The Junior Market could gain 60% in 2022

The Junior Market continues to offer opportunities for supper stock performance in 2022 with an average PE for the market at 9 times 2022 earnings versus close to 15 at the end of 2021, and offering a potential gain of more than 60 percent to the end of 2022. There are 26 Junior Market stocks that can double in 2022.
The market is technically at a support level that is steering the index upwards, more importantly, it is caught in a triangular formation that is set to push the market sharply upwards once it breaks out, which is not far off. The market is also trading in a channel that goes back to May 2020 and is pointing to a record high of more than 4,000 points in a few months.
Last year finished with a number of stocks trading at or above 20 times earnings in the Junior Market if that level of valuation continues into 2022 then the gain in the market could exceed the above potential gains.
The market will continue to benefit from the recovery of some of the companies that suffered major fallout due to the restrictions placed on operations as a result of the COVID19 epidemic in 2020 into 2021. Stocks that could benefit in a big way are, Access Financial, Main Event, Everything Fresh, Express Catering, Knutsford Express, Jetcon Corporation, Dolphin Cove and Stationery and Office Supplies.
Access FinancialEarnings per share are projected at $4.80 for the year to March 2023 and $2.60 for the 2022 fiscal year to March. The company showed signs of recovery from the beating taken in 2020 and 2021 as a result of steep provisioning for doubtful loans and a slowdown in lending. That situation started to reverse in 2021 up to September with loans net of doubtful loans up to $4.38 billion versus $3.9 at the end of September 2020. Revenues and profit in 2021 tripled the September 2020 quarter and the 2020 half year results. This trend is expected to gather pace in 2022 and beyond. See full article on the company recently published.
AMG Packaging – Earnings per share is projected at 35 cents for the year to August 2022 as new machinery facilitates cutting costs and creating more flexibility in the manufacturing operations. See full article on the company recently published.
Caribbean Brokers – Earnings per share is projected at 40 cents for 2022. The company reported strong earnings in the September quarter, with EPS at 41 cents for the quarter and 33 cents for the nine months. The company tends to get the bulk of its income in short periods with the other quarters reflecting relatively lower income that does not cover the cost. Unfortunately, the company failed to provide investors with appropriate information to fully glean what the results will mean for the full year and beyond. The end result is that the stock has suffered from investors’ interest when it really should have surged well over $4 per share, based on the latest results and what can be expected for the full year.
Elite Diagnostic – Earnings per share are projected at 80 cents for the year to June 2023. The stock is under pressure but that is due to investors not paying adequate attention to what the company is doing and the improvement in sales, quarter over quarter as well as the strong cash flow it’s generating. See full article on the company recently published.
Medical Disposables – Earnings per share are projected at $1.50 cents for the year to March 2023.

Technical indicators for the Junior Market are pointing to a record high of more than 4,000 points in a few months.

Profit after taxation surged 455 percent to $21.5 million for the second quarter to September from a loss of $6 million in 2020. For the year to date, profit after tax spiked 458 percent to $47 million, up from a loss of $13 million in 2020. Income from sales jumped 49 percent to $936 million for the September quarter, up from $630 million in 2020 and climbed 42 percent for the six months ended September 2021 to $1.62 billion, from $1.14 billion in the prior year. The acquisition of majority ownership of Cornwall Enterprises along with new distributorships helped in fueling the sales surge. See full article on the company recently published
Caribbean Cream – Earnings per share is projected at $1.30 cents for the year February 2023 from 65 cents projected for the 2021 fiscal year. Management is building an enterprise that can go up against the competition successfully and deliver superior returns for shareholders. They have cut costs in the past two years and grew their market reach by setting up a distribution depot in the Ocho Rios region that helped to push sales. The implementation of their own power generating plant will lead to a reduction of energy and other utility costs. Excluding the slowdown in sales in the August quarter when the government introduced no movement days, sales increase is been robust and is expected to be on track again for the second half of the year into the 2023 fiscal year.
Dolphin Cove – Earnings per share is projected at $3 for this year and $1.35 for 2021.  This company is in a period of major recovery with profit surging and set to get even better with the tourism industry rebounding strongly and closing in on 2019 arrivals.  See full article on the company recently published.
Spur Tree Spices – Earnings per share is projected at 19 cents for this year.  A recent IPO, this stock is set to do extremely well over the next few years. Expect local sales to surge as a result of the publicity they received due to the IPO.  See full article on the company recently published.
Stationery and Office Supplies – Earnings per share is projected at 95 cents for the current year and reflect a full recovery from the fall out of the Covid19 disruption to sales.  The company has made major strides since 2020 when sales were badly affected by the shutdown of businesses and schools. That has changed and the company posted a 175 percent increase in pre-tax profit of $78 million versus $29 million for the nine months to September 2020, from a 13.5 percent rise in revenues. Earnings per share for the third Quarter of 2021 was 8 cents, compared to 3 cents in 2020. For the 9 months ended September 2021 earnings per share was up to 31 cents from 11 cents in 2020. reports are that the company had the best four quarter in its history and the performance seems to have carried over into 2022 and should continue to be robust with opening and expansion in the wider economy.
Lasco Distributors – Earnings per share is projected at 50 cents for the year to March 2023.  For the half year to September, revenues rose 15 percent to $11.6 billion and profit increased 6 percent to $615 million as margins were squeezed in the period from higher input cost, followed by delayed price increase. With price adjustments since implemented, margins should increase and result in higher profits. Revenues should pick up as tourist traffic rose sharply throughout the year and schools are now back in operations both activities will impact revenues positively.
With earnings per share of 14 cents for the half year, full year earnings should exceed 30 cents making the stock undervalued at $3.45 with a PE of 11, versus the market average of just over 14.
The company has no borrowed funds and possesses $2.8 billion in cash funds, with annual gross cash flows of over $1.2 billion.
Everything Fresh – Earnings per share is projected at 15 cents for the year. The company seems to have turned the corner with a small profit in the September quarter. Importantly, gross cash flow for the nine months to September was positive at $15 million despite a loss of $20 million. The hotel sector is enjoying a strong rise in visitor arrivals with December last year down 24 percent compared to 2019 compared to a fall of 45 percent for 2021 versus 2019 preliminary data shows, this is a very positive development for the company going forward. The current year should see an even greater number of visitors that should better the performance in December. This is good news for a company that markets the bulk of sales to that sector.
Lasco Financial – Earnings per share is projected at 45 cents for the year March 2023. Net Profit for the second quarter ended at $134 million compared with $30 million in the similar period of 2020. The second quarter suffered revenue reduction from $617 million in 2020 to $554 million in 2021, due to disruption in business during the period as a result of no movement days, while cost rose from $400 million to $424 million leaving profit after tax at $59 million from $136 million in 2020. Earnings per share ended September at 10.5 cents and that should climb sharply in the second half with the impact of the high volume Christmas period having a positive impact. The company has cash funds of $1.7 billion at the end of the period as they curtailed lending.
Lasco Manufacturing – Earnings per share is projected at 60 cents for the year March 2023. For the half year to September, revenues rose 13 percent over the $4.1 billion generated in 2020 to $4.65 billion and profit popped 6 percent to $782 million, but the second quarter saw profit falling 3.8 percent to $380 million from revenues that increased 2.7 percent to $2.34 billion. Earnings per share came in at 19 cents for the half year on target for around 40-45 cents for the full year as margins increase based on price adjustments.
Cash on hand stood at $1.8 billion with borrowings at $600 million.
General Accident – Earnings per share are projected at 80 cents for the year.

General Accident spreading wings

Net profit after tax of $351 million, was generated for the nine months to September up from $125 million in 2020, with earnings per share of 39 cents versus 14 cents in 2020. Profit in the third quarter was $177 million compared to just $12 million in 2020. Earnings per share in the September quarter was 19 cents.
The company is in an expansion mode, with the establishment of operations in Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago, with both operations expected to break even in 2022. Higher interest rates locally and the ability to increase investment in higher yielding assets are measures expected to boost investment income in 2022.
Jetcon Corporation – Earnings per share is projected at 15 cents for the year but don’t be surprised it ends as high as 25 cents, depending on how rapid sales increase becomes. On a recovery path from the pandemic slump in 2020, revenues to September 2021 was up 30 percent but and should end the year above that level based on what the company reported in the third quarter, that sales for the fourth quarter are strong, with units sold in November back at regular pre-pandemic levels and already exceeded sales for the third quarter, at $196 million with the upward swing continuing into December, and with increased bookings to date. The improved sales position in the final quarter should result in an increased gross profit margin and a better net position than in 2020.
The above developments augur well for 2022 that should see revenues climbing appreciably again, with growth of 50 percent not out of the picture. If that were to happen it could lift profit margins closer to 20 percent from much lower levels in 2020 and 2021.
Bonus Pick
Honey Bun is our bonus pick for the year. Earnings per share are projected at $1 for the year to September 2022, as revenues continue to climb at a healthy pace. Earnings may be too low for it to qualify for the TOP15, but the stock could double from its current price of $9.30 per share during the year.

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