Inflation plunges in Jamaica

February 17, 2026 by
Inflation plunged 0.8 percent, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica reported for January 2026, in the process confounding forecasts for higher inflation well into 2026. The decline coincides with a seasonal pattern of low to negative inflation for the first four months of the year.  

Food category was main contributor to January’s deflation.

According to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages division had a decline of 2.6 percent in the index.
Point-to-point inflation rate (January 2025 – January 2026) was 3.9 percent and back below the Central Bank’s target of 4-6 percent, before Hurricane Melissa blew it briefly off course.

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Jamaica’s inflation cools

January 17, 2026 by
Jamaica experienced a dramatic inflation spike in late 2025, driven primarily by the effects of Hurricane Melissa on reducing agricultural production and increasing prices. The Consumer Price Index rose by 2.4 percent, in November, with the pace slowing to 1.3 percent in December, as agricultural supplies slowly returned to more normal levels.

November’s 2.4 percent monthly rise was the highest since September 2013, with 2.8 percent and matched the August 2024 increase following Hurricane Beryl. Hurricane Melissa, which struck on October 28, severely disrupted agricultural production and infrastructure. Food prices surged 6.0 percent in November, with vegetables, tubers, and plantains jumping 19.1 percent, while fruits and nuts increased 8.8 percent. Inflation in this category, in December climbed at a much slower pace of 2.1 percent, with vegetables, tubers, and plantains jumping 4.5 percent, while fruits and nuts increased 5.6 percent.

By year-end, point-to-point inflation reached 4.5 percent, with food inflation accelerating to 7.1 percent year-over-year. Housing and utility costs also contributed, rising 3.5 percent annually. Despite these pressures, inflation climbed from 2.9 percent in October to 4.3 percent in November and 4.5 percent in December, remaining well within the central bank’s target range of 4-6 percent.

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Jamaica’s inflation cools, signals lower interest rates

August 20, 2025 by
Inflation in Jamaica cooled in July, 0.30 percent, well above the 0.3 negative inflation in June and brings the last twelve months’ inflation rate to 3.3 percent, well below the Bank of Jamaica’s target of four to six percent, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) reported in its latest bulletin on price movements in the country.

According to Statin, the main contributor to the increase was a 0.9 percent rise in the index for the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages division, with the Food group rising by 0.9 percent, while the index for the Non-Alcoholic Beverages group increased by 0.4 percent.
“The increase in food was largely due to a 2.9 percent rise in the index for the class Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses. Prices for cabbage, sweet pepper, tomato and yam increased, however, this was partly offset by lower prices for carrot, plantain and sweet potato,” Statin reported. The transport sector also contributed to the increase. The overall increase was moderated by a 0.8 percent decline in the index for the Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels division.

The moderation and the continued fall in point to point inflation for two consecutive months should encourage the Bank of Jamaica to cut the Overnight interest rate, sooner than later.

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Jamaica’s inflation jumps in May

June 17, 2024 by

Inflation in Jamaica for May 2024 was 0.5 percent, down from 0.6 percent in May 2023 according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) computed All Jamaica Consumer Price Index. The five months of deflation for 2024 comes in at negative 1.3 percent.
Statin also stated the upward movement was due mainly by a 1.1 percent rise in the index for the heaviest weighted division of Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages.
The point to point inflation fell marginally over the past 12 months to 5.2 percent, down from 5.3 percent in April and roughly at the mid-point of the target range of four to 6 percent set by the government of Jamaica for the country’s central bank to attain.
Importantly, Statin said that Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (3.9 percent), ‘Transport’ (9.7 percent) and ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (3.8 percent) were the major contributor to inflation in the past 12 months.

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Negative inflation in February

March 17, 2024 by

Point-to-point inflation in Jamaica has bent back close to the Bank of Jamaica’s target of 4-6 percent based on the February 2024 data released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, with a reading of 6.2 percent following monthly inflation plunging by 0.6 percent for the month and follows a fall of 0.10 percent in January.
The decline was influenced by the decreases in the index for the divisions ‘Food and Non Alcoholic Beverages’ (1.1 percent) and ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (1.6 percent).

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Cooling inflation demands lower interest rates

November 16, 2023 by

Inflation cooled considerably over the past year in Jamaica, to 5.1 percent to October 2023, data just released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) shows. The rate is down from 5.9 percent for the period this year to September 2023, and down from 9.9 percent for the October 2022 period.
Statin also stated that inflation for October came in at points 0.8 percent, sharply down from the same period last year at 1.5 percent. October’s inflation is worse than the 0.5 percent that occurred in September this year. But spike in oil prices would have played a big role in October inflation. The fall in oil price to the low $70 levels currently, is signalling that inflation in November is likely going to be moderate with the year to date inflation then heading for the low 4 percent range.
According to the report, inflation in October was driven primarily by the upward movement in the division of ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’. The increase in the division’s index was mainly attributed to higher rates for electricity, water and sewage. In addition, ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ also contributed to the increase.
Point to point inflation is now well within the Bank of Jamaica’s mandated target range of 4-6 percent, but the fiscal year numbers which are the basis for their target could be much higher than the figure above. Regardless the central bank runs the risk of driving the economy into recession if they are not careful and move to ease interest rates fast.
Recent data from a large number of listed companies show sluggish revenues growth and lower profit for the September quarter compared with 2022 as well as the first half of 2023, added to this, tourist arrivals slowed considerably in recent months compared to the earlier part of the year and that industry has been the major driver of economic activity this year and added to that the construction sector has been in decline and could worsen.

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Inflation rate drops in April

May 15, 2023 by

Inflation has finally returned to the band mandated by the Bank of Jamaica of 4 to 6 percent per annum, with the year over year rate now at 5.8 according to data released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin.) and is down from 6.2 percent in March.
The dip in the point to point inflation below 6 percent was occasioned by a fall in the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 0.4 percent for April 2023 and was influenced mainly by a 4.2 percent fall in the index for the division ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’. The movement in the division’s index was due to a reduction in the rates for electricity, which resulted in a 12.5 percent fall in the index for the group. There was also a decline in the index for the ‘Transport’ division, which moved down by 0.1 percent due mainly to reduced petrol and air travel costs. The inflation rate was, however, tempered by a 0.6 percent increase in the index for the heaviest weighted division ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages.
The inflation rate since November last year is now negative.

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Interest rates held at 7% for Jamaica

March 30, 2023 by

Interest rates set by the Bank of Jamaica held at 7 percent for the overnight deposits, even as inflation continues to fall rapidly in the country and now running at an average of 0.20 percent per month or 2.4 percent annualised since November last year. The monetary Policy Committee determined the decision at meetings held this week.  
According to the country’s central bank, “Inflation continued to ease, consistent with Bank of Jamaica’s monetary policy and international developments. Jamaica’s inflation rate to February 2023 of 7.8 percent was below the rate of 8.1 percent at January 2023. The February outturn was the lowest rate since December 2021.”
The key external drivers of headline inflation, such as grains, fuel and shipping prices, continued to decline, broadly in line with the Bank’s expectations. In addition, inflation expectations continued to track.
Core inflation (excluding food and fuel prices from the Consumer Price Index) at February 2023 also decelerated to 6.6 percent from 7.1 percent at January 2023 and is projected to fall further as monetary policy remains tight.
Annual inflation is projected to continue to fall to the Bank’s inflation target range of 4 to 6 percent by the December 2023 quarter. One-off regulated price adjustments may, however, result in a temporary uptick in inflation.
Notwithstanding positive developments in inflation, “the MPC noted that the risks to the inflation outlook remain elevated. In a context where the domestic economy continues to grow, labour market shortages carry the potential for future wage adjustments that can put upward pressure on inflation.

BOJ holds overnight rate.

Higher inflation could also result from a worsening in supply chain conditions and higher commodity prices if there are further geo-political disruptions. Among the factors that could lead to lower-than-projected inflation, weaker-than-expected global growth could negatively affect domestic demand, and some projected adjustments to regulated prices may not materialise.”
“Therefore, to continue underpinning inflation returning to the target range and to underwrite continued stability in the foreign exchange market, the MPC unanimously agreed to hold the policy interest rate at 7 percent, to maintain tight Jamaican dollar liquidity in the money market and to continue fostering relative stability in the foreign exchange market. The Bank’s liquidity management strategy incorporates the impact of the one percentage point increase in the domestic and the foreign currency Cash Reserve Requirements applicable to DTIs, effective the beginning of April 2023.”

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Inflation moderating fast in Jamaica

March 17, 2023 by

Inflation in Jamaica continues to moderate according to the latest report on the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index released this week by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) showing that the point-to-point inflation rate as of February 2023 was 7.8 percent, this compares with 8.1 percent reported to January, this year.
The rate of inflation over the first two months of the year is 0.2 percent, in line with the average for the last four months and is now running at 45 percent below the average of 0.37 percent for the four months to February last year. Factors that could lower the pace, even more, are the recent revaluation of the Jamaica dollar and prices for some goods that are declining as new inventory items cost falls compared to the stock of goods in 2022 and most importantly the recent fall in the price of oil.
The CPI increased by 0.5 percent for February 2023 the release stated, up from a modest decline in January. The latest “increase was mainly influenced by a 2.7 percent increase in the index for the division Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels. The increase in the index for the division Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels was impacted by higher electricity rates which resulted in a 7.4 percent rise in the index for the group Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels. There was a negligible decline in the heavily weighted Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages division as prices continued to fall for items within the class Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses, by 2.4 percent. This was however at a slower rate when compared to the (-5.8%) that was recorded for the previous month, January 2023”.

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Inflation plunges again in Jamaica

February 15, 2023 by

Inflation in January this year plunged a healthy 0.6 percent in Jamaica, bringing the point-to-point inflation to 8.1 percent and the fiscal year to date inflation to 5.6 percent, putting it on track to meet the 4-6 percent inflation rate Bank of Jamaica is targeting.
The decline in January is mainly due to a 2.4 percent decline in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels and a 0.9 percent fall in Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, while Restaurants and Accommodation Services rose 1.4 percent.

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