The Jamaica Stock Exchange continues to struggle in the early morning session on Tuesday with low trading interest as some companies in the main market report profits that are at levels that do lend strength to the current prices. The market may also be showing uncertainty with the change in government as investors await clear signals of the economic direction of the new government.
After 75 minutes of the market opening, 34 securities traded, accounting for only 2,183,719 shares changing hands. A total of 15 stocks declined and 7 rose.
The all Jamaica Composite Index dived 1,901.51 points to 172,175.07, the JSE Market Index dropped 1,701.49 points to 154,997.79, the JSE combined index lost 1,568.71 points to 163,779.61 and the junior market index rose 3.94 points to 1,951.85.
Caribbean Cement fell $4 with 28,835 shares to trade at $20, after the company reported full year results to December last year with earnings of $1.82 after exceptional charges. Gleaner Company traded 990,620 and declined 32 cents after falling by 35 cents in yesterday morning session and now trades at $1.98. Jamaica Broilers fell $1 to $13.50 JMMB Group declined 42 cents to $10.58 the Jamaica Stock Exchange is down 50 cents to $23 and Mayberry Investments traded 401,938 units and lost 29 cents to $4.51 in response to 2015 results that melted away in the final quarter with heavy investment portfolio losses.
JSE’s 2nd day of big hits – Tuesday
GOJ January deficit widens
Government revenues fell and expenditure rose in December thus reducing the gains make in these areas, in the first nine months of the fiscal year. The fiscal surplus that was on target with the original plan has been cut by $5.7 billion and is now at $69.45 billion compared with a budgeted amount of $75.16 billion.
The decline in the primary surplus is in keeping with the reduction approved by the international Fund last year. The target was lower from 7.5 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 7.25 per cent for the remainder of the current fiscal year, freeing up approximately $4 billion to be spent and to 7 percent for the 2016/17 fiscal year.
For the period to January, tax revenues were ahead of target by $3.8 billion and is down from $6.6 billion from the end of 2015, interest cost that was down $4.8 billion to December, lost some of the savings, with it being $3.1 billion by January while the wages bill exceeded forecast by $3.7 billion in January having been $2.3 billion ahead of target up to December. Other expenditure that was underspend by $540 million to December is now over by $2.2 billion to January.
The fiscal deficit has climbed by $2.6 billion above forecast to $37.34 billion. Up to December the deficit was ahead of target by $5.8 billion at $25 billion.
Inflows from Bauxite Levy and grants continue to underperform with a shortfall of $5.2 billion to January.
Flat trading for juniors – Tuesday
General Accident closed at a new 52 weeks’ high on Tuesday
The junior market eked out a meagre gain on Tuesday although declining stocks exceeded advancing ones by a wide margin. The market gained a mere 0.08 points to end at 1,947.99 with 13 securities trading of which 8 declined and 4 advanced, including 1 of that traded at a 52 weeks’ high. The market ended with 534,537 units changing hands, valued at $3,813,759.
At the close, 2 securities ended with no bid and 6 securities had no stocks being offered for sale. There were 7 stocks closing with bids that were higher than their last selling prices and 2 ended with lower offers.
In trading, Access Financial declined by $1 in trading 2,550 units to close at $16.50, Blue Power rose by $1.70 with 188,655 units changing hands, to end at $11, after it posted profits of $25 million in the January quarter, $13 million more than the comparative period last year. Caribbean Cream lost 52 cents while trading 1,000 shares to close at $3.73. Caribbean Producers had 9,352 units changing hands to close a gain of 5 cents at $4.60, Consolidated Bakeries traded 16,000 units to close with a loss of 10 cents at $1.40, General Accident traded 5,000 units at a 52 weeks’ high of $3 with a gain of 20 cents.
Honey Bun traded 27,600 shares to gain 20 cents and close at $14, Jamaican Teas lost 10 cents and ended with 2,484 units changing hands at $7.60, KLE Group closed at $1.90 with 32,420 shares changing hands with a loss of 30 cents. Lasco Distributors closed with 108,550 units trading, to end at $5.50, Lasco Financial ended at $3.10 with 22,622 shares changing hands, after falling by 13 cents, Lasco Manufacturing ended trading with 118,104 shares and lost 10 cents to close at $4 and tTech traded 200 shares to close with a loss of 18 cents at $4.67.
Cement drops $5.50 – Monday
Caribbean Cement dropped $5.50 on Monday.
A total of 2,354,315 units valued at just $38,848,571 changed hands in all markets. The junior market accounted for 1,010,904 units changing hands, valued at $5,976,571.
Caribbean Cement shed $5.50 to end at $24.50 with 203,998 shares trading, being one of the main stocks to pull down the main market index on Monday with the company reporting lower revenues and profits in the December quarter after taking a hit with redundancy cost. The JSE Market Index suffered a fall of 670.56 points to 156,699.28 the all Jamaica Composite Index dropped 749.39 points to end at 174,076.58 and the JSE combined index dropped 707.90 points to close at 165,348.32.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading was 22 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 6 with lower offers.At the end of the market activities, Barita Investments traded 71,090 units and closed at $4, Cable and Wireless rose 5 cents as 27,035 units changed hands to close at $1.50, Carreras closed with a gain of 90 cents at $65, while trading 143,005 units. Gleaner Company fell 15 cents to close at $2.30 as 128,047 shares changed hands, Grace Kennedy ended with 44,179 shares trading to close at $84.50 after rising $2.50, Jamaica Broilers traded 65,926 units to close at $14.50. Jamaica Producers ended with 11,943 shares changing hands at $30,
Jamaica Stock Exchange traded 3,396 shares to end at $23.50, JMMB Group had 8,250 units changing hands and fell 80 cents to close at $11. Kingston Wharves had 3,000 shares trading with a fall of 25 cents at $11.19, National Commercial Bank had 19,822 shares changing hands to close at $41. Margaritaville Turks traded 400,300 shares to close with a loss of 0.5 US cents at 14.50 US cents, Sagicor Group rose 20 cents with 91,075 shares changing hands at $23.20, Sagicor Real Estate Fund with 5,000 shares changing hands at $11.50. Scotia Group had 16,801 shares changing hands, to close with a gain of $1.19 to end at $32, Supreme Ventures closed at $6 with 45,748 units changing hands and Proven Investments ordinary share traded 47,300 units at 22 US cents.
Juniors eased again on Monday
General Accident closed at a new 52 weeks’ high on Monday
The junior market lost some more ground again on Monday although advancing stocks exceeded declining ones. The market lost 8.37 points to end at 1,947.91 with 14 securities trading of which 4 declined and 5 advanced, including 1 of that traded at a 52 weeks’ high. The market ended with 1,010,904 units changing hands, valued at $5,976,571.
At the close, 2 securities ended with no bid and 6 securities had no stocks being offered for sale. There were 11 stocks closing with bids that were higher than their last selling prices and 3 ended with a lower offer.
In trading, Access Financial traded 4,000 units to close at $17.50, AMG Packaging rose by $1.40 with 223,936 units changing hands, to end at $13.10, C2W Music traded 20,636 units to close at 45 cents, Caribbean Cream gain 55 cents while trading 580 shares to close at $4.25. Caribbean Flavours traded 2,473 units at $8.60, Caribbean Producers had 18,386 units changing hands to close a loss of 45 cents at $4.55, Consolidated Bakeries traded 15,465 units at $1.50 after rising 10 cents but closed with an offer at $1.44. 
Dolphin Cove traded 582 shares to gain 33 cents and end at $15.95, General Accident traded 1,000 units at a 52 weeks’ high of $2.80 with a gain of 30 cents, Jamaican Teas ended with 1,364 units changing hands at $7.70, KLE closed at $2.20 with 1,270 shares changing hands with a loss of 30 cents. Lasco Distributors rose by 44 cents and closed with 52,455 units trading to end at $5.50, Lasco Financial ended at $3.23 with 45,300 shares changing hands, Lasco Manufacturing ended trading with 322,957 shares and lost 25 cents to close at $4.10 and Medical Disposables traded 300,500 shares to close at $3.50.
TTSE mostly up on Monday
Prestige Holdings brand – the stock traded at a high on Monday.
Trading activity recovered from the very low level on the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange on Friday to end on Monday, with 292,411 shares valued at $1,647,137 trading. The market ended with 10 active securities of which, 2 rose, 1 fell and 7 remained unchanged. One stock ended at a 52 weeks’ high.
The Composite Index advanced by 1.50 points to close at 1,159.56, the All T&T Index rose 3.48 points to close at 1,899.96 and the Cross Listed Index fell 0.07 points to close at 55.56.
IC bid-offer Indicator| The Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator has turned negative with 5 stocks with bids higher than the last selling price and 9 with offers that were lower.
Gains| Prestige Holdings with 5,000 units changing hands ended at a 52 weeks’ high of $11.01 to record a gain of 40 cents and Trinidad Cement traded 45,492 shares and gained 49 cents to end at $4.
Losses| Sagicor Financial Corporation closed with 6,267 shares 
changing hands with a fall of 8 cents at $6.72.
Firm Trades| Clico Investments traded 48,887 shares valued at $1,099,996 to close at $22.51, JMMB Group traded 131,656 shares at 60 cents, National Commercial Bank traded 41,479 shares to close at $2.40, Point Lisas ended with 4,830 shares trading, to close at $4. Sagicor Financial Corporation 6.5% US$1 convertible redeemable preference traded 430 shares at US$1.10, Scotia Investments contributed 5,070 shares, to close at $1.80 and Trinidad and Tobago NGL closed at $19 with 3,300 units trading.
Mixed trading on Monday
The Jamaica Stock Exchange is undergoing mix fortunes in losses in the early morning session on Monday with the junior market stock index rising and majors falling. After 75 minutes of the market opening, 30 securities traded, accounting for only 717,672 shares changing hands. A total of only 3 stocks fell and 10 rose.
The all Jamaica Composite Index lost 128.70 points to 174,697.27, the JSE Market Index fell 115.16 points to 157,254.68, the JSE combined index gained 81.15 points to 166,137.37 and the junior market index rose 21 points to 1,977.28.
Caribbean Cement fell $4 with 36,000 shares to be at $26, after the company reported full year results to December last year with earnings of $1.82 after an exceptional charge and one off income. Carreras traded just 100 but gained $1.60 to $65.70, Gleaner Company traded 123,047 but fell 35 cents to $2.10.
Witco records $515.5m profit
Witco profit rose 5.4% in 2015
The company is recommending the approval of a final dividend of $2.18 per share at the Annual Meeting in April and said that when added to the interim dividends of $3.70, will result in a total dividend of $5.88 per share for 2015. If approved, the final dividend will be paid on 6 May 2016. Dividends paid based on the 2014 profit were $5.51.
The lack of meaningful growth in revenues and profit will mean a price increase is not far away but the recession in Trinidad and Tobago could see a delay in any price increase.
The stock traded at $126.30 on Friday giving it a PE of 20.6, with earnings per share for 2015 being $6.12.
Election results validate IC Insider report
IC Insider predicted the election outcome in the last general election in Trinidad and Tobago and this week’s Thursday election in Jamaica. In our posting on February 21, the report stated that an analysis of poll numbers since 2014 and the number of eligible voters suggest that Thursday’s general elections in Jamaica could result in a shocker and a major shift in parliament. For the People National Party to win the 2016 elections will require voter turn out to be more than 50 percent.
Jamaica Labour Party polled 436,459 votes or 50.13 percent of the votes cast and the People’s National Party 432,353 votes or 49.66 percent of the total of 870,663 votes just around 2,000 votes more than in 2011. The JLP polled 31,301 more votes than in 2011 while the PNP lost 31,927. Just under 48 percent of the electorate voted. The voter turnout although lower than in 2011 turnout as a percentage of voters list is consist with the level of the population that voted of 32 percent in both elections and better than the participation rate from 1993 to 2007.
IC Insider stated in the article ahead of the elections that “polls done from late 2014 puts the Labour party support consistently at 25 percent except for the temporary decline shown in the Don Anderson polls in January to 23.2 percent when political activity was low keyed. Based on error factors in past polls, the base for the JLP is around 28 percent which is consistent with polls done in 2015 that would give them 510,835 votes. This would be an increase of 105,677 over the 405,000 votes they received in 2011 and well over the 464,280 the PNP got then”.
“It is more difficult to say what the PNP numbers will work out at in the end but it should be at least close to their numbers for the last election. Added to this it is also difficult to see voter turnout of 53 percent in the 2011 being exceeded by much, if at all, which would put the PNP support at 25 percent of the electorate or a few thousand votes less than in 2011”.
“If the PNP does not increase their support by much, they will be relegated to the back benches of Parliament after Thursday’s polls. As it turned out the PNP based on preliminary results suffered a fall in the number of voters casting the ballot for them while the JLP increased theirs, but both parties failed to motivate persons who said they were going to vote to do so hence a fall in the level of participation”.
The results suggest one important factor and seems to explain why the turn out appear low even as the numbers are slightly higher than the tally for the 2011 elections. The elections seemed to have been focused around a third of the seats, maybe even less, some that were marginal and a few others that there was special interest in. Additionally, the infighting over candidates in some of the PNP’s constituencies may have had an overhang effect, thus negatively affecting its support.
Just 20,366 TTSE shares trade on Friday
Trading activity sank to a very low level on the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange on Friday, with a mere 20,366 shares valued at $336,803 trading. The market ended with 12 active securities of which, 3 rose gained, 3 fell and 6 remained unchanged, including 2 ending at 52 weeks’ highs and 2 at 52 weeks’ lows.
The Composite Index lost 1.87 points to close at 1,158.46, the All T&T Index fell 4.52 points to close at 1,896.48 and the Cross Listed Index gained 0.11 points to close at 55.63.
IC bid-offer Indicator| The Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator has turned negative with 6 stocks with bids higher than the last selling price and 10 with offers that were lower.
Gains| Sagicor Financial Corporation closed with 3,733 shares changing hands with a rise of 10 cents at a 52 weeks’ high of $6.80. Republic Financial Holdings rose 3 cents to close at $112.15, with 580 shares changing hands and Scotia Investments contributed 2,500 shares while gaining 6 cents, to close at a 52 weeks’ high of $1.80, the equivalent of J$33.90, but the stock traded at J$30 in Jamaica.
Losses| Clico Investments traded 7,685 shares to close at $22.51 with a loss of 4 cents, National Enterprises closed with 312 shares changing hands at $14.45 after losing 33 cents, to close at a 52 weeks’ low andScotiabank contributed only 323 shares while dropping 14 cents to close at a 52 weeks’ low of $59.75.
Firm Trades| First Citizens closed with 142 shares changing hands at $35, National Flour traded 1,000 shares to close at $1.80. Point Lisas ended with 170 shares trading, to close at $4, Trinidad and Tobago NGL closed at $19 with 1,518 units trading, Trinidad Cement traded 2,400 shares at $3.51 and West Indian Tobacco closed at $112.30 with 3 shares changing hands.
