Many more stocks to watch now

NCB had a good 2018 fiscal year with strong profit gains that boosted interest in the stock.

There was another big insider trade, in NCB Financial Group shares following last weeks’ big trade valued at $650 million.
Jamaica’s largest financial institution, advised the Jamaica Stock Exchange that a connected party sold 2,768,165 of the group’s shares and three directors and a senior manager purchased a total of 2,836,672 shares between November 23 and 26. This development is the clearest signs that the immediate future is extremely bright for the group.
The local stock market is showing major shift in sentiment with the news that Scotia Group is selling off of its insurance arm to Sagicor Group. The announcement drove up the prices of Scotia Group, Sagicor Group and Pan Jamaican that traded at a new high on Wednesday. But NCB continued to scale new highs on each day for the week. NCB has little supply coming onto the market as demand continues to climb.
All the above stocks are now the watch list, but investors must keep watch on Barita Investments that has shot up to a record high of $23 with a bid at $24.01. There is some amount of public chatter about the performance of the company that has encouraged more interest in the stock. The company will benefit from several developments in the financial market, including the impact of the change in accounting policy that will result in gains or losses in investments whether realized or not going straight to the profit and loss account. With growth in the stock market Barita should benefit in two ways, increased value of the portfolio, for example, 48 million JSE shares owned increasing around $100 million in the December quarter so far but Barita is said to also own shares in NCB that has risen sharply in price for the quarter. The equity linked unit trust will garner more fee income based purely on the fact that the portfolio would have grown based on gains in stock price. The other financial stock to be watched is Key Insurance that has traded over 21 million shares so far with the stock having a bid of $4 to buy over 911,000 shares. The movement in the Key shares seems like the start of an aggressive stance an investor, watch developments in this one keenly. Seprod also seems poised to rise with early selling from the public offer now appearing to be abating.
Mayberry Jamaican Equities is yet another to watch as the local stock market moves higher over the next several weeks and it could drag it mother company Mayberry Investments with it.

Barita could spike higher this week

Barita last traded on the JSE as high as $20 on Friday.

The main market of the stock exchange ended the week at another record close with a number of individual stocks hitting new highs but this coming week could well be more challenging, investors have to bear in mind that the supplies for several stocks are very limited and could result in big price movements as happened last week.
Technical chart shows NCB Financial heading to $155 but it traded at new high of $134 during the past week which is not very far from the target of potential resistance. Whether it goes higher during the coming days is anyone’s guess but it is worth watching. Caribbean Cream moved up to $7.90 from $6.16 at the end of the previous week. The company posted better profit results in the August quarter but with less gains than in the first, as administrative cost rose to negate some of the top line growth. Those results may be unlikely to move the stock forward in the short term.
The Junior Market continues to inch forward as it appears that investors are waiting on results. They got Caribbean Cream and Paramount Trading at the end of week, but no major upward price movement is expected.

Caribbean Cream sales & profit slowed in Q2.

The indicators point to continued increased interest in the main market stocks with a number of them are high on the list to watch for this week with less indications that Junior Market stocks will move upwards in droves anytime soon. Stocks of interest this week are Grace Kennedy, Barita Investments with limited supply and technical indicators pointing to a price of $22.50 initially before going on to $27.50. Berger Paints, Jamaica Producers has very little stock offered for sale and that could result in a sharp spike in price at any time, Mayberry Jamaican Equities (MJE), Mayberry Investments that will benefit from increased profit of MJE, NCB Financial, Wisynco Group that has gone back above the $10 price level, CAC2000 that is very scarce, Main Event and Stationery and Office Supplies that seem to have exhausted selling at $09.50 with $10 being the possible next level. A number of these have limited supplies for sale.
With the average PE of the market now at a comfortable 16 times 2018 earnings, stocks valued less than the market average could see increased interest as investors look for bargains.
Grace Kennedy seems ready to break out of the $60 range as there is no big supply on offer now and during the past

Caribbean Cement price is stuck in the mud for now.

week, it traded as high as $75. Caribbean Cement keeps trading between $46 and $50, but there appears no real desire to move the price forward, this one could be negatively affected by foreign exchange losses in the September quarter. Kingston Wharves has always had limited supply, so it could move higher going forward, even the valuation is rich. Supply of JMMB Group has dried up and that could create the environment for the price to continue to move higher, it is also one of the lower valued stock in the main market. Investors need to bear in mind that the price is currently at a resistance level at $37, so it may move sideways with an upward bias for a while, unless strong buying pushes over this level.
An overall view of stocks indicates that the main market continues to be steered higher by an upward sloping support line as well the 45 and 125 day moving averages, lending support just below. The Junior Market is being guided by an upward rising long-term support line and a golden cross. The golden cross is a very strong bullish long-term signal, but market needs fuel of rising profits.

Watch NCB & Kremi this week

NCB Financial could be a winner this week.


The main market of the stock exchange closed the week with two of the highest daily increases in the market index ever, a clear sign that investors want stocks to buy and the supply remains very limited and putting the bulls in control.
The moves last week in the main market and since the start of August has set the stage for several stocks to be on the move this week.
The Junior Market continues to inch forward as it appears that investors are waiting on results. They should get Caribbean Cream this week and that should be a strong set of results as the company benefits from lower raw material cost compared to the first quarter when profits jumped 59 percent.
The indicators point to continued increased interest in the main market stocks with a number of them are high on the list to watch for this week. Stocks of interest this week are Grace Kennedy, Barita Investments, Berger Paints, Mayberry Jamaican Equities, NCB Financial, Wisynco, Caribbean Cream, CAC 2000, Main Event and Stationery and Office Supplies, many of these have limited supplies for sale.
With the average PE of the market now approaching a comfortable 16 times 2018 earnings, stocks valued less than the market average could see increased interest as investors look for bargains.
NCB Financial went sideways for around two weeks but bids started building close to the closing prices last week and that could help it move higher this week. Barita had a relatively strong day on Friday with 261,000 shares trading, leaving only a minute amount of 6,200 units on offer at $25.

Caribbean Cream should post big gains in profit in Q2 this week.

Grace Kennedy seems ready to break out of the $60 range as there is no big supply on offer now and during the past week, it traded as high as $75. Caribbean Cement keeps trading between $46 and $50, but there appears no real desire to move the price forward, this one could be negatively affected by foreign exchange losses in the September quarter. Kingston Wharves has always had limited supply, so it could move higher going forward, as can be seen from the big jump on Friday to $83 at 52 times 2018 earnings the valuation is rich. Supply of JMMB Group have dried up and that could create the environment for the price to continue to move higher, it is also one of the lower valued stock in the main market. Investors have gradually sucked out most of the supply of Stationery and Office Supplies, below $10 and the price could move to the $10 level during the course of the week.
An overall view of stocks indicates that the main market continues to be steered higher by an upward sloping support line as well the 45 and 125 day moving averages, lending support just below. The Junior Market that traded recently at an all-time high, is being guided by an upward rising long-term support line and a golden cross. The golden cross is a very strong bullish long-term signal.

All Jamaica claims 411,546 – Thursday

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The main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange broke through 410,000 mark based on movement of the All Jamaica Composite Index in early trading on Wednesday and moved higher by 3,093.31 points to a record 411,545.91.
The JSE Index that jumped to a record 374,251.61 in early trading moved on to 374,964.90 with gains of 2,818.36, The Junior Market rose 19.93 points to 3,401.72. Grace Kennedy raced to an all-time high of $75, NCB Financial moved up to a record of $131, Supreme Ventures climbed to $21.70, JMMB Group jumped to $35 and Mayberry Jamaican Equities traded at $12.
The main market broke through all resistance points, with the last being 400,000 points with the next big one being 510,000 points region. If it got there in 2018, would represent a gain of 24 percent from current levels and lift the gains for the year to 60 percent.

Barita is stock to watch this week

The main stock of interest this week is Barita Investments that came into buying interest this past week leading the price to move to $12.95, this one seems headed higher in the short term as the supply that  is on the market has been taken out with few stocks on offer now.
Bulls pushed the Jamaican stock market, to new heights last week, with the main market having 11 straight days of record highs and the Junior Market cleared the historical high reached in 2017, in the past week as well.
NCB Financial that was in the spotlight for the past two weeks, still has buying interest but seems to be having most bids around the $120 mark and may find it tough to break over the $130 mark where it traded during the past week.
While the stock is trading close the $130 mark in Jamaica, it is trading in Trinidad around J$115 and that may hold back the price from moving much higher locally until the price in the twin island state picks up. Scotia Group reported profit that showed gains, some of it was non-recurring income and exceptional foreign exchange gains that seems unlikely to repeat anytime soon.
While the supply of several of the main market stocks being scarce, the main market is just under 15,000 points from a major resistance level at 400,000 points and that could stymie much more movement in the short term, with some prices having moved quite a bit recently. There are several stocks priced well below the market’s average and that could encourage buying interest in them.

NCB stock closed at $129 on Friday.

Investors should keep their eyes on a number of stocks this week. NCB Financial that closed on $115, should move higher this week as demand continues to build and with limited supply on offer.
Grace Kennedy may not be ready to break out of the $60 range as yet but it’s a stock to keep an eye on. Caribbean Cement keeps trading between $46 to $50, but there appears no real desire to move the price forward. Kingston Wharves traded at a record high of $75 on limited volume in the past week but pulled back slightly to $72 at the close with a PE ratio of 46 is compared to a market average of 14.6. Supply of the stocks remain low, but some investors keep on buying. Sygnus Credit Investments picked up last week and moved back within a cent of the IPO price, buoyed by full year results of US$1.4 million. The PE ratio is 11.4, well below the market average of 14.6, that will encourage more interest in the stock. Jamaica Producers has very limited volume on offer and that could help buying at higher prices in spite of a PE of 28, twice the market average. Stanley Motta with a PE of 11 based on 2019 earnings has been recovering for the recent decline and is one to watch.
In the Junior Market, Indies Pharma, came in for continued buying that pushed the price to a record high of $4.10 on Friday against very limited supply. Some selling came into the market on Friday to ease the buying pressure on the price which could stick around the current level of $4 for a while. Bulls came in and bought out a big parcel of Access Financial that was on offer for weeks but the $50 level seems a barrier in the short term. Demand is building for Elite Diagnostic while supply has waned.

Jamaica Producers stock in demand in spite of high price.

General Accident could move higher as more demand comes in for it with limited selling, but investors may not want to be more aggressive with this stock at this time. If the company were to announce expansion into the Eastern Caribbean it may well make a difference.
Stocks with scarce supplies that could spring surprises include, Grace Kennedy, NCB Financial, Berger Paints, Caribbean Cement, Kingston Wharves, PanJam Investment, Sagicor Group, Salada Foods, Seprod and Scotia Group.
The Junior Market supplies continue to be limited for many of the listings. The list includes, Caribbean Flavours, Cargo Handlers, Derrimon Trading, Express Catering, General Accident, ISP Finance and Medical Disposables.
An overall view of stocks indicates that the main market continues to be steered higher by an upward sloping support line as well the 45 and 125 day moving averages, lending support just below, but the 400,000 points resistance could likely stall the rally in the main market for a while. The Junior Market now at an all-time high, is being steared by an upward rising long-term support line and a golden cross. The golden cross is a very strong bullish long-term signal.

JSE stocks retreat from Thursday’s record

Mayberry Jamaican Equities traded 1M shares & the price hits a new high of $10 but retreated by Friday’s close.

The All Jamaican Composite Index of the Jamaica Stock Exchange and the JSE index fell more than 2,000 points as main market stocks retreated from Thursday’s record close as the market set its sight on breaking through the 350,000 mark this coming week.
At the close, the All Jamaican Composite Index dropped 2,312.28 points to 346,726.53 and the JSE Index dived 2,106.75 points to 315,907.02. Market activities resulted in 31 securities trading including 3 in the US dollar market compared to 27 securities trading on Thursday.
At the end of trading, the prices of 12 stocks rose, 12 declined and 7 traded unchanged. Trading in the main market ended with 12,389,267 units valued $54,066,117, compared to 7,549,926 units valued at $378,631,059 on Thursday.

The day’s volume was led by, JMMB Group 7.5% preference share concluded trading at $1.03, with 8,590,090 shares with 69.3 percent of the traded volume, followed by Mayberry Equities that closed at $9 in trading 1,046,000 shares, for just 8.4 percent of the day’s volume after trading at an intraday high of $10 and Supreme Ventures with 604,043 units and 4.9 percent of the main market volume.
Stocks with major price changes| Caribbean Cement jumped $2.50 and finished at $47.50, trading 73,872 shares, Grace Kennedy rose 85 cents and ended trading at $59.50, with 41,775 shares, JMMB Group lost $1 and ended at $29, exchanging 120,176 shares, Mayberry Investments gained 39 cents to settle at $7.89, with 10,100 units, PanJam Investment fell 80 cents and concluded trading 42,221 shares and closed at $51.60, Portland JSX lost 50 cents and ended at $8 trading 2,700 units, Sagicor Real Estate Fund dived $2.90 to $12, with 11,200 shares, Salada Foods shed $1 to close at $17, in exchanging 48,271 units, Scotia Group rose 50 cents in traded 113,232 shares to close at $53,  Seprod finished trading 4,500 shares, and gained 59 cents to close at $36.10, ended at $15, with 21,164 shares after losing 30 cents, Victoria Mutual Investments lost 42 cents in concluding trading at $3.51, with 604,043 stock units and Wisynco Group fell 25 cents and finished trading 105,450 shares to end at $9.05.
Trading in the US dollar market closed with Margaritaville traded 9,700 shares and ended at 18 US cents Proven Investments trading 44,500 shares, falling 0.09 cent and closed at 19.01 US cents and Sygnus Credit Investments traded 9,000 shares and rose 0.03 cent to 10 US cents. The JSE USD Equities Index slipped 0.12 points to end at 159.24.
Trading resulted in an average of 492,474 units valued at over $1,930,933, in contrast to 290,382 shares valued at $14,562,733 on Thursday. For the month to date an average of 231,530 shares valued at an average of $4,665,985 versus 211,092 shares valued at an average of $4,956,066 on Thursday. July closed with an average of 169,022 units valued at $3,514,756, for each security traded.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, the Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 5 stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and 4 closing with lower offers.

More records for JSE main market

Mayberry Jamaican Equities traded for the first time after a successful IPO at $9.82 and NCB Financial traded at $102, for a gain of $1.48 to help to main market to new record high in early trading on Tuesday.
The Mayberry Jamaican Equities trade was for 1,000 units and resulted in a gain of $2.26 or 29.89 percent gain on the IPO price of $7.56. NCB traded just 35,991 shares.
With just 45 minutes of trading elapsing, the All Jamaican Composite Index advanced by 1,476.90 points to a record high of 342,356.79 and the JSE Index gained 1,345.62 points to close at 311,925.68. The Junior market was down by 17.75 points to 3,088.81.

Stocks to Watch this week

Caribbean Cream’s Kremi product

There are clear signs that the usual summer rally has started on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, with the main market hitting new highs on all five trading days during the past week, and ending at record closing highs on all, except on Friday.
The main market entered record territory, minutes after opening on Friday with the All Jamaican Composite Index climbing 1,082.40 points to an intraday record of 340,315.50 and the JSE Index rising 986.19 points to a record 310,065.85. The market is being steered higher by an upward sloping support line as well the 45 and 125 day moving averages, lending support just below the index for the main market and the Junior Market is being steered by an upward rising long term support line.
The market saw many developments that confirm that a bull market is in place. Mayberry Jamaican Equities initial public offer, opened and closed on Monday, having been oversubscribed and Indies Pharma public offer opened on Thursday and closed on Friday but Stanley Motta remains opened after more than a week since the offer opened.
Elsewhere in the secondary market, Jamaica Broilers traded briefly at a record high of $33, others trading at 52 weeks’ high in the main market are Kingston Wharves trading at $52.03, PanJam Investment at $58.99 and Pulse Investments trading up to $3.50, but 138 Student Living, having fallen to a 52 weeks’ low of $4.40 the previous week fell even lower in this past week to $3.85,
Former TOP 10 Junior Market listing, Derrimon Trading ordinary share, hit at an all-time high of $23 during the week. Current TOP 10 listing, CAC2000 hit a new record high of $10 as well as C2W Music climbed to $1.60, while recently listed Everything Fresh traded at an all-time low of $1.95 since listing in June. US dollar market listings, Margaritaville and Proven Investments both traded at a 52 weeks’ lows during the week as investors seem to lose interest in the US dollar listed shares.
The main market is exhibiting strong bullish signals while the Junior Market seems more subdued apparently waiting on the release of results.

Stationery & Office Supplies new book making operation.

Against this back drop there could be some interesting developments in in the market in the coming days. Based on demand and supply of stocks and trading activities last week the stocks worth watching this week include, Caribbean Cream that jumped sharply on Friday after the company reported improve first quarter results, NCB Financial pulled back in the past week but may be constrained by the $100 mark until the group reports third quarter results by month end. PanJam Investment could move higher again, as there continues to be buying but there is very limited supply of the stock on offer. Radio Jamaica that came for increased buying recently seems to be seeing supplies coming to market at $1.20 or higher and could get more attention as the weeks roll on. Others worth watching include Caribbean Cement, Berger Paints with little selling, Grace Kennedy for which there is also limited supply. In the Junior market, some demand exists for Derrimon Trading, with a resolution to be voted on at the upcoming AGM to split each share into 10 units, but the price may be stuck around the $20-23 range with the PE more than 20 times 2018 earnings compared to the market average of 11.4. Stationery and Office Supplies continues to trade around the $8 mark, with limited supply on offer, the stock is worth watching but may require second quarter results to kick the price to another level. With the directors stating that they have discussed the possibility of a stock split in the past, the stock can be expected to be one to see a split probably by the next AGM, investors should be stock piling this one with the price being undervalued. Jamaican Teas pulled back in the past week from $5.50 to $5 this week, but with limited stocks being offered for sale, is worth watching. Wisynco seems to have found support just above $9 and is one to watch over the next few weeks as the release of full year result nears, the Jamaican Stock Exchange is another to be watched along with JMMB Group and Seprod.

Record run for IC TOP stocks

Kingsley Cooper Chairman of Pulse that gained 67% during the past week.

Pulse Investments, in the main market TOP 10, up to the week starting June 25, jumped 67 percent this past week, to close at $3. Current listings, Caribbean Cement traded at $45 and Grace Kennedy at $56 both at 52 weeks’ highs during the week.
Former listing, Derrimon Trading ordinary share traded at an all-time high of $20.50 during the week while, the preference share traded at $2.45 for at a new high. The week closed out with 138 Student Living, falling to a 52 weeks’ low of $4.40 but C2W Music climbed to a 52 weeks’ high of $1.30 as the main market moved within just 300 points of the record high reached on June 13, while the Junior Market traded at the highest level during the week, since December last year.
There is just one change to the TOP 10 listings at the end of the week, with Stationery and Office Supplies that just slipped off the Junior Market list at the end of the previous week returning after Caribbean Producers that dethroned it in the previous week was squeezed it out, as Carib Producers rose to $5.50 from $5.10 at the end of the previous week.
With the average PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks at 6.2 compared to an average PE for the overall market of 11, based on 2018 estimated earnings and the main market PE at 7.9 for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 13, suggest that the rest of the year should deliver better returns than the first half. A look back on the markets shows that they made noticeable rise in August last year, a pattern that goes back several years and could well do so again.
The sharp reduction in Bank of Jamaica policy rate to an unprecedented 2 percent and Treasury bill interest rates to record lows of 2.5 percent, is set to push stocks values much higher unless profits for most of the listed companies decline. The shortage of supply of many listings continues and is set to result in a big rise in prices going forward before supplies will be able to satisfy what is likely to be a rising demand.
Last week prospectuses for Stanley Motta and Mayberry Jamaican Equities were published and this week Indies Pharma is released. The first two are not priced to bounce based on the underlying nature of these companies. Stanley Motta is a real estate play that will provide income that is better than most fixed interest securities with moderate capital appreciation going forward, while Mayberry Jamaican Equities is a closed end mutual fund, growth is going to depend of appreciation in the investments held or to be acquired. Indies Pharma, with IC Insider.com preliminary earnings estimate for 2018 of 16 cents per share, could get a bounce sometime after listing and could reach $2.40. The stock sits in the mid-range of IC Insider.com’s ranking of Junior Market stocks with a PE of 10 just a bit less than the average of 11 for the market but most IPOs have traded around 15 times the current year’s earnings.
IC Insider.com’s TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 45 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 39 percent to the market.
 Stocks to Watch The stocks to watch this week include, NCB Financial. PanJam Investment could move higher again, as there continues to be buying but there is very limited supply of the stock on offer. Radio Jamaica that came for increased buying recently seems to be seeing supplies coming to market at $1.20 or higher and could get more attention with the network broadcasting the popular world cup matches as adverting revenues should climb from the coverage. Others worth watching include Caribbean Cement, Berger Paints with little selling, Grace Kennedy for which there is also limited supply and Pulse Investments. In the Junior market, Demand for Derrimon Trading should continue with a resolution to be voted on at the upcoming AGM to split each share into 10 units. Supplies for Stationery and Office continue to trade around the $8 mark with limited supply, the stock could move higher in coming days or weeks. Jamaican Teas pulled back in the past week from $5.50 to $5 this week, but with limited stocks being offered for sale, is worth watching.

IPO facts investors should know

“Hello my dear client, the day we have been waiting for to increase your wealth is here. The Mayberry Jamaican Equities IPO has finally arrived, the stock is a must have at this time. Attached are the Prospectus and Application Form for your attention. The official opening date is Monday, July 9, 2018, the demand is high so please don’t delay,” Kind regards, a MIL wealth adviser.
The above was a message sent out by one of Mayberry’s wealth advisor. A group of investors stated in 2017 that investors cannot go wrong with Junior Market IPOs, all that has to be done is just buy, buy, buy and the investor cannot fail to make money. Some investors in the last two IPOs, Sygnus Credit and Everything Fresh bought into the issues heavily, hoping to catch an early bounce and pocket the profit. That the initial bounce did not last, should be a lesson to speculators.

%8 Half Way Tree Road owned by Stanley Motta.

Laden with 6 main and Junior Market stocks, Mayberry Jamaican Equities is issuing 120,114,929 ordinary shares to the public, at a price of $7.57 each. Investors really ought to know what they are buying into when IPOs are being issued, rather than thinking that the price of each IPO can only go in one direction – up. As the stock market matures and more persons come to the party of stock ownership, the valuations that new IPOs come to the market at, will continue to rise and less immediate potential gains will be priced in. In some cases, investors will need to look long term for the payoff from their investment.
Everything Fresh, Sygnus Credit, Stanley Motta and Mayberry Jamaican Equities fall into this category. GWest was another company that many investors got carried away with, in pushing the price to $4 with many buying at inflated values, now the stock trades in the low $2 range. A reminder of an adage, that successful trading starts at buying at the right price. GWest business model is based mainly on generating most income and profits coming from operating mini hospital and other patient care. Real estate income going forward was going to be secondary and would not contribute much to profit. Profit made in the year before listing was mostly from sale of real estate and that was not something that would continue for any prolonged period. Without a track record in providing healthcare, investors who bought the stock in the high $3-4 level must have been hoping that the forecast in the prospectus was going to be achieved on a timely basis. The results to March show revenues well below forecast from the new operations. The company projected medical income to March this year, at $86 million but only generated $17.4 million and that puts the issue of generating the forecasted $710 million for fiscal year 2019, in doubt. Admittedly, the company had projected a loss to March of $110 million but came up sharply lower with a loss of $88 million.
Investors should recognize that not all IPOs are equal. They should also realize that there is a clear pattern that prices then to move up for strongly demanded issues and the undergo some correction. The data shows that the best time to buy after the IPO closes is on the first day or two or a few weeks after when demand falls off and supply increases as short term investors try to offload.
Data for listings in 2016 to 2018 show and average of 31 percent correction for Junior Market stocks from the highest point to the lowest, after listings which tends to occur within 4 weeks of listing. IPOS from Mayberry seem to have a lower pull back in price, around an average of 23 percent while most others, average around 33 percent. Three main market stocks pull back from their highest point, range from just 15 percent for Victoria Mutual Investments to 31 percent for Wisynco and 29 percent for Sygnus Credit Investments.
Based on how investors have gone about pricing IPOs at their peak it seems likely that Indies Pharma will peak around $2.40 based on projected earnings in 2018, of 16 cents per share. It could even go higher if the number of investors who apply for shares exceed those Junior Market listings IPOS from those going back to 2018.