h&l 12-09-16Highs & Lows| Notable changes to the highest and lowest traded rates, for the Jamaican dollar in the foreign exchange market on Monday, include a rise of $1.09 in the highest buying rate for the Canadian Dollar to end at $99.50, a fall in the highest selling rate of 92 cents to settle at $102.11, a fall in the lowest selling rate of $1.80 to end at $93. Trading in the British Pound resulted in a fall of 70 cents in the highest buying rate to close at $170.70, a dive of $1.08 in the highest selling rate to $177.12 and a leap of $43.54 in the lowest selling rate to $161.

The top 5 major & junior stocks

Barita is the top IC Insider's stock for growth over the next 12 months in the main market.

Barita is the top IC Insider’s stock for growth over the next 12 months in the main market.

Barita Investments looks like the stock to deliver the best returns in the main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange and Medical Disposables the stock to deliver the best returns in the medium term, in the junior market, according to data compiled by IC Insider.com.
IC Insider starts a new feature that highlights the top 5 stocks IC Insider’s selection for gains over the next several months based on the latest earnings forecast for the current fiscal year for each company.Investors should bear in mind that companies with September year ends will have a head start on companies with later ending period as the earlier year end will result in two sets of results between now and early 2017, thus giving investors an early look into what 2017 earnings will look like. The stocks in the list may surprise many but detailed look at their financials paint a far better picture than the stock prices may currently be telling. These stocks are selling well below the market average and even more so against their potential. Top 5 jm-mm -09-9-16The two stocks at the top of both listing may surprise many, but they should not. In the case of Medical Disposables revenues are growing close to 50 percent increase as new products are added, this growth is expected to boost gross profit at levels that should out pace increase in cost. Barita Investments is undergoing change and this has driven up fee income sharply which is replacing interest income formerly generated form the repo business. Barita has built up a large pool of unrealized gain on investments which can be released to profit for 2016.
The list is likely to be updated on a weekly basis which is likely to see stocks being added or removed on an ongoing basis.