It is not always that main market stocks are more attractive buys than those in the junior market, but that is what is happening currently. Strong gains, in 2016 to end of January this year, in junior market companies, resulted in Jamaica Stock Exchange main market having stocks with better values than in the junior market.
The end result is that unlike other years when the junior market stocks tended to outperform those of in the main market by a ratio of 2 to 1, this year could see both markets gaining roughly the same.
The big question, of course, is what will be the accepted PE of the market? Currently, while the average for 2016 is 17 for the main market and the ratio based on 2017 estimated earnings is 11, with 11 stocks selling above this level, Jamaica Producers and Kingston Wharves have PE ratios over 30 times 2017 earnings.
The main market faces turbulence currently as the market is sitting just below a major resistance level around 243,000 points on the All Jamaica Index. If it can overcome this level, then it will encounter resistance around the 265,000 mark.
The TOP 10 list includes 4 financial sector stocks, two communication stocks and two from the manufacturing sector.
Cable & Wireless has made considerable progress in recent years, moving from major annual losses to a stage where they reported a small profit in fiscal year 2016 to March and should break even for the nine months to December, the new financial year end. Revenues have been climbing at double digit pace and should increase even more with the upturn in economic activity and with more persons being employed. The company recently raised rates on a number of its services that should help move revenues upwards. They have also made considerable recovery in their cellular customer base and have expanded it, generating increased revenues as a result. IC Insider.com forecast calls for a profit in 2017 with growth in 2018 as well.
On this basis, the stock is set to make solid gains. The only factor preventing that is a strong possibility that the parent company may move with an offer for the minority shares that would place a cap on the upside.
Radio Jamaica is under selling pressure as investors ignore the fundamentals and an improving economy that could result in increased profits and growth in the stock. The merger with the Gleaner was predicated a great deal on cost cutting. The group is doing just that and should benefit from a stronger marketing team and from increased advertising as businesses augment their advertising spend.
Caribbean Cement cut cost sharply in 2016 and saw growth in local sales for the first six months. However, closure of the plant for upgrading resulted in lost sales in the third quarter but sales recovered in the fourth quarter. Going into 2017, the cost savings should reduce operating cost and boost gross profit margins. Increased economic activity and lower cost of capital is leading to an uptick in the construction sector and consequently, an increase in demand for cement. The stock remains highly undervalued and has room for major gains ahead.
Barita is one of the top IC Insider’s stock for growth over the next 12 months in the main market.
Pulse Investments reported earnings of $1.35 last year and 32 cents for the September quarter that places the stock in the undervalued category even as the price climbed to $7.10 recently. It could go higher, but a bit of the earnings flow from revaluation surplus on property and that may cause some investors to discount the earnings. In a very bullish market, that may not matter much, for many investors. One positive, is that the cash flow statement shows cash inflows growing at a much higher level than in 2015.
Keith Duncan, Group Chief Executive Officer of JMMB.
Berger Paints had a very good run to December last year, with strong gains in profit as revenues grew attractively. Growth should continue into 2018 fiscal year, helped by increased building activity and an improving economy. Dividend payment should be high, thus boosting yields.
Scotia Investments should benefit in much the same way as Barita Investments. The investment bank reported earnings of $1.27 for the October quarter and IC Insider.com forecast is $4.96 for 2017. The increase should benefit from widening net interest income, as interest rates soften and more funds generated are added to the pool of interest earning pool as well as from growth in unit trust funds that will engender higher fee income, in addition to robust stock market activities that will also enhance fee income for the brokerage arm. On the negative side, the revaluation now taking place in the local currency could negatively affect earnings from trading in this area.
Carreras is one of the few stocks that have languished at the old price while many others have recorded active gains. The company just announced an interim payment of $2.20 bringing the payment since August last year to $5.40. The full year’s amount is likely to be in the order of $7.60 for a yield on the current price of 11.5 percent. This yield will not last as investors are going to eventually push it downward by bidding the price up as an income substitute. IC Insider’s forecast
is for earnings of $9 per share for the 2018 fiscal year. The stock may well languish at current levels for a while. The longer it stays the better for those investors who may want to add it to their portfolio.National Commercial Bank reported impressive profit results for their December quarter with a jump of 49 percent to $3.56 billion with earnings per share ending at $1.45, up from 96 cents in 2016. IC Insider.com forecast earnings of $8 per share for the current year. NCB declared an increase in its interim dividend payment from 50 cents in 2016 to 60 cents per ordinary stock unit payable in February. The payment represents 42.76 percent of the first quarter profits and is an indication of future payment.
Persons associated with this article may have an interest in the companies commented on.
Guardian Holdings rose in trading on the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange on Monday to hit a new 52 weeks’ high, but it was not the only stock to do so. Market momentum continued from Friday with 14 securities changing hands up from to 12 on Friday. 
Losses| Grace Kennedy was down 2 cents to close at $2.65 with an exchange of 117,880 units valued at $312,282, Prestige Holdings lost 15 cents, closing at $10.85 with 2,031 shares changing hands, infrequent trader, ReadyMix dropped 17 cents to 52 weeks’ low of $10.83, trading 1,200 units and Republic Financial Holdings slid to $106.74, a loss of $1.24 with 548 shares changing ownership.
The average trade for the day in the main market ended at 104,123 shares compared to an average of 198,939 units on Friday. For the month to date, an average of 177,355 shares traded, versus an average of units 250,588 units up to the prior trading day. January ended with an average of 592,602 units.
The average volume and value for the month to date ended at 83,886 units and $488,049 compared to 92,477 units and $532,178 to the previous day. The average volume and value for January, ended at 165,547 units and $884,749.
KLE Group ended with 189,950 units changing hands at $3, Lasco Distributors ended trading with 257,389 units changing hands and gained 66 cents to close at $7.96. Lasco Financial shed 36 cents with 1,229 shares changing hands to end at $3.50, Lasco Manufacturing with 47,216 units changing hands, closed with a rise of 4 cents at $5.24, Medical Disposables added 10 cents and closed at $6.10 with 66,063 shares changing hands. Paramount Trading closed at $3.05 with 50,000 shares changing hands, tTech closed trading with 64,339 units changing hands to end at 52 weeks’ high of $7.45 after rising 55 cents.
Company expansion| The best rate of growth in the economy for years is expected to continue, with prospects of 2.5 to 3 percent seemingly on the cards for 2017. Against this background, most companies appear set to benefit with increased sales. The real big gainers should come from those companies that are undergoing expansion. They will have a double benefit, that from the pickup in economic activity and from the expansion.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 11 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 4 with lower offers.
Pulse Investments gained 78 cents to close at a 52 weeks’ high of $7.10, trading 17,000 units. Radio Jamaica closed at $1.36, gaining 16 cents trading 105,008 shares, Sagicor Group lost 50 cents to close at $32.50 with 32,656 shares changing hands, Sagicor Real Estate fund closed at $10.20 for a loss of 30 cents with trades of 3,002,738 units, Scotia Group ended trading with a loss of $1 to close at $40, having traded 777,834 shares. Scotia Investments lost 50 cents, after trading 12,000 units and closed at $35, Supreme Ventures gained 20 cents with 23,824 shares traded and closed at $5.70, Proven Investments traded 194,000 ordinary shares, adding 3 cents to close at a 52 weeks high of 29 US cents and JMMB Group 7.5% preference share traded 177,438 units at $1.10.
Many of the big winners are expected to grow as profit increases and the Jamaica Stock Exchange PE ratio increases, to better reflect valuations, with the low level of interest rates now in the system. With a number of stocks priced at PE in excess of 20, it is not far fetched to see many others joining this level, which would mean a continuation of the recent bull run on stocks.
The junior market shot through the 2,900 points level with strong gains 67.79 points in trading on Friday, to end at a new closing high of 2,959.31, after 24 securities traded, with the prices of 19 rising and only 2 declining.
Blue Power jumped $3 to close with 1,200 shares changing hands at a 52 weeks’ high of $50, CAC 2000 traded 16,000 units at $6.10. Cargo Handlers traded 31,840 units to close at $22, Caribbean Cream exchanged 63,000 shares and gained 55 cents, to close at $7.80, Caribbean Producers rose 5 cents in trading 7,197 units at $4.50. Consolidated Bakeries shed 20 cents in trading 30,000 shares to close at 52 weeks’ high of $3.60. C2W Music rose 5 cents and ended at 45 cents with 25,000 shares changing hands, Derrimon Trading ended at a 52 weeks’ high of $7 with 40,400 shares changing hands, after rising by 55 cents, Dolphin Cove ended with a gain of 24 cents at $14.74 with 3,890 shares changing hands. General Accident gained 10 cents and closed trading with 71,641 shares at a 52 weeks’ high of $3.50. Honey Bun shed 24 cents and closed with 56,056 shares changing hands at $7.25, Jamaican Teas traded 37,450 shares to close at $8.60 after rising by 10 cents, Jetcon Corporation closed trading with 475,275 shares, to end with a gain of 8 cents at $10.50. Key Insurance traded 10,000 units to close at $3.50, after rising by 15 cents, KLE Group gained 5 cents and ended with 6,305 units changing hands at a 52 weeks’ high of $3, Lasco Distributors ended trading with 86,100 units changing hands and gained 10 cents to close at $7.30. 
Lasco Financial gained 11 cents with 287,245 shares changing hands to end at $3.86, Lasco Manufacturing with 44,900 units changing hands, closed with a rise of 8 cents at $5.20, Medical Disposables added 10 cents and closed at $6.10 with 66,063 shares changing hands. Paramount Trading closed at $3.05 after slipping 5 cents, with 136,500 shares changing hands, tTech closed trading with 7,599 units changing hands to end at $6.90 after rising 5 cents, Derrimon preference share, traded 49,750 units and fell 7 cents to end at $2.05 and Eppley 10% preference share, traded 14,815 units to close at $6.85 after rising 10 cents.
Trading levels trended up on the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange on Friday relative to Thursday’s activity. The market traded 12 securities compared to 9 on Thursday resulting in 3 stocks advancing, 4 declining and 5 unchanged. Two stocks ended at 52 weeks’ highs.
Scotia Investments was down 2 cents to $2.21 with 61,521 units traded, Scotiabank closed at $58.74, a loss of 1 cent with 10,000 units changing hands, valued at $587,400 and Trinidad & Tobago NGL ended trading at $22, losing 51 cents with trades of 12,541 units.
