Following the release of fourth quarter results and faced with a new IPO, investors took profit this past week, resulting in six changes to the ICTOP10 listings as the Junior Market hit a record high during the week at 4,076 points before pulling back 226 points and making some recovery on Friday. That market is caught between two resistance points that seem set to constrain movement beyond peak and the low reached last week.
Focus this coming week will be the response of the market to the latest IPO to hit the market as FJP Limited opens on Monday at $1 per share. The stock is not ICInsider.com BUY RATED, but it should deliver gains to investors, with the possibility of earnings estimated around 7 cents per share.
Entering the Junior Market TOP10 this week are Lasco Manufacturing, Iron Rock, iCreate and Lasco Financial slipped out last week, while 138 Student Living and Sygnus Credit Investments US dollar denominated stock join the Main Market list.
Out goes General Accident, Honey Bun, Medical Disposables and Tropical Battery from the Junior Market list, while VM Investments and Sterling Investments hit a record high on Friday of $3.65 from the Main Market listing.
During the week, the Junior Market TOP10 listed Tropical Battery rose 18 percent to close at $1.79, followed by Lasco Distributors with a gain of 5 percent to $4, while Cargo Handlers fell 11 percent to $7 and General Accident moved down 7 percent to $6.26, following the release of full year’s results, with a small loss reported in the December quarter.
In the Main Market, Sterling Investments rose 13 percent to a record close of $3.50 while JMMB Group added 5 percent to end at $44.30, with technical indicators pointing to a much higher price ahead as the stock is steered higher by a rising trend line.
The Junior Market potential gains for the TOP 10 Junior Market stocks are now at 104 percent and are now much lower than the Main Market at 126 percent. The top three stocks in the Junior Market are Cargo Handlers followed by Caribbean Assurance Brokers and AMG Packaging to gain between 109 and 129 percent, compared to 111 and 124 percent, previously.
The potential gains for Main Market stocks moved from 122 percent last week to this weeks’ 126 percent, with the top three being Guardian Holdings followed by JMMB Group and Sygnus Credit Investments all projected to gain between 165 and 185 percent versus 161 and 186 percent last week.
The average PE for Junior Market has moved to 17.7 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings and is ahead of the JSE Main Market at 16.9. In the process, the Junior Market has surpassed the average of 17 that was achieved at the end of March last year. The TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of a mere 9.8, with a 45 percent discount to that market’s average. That means there is a lot of room for the TOP10 stocks to run between now and the end of March.
All the stocks in the Junior Market can gain 13 percent to March this year, based on an average PE of 20 that would take the index to 4,700 points. About a third of Junior Market stocks with positive earnings are trading at or above this level, averaging around 23.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market is 16.9 just 12 percent less than the PE of 19 at the end of March and 18 percent below the target of 20 to March this year. The Main Market TOP 10 average PE is 9 representing a 47 percent discount to the market and well below the potential of 20. Around 18 stocks or 35 percent of the market trade at or above a PE of 19, with most over 20, for an average roundabout 25, suggesting that the accepted multiple is between 20 and 25 times the current year’s earnings.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list may or may not include the best companies in the market. 
ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings to highlight winners from the rest, allowing investors to focus on potential winning stocks and helping to remove emotional attachments to stocks that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on the possible increase for each company, considering the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
Six new additions to ICTOP10
Several changes for ICTOP10 listings
Increased buying interest coupled with the release of new results created many changes for the ICTOP10 listings this week. Tropical Battery came from nowhere, with stunning first quarter results to December, with profits surging from just $19 million in 2020 to $56.7 million as revenues surged 46.8 percent to $662 million and investors reacted to it right out of the block driving the price up 18 percent for the day.
Even with an 18 percent rise in the stock price, Tropical moved right to the top of the Junior Market TOP10 stocks with the potential to double in price. Medical Disposables price slipped with the stock now back in the TOP 10 and so did Access Financial while Cargo Handlers joins the TOP10 in fifth position.
Moving out of the TOP10 are Lasco Financial that was boosted by rising profits and enjoyed a 19 percent bounce in the price for the week and Jetcon Corporation. Lasco Manufacturing (Lasm) price rose 2 percent but the company posted good results that suggest a much higher stock price ahead and Stationery & Office Supplies (SOS) had a 24 percent rise to $7.31 as increased buying interest came in for the stock. Both stocks remain in the 2022 ICTOP15 list, with SOS in at the 6th spot and LASM at 11.
The Junior Market index upward move slowed this past week with year to date gains moving from 16.3 percent last week to 17.1 percent to Friday, this week. The Main Market seems to be bubbling with the market index up more than 7,700 points for February and is worth watching.
Recently listed Spur Tree Spices continues to consolidate around the $3 price level while, Future Energy, surged this past week to an all-time high of $5.20, on profit results that rose strongly in the December quarter at PE of 50, the price seems well ahead of the market.
Other decent moves in the Junior Market this past week are Caribbean Assurance Brokers that closed at $3.28 for a rise of 6 percent, General Accident moved up 4 percent to $6.76, AMG Packaging lost 6 percent to end at $3.48 and Honey Bun slipped 4 percent to $9.70.
In the Main Market, Jamaica Broilers rose 13 percent to $30.50, while Proven Investments and VM Investments both rose 8 percent for the week. Radio Jamaica released results for the nine months to December, with a slight reduction of 2.5 percent in revenues or $35 million leading to a fall in profit from $194 million in the December quarter to $108 million and Jamaica Broilers were replaced in the TOP10 by Berger Paints and Carreras.
The sharp price movements in the Junior Market over recent weeks reduced the potential gains markedly, with the average increase projected for the TOP 10 Junior Market stocks now at 105 percent and is now lower than the Main Market at 122 percent. The top three stocks in the Junior Market are Tropical Battery followed by Caribbean Assurance Brokers and Lasco Distributors to gain between 111 and 124 percent, compared to 114 and 126 percent, previously.
The potential gains for Main Market stocks moved from 123 percent to this weeks’ 122 percent, with the top three being JMMB Group followed by Guardian Holdings and Sygnus Credit Investments all projected to gain between 161 and 186 percent versus 165 and 186 percent last week.
After trading at a big discount to the Main Market for two years, the average PE for Junior Market has moved to 17.8 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings and is ahead of the JSE Main Market at 16.4. In the process, the Junior Market has surpassed the average of 17 that was achieved at the end of March last year. The TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of a mere 9.8, with a 45 percent discount to that market’s average. That means there is a lot of room for the TOP10 stocks to run between now and the end of March.
All the stocks in the Junior Market can gain 12 percent to March this year, based on an average PE of 20 that would take the index to 4,700 points. About a third of Junior Market stocks with positive earnings are trading at or above this level, averaging around 23.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market is 17.4 just 9 percent less than the PE of 19 at the end of March and 15 percent below the target of 20 to March this year. The Main Market TOP 10 average PE is 9.2 representing a 47 percent discount to the market and well below the potential of 20. Around 15 stocks or 30 percent of the market trade at or above a PE of 19, with most over 20, for an average roundabout 25, suggesting that the accepted multiple is between 20 and 25 times the current year’s earnings.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list may or may not include the best companies in the market.
ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings to highlight winners from the rest, allowing investors to focus on potential winning stocks and helping to remove emotional attachments to stocks that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on the possible increase for each company, considering the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
More changes for ICTOP10 listings
The Junior Market closed at record highs on each of the last seven days, fueled by an upsurge in trading, with several days ending with all listed securities trading driving the volume and value traded upwards to levels not seen in months and resulting in several stocks reaching new 52 weeks’ highs.
The Main Market showed some bullishness this past week with the JSE All Jamaican Composite Index climbing 6,525.97 points to the highest level since late October last year. More than two thirds of the gains came on Friday helped by gains by heavyweights, Sagicor Group putting on $1, Scotia Group popping $1.60 and Wisynco jumping $2.25 after reporting strong increased profit for the December quarter.
The Junior Market Index is up a remarkable 16.3 percent for the year to Friday that is more than half of all of the 2021 gains, with the average rise in prices even greater at 19 percent. That quick upward movement is equivalent to an annualized gain of 194 percent and may result in investors questioning its sustainability.
Spur Tree Spices seems to have reached a peak for now but the previously last listed Junior Market stock, Future Energy, gained new life and sprinted to an all-time high of $4.50, no doubt driven by investors’ views that the increased price of gasoline will drive up sales and margins. While sales will rise in dollar terms margin may not. The party was not only for the gasoline supplier, Fontana in the TOP10 for the week ending the 21st of January at $7.40 hit new record highs this week up to $12.49 for an increase of 69 percent in a matter of weeks.
Two high performing stocks pulled back this week Dolphin Cove hit a record high of $30 during the week but pulled back to $22 on Friday while former ICTOP10 listed Caribbean Producers hit a record high of $25.99 earlier in the week, pulled back to $16 on Thursday before closing the week at $17.85. December results should be out for this stock during the coming week and will have benefitted from the resurgence in tourist arrivals.
Medical Disposables gained 12 percent this past week to end at $7.55 and exited the Junior Market TOP10 listing, with Elite Diagnostic having traded at a 52 weeks’ high of $4.40 two weeks ago and ended the previous week at $3.73, suffered more losses this past week and is back to the TOP10. In the Main Market, Scotia Group rose nine percent to $37.50 and was replaced in the TOP10 by Jamaica Broilers.
Lasco Distributors jumped 15 percent to $3.73 ahead of third quarter results due out shortly and General Accident moved up 7 percent to $6.50, while Honey Bun and Jetcon Corporation both rose 5 percent in the week. AMG Packaging rose 3 percent to end at $3.70 and so did Caribbean Assurance Brokers that closed at $3.10.
Guardian Holdings climbed 5 percent to close at $575, JMMB Group held on to a 2 percent rise for the week and traded at a 52 weeks’ high of $44.61 on Friday but closed at $41.99. Pan Jam Investment and Radio Jamaica settled with a 5 percent rise for the week, while Proven Investment lost 8 percent to close at US$0.21 and Sygnus Credit Investments slipped 4 percent to $15.23.
The sharp price movements in the Junior Market over the recent past weeks reduced the potential gains markedly, with the average increase projected for the TOP 10 Junior Market stocks now at 104 percent versus 114 percent last week and is now lower than the Main Market at 128 percent.
The top three stocks are Caribbean Assurance Brokers followed by Lasco Financial and Lasco Distributors to gain between 114 and 126 percent, compared to 128 and 148 percent, previously.
The potential gains for Main Market stocks moved from 131 percent to this weeks’ 128 percent, with the top three being JMMB Group followed by Guardian Holdings and Sygnus Credit Investments all projected to gain between 165 and 186 percent from 155 and 193 percent last week.
After trading at a big discount to the Main Market for two years, the average PE for both the JSE primary markets has virtually merged just below 17 times 2021 earnings.
The Junior Market closed the week, with an average PE of 16.8 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings and is currently below the target of 20 and now virtually at the average of 17 that was achieved at the end of March last year. The TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of a mere 9.8, with a 42 percent discount to that market’s average. That means there is a lot of room for the TOP10 stocks to run between now and the end of March.
The Junior Market can gain 19 percent to March this year, based on an average PE of 20 that would take the index to 4,700 points. About a third of Junior Market stocks with positive earnings are trading at or above this level, averaging around 23.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market is 16.4 just 16 percent less than the PE of 19 at the end of March and 22 percent below the target of 20 to March this year. The Main Market TOP 10 average PE is 8.9 representing a 46 percent discount to the market and well below the potential of 20. A total of 14 stocks or 30 percent of the market trade at or above a PE of 19, with most over 20, for an average roundabout 25, suggesting that the accepted multiple is between 20 and 25 times current year’s earnings.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list may or may not include the best companies in the market. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings to highlight winners from the rest, allowing investors to focus on potential winning stocks and helping to remove emotional attachments to stocks that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on the possible increase for each company, considering the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
More fresh ICTOP10 listings
The markets were active this past week with the Junior Market closing at record highs on Thursday and Friday while the main market rose 2,750 points for the week, with former ICTOP10 listed Caribbean Producers hitting a record high of $20 at the close on Friday, up 19 percent from $16.74 last week and a stunning 614 since the start of 2021 as three TOP10 Main Market stocks enjoyed decent gains.
Access Financial fell from the Junior Market ICTOP10, with results for the nine months to December indicating that earnings for the full year will be in the $2 region rather than $2.60 that ICInsider.com previously projected, but it remains high on the 2022 TOP10. Elite Diagnostic traded at a 52 weeks’ high of $4.40 on Friday and ended at $3.73 with a gain of 7 percent in exiting the TOP10. 
Lumber Depot rose 10 percent to $3.20 and dropped out of the top listing. AMG Packaging rose 18 percent to end at $3.59, while Caribbean Assurance Brokers and Stationery & Office Supplies both gained 3 percent to remain in the TOP10. There are no new listings for the TOP10 Main Market for the week.
Guardian Holdings climbed 6 percent to close at $550, JMMB Group rose 8 percent to $40.99 and Sygnus Credit Investments jumped 10 percent to $15.84.
The sharp price movements in the Junior Market over the recent past weeks reduced the potential gains markedly, with the average increase projected for the TOP 10 Junior Market stocks now at 114 percent versus 119 percent last week and is now lower than the Main Market.
The top three stocks are Lasco Distributors followed by Caribbean Assurance Brokers and Lasco Financial to gain between 128 and 148 percent, compared to 131 and 150 percent, previously.
The potential gains for Main Market stocks moved from 139 percent to this weeks’ 131 percent, with the top three stocks being JMMB Group followed by Guardian Holdings and Sygnus Credit Investments all projected to gain between 155 and 193 percent from 151 and 254 percent last week.
After trading at a big discount to the Main Market for two years, the average PE for both the JSE primary markets has merged at 16.5 times 2021 earnings.
The Junior Market closed the week, with an average PE of 16.5 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings and is currently below the target of 20 and now very close to the average of 17 that was achieved at the end of March last year based on 2020 earnings. 
The TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of a mere 9.4, with a 43 percent discount to that market’s average.
The Junior Market can gain 21 percent to March this year, based on an average PE of 20 that would take the index to 4,400 points. Twelve stocks representing 29 percent of all Junior Market stocks with positive earnings are trading at or above this level, averaging 25.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market is 16.5 just 15 percent less than the PE of 19 at the end of March and 21 percent below the target of 20 to March 2022. The Main Market TOP 10 average PE is 8.8 representing a 47 percent discount to the market and well below the potential of 20. A total of 14 stocks or 30 percent of the market trade at or above a PE of 19, with most over 20, for an average roundabout 25, suggesting that the accepted multiple is between 20 and 25 times the current year’s earnings.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list may or may not include the best companies in the market. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings to highlight winners from the rest, allowing investors to focus on potential winning stocks and helping to remove emotional attachments to stocks that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on the possible increase for each company, considering the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
New ICTOP10 listings & more big gains
Long time Junior Market ICTOP10 listed Access Financial, finally broke away from resistance and jumped 31 percent for the week to $26.28, but traded at a 52 weeks’ high of $28 on Wednesday and just barely hung on to the top ten in the tenth spot.
Access Financial Services top performing ICTOP10 stock for the past week.
In the Main Market, Radio Jamaica rose 19 percent to $4.10, the 2021 ICTOP10 top performer, Caribbean Producers, climbed 5 percent and finally slipped out of the top 10 after a ride lasting more than a year and a gain of 573 percent, but the stock has more room for healthy gains.
Sagicor Group returns to the TOP10 Main Market and Stationery & Office Supplies returns to the Junior Market listing after an earnings upgrade, following a review of the forecasted numbers as the company continues to recover to pre-Covid-19 sales and Fontana dropped out with a 4 percent rise, but has much more room to grow in 2022.
Junior Market Elite Diagnostic gained 10 percent to $3.50, Honey Bun rose 7 percent. AMG Packaging lost 10 percent to end at $3.05, Lasco Financial lost 8 percent, Caribbean Assurance Brokers fell 7 percent and General Accident slipped 5 percent.
The week ended with the supplies for some stocks becoming very limited, this applies to Access and Radio Jamaica. Newly listed Spur Tree Spices came in for profit taking on Thursday and Friday after the price peaked at $2.75 and closed the week at $2.15 a fall of 22 percent from the peak, which suggests suggesting more room for decline before the price bottoms. That could take it to around $1.95 based on declines from peak to through of some previous IPOs.
The sharp price movements in the Junior Market reduced the potential gains markedly, with the average increase projected for the TOP 10 Junior Market stocks now at 119 percent versus 122 percent last week.
The top three stocks are Lasco Distributors followed by Caribbean Assurance Brokers and Lasco Financial to gain between 131 and 150 percent, compared to 124 and 160 percent, previously.
The potential gains for Main Market stocks moved from 144 percent to this weeks’ 139 percent this week, with the top three stocks being Guardian Holdings followed by JMMB Group and Sygnus Credit Investments all projected to gain between 151 and 254 percent down from 161 and 257 percent last week.
After trading at a big discount to the Main Market for two years, the average PE for both the JSE primary markets have virtually merged around 16 times earnings multiple based on 2021 earnings, with the Junior Market looking poised to surpass the main Market soon. The difference in potential gains for both TOP10 listings shows the Junior Market with an average rise of 118 percent versus 139 percent for the Main Market. That is an indication that the Junior Market is priced slightly higher than the Main Market.
The Junior Market closed the week, with an average PE of 16 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings and is currently below the target of 20 and the average of 17 at the end of March last year based on 2020 earnings. The TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of a mere 9.2, with a 43 percent discount to that market’s average.
The Junior Market can gain 25 percent to March this year, based on an average PE of 20 and 6 percent based on an average PE of 17. Twelve stocks representing 29 percent of all Junior Market stocks with positive earnings are trading at or above this level averaging 25.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market is 16.5 just 15 percent less than the PE of 19 at the end of March and 21 percent below the target of 20 to March 2022. The Main Market TOP 10 average PE is 8.7 representing a 47 percent discount to the market and well below the potential of 20. A total of 14 stocks or 30 percent of the market trade at or above a PE of 19, with most over 20, for an average roundabout 25, suggesting that the accepted multiple is between 20 and 25 times the current year’s earnings.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list may or may not include the best companies in the market. 
ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings to highlight winners from the rest, allowing investors to focus on potential winning stocks and helping to remove emotional attachments to stocks that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on the possible increase for each company, considering the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
The Main Market 15 for Investment2022
The 15 Jamaica Stock Exchange Main Market companies that seem poised to score big in 2022 are shown below. As is the case in the past some of these stocks may do better than projected and some may not do a swell, others may take longer to deliver the returns depending on how investors react to new to come about the companies or the industry they operate in. an example of this is the financial sector that ICInsider.com gathers had some negative results from Jamaican bonds with the rise in interest rates and reduction in trading activity as interest rate changes in Jamaica and pending rate change in the overseas markets.
Radio Jamaica – Earnings per share is projected at 65 cents for the year to March 2023 but they should end up with 45 cents for the 2022 fiscal year. The stock rose sharply with a strong increase in volume, followed by strong June quarter profits, with the stock price hitting $4.80 at the peak in 2021.
Management has done an excellent job in turning around the operations in 2020 and the group is benefitting from a leaner operation as well as a boost in revenues in 2021 and beyond. With growth expected in the local economy over the next several years, revenues and profit should continue to hit new record levels. In addition, management continues to focus on increased efficiency, implementation of new technology in various aspects of the operation that will drive growth and profit. There are plans to extract revenues out of other assets that are not readily visible to the general public currently. Not to be missed is the impact an improving economy will have on increasing revenues as businesses increase advertising spend. Futuristically, with the digitization of the network, the company will be in a position to provide internet facilities to its customers as an additional potential income stream.
Berger Paints
Berger Paints – Earnings per share is projected at $2.25 for 2022. The stock is not every bodies’ favourite, but the company is coming back into its own and benefitting from rapid expansion in the construction sector. Expect continued growth to take place as it benefits from the booming housing market locally.
Guardian Holdings – Earnings per share is projected at J$90 for 2022. This stock has been beaten down in the Jamaican market, but it is selling at a much higher price in Trinidad. It is a very good company but has never gotten the valuation that it deserves. They are expected to continue to show profit growth which may falter from time to time based on the nature of their asset base and income stream. The decision of the directors to hold foolishly to the limited number of issued shares is hurting the price badly but they will learn that it is not in the best interest of investors to continue to do so. At that time the stocks will perform better.
JMMB Group – Earnings per share is projected at $7 for the year to March 2023. It is one of the more undervalued stocks on the market, the price is about 6 times earnings. The company has a great deal of room for above average growth in the future. The group’s exposure to doing business in the Dominican Republic is a huge market of 11 million relative to Jamaica, where it can expand in a major way, either by acquisitions or just expanding the current footprints. Historically, the stock tends to move sideways until early summer, if that holds there may be time to focus elsewhere and return to this one. Investors should think long about this one. The company gets permission to buy back shares and the directors set later in the second quarter this year to start doing that and it could mop a lot of selling pressure.
JMMB
Sygnus Credit Investment – Earnings per share is projected at $2.60 for the year to June 2023. At a PE ratio of 5.5 2023 earnings the stock is undervalued and is so based likely 2022 earnings of less than a PE of 10. It operates in a sector that is not well known to the investing public, but that is where above average gains can be made. Management is on target to extract optimal gains from the operations. An example of this is when they raise funds before listing, the planned rate of return was around 8 percent now in the range of 12 percent. The company announced the acquisition of a credit investment company in Puerto Rico that should close later in the year. This will help drive revenues and profit as it broadens its reach and be in a position to attract more capital to allow for greater expansion.
Sterling Investments – Earnings per share is projected at 45 cents for the year to December 2022. The stock is seriously undervalued but investors don’t care much about this one seeing it more as a dividend provider than one with capital growth potential. Earnings should approach 40 cents for 2021 and be higher in 2022. Revenues and profits will benefit from higher interest rates locally and overseas in 2022 that will enhance profitability.
In the year just ended, revenues totaled $185 million for the first nine months, 8.6 percent higher than the $170 million earned for the same period in 2020, driven primarily by increases in interest income and gains on the sale of debt securities. Total foreign exchange gains declined year on year, from $80 million for the 9 months ended September 2020 to $55 million for the nine months to September 2021 and seem set to reverse in the final quarter of the year. Net income totaled $105 million for the first months of 2021, higher by 10.9 percent than the $94 million for the same period in 2020.
Caribbean Producers traded 52 weeks’ high during the week following a near US$2 quarterly profit.
Caribbean Producers – Earnings per share is projected at J$2 for the year to June 2023. Cost cutting and a sharp rebound in the tourism sector with visitor arrivals just 20 percent down on November 2019 numbers augur very well for increased income and profit and the stock that was one of ICInsider.com’s 2021 picks with a 435 percent increase since the start of 2021. ICInsider.com puts the stock price at $40 for 2022 as the company reports record profits and completes the acquisition of an overseas business during the year. Investors should look to a big bounce in the December quarterly profits that should triple the US$1.6 million profit made in the September quarter as revenues for the last quarter of 2021 come in around US$35 million compared to US$25 million for the September quarter.
Caribbean Cement – Earnings per share is projected at $10 for 2022. The company was on target to earn around $8 per share last year but lower sales in the September quarter, due partly to the impact of several days when Jamaicans were not allowed to leave home and a very rainy period reduced sales volume. The stock was trading around the $115 range before the release of the third quarter results was knocked down to trade around the $100 level. The company announced a proposal for a management fee levy by Cemex at which time sellers pushed the price to the low $70 level. The selloff seems overdone, with the company having good prospects to go on to deliver good profits for investors as it benefits from the boom now taking place in the building industry.
This sector is set to continue to grow with government fiscal operations creating more space for the private sector thus taking pressure off interest rates and helping to keep them low to provide a continual stimulus for the sector and the wider economy.
VM Investments – Earnings per share is projected at 80 cents for 2022. The company had good results up to the September quarter, with revenues climbing a strong 33 percent for the September quarter and year to date and profit surging 82 percent in the third quarter and 69 percent year to date. One gather that many financial institutions had negative effects from the changes in interest rates during the December quarter as trading activities slowed thus generating less fee income than previously. The group is set to acquire a pool of mutual funds in the Eastern Caribbean with net assets around J$1.6 billion that will generate increased management fees as the company continues to look for growth going forward.
Audrey Tugwell Henry Scotia group’s CEO
Scotia Group -Earnings per share is projected at $3.65 for the year to October 2022. The group has been focusing on restructuring its operations to fit the new way of banking that relies less on physical branches than before. That has led to some branch closures and changes to services provided. This will result in reduced operating costs that will start to show in the current year.
The advent of Covid-19 in 2020 led to increased nonperforming loan provisions and a contraction in lending, with loans net of loan provisioning, falling from $221 billion in October 2020 to $209 billion in 2021 and declining from $216 billion at the end of July 2021. The fall in the loan growth should be reversed in 2022 with expansion in the local economy and continued buoyancy in the building market. Additionally, interest rates were kept to a minimum in the local economy that result in reduced interest income but with the Bank of Jamaica hike rates from half a percent to the range of 4 percent, the group will generate much increase in interest income. The increased rates could add around $9 billion to revenues in a full year and increase profit.
Investors should be focusing on the medium term prospects than on the recent past that was negatively affected by short term developments that won’t last.
PanJam Investment – Earnings per share is projected at $8 for the year. A diversified group, with focus on the property market commercial and more recently the hotel sector, liquid investments managed directly by themselves and through its 30 percent associate, Sagicor Group. Investment in the stock is likely to deliver good long term returns, but the stock seems undervalued currently with quite a bit of upside potential.
For the quarter ending September last year, profit attributable to shareholders amounted to $2.5 billion, up from $1.5 billion in 2020 and $4.8 billion for the nine months versus $2 billion in 2020, resulting in Earnings per stock unit for the quarter of $2.33 and $4.52 for the nine that should push the full year results around $7 placing the stock that traded at $66 at the end of December as undervalued at a PE of 9.6 compared to the market average of just over 16.
Christopher Williams, Proven Investments CEO.
Proven Investments – Earnings per share is projected at 0.28 US cents for the year to March 2023. Proven stock has not performed over the past year but it could do so this year as acquisitions made recently, starts to contribute to improvement in revenues and profit. Investors would recall that the company raised fresh capital in late 2020 amounting to US$29 million in addition to sums raised a year or two before that was not fully utilized to acquire new business that would deliver a rate of return on investment that was much greater than cash funds. During the last year, the company closed on some acquisitions that are set to contribute to increased profits and enhanced earnings per share. The company also plans to rationalize some of the geographically diverse holdings to generate economies of scale and thus improve profitability further.
Grace Kennedy – Earnings per share is projected at $12 for the year. Earnings of $12 may appear steep, but that is possible, with continued growth in the food division and recovery in the financial sector as well as strong economic recovery in the main markets it operates in. regardless the stock is currently undervalued and will be a good vehicle for long term growth.
QWI Investments – Earnings per share is projected at 88 cents for the year to September 2022. The numbers appear rich but ICInsider.com expects Access Financial Services to come into its own in the current year and drive its stock price well into the $50 region or more and along with other excellent holdings of QWI that are poised to deliver great returns during the year. The stock was one of the better performers on the Main Market last year with a rise of 14 percent and the NAV increasing 21.5 percent. Last year NCB Group had a block of shares on sale that pressured the price for months but those are taken out and the company may be in a position to buy back shares as such 2022 is likely to be a year of improving fortunes.
Christopher Levy – Jamaica Broilers President and Chief Executive.
Jamaica Broilers – Earnings per share is projected at $3 for the year to April 2023. The group has been expanding with a good degree of focus on the North American market.
For the year to October, last year’s group revenues for the six months amounted to $35.8 billion, 35 percent higher than the $26.5 billion achieved in the corresponding six months of the previous year. Gross profit for the six months increased less than the growth in revenues at 14 percent to $7.3 billion, Gross profit as a percentage of sales declined from 24 percent in the prior year to 20 percent. The decline is primarily attributable to increased input costs that were partially mitigated by the significant growth in the US business. For the six months ended 30 October 2021, the net profit after tax was $872 million, a 21 percent decrease versus the corresponding period in the prior year. The decrease is primarily due to foreign exchange gains of $290 million in the previous year, including in finance costs, compared to foreign exchange losses of $70 million in the current year. The prior year’s gains were mainly in the Haiti Operations where the Haitian Gourdes experienced significant revaluation against the US dollar. Operating profit of $1.7 billion was aligned with the prior year.
Junior Market investors having a blast
With just two weeks of the new year, Junior Market stocks are hot with the market index gaining just 1.2 percent year to date, but the index does not give a full picture of what is happening. In 2021 the market index rose just under 30 percent, already the gains in four stocks now exceed that performance.
AMG Packaging hits a 52 weeks intraday high of $3.90 last week is up a stunning 55 percent to the end of the week at $3.40. The company reported a 146 percent rise in profit for their first quarter and the price is expected to surge this week. KLE Group is up 42 percent with the price being driven by the expectation that the company will pull in a tidy sum by ICInsider.com estimate could be $50-100 million from their north coast joint venture development during the course of the year. Newly listed Spur Tree Spices is up 32 percent on its first day of listing. With demand for the stock around 150 million units on the bid above $1.30 to $1.32 on Friday just before the close, with very little supply up to $2, so far, investors can expect to see another big hike in this stock’s price. Caribbean Brokers is up 27 percent on top of the 27 percent rise in late 2021 following the release of a big jump in profits over 2020 for the nine months to September. Dolphin Cove is up 27 percent to Friday at $19.05 but the stock traded up to $23.50 in the past week and is expected to rise sharply higher in 2021 as revenues and profits recovery as the tourism trade bounces back strongly in 2021 to match 2019 numbers or close to them.
3 new ICTOP10 listings as Spur Tree exists
The Junior Market ICTOP10 stocks have three new listings in a week that saw Spur Tree Spices trading for the first time on Friday with the price climbing to $1.32 for a rise of 32 percent since the Initial Public offer at the end of 2021, there are no new Main Market listings.
Other stocks that were in the spotlight this past week were ones that lasted off to record new all-time highs and include AMG Packaging, Caribbean Assurance Brokers, Caribbean Producers and Dolphin Cove a TOP10 contender up to the week ending December 2, also hit a 52 weeks’ high of $23.50 this past week to be up more than 100% since it came into the top flight in August last year at $9.86.
With the rise in the price of Spur Tree Spices, the stock is one of four to move out of the TOP10, followed by Medical Disposables that 16 percent for the week and Caribbean Cream that reported terrible third quarter results with a loss being made in the period as revenues climbed 14 percent in the quarter. Coming into the TOP10 are Lumber Depot, Fontana and General Accident.
Junior Market, AMG Packaging rose a strong 45 percent, ahead of the first quarter results to November that showed profit after tax jumping a big 146 percent over 2020. Investors can expect more gains to come this coming week as the stock traded up $3.90 last week. Caribbean Assurance Brokers climbed to a new 52 weeks’ high during the week and closed $3.12 up 26 percent, Access Financial Services continues to seesaw and recovered 17 percent to $20 this past week and Elite Diagnostic gained 8 percent to $3.18.
The sharp price movements in the Junior Market reduced the potential gains markedly, with the average gains projected for the TOP 10 Junior Market stocks now 122 percent versus 148 percent last week.
The top three stocks are Access Financial Services followed by Lasco Distributors and Caribbean Assurance Brokers can gain between 124 and 160 percent, sharply down from 182 and 204 percent, previously.
Major Main Market TOP10 moving stocks are Caribbean Producers up 7 percent, to $15.99 and Radio Jamaica rallying 7 percent to $3.45 as increased buying interest came in for the stock.
The potential gains for Main Market stocks moved from 146 percent to this weeks’ 144 percent this week, with top three Main Market stocks being Guardian Holdings followed by JMMB Group and Radio Jamaica all projected to gain between 161 and 257 percent up from 199 and 258 percent last week.
The Junior Market closed the week, with an average PE of 14.7 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings and is currently well below the target of 20 and the average of 17 at the end of March this year based on 2020 earnings. 
The TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of a mere 9.1, with a 38 percent discount to that market’s average.
The Junior Market can gain 36 percent to March this year, based on an average PE of 20 and 16 percent based on an average PE of 17. Eleven stocks representing 26 percent of all Junior Market stocks with positive earnings are trading at or above this level averaging 25.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market is 16.4, just 16 percent less than the PE of 19 at the end of March and 22 percent below the target of 20 to March 2022. The Main Market TOP 10 average PE is 8.5 representing a 48 percent discount to the market and well below the potential of 20. A total of 14 stocks or 30 percent of the market trade at or above a PE of 19, with most over 20, for an average roundabout 25, suggesting that the accepted multiple is between 20 and 25 times the current year’s earnings.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list may or may not include the best companies in the market. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings to highlight winners from the rest, allowing investors to focus on potential winning stocks and helping to remove emotional attachments to stocks that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on the possible increase for each company, considering the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
30% gain for Spur Tree Spices
Shares in Spur Tree Spices started trading this morning at $1.30, with a mere 3 shares changing hands as the newly listed Junior Market stock attracts huge demand, with 389 bids posted ahead of the market’s opening, ranging from $1 to a high of $1.30, with demand totaling 6.46 million units at $1.30.
An indication of demand to buy below $1.30, is as follows; 527,000 units at $1.29, a total of 3.9 million shares at $1.25 and 3.6 million at $1.20. Sell orders start at $1.50 with 12,500 followed 1,500 units at $1.70, 26,000 at $1.80 56000 at $1.99 and 107,000 at $2 with other reasonable offers going up $3.20.
Under the stock exchange rules, trading in the stock is now frozen until 10.30 this morning and cannot trade at a higher price than $1.30 today. Following the reopening of the stocks for trading, after trading was frozen, bids have come in for more than 36 million units at $1.32, over 23 million at $1.31 and 38.46 million at $1.30.
The movement in the stock helped push the Junior Market Index over the 3,500 mark for the first time since early October 2019.
Profit drop at Elite but watch this stock
Revenue of $118 million for the first quarter in 2020 fell 7 percent to $110 million in the first quarter to September 2021, resulting in a loss of $10.3 million compared to a profit of $16.7 million the previous year for Elite Diagnostic.
Reduced revenues impacted profit margin with a decline to 61.4 percent from 66.25 percent in 2020 and from 63.3 percent for the fiscal year to June. Input cost climbed 6 percent to $42 million from $40 million and gross profit fell 14 percent to $67 million from $78 million.
On the surface, the last reported results for the company may drive fear into the minds of investors but that would lead to a miss of potentially profitable investment for the future. “Net profit was impacted by increased administrative expenses, depreciation and foreign exchange losses”, management advised shareholders in their commentary on the results.
Elite Diagnostics
The report to shareholders continued, “revenue was affected by Covid-19 with reduction of operating hours and reduced procedures. Currently, the company’s operational hours are back to normal. An unusually lengthy breakdown of the CT also impacted our revenues during the quarter. Along with our regular preventative maintenance of the machines, the company has invested in equipment and parts to reduce some of the downtimes of the machine breakdowns”.
“The St Ann location revenue is increasing month over month since all modalities became operational in the first quarter of 2020. The company is cautiously optimistic as the effects of Covid-19 more negatively impact the rural areas of the country. The company continues to see steady demand for imaging services at all locations.”
Administrative expenses rose 13.5 percent to $46 million in the quarter from $40 million and depreciation jumped 44 percent to $25 million from $17.4 million in 2020. Finance cost was steady at $10 million, while foreign exchange movement resulted in a $3 million swing from a surplus of $1 million in 2020 to a loss of $2 million in 2021.
In spite of the loss incurred in the quarter, gross cash flow was positive with inflows of $15 million, down from $28 million in 2020. Additions to fixed assets offset by loan inflows utilized just over $15 million as net cash outflow for the period ended at $503,581. At the end of September, shareholders’ equity stood at $449 million, long term loans at $209 million and short term loans at $10 million. Current assets ended at $679 million, including trade and other receivables of $44 million, cash and bank balances of $39 million. Current liabilities ended the period at just $20 million, with net current assets ending at $659 million.
The results ended with earnings per share being a loss of 3 cents for the quarter, down from 4 cents for the quarter in the prior year. Based on the latest results, most investors would be looking elsewhere for investment opportunities. In doing so, they could miss one of the biggest winners in 2022. IC Insider.com forecasts 30 cents per share for the fiscal year ending June 2022, with a PE of 10 times the current year’s earnings based on the price of $3.05 the stock traded at the Jamaica Stock Exchange Junior Market. The company has more room for revenue growth from the addition of new equipment, continued growth in the relatively new St Ann location and additional branches in the future.
Drax Hall branch of Elite.
The company paid a dividend of 9 cents in October this year 2021. Net asset value is $1.29, with the stock selling at just over 2.4 times book value.
Reporting to shareholders in the annual report for the year to June, the chairman, Steven Gooden, stated, “we have been fortunate to see an increased demand for imaging services and were prudent to have sought to capitalize on this demand – through the acquisition of new equipment. We will continue to pursue this growth strategy by installing a new MRI system at the Liguanea branch, which we anticipate will be operational beginning early 2022. This new machine, we expect, will serve to reduce the company’s operating hours and thereby its related expenses. Additionally, with the St Ann branch issues finally resolved, the location is now operating at the desired capacity. Looking ahead, the near to medium term holds the classic combination of challenge and opportunity.On the one hand, we see continued challenges in terms of rising prices, compounded by the depreciation of the local currency; the company pays all its rent and purchases equipment and supplies from overseas in US dollar, so any depreciation in the dollar will affect the bottom line. On the other hand, we also see our cash flows remaining stable, if not strong, amid the continued high demand for our services. The demand is so strong that, were it not for dealing with the issues associated with the Drax Hall branch, the company might well have advanced plans for another branch. We intend to approach growing the company’s footprint with alacrity and all seriousness in the coming year”.
