PNP needs over 50% turnout to win

PortiaAn analysis of poll numbers since 2014 and the number of eligible voters suggest that Thursday’s general elections in Jamaica could result in a shocker and a major shift in parliament. For the People National Party to win the 2016 elections will require voter turn out to be more than 50 percent.
Polls done from late 2014 puts the Labour Party support consistently at 25 percent except for the temporary decline shown in the Don Anderson polls in January to 23.2 percent when political activity was low keyed. Based on error factors in past polls, the base for the JLP is around 28 percent which is consistent with polls done in 2015 that would give them 510,835 votes. This would be an increase of 105,677 over the 405,000 votes they received in 2011 and well over the 464,280 the PNP got then.
The increase for the Labour Party works out at an average of 1,682 votes per constituency and is likely to create a major change in the seat count. It is more difficult to say what the PNP numbers will work out at in the end but it should be at least close to their numbers for the last election. It is difficult to see voter turnout of 53 percent in the 2011 being exceeded by much if at all, which would put the PNP support at 25 percent of the electorate or a few thousand votes less than in 2011.
If the PNP does not increase their support by much, they will be relegated to the back benches of Parliament after Thursday’s polls.

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Comments

  1. Willard Alexander says

    100% correct!

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