GOJ’s program for reduction & growth

The principal objective of the Government of Jamaica’s programme is to reduce the national debt and raise the sustainable growth rate of our national output.

The governor of the Bank of Jamaica, Bryan Wynter, stated in a recent address at a JMA’s 2014 Economic Forum, that the Government has committed to implementing revenue, expenditure and debt management measures to ensure that the debt goes down in relation to GDP. This commitment entails the achievement of annual primary surpluses of 7.5% of GDP over the life of the programme. The governor went on to outline other measures that are to be put in place to achieve the main objectives.

“With this,” he stated, “the borrowing need of the Government has fallen sharply, which is leading to a steady reduction in the debt to GDP ratio to below 100% by 2020. Government intends to make the current fiscal responsibility framework stronger by developing binding fiscal rules. This will increase transparency, lock in the gains of fiscal consolidation and ensure that budgets will be sustainable even beyond the end of the four-year IMF agreement.

Image courtesy of arztsamui/FreeDigitalPhotos.net

Image courtesy of arztsamui/FreeDigitalPhotos.net

“A central plank of the programme is the implementation of structural reforms aimed at creating an environment supportive of economic growth. One of the main structural reforms to which the Government has committed is the improvement of the tax system, including tax administration.

“Fiscal incentives legislation was also passed in December which overhauls and simplifies decades of tax law to the advantage of productive businesses.

“To kick-start growth, the government has started to implement catalytic, strategic, public-private investments. Already, the government has initiated production in six agro-parks, aimed at import substitution. The objective is to develop a total of nine such parks by the end of 2014.

“The GOJ is also committed to improving the competitiveness of the economy through legislative and administrative changes. Additionally, amendments to the Companies Act were passed which streamline the business registration process through the use of a multi-purpose registration instrument. A bill to modernise our bankruptcy rules, the Insolvency Bill, was also tabled in Parliament.

“The Government is in the process of establishing a Port Community System to electronically integrate and streamline export and import procedures. It is also moving to establish more flexible work arrangements and improve access to skills training. Furthermore, initiatives to achieve energy diversification and conservation are in progress.

“Supporting these reforms will be the preservation of a stable macroeconomic environment through sound monetary and fiscal policies. Inflation is expected to decline over the medium term towards our long-run objective. This decline in inflation, in conjunction with a more competitive exchange rate, will foster increased price competitiveness of Jamaica’s exports of goods and services.

“Lower inflation will also allow Jamaican businesses to finance investments at lower interest rates. The reduction in fiscal deficits and the public debt will make more resources available to the productive sector and will complement Bank of Jamaica’s thrust to maintain single-digit inflation.

“The Government also committed to undertaking reforms which will increase the efficiency and competitiveness of the financial system and credit market. You may have seen in the media recently, where we committed to a timetable for raising the cap on investments in foreign securities from 5% of assets to at least 25% by end-2015 and removing it by end-2016, unless extraordinary circumstances require a reassessment. The drafting of Jamaica’s Omnibus Banking statute, which includes regulations to give consumers increased protection and to underwrite the regulatory basis for agency banking, is far advanced.

Investing600x250“We are confident that we will be successful with the December test both with respect to the structural benchmarks and the quantitative performance criteria. More importantly, the Government is already looking ahead to the coming fiscal year with a view to crafting policies and commitments aimed at further improving the business climate in Jamaica and securing stronger growth.

“The economy began its recovery during the September quarter, registering growth of 0.5 per cent. We expect that growth of a little under 1.0 per cent will materialise for the fiscal year, in line with our projections.

“As the economy stabilises, the fiscal and external balances improve and the debt ratios are brought down towards sustainable levels, we should see the Government being able to address more effectively important social and developmental issues such as education and training and crime and social peace.”

Related posts | Ministry confirms deficit wipe out | Major cost input for production in 2013 | 2013 inflation 9.7%, worse than 2012

Ministry confirms deficit wipe out

The Ministry of Finance is now confirming the Investor’s Choice forecast that the fiscal year deficit to March 2014 will be effectively wiped out due to the revenue measures put in place earlier in 2013.

The Ministry, in a review of its operations and the economy to October 2013, indicates that the deficit is now “projected at 0.1% of GDP or $1.28 billion, a significant improvement on the 0.5% of GDP budgeted”. The deficit was originally projected at $8.046 billion and would have been down from a deficit in 2013 of $54.6 billion.

The estimated fiscal deficit of 0.1% of GDP is the lowest since Fiscal year 1995/96, when Central government operations generated a fiscal surplus, the ministry in their review states.

The projected improvement will emanate from the reduction in interest costs below the amount originally budgeted.

Image courtesy of cooldesign/FreeDigitalPhotos.net

Image courtesy of cooldesign/FreeDigitalPhotos.net

The paper went on to state that “In spite of new tax measures that were implemented in 2013, there has been revenue shortfall. In an attempt to partially address the issue the Tax Administration Jamaica (TAJ) and Jamaica Customs Agency (JCA) have stepped up their administrative and operational activities, in an effort to keep collections in line with budget for the remainder of the year. While the actions are anticipated to yield positive results, they are not expected to be sufficient to reverse the revenue shortfall up to the end of October 2013. Within this context, the GOJ identified expenditure restraint measures of 0.5% of GDP, equivalent to $6,944.7mn, which will serve to ensure that the primary surplus remains on track with the programmed 7.5% of GDP target in the EFF. These adjustments will be reflected in Supplementary Estimates to be tabled in Parliament for approval in the final quarter of FY 2013/14.”

Related posts | Fiscal deficit improvement continues | November worse month for revenues

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2013 inflation 9.7%, worse than 2012

The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) has reported Jamaica’s inflation rate for December 2013 as 0.6 percent, which brings the 2013 calendar year inflation to 9.7 percent and 1.7 percentage points above the 8.0 percent recorded for 2012. Inflation is measured by the All Jamaica ‘All Divisions’ Consumer Price Index. The movement of the local currency, which suffered from a devaluation, played a role in the increase.

The division recording the highest movement for the calendar year 2013 was ‘Transport’ which increased by 20.4 percent due to increased bus fares in September. The ‘Communication’ division recorded the only decline, moving down by 4.2 percent as telecommunication rates fell during the year.

UpIncreasegraphAll divisions recorded increased movements for December. ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ moved up by 0.5 percent due mainly to increased prices in eggs and sugar; ‘Transport’ which moved up by a similar 0.5 percent due to the higher cost of petroleum and its related products and air fares; and ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ moving up by 0.7 percent, due to the higher cost for electricity. The movement from April was 6.8 percent as at December 2013.

All other divisions that make up the All Jamaica index recorded increases for December 2013. ‘Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ went up by 0.8 percent. ‘Furnishings Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance’ and ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ each increased by 0.7 percent. ‘Clothing and Footwear’ rose by 0.5 percent, ‘Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco’ 0.4 percent, ‘Recreation and Culture’ 0.3 percent and ‘Health’, 0.2 percent. There was no movement recorded for ‘Education’ and ‘Communication’.

The Index advanced in all three regions: Greater Kingston Metropolitan Area (GKMA), 0.7 percent, Other Urban Centres (OUC) and Rural Areas, 0.5 percent.

Related posts | Inflation drops sharply in November | Inflation high, lower than September

Is Jamaica’s business tax the highest?

“T&T ranks the best among Caribbean counties for business taxes. Jamaica not so good, since GCT (sales tax) is included” is the story heading of a Facebook post from a Caibjournal.com article compiled from a World Bank report.

The problem is that one has to be careful in making definitive statements as the comparisons may not be correct. First off, one would need to look at the overall tax situation in each country  to get a better picture. In Jamaica, a large part of the tourism sector is free from corporate taxes or because of large capital allowances, pays less. Most of the agricultural sector pays no corporation taxes at all. Data in Jamaica also shows that approximately 70-80 percent of taxes are paid mostly by the Jamaica Stock Exchange listed companies. Hence,  it is difficult to come to the conclusion that Jamaican companies pay as much taxes as the article suggests.

The reality is that after corporate taxes of 33⅓ percent on profits after capital allowances, payroll taxes are next in size. Other taxes are very small and would make no meaningful impact on the total tax collected apart from financial entities and a few others who can’t recover the full impact of GCT.

Since GCT is not direct a tax on the majority of corporations, this leaves payroll taxes that corporations are required to make a contribution. Even then, only the portion that the company absorbs is the true cost since payroll taxes are deducted from income before corporate taxes. It is difficult to see how the nominal tax rate of 33⅓ percent could hit 44.3% in Jamaica. Additionally, since 2013, some corporations pay 25 percent and some 30 percent.

The CaribJournal.com stated that “The World Bank defines the total tax rate as the “amount of taxes and mandatory contributions payable by businesses after accounting for allowable deductions and exemptions as a share of commercial profits. Taxes withheld, such as personal income tax, or taxes collected and remitted to tax authorities like VAT or sales tax, were excluded in the data”.

Jamaica may end being the country with the highest effective tax rate for some corporations but more details are needed to make this conclusion.

If the data on the various countries is close to reality, then there is a huge difference between Jamaica and Trinidad of 50 percent. If true, it explains why Jamaica finds it difficult to compete with Trinidad.

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Interest rate eases

Rates on the most recent Treasury Bills fell in the latest offering by the Government of Jamaica.

The rate for the January Treasury bill came out at 6.12 percent compared to 6.2522 percent in December. Investors on Wednesday, 15 January, applied to purchase $400 million 30 days Government of Jamaica Treasury Bills dated Friday, 17 January 2014. This resulted in the average yield of 6.11877 percent. However, yield went as high as 6.29577 percent. A total of $567,065,100 was submitted by applicants in their bid to obtain the instruments.

Related post | T-bill rates mixed at auction

BOP improvement for Q3 confirmed

Provisional data for the September 2013 quarter shows that there was a significant improvement in the current account deficit of Jamaica’s Balance of Payments. The outturn in the quarter reflected improvements on all sub-accounts. However, net private and official capital inflows were insufficient to finance the deficits on the current and capital accounts for the September 2013 quarter, which was funded by Bank of Jamaica from the net international reserves.

The central bank, in a release on the current account, stated that it “recorded a deficit of US$409 million for the period July to September 2013, an improvement of US$202 million over the corresponding period in 2012”. This outturn, the release stated, “reflected improvements on all sub-accounts but was primarily evident in a decline of US$146 million in the deficit on the merchandise trade sub-account, associated with a contraction of US$197 million in imports, there was a reduction of US$51.5 million in exports. The decline in imports mainly reflected reductions of US$132 million and US$73 million in expenditure on chemicals and mineral fuels, respectively. For exports, the fall was mainly due to lower earnings from chemicals, in particular, ethanol”.

For the quarter, there was a decline of US$8 million in the deficit on the income sub-account stemming mainly from a decrease of US$20 million in investment income outflows. The decline in investment income outflows was largely related to lower remittances of direct investment companies. With regard to the services sub-account, there was an increase of US$5 million in the surplus due principally to a decline in transportation charges as a result of the lower imports. The surplus on the current transfers sub-account increased by US$44 million reflecting growth of 6.2 per cent in gross remittance inflows.

Related post | Balance of payment improves

Statin confirms growth of 0.5%

The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) is confirming that the Jamaican economy recorded growth of 0.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2013 when compared to the similar quarter of 2012.

Earlier in the year, Statin reported that the Jamaican economy declined by 0.1 per cent in the second quarter and declined by 1.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2013. To achieve positive growth for the calendar year would require growth rate of nearly twice the performance of the third quarter or close to 1 percent. Quite a bit of the growth in the latest quarter is a recovery from the negative impact that Hurricane Sandy had on the economy, particularly the agricultural sector, rather than improved performance from ongoing economic activities.

Statin, the body changed with gathering economic and social data on behalf of Government of Jamaica, said the third quarter performance resulted mainly from a 2.2 per cent increase in output of the Goods Producing industries as the Services industries declined by 0.1 per cent.

Within the Goods Producing Industries, all industries except Manufacture recorded increased output levels. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing grew by 5.4 per cent and this was the first quarter of growth recorded by this industry since the passage of Hurricane Sandy. The Mining & Quarrying and Construction industries grew by 6.4 per cent and 2.1 per cent respectively. The Manufacture industry however, declined by 0.9 per cent.

There were mixed performances within the Services industries. Increased levels of output were recorded for Hotels & Restaurants (0.7 per cent), Finance & Insurance Services (0.3 per cent), Transport, Storage & Communication (0.2 per cent) and Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities (0.2 per cent). Industries that recorded lower levels of output were: Electricity & Water Supply (-3.5 per cent), Producers of Government Services (-0.2 per cent) and Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery & Equipment (-0.1 per cent). Other Services remained relatively unchanged during the period.

When compared with the second quarter of 2013, the economy grew by 0.8 per cent. This was due largely to a 3.2 per cent growth in the Goods Producing industries as the Services industries remained relatively unchanged.

Related posts | Economy declined 0.1% in Q2 | Businesses see J$ at $110 late 2014 | Inflation drops sharply in November

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November worse month for revenues

November 2013 was the worse month for Government of Jamaica revenue collections for the current fiscal year which started in April, coming in at $25.94 billion. The next lowest was August at $26.36 billion and October at $26.5 billion. The November collections were $2 billion short of the estimate of $28.55 billion forecasted by the Ministry of Finance when it presented the budget earlier in the year.

The shortfall in August was the worse reported as it was down by $6 billion compared to forecast. The best month was May which exceeded forecast by a billion dollars, all other months were short of budget. The data is reflecting a troubling trend of a likely shortfall going forward.

The reduction in the fiscal deficit that was at $9 billion at the end of October has been sharply cut and now stands at only $5.1 billion as the deficit for November that was planned at $1.3 billion hit $5.4 billion instead. Expenditure planned at $29.8 billion for the month ended at $31.3 billion instead, as payments on wages and programmes, climbed above the budgeted figures by $3.6 billion, to compound the impact of the revenue shortfall. The fiscal deficit sits at $24.9 billion versus $30 billion originally projected to November. Total revenues, which are $233 billion is up by a strong 10.6 percent over the 2012 period of $211 billion but is down by roughly nearly 3.5 percentage points. The budget called for an 18 percent rise in revenues for the fiscal year over that of 2013 to reach $407 billion with revenues to have risen by 14 percent up to November.

Jamaica_coat_of_arms_280X150The number of areas with improved revenues paled in comparison to those that under-performed as tax revenues fell short of forecast by $10.4 billion, partially offset by increased grants of $1.1 billion and non-tax revenues of $1.37 billion. Corporation Taxes delivered $1.1 billion more than planned by 8 percent; others to have performed ahead of forecast are Special Consumption Taxes by 7 percent with a surplus of $550 million; Motor Vehicle licenses 12.6 percent with a surplus of $191 million; Telephone Call Tax, 6 percent better with $246 million; Accommodation Tax up by $400 million or a huge 55 percent improvement and Travel Tax with an increase of 57 percent or $2.3 billion.

The underperformers overwhelmed the good performances with PAYE dropping $2.45 billion; tax on dividend, individuals and on interest falling by $2.5 billion; betting gaming was down $842 million; education tax by $935 million; Contractor’s levy by $305 million; Stamp Duty by $700 million and taxes on imported items by $7.7 billion as imports fell during the period.

Related posts | Fiscal deficit improvement continues | Govt set to wipe out deficit

Inflation drops sharply in November

The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) reported a slowdown in inflation for November compared with 0.9 percent in October and 1.03 percent in September.

According to the body charged with collecting and collating economic data on behalf of the Government of Jamaica, the All Jamaica ‘All Divisions’ Consumer Price Index for November 2013 was 209.9 reflecting an inflation rate of 0.5 percent when compared to the index of 209.0 for October. This upward movement was mainly the result of a 0.7 percent rise in the index for the most heavily weighted division, ‘Food’ & Non-Alcoholic Beverages’. The impact of this movement was however tempered by the 0.2 percent fall in the index for the second most heavily weighted division ‘Transport’. This was the only division to record a decline for the month, with lower petrol prices being the contributing factor. The index for the division ‘Housing , Water, Electricity Gas and Other Fuels’ rose by 0.2 percent, and there was a 0.3 percent advance in the index for ‘Education’ impacted mainly by an increase in the cost of examination fees.

Graph_paper_up280x150For the first 11 months of the calendar year 2013, the inflation rate was 9.1 percent. Year over year, inflation for November was 10.2 percent and for April-to-date the movement was 6.2 percent.

The other divisions that recorded increases in the All Jamaica ‘All Divisions’ index were: ‘Clothing and Footwear’ 0.7 percent, ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ and ‘Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ each recorded increases of 0.6 of percent,’ Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance’ 0.5 percent, Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco’ 0.4 percent, ‘Health’ 0.3 percent, and ‘Recreation and Culture 0.2 percent.

There were upward movements in all three regional indices: Greater Kingston Metropolitan Area 0.7 percent, Other Urban Centres recorded a movement of 0.4 percent and Rural Areas 0.4 percent.

Related posts | Inflation high, lower than September | Jamaica’s inflation jumps

Fiscal deficit improvement continues

The Jamaican government’s fiscal deficit projected at $28.78 billion is running below target at $19.55 billion, a savings of $9.2 billion up to October this year. The projection for the full fiscal year is deficit of $8 billion. The improved position is mainly due to a near $15 billion cut in payments partially offset by a $5.5 billion reduction in revenues.

Tax revenues were off by $6.7 billion and non-tax revenues were up by $1.3 billion. Major revenue shortfall came from PAYE $2.75 billion, tax on interest of $1.2 billion and custom duties, GCT and Special Consumption tax on international trade of $5.2 billion. There was an improvement in travel tax of $2.4 billion.

Interest cost was down by $5.4 billion and capital expenditure by $6.2 billion and there was a $2 billion savings on salaries and wages.

The deficit in October is $9.4 billion, some $2.3 billion better than the amount budgeted for, and compared to a surplus in September of $7.66 billion.  Revenues in October was $1.5 billion short of projections.