The TOP 10 no brainer investing

Caribbean Cement highly rated in TOP 10

Investing in the TOP 10 junior or main market stocks is a no brainer. These stocks are valued well below the average of the market PE ratio and at an even larger discount to the valuation based on 2016 earnings, around 20 times.
Investors would be well advised to leave emotions out of investment decision making and get and stick to facts. Investors who bought Jamaica Stock Exchange at $14 now and now seeing it trading at $7 after just a few weeks, can attest to that. Even investors at current prices may find that the price could fall further when the company post its first quarter results. Those results will not enjoy the big income generated in the first quarter of 2016, estimated at $110 million, from the transfer of the shares in Desnoes and Geddes and should result in a big fall in profit for the 2017 quarter. Investors also pushed Jamaica Producers to dizzying heights, only to see a marked decline in the share price after, from $22 down to the $16 level and may have cause to worry with 2016 earnings from continuing operations not supporting the high valuation placed on it.
The market appears to be consolidating with a number of 2016 results not sending strong buy signals currently.
Prices of Access Finance, Dolphin Cove and Jetcon Corporation rose during the past week and exited the IC Insider.com’s Top 10 junior market list. These stocks are still within striking distance for the top tier listing but market activity in the coming week could change all of that.
Jetcon rose 22 percent during the week and 522 percent since it was listed in March last year. Entering the top list are Lasco Distributors, the expectations are that the company will benefit from the claim for damages, with much of the funds retained for income generation purposes,Lasco Manufacturing and AMG Packaging as the prices of all three slipped during the week. AMG Packaging approved 5 for 1 stock split, is to be effected on March 10, after much delay.
In the main market of teh Jamaica Stock Exchange, Cable & Wireless reported larger losses than expected in the nine months to December, as a result IC Insider.com revised the forecast for 2017 down to just 10 cents on the assumption of continued strong growth in revenues. The stock fell out of the top list as a result of the earnings down grade. The move by Cable & Wireless let Jamaica Broilers into the list with the stock prices falling to $14.54 on Friday.

Car dealer doubles 2015 profit

Jetcon ends at a new closing high of $13 on Tuesday.

Profit for 2016 more than doubled for pre-owned car dealer, Jetcon Corporation, moving from $51 million in 2015 to $105 million before tax and from $40 million to $98 million after tax and resulted in a 49.4 percent average rate of return on capital, up from 46.6 percent in 2015.
Earnings per share ended the year at 54 cents for the first year that the company listed on the junior market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange.
Revenues for the year grew by 64 percent, higher than the 49 percent increase for 2015 over 2014. The performance resulted in revenues of $858 million versus $524 million in 2015. The company’s revenues increased over the prior year, in each quarter, ending at $148 million in the first quarter, $195 million in the June quarter, $268 million in the September quarter and $228 million in the December quarter.
Gross profit increased by 75 percent as gross profit margin increased over 2015. Selling and marketing expenses more than doubled to $13 million from $6 million in 2015 while administrative and other expenses climbed by a third to $36 million from $27 million.
Growth in profit, helped to propel the stock from its initial listing price of $2.25 to a high of $13 reflecting a gain of 478 percent since it listed in March 2016. A trade at $14.80 towards the end of trading on Tuesday was cancelled.
Capital| Jetcon put the net new capital of just under $90 million raised in the initial public offer (IPO) into increased inventory, resulting in increased choices and strong sales growth in the post listing period.
The economic environment is positive to allow for increased business. Some of these are reduction in lending rates and a high percentage of the value of vehicles covered by lending institutions. Improvement in the wider economy backed by tax reductions for some workers, along with increased remuneration and the lowest inflation rate in several decades would all have played a part.
Gross cash flow generated from operations, ended at $100 million but inventories grew by $166 million, to end the year at $251 million, including goods in transit. The capital from the IPO and the profit for the year strengthened to financials, with equity capital of $294 million up from just $107 million at the end of 2015.

Jetcon Corporation revenues enjoyed strong growth for 2016

The directors approved an interim dividend of 7 cents per share, payable on March 15, 2017 to shareholders on record as of February 24, 2017 and will be recommending that a 3 for 1 stock split be considered by shareholders for approval at the upcoming annual general meeting to be hold later this year.
Update| According to a release by the company, revenues for 2017 up to the date of the report, is 77 percent ahead of the first two months of 2016. “Based on orders on our books and sales for 2017 towards the end of February, we expect revenues and profit in Q1, to be ahead of that for 2016, barring unforeseen developments.”
“Whilst we cannot say with certainty that the above pace of sales growth will continue for the full year, our budgets, forecast and strategies for the year, is for increased revenues and profit as we work as a team to build the company into one that the stakeholders will view positively”, the statement concluded.
If the pace of growth in revenues seen for the first two months, continues to the end of March, revenues for the quarter would be the higher than in any quarter for 2016.
Persons contributing to articles on listed companies may have connection with them and may have interest in their shares.

Changes for TOP 10 stocks

Gains in the overall market of 20 percent for the year to date have spawned some attractive gains for many stocks, but there is likely to be much more to come for the rest of the year.
The junior market hit new highs during the past week but pulled back quite a bit on Friday, leading to positive and negative price changes. ISP Finance had two sizable trades during the week, the price was up to a new high of $10 but closed the week at $9. Medical Disposables slipped by $1.40 to $6 at the end of the week. Access Finance closed with the bid at $38 compared to $35 last week. Earnings for Lasco Manufacturing and Lasco Financial were reduced following release of the December results and partially accounted for the fall out of the TOP 10 for the two. Lasco Manufacturing sits just below the TOP 10 with a PE of 9 while Lasco Financial is in 16th spot with a PE of 10, both are below the junior market average of 12. The space left by the two, have been filled by General Accident having a PE of 8 and Caribbean Producers valued at a PE of just under 9.
In Main market TOP 10 trading activity during the past week, Jamaica Broilers jumped to $16 from $14.50 to end up be edged out of the top list by Scotia Investments. Strong demand pushed the number 1 main market stock, Cable & Wireless to $1.50 from $1.28 at the start of the week with more news on a potential offer to buy out minority shareholders by Liberty Global, while Caribbean Cement jumped to a new high of $39.60 but closed with just limited selling at $45. The company reported profit of $1.3 billion for 2016 down from $1.55 billion in 2015. In 2016 there were exceptional costs of $807 million while 2015 had one off income of $168 million. The cost savings that will flow from the cut in the labour force will have a positive effect on cost for 2017. Broilers that now sits just below the TOP 10 boast a PE of just 8 compared to an average for the main market of 12 and a potential of 20 for the year.

Broilers and Kremi now TOP 10ers

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The past week saw much changes in the main and junior markets as prices gyrated up and down, for several of the stocks. Some of the highly valued stocks, declined in value as some investors took profit from the sharp rise since the start of 2017, for a number of stocks.
In the TOP 10 junior market selection, Caribbean Flavours (CFF) rose 24 percent to $12.44 during the week and moved out of the list, with the bid at $12.50, making space for Caribbean Cream, now occupying ninth spot. CFF sits just outside the top tier of junior market stocks and could well reenter at the end of next week. ISP Finance moved to a new high of $10.10 on the bid, having traded during the week at record high of $10 and no longer sits on the number 1 spot. Key Insurance suffered a setback with a big 2016 fourth quarter loss of $136 million, coming from increased insurance claim provisioning of $433 million for the quarter and $1 billion for the full year. Hopefully, that is now behind them, clearing the way for 2017 to deliver what the company seems capable of doing. tTech pulled back in price, to sit at a more comfortable $7, after some selling came in for the stock. Access Financial climbed to a new all-time high of $35, helped by strong nine months results and lack of supply of stocks for sale.
Scotia Investments climbed to $41.19 during the week, from $38 the previous week and exited the TOP 10 main market stocks. The move made space for Jamaica Broilers that lost value during the past week, falling from $16.25 at the start of the week, down to a more attractive $14.50, with an increased forecast of $2 earnings per share for the 2018 fiscal year starting May, this year. The week saw more interest in Radio Jamaica and JMMB Group, the latter trading at $23 on Friday, but closed lower by the end of trading, helped by net profit rising 55 percent to $2.68 billion, for the nine months to December last year. Earnings per share for the nine months came out at $1.63 and 39 cents for the December quarter.

Main Event jumps TOP 10 stocks

Main Event Entertainment, Jamaica’s recent initial public stock offering, listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange junior market this past week. The stock traded just 100 units on Wednesday, the opening day for a 30 percent rise from the IPO price of $2.
On Thursday a small amount traded at $3.70 and on Friday the stock shot to $4.70 with 15,722,362 units trading. The price has so far risen by 138 percent and seems to be heading higher.
The one week performance, pushed Main Event out of the IC Insider’s 2017 TOP 10 stocks, for the junior market. Lasco Financial Services entered the listing at ninth spot with potential to gain over 100 percent in the next twelve months based on projected 2018 fiscal year earnings and a market PE of 20.
Access Financial reported an 87 percent improvement in results for the December quarter, with profit of $142 million and $494 million for the nine months versus $296 million in 2015, at Caribbean Flavours, profit rose 31 percent in the December quarter to $23 million and to $43 million for the six months versus $37 million in 2015. ISP Finance reported increased profit for 2016 over 2015 with $39 million generated versus $31 million in 2015, the unaudited report showed healthy gains in the loan portfolio and a reduction in loan losses. Lasco Financial reported a 51 percent increase in profits for the December quarter of $75 million before tax, compared to 2015. Profit before taxation for the nine months’ period rose 21 percent to $199 million, but Lasco Manufacturing suffered a profit set back with lower profits of $113 million in the third quarter compared with $233 million in the December 2015 quarter. Increased profit after tax in the first 6 months, kept the year to date decline, to a moderate level, with profit of $700 million versus $729 million in 2015. The company will still be bringing new products to market in the current quarter that should have a positive impact on its operations during the 2018 fiscal year.

140% jump in past week for JSE stock

Major moves in the past week in the main market indices of the Jamaica Stock Exchange saw the market indices climbing sharply on three days, with more than 8,000 points on Thursday, more than 5,000 points move on Tuesday and one with over 2,300 points on Monday.
By the close on Friday, the market rose more than 7 percent in the week.
Jamaica Stock Exchange jumped sharply during the week by 140 percent, to $13.50 and joined Cargo Handlers, Kingston Wharves and Jamaica Producers with PE in excess of 30 times 2017 projected earnings. During the past week of rapid gains in some stocks, Radio Jamaica, Barita Investments, JMMB Group, Berger Paints and Scotia Investments all recorded gains during the week, with each hitting new 52 weeks’ highs.
The week closed with the full slate of stocks remaining in the IS Insider’s TOP 10. During the week Pulse Investments released quarterly results to December, with slightly lower profit for the quarter than in 2015 but with improved six months numbers over 2015.
The target PE used in the projecting prices is based on the market’s PE for 2016 earnings, for 12 stocks in the junior market and 11 in the main market that are selling around this level, with some well over.

Profitable growth continues at Access

Access closed last traded at $30 on the junior market.

Profit grew by an impressive 87 percent at Access Financial Services (AFS) to $142 million after tax for the quarter ending December, last year. In 2015 AFS reported net profit of $76 million for the corresponding period. The result represents a return on average equity of 49 percent.
Profit for the nine months to December rose 67 percent to $494 million and should end up around $740 million for the full year or $2.75 per share.
Net operating income for the quarter ended December 2016 amounted to $378 million, an increase of $83 million, or approximately 28 percent, when compared to the corresponding 2015 period. For the nine months it moved from $917 million to $1.07 billion. Income from loans increased by $30 million or 10 percent to $312 million for the quarter and from $824 million to $931 million of the nine months for a 13 percent increase.
Operating expenses for the quarter, increased by only 4 percent or $8 million when compared to the corresponding period ended December 2015 as a result of an increase in staff cost and other operating expenses. The company recorded a reduction in provision for loan loss based on portfolio risk assessment which showed improved credit quality. For the nine months operating expenses fell to $526 from $581 as loan loss provisions drop sharply from $195 million to just $94 million in 2016. While other operating expenses grew from $145 million to $199 million.
The net loan portfolio continues to show growth, with an increase of $441 million or 20 percent for the quarter since December 2015 to $2.65 billion. The Asset base of the company grew by $443 million which represents an 18 percent increase over the comparative period.

10 TOP JSE main market stocks for 2017

It is not always that main market stocks are more attractive buys than those in the junior market, but that is what is happening currently. Strong gains, in 2016 to end of January this year, in junior market companies, resulted in Jamaica Stock Exchange main market having stocks with better values than in the junior market.
The end result is that unlike other years when the junior market stocks tended to outperform those of in the main market by a ratio of 2 to 1, this year could see both markets gaining roughly the same.
The big question, of course, is what will be the accepted PE of the market? Currently, while the average for 2016 is 17 for the main market and the ratio based on 2017 estimated earnings is 11, with 11 stocks selling above this level, Jamaica Producers and Kingston Wharves have PE ratios over 30 times 2017 earnings.
The main market faces turbulence currently as the market is sitting just below a major resistance level around 243,000 points on the All Jamaica Index. If it can overcome this level, then it will encounter resistance around the 265,000 mark.
The TOP 10 list includes 4 financial sector stocks, two communication stocks and two from the manufacturing sector.
Cable & Wireless has made considerable progress in recent years, moving from major annual losses to a stage where they reported a small profit in fiscal year 2016 to March and should break even for the nine months to December, the new financial year end. Revenues have been climbing at double digit pace and should increase even more with the upturn in economic activity and with more persons being employed. The company recently raised rates on a number of its services that should help move revenues upwards. They have also made considerable recovery in their cellular customer base and have expanded it, generating increased revenues as a result. IC Insider.com forecast calls for a profit in 2017 with growth in 2018 as well.
On this basis, the stock is set to make solid gains. The only factor preventing that is a strong possibility that the parent company may move with an offer for the minority shares that would place a cap on the upside.
Radio Jamaica is under selling pressure as investors ignore the fundamentals and an improving economy that could result in increased profits and growth in the stock. The merger with the Gleaner was predicated a great deal on cost cutting. The group is doing just that and should benefit from a stronger marketing team and from increased advertising as businesses augment their advertising spend.
Caribbean Cement cut cost sharply in 2016 and saw growth in local sales for the first six months. However, closure of the plant for upgrading resulted in lost sales in the third quarter but sales recovered in the fourth quarter. Going into 2017, the cost savings should reduce operating cost and boost gross profit margins. Increased economic activity and lower cost of capital is leading to an uptick in the construction sector and consequently, an increase in demand for cement. The stock remains highly undervalued and has room for major gains ahead.

Barita is one of the top IC Insider’s stock for growth over the next 12 months in the main market.

Barita Investments has more than doubled in price since the start of September 2016, partly due to the 2016 results, but more on prospects of improved results for the 2017 fiscal year. The quality of the earnings improved markedly with fees and commission income tripling while net interest grew sharply from $118 million to $158 million for the September quarter, heralding healthy growth in these areas in 2017. Barita is set to benefit from appreciation in the value of the assets of unit trusts, especially in the equity-linked unit that will boost fee income. The company will also benefit from increased value to its equity portfolio that should grow sharply, allowing the company to realise investment gains that should add to profits. The equity linked unit trust fund should also enjoy healthy inflows from new investors as local stocks record gains and encourage new investors to use the unit trust as a viable vehicle for their investment funds.
Pulse Investments reported earnings of $1.35 last year and 32 cents for the September quarter that places the stock in the undervalued category even as the price climbed to $7.10 recently. It could go higher, but a bit of the earnings flow from revaluation surplus on property and that may cause some investors to discount the earnings. In a very bullish market, that may not matter much, for many investors. One positive, is that the cash flow statement shows cash inflows growing at a much higher level than in 2015.

Keith Duncan, Group Chief Executive Officer of JMMB.

JMMB Group is undervalued, period. The group is expanding and recording increasing profit and should end with earnings around $3 for the 2018 fiscal year with the eps for 2017 looking like $2.50.
Berger Paints had a very good run to December last year, with strong gains in profit as revenues grew attractively. Growth should continue into 2018 fiscal year, helped by increased building activity and an improving economy. Dividend payment should be high, thus boosting yields.
Scotia Investments should benefit in much the same way as Barita Investments. The investment bank reported earnings of $1.27 for the October quarter and IC Insider.com forecast is $4.96 for 2017. The increase should benefit from widening net interest income, as interest rates soften and more funds generated are added to the pool of interest earning pool as well as from growth in unit trust funds that will engender higher fee income, in addition to robust stock market activities that will also enhance fee income for the brokerage arm. On the negative side, the revaluation now taking place in the local currency could negatively affect earnings from trading in this area.
Carreras is one of the few stocks that have languished at the old price while many others have recorded active gains. The company just announced an interim payment of $2.20 bringing the payment since August last year to $5.40. The full year’s amount is likely to be in the order of $7.60 for a yield on the current price of 11.5 percent. This yield will not last as investors are going to eventually push it downward by bidding the price up as an income substitute. IC Insider’s forecast is for earnings of $9 per share for the 2018 fiscal year. The stock may well languish at current levels for a while. The longer it stays the better for those investors who may want to add it to their portfolio.
National Commercial Bank reported impressive profit results for their December quarter with a jump of 49 percent to $3.56 billion with earnings per share ending at $1.45, up from 96 cents in 2016. IC Insider.com forecast earnings of $8 per share for the current year. NCB declared an increase in its interim dividend payment from 50 cents in 2016 to 60 cents per ordinary stock unit payable in February. The payment represents 42.76 percent of the first quarter profits and is an indication of future payment.

Persons associated with this article may have an interest in the companies commented on.

10 TOP Junior market stocks for 2017

tTech, one of ICI Insider.com top selections for 2017.

With just over one month of 2017 slipping by, the junior market is up more than 14 percent in a relative short time. Market movement delivered some stunning gains with five stocks rising between 54 percent and 77 percent up to Friday.
The PE ratio, the best measure of valuing stocks, for this market is at 10.5 times 2017 estimated earnings and 16 times 2016, with 9 stocks selling above this level, including Cargo Handlers selling at a rich 51 times 2016 and 40 times 2017 earnings. The top 10 stocks have PE ratios for 2017 between 4.3 and 7.4 times estimated earnings compared to the average of 10.5. Nine socks are priced higher than the average.
Technical indicators show the junior markets braking through major resistance levels at 2,600 points and seem poised to reach new highs around 3,400 points before the next level of resistance is met, that is 15 percent away from the close on Friday.
What makes junior market stocks attractive, is their size, relative to the majority of main market stocks and their ability to grow at a much faster pace, from existing business or expansion into new ventures, delivering superior profits and greater growth in the stock prices.
ISP Finance has very limited supply of stocks available for sale, this should ensure that the price should surge to match seller and buyers. The company could see a sharp rise in profits if the $145 million raised in a bond issue last year is invested in new loans. Based on its interim results to September last year, interest income works out at 100 percent per annum. At these levels and with the infusion of cash from the bond and the cash to flow from profits, the stock could enjoy and explosive blast, if they are able to put the funds into profitable loans.
tTech revenues for this technology company grew strongly by 34.3 percent for the nine months to September and stronger 43 percent for the September quarter, with very good demand for its services. A negative is that cost has been growing just as fast, as they add personnel to service customers need. At September 2016, the company had 33 full-time employees compared to 24 at the same period in 2015. While staffing grew 57 percent between September 2015 and September 2016, the growth in the September quarter was only 7 percent over the June quarter. The sharp growth in cost slowed growth in profits, from a relatively small base. The slowdown in staffing in the September quarter, should allow more revenues to flow into profits in 2017 onwards.

Lasco Manufacturing

Lasco Manufacturing has enjoyed very strong demand for its new drinks, resulting in major expansion of the factory. Total revenue to September 2016 was $4 billion, an increase of 28 percent over the same period last year, resulting from increased production volumes brought to market, as part of the expansion of the manufacturing plant.
The company indicated that production at the liquid plant continues to grow steadily. The plan is for increase capacity to meet strong market demand for the iCool line of beverages, by ramping up production with the installation of additional equipment by the end of the financial year. The new Dry Plant at White Marl is fully operational together with the existing Red Hills Road Dry Plant. New products will be introduced by the end of 2016 to enhance the product line which is projected to continue to realize significant sales and profits, the company stated.
Main Event is the latest public issue to hit the market. The issue was heavily oversubscribed. The price is set to enjoy a big bounce when it list this week Wednesday with the PE ratio of just 7, based on 2016 earnings and less based on estimated 2017 profit. The funds raised will be used to expand its operation, including setting up a branch in Montego Bay.
Medical Disposables focussed on increasing the product line it represents in 2016, reflecting in a strong 38 percent sales growth for the first six months of the financial year, but at lower margins. Increased cost associated with the expanded sales has so far kept profit from growing a great deal in 2016. That should change in 2017, as sales growth, out pace cost increases. With the focus on rapidly expanding products and sales, this is clearly a stock for investors to keep a keen eye on.

Caribbean Flavours traded at $9.50 on the junior market last week

Caribbean Flavours is a company with much promise for growth, with potential for increased exports and new product lines for sale, locally and with the Caribbean region. The stock is selling below many other in the junior market currently, and the price has room to run, having fallen to $9.50 with the confusion investors faced, with the acquisition majority shares by Derrimon Trading.
Access Financial is undervalued based on a number of factors but the stock is extremely scarce. Earnings for the fiscal year ending March, should be in the order of $2.80 and based on this and with 10 junior market companies selling at more than 17 times 2016 earnings, the stock should be trading over $45. As the company makes profit, most of the funds are reinvested in its operation to expand loans, this in turn fuels strong increased profit. Access seems set to generate earnings of $4.35 per share for the 2018 fiscal year, which will push the price much higher than its current level.
Key Insurance nine months profit ended at $66 million compared to $68 million for the 2015 period and seems set to reach $120 million for the full year, for earnings per share of 35 cents. The company should benefit from the lowering of restriction on investments that insurance companies could undertake which should free up funds for more profitable investments as the companies see fit. Investing in general insurance companies can be riskier than for many other companies, in the short term.

Jetcon Corporation revenues enjoyed strong growth for 1st nine months of 2016

Jetcon Corporationlisted at $2.25 in 2016, is shot to $10.50 for a rise of 366 percent. An announcement of a stock split and dividend gave the stock added push as investors bought more shares at higher prices. The company more than doubled profits to September last year over results for 2015 for the same period. Jetcon benefitted from the capital injection of the public share issue. It helped boosts inventory, and in turn grew sales by 61 percent to $610 million for the nine months to September and 86 percent for the September quarter. The publicity from the listing seems to have enhance the company’s image in the minds of potential customers which has also helped sales. The trend of increased sales for the past two years suggest that sales growth may continue to be strong in 2017 and should be helped by the continued attractive financing terms available in the market, strengthening of the economy and reduction in PAYE that some workers will enjoy, when the tax threshold increases in April thus increasing take home pay.
Dolphin Cove was the darling of the investing public when the company was listed but seems to have lost its lustre as profit growth slowed sharply. With continued growth in the tourism industry and more cruise ships coming to the country, the company should get a boost in revenues and earnings for this undervalued stock.

Persons associated with this article may have an interest in the companies commented on.

BUY RATED stocks set for more big gains

Scotia Investments was added to BUY RATED stocks

In December last year, Scotia Investments was added to the BUY RATED list and in January this year, Main Event, the latest company that offered shares to the public, in a recent initial public offer, was added to the list.
Main Event is slated to list on the junior market next Wednesday. The strong fourth quarter results for Scotia Investments, and the attractive price, along with good potential growth for Main Event, made them compelling candidates to be placed on the list. The latter was heavily oversubscribed, and the listing opening in a very bullish market, is bound to result in a big increase for the stock price, within days of listing. IC Insider.com lifted the watch from a few of the stocks, based on what is expected of profits in 2017, that will make them attractive buys.
Many of the big winners are expected to grow as profit increases and the Jamaica Stock Exchange PE ratio increases, to better reflect valuations, with the low level of interest rates now in the system. With a number of stocks priced at PE in excess of 20, it is not far fetched to see many others joining this level, which would mean a continuation of the recent bull run on stocks.
The list shows that many of the listings in Jamaica, have done well, with some doing very well. While many are not likely to deliver outside returns, a few on the list, could do exceeding well. Listed among these are, Access Financial, ISP Finance, Lasco Manufacturing, Main Event and tTech from the Junior market and from the main market Barita Investments will be hard to catch while Caribbean Cement, JMMB Group and National Commercial Bank should be delivering gains of 100 percent or close to that level for 2017.
The Trinidad stocks seem mired in recent environment and but for a few cases are best left out of the reckoning for the time being.

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