Jetcon Corporation and ISP Finance have been added to the IC Insider BUY RATED list. The list continues to sport selections that have some room to grow before they reach the stage of maturing. Some have reached levels that look like they may be close to the top and stay there for a while and the may be just be rated hold than BUY RATED at this stage of the market’s rally in Jamaica.
The Trinidad based companies appear to be saddled by the effects of the recession on their performance.
There are now a few that were previously listed as BUY RATED have moved to Watch, as these stocks are likely to be market underperformers. If these are already owned then investors may want to hold on a little longer, buying into them now, while such a move could be profitable such investment may not be the smartest move at this time. At this stage of the Jamaican market it has become more challenging to continue to back some of the strong performers to date, as their valuation has risen and future gains will most likely come from gain in profit, unless the market revalues the PE ratios higher, a factor that is expected with lower interest rates likely in the months to follow.
Knutsford Express has been to Market Watch as it close to our target price of $24 at this time and while there is more growth to come with increased frequency slated for the north coast routes, increased profits going forward could slow considerably from recent strong gains. 
Sagicor Group has done well since we selected it, with an increase close to 150 percent plus dividends, the immediate future looks like the gains are going to slow compared to the growth since the start of 2015. In past bull market, investors gave it a big premium over the rest of the market. That is not so now, but could change as the current bull market continues it run.
Lasco Distributors that was moved to a hold is now back to a buy, since the price has pulled back to $5, the company will benefit from taking over the overseas distribution of all of the manufacturing company products. The inflows expected from the lawsuit with Pfizer should add to the company’s value when the courts agree the amount, which management puts at more than US$300 million.
AMG Packaging, Caribbean Cream and Paramount are all up more than 300 percent but expansion into new products should give revenues and profit a kick in the not too distant future for AMG and Paramount. Caribbean Cream full year results are due shortly and should exceed 55 cents per share as the company benefited from sharp drop in raw material cost.
Jamaica Stock Exchange is now a Watch as it seems close to fairly valued currently, but dividend yield could well push it higher. In addition, of note is that while trading levels have improved they are still well off from historical highs, so there could still be much more gains ahead later on.
Trinidad is in recession and the results of companies are showing it with pressure on profit particularly for companies that earn the bulk of their income in the twin island state. As a result prices have been declining for many of the companies on the Trinidad market with a few exceptions. With the exception of Trinidad Cement that is undervalued, a hold has been placed on Trinidad based listed stocks for the time being but investors should wait for TCL to settle before buying.
2 new BUY RATED stocks
3 new highs on TTSE
Unilever closed at a new 52 weeks high on Wednesday
At the close of the market, the Composite Index fell by 1.56 points to close at 1,159.15, the All T&T Index rose by just 0.62 points to close at 1,969.84 and the Cross Listed Index decreased by 0.50 points to end at 45.72.
Gains| Stocks increasing in price at the close are, Ansa McAL traded 900 shares to close with a gain of 1 cent at $67.06, Massy Holdings ended up with 380 units changing hands 15 cent higher at $64.25. Mora Ven Holdings, with 200 shares trading closed at a 52 weeks’ high of $14.98 as the price gained a cent. The stock was traded for the first time since April last year, according to data on the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange. National Flour Mills with 1,500 shares changing hands, closed with a gain of 10 cents at $2, for a new 52 weeks’ high. Point Lisas gained 1 cent to end at $3.81 with just 300 shares trading, Unilever Caribbean contributed 3,839 shares with a value of $254,724 and gained 21 cents to end at $66.36 for another r52 weeks’ high and West Indian Tobacco closed 2 cents up to $125.33 with 94 shares trading.
Declines| The stocks declining at the end of trading are, Clico Investment Fund which lost 5 cents to close at $22.50 with 7,150 shares trading, valued at $160,888. Grace Kennedy added 1,900 shares to close 2 cents lower at $3.55, National Commercial Bank contributing just 120 shares, 5 cents lower at $1.70 and JMMB Group with a volume of 100,000 shares being traded 3 cents lower, at 47 cents.Firm Trades| Stocks closing with prices unchanged at the end of trading are, Agostini’s ending with 1,100 shares trading, in closing at $17.25. First Citizens Bank trading 9,781 shares valued at $350,181 closed at $35.80, National Enterprises with 250 shares closed at $17.20, Prestige Holdings ended with just 10 shares changing hands at $9.90 and Scotiabank traded 50 units at $62.54.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator had 2 stocks with the bid higher than their last selling prices and 2 stocks with offers that were lower.
JSE profit surged – 2016 could be big
Jamaica Stock Exchange reported a huge jump in first quarter earnings showing profit of $87 million or 62 cents, up from a loss of $3 in 2014, after tax. Revenues jumped from $82 million to $253 million, on the back of 10 fold increase in cess, due to primarily to the transfer of ownership of the controlling interest in Scotia Group, from the Canadian parent, to one set up to own the Caribbean entities directly.
Total cess income jumped to $161 million compared to only $15 million. Access Financial managing director switched ownership of his shares to a company, resulted in a transaction over the exchange of $1 billion and Pan Jamaican Investments had a $1.3 billion transaction in March. While the latter two unusual transactions would have increased the cess around $12 million, the cess for Scotia Group is estimated by IC Insider at around $120 million, leaving around $40 million as cess from normal ongoing operational activities. Trading values grew by 27 percent in the first quarter, including the two transactions in March. Fee income which rose by 67 percent would have been partially impacted by the big one off transactions, but increased value traded and a slight increase in listing fees would also have helped.
In the second quarter to mid May trading has increased 333 percent to $2.6 billion, the amount is equal to the total value traded for the entire second in 2014. The increased value of trading will lead to increased fees. In the 2014 second quarter, income from cess was only $10 million and fee income $45.5 million. Not only will the cess rake in more funds from the increased volume of trading now on the way but also from an increase in the rate charged for cess over the 2014 level.
While the increased trading activity so far will lead to increased fees for the second quarter, the potential income will be no more than around $100-120 million and will be sufficient to produce a profit for the quarter and help in lifting profit for the full year beyond $1 per share.
Looking forward, with more unit trust schemes being set up there will be more demand for stocks to satisfy the demand of equity funds. The Stock Exchange is poised to take over repo trading and acting as the registrar for them and result in additional fee income is going in the not too distant future, also of great import is that rising stock values increases the base for listing fees to be levied in 2016.
The exchange has cash and investments of $500 million with a working capital ratio of 2:1 and equity of $650 million. The stock remains IC Insider BUY RATED and is now available at $3.50 which it traded at on Friday, but won’t remain that way forever and investors should be buying this one for big long-term gains.