Developments during the week for ICTOP10 Main Market stocks saw Sygnus Credit Investment adding another 5 percent to its value this past week on top of the 5 percent rise in the previous week to close at $18.65 from $17.80, to be up 17 percent for October. Sterling Investments rose 9 percent from $2.76 to $3 and Berger Paints gained 3 percent during the week. Caribbean Producers lost 2 percent, Guardian Holding fell 6 percent from $550 to $515 and Proven
Sygnus Credit Investments is up 17% in October.
Investments lost 7 percent to round out the main movements in ICTOP10 for the week. There were no additions to the ICTOP10 this week, but volatility continued, with Junior Market stocks bouncing up and down. Elite Diagnostic gained 3 percent to $3.10, Caribbean Assurance Brokers rallied 2 percent, from $1.75 to $1.79, Lumber Depot rose 2 percent to $2.89, with persistent selling above keeping a lid on price movement. Access Financial lost 7 percent to close at $17.25 from $18.50, AMG Packaging fell 7 percent to close at $1.80 from $1.93 after the company released full year results. Dolphin Cove dived 20 percent from $10.25 to $8.20, Medical Disposables with bright prospects for the future fell 10 percent to $4.74 and Stationery and Office Supplies slipped 2 percent to $6.40 from $6.50.
As 2021 slowly crawls to a close, the focus should be switching to 2022 along with the current year’s values to determine the appropriate valuation of each stock and the hold or fold decision.
Most of the top 2021 stocks will not make the top 10 in 2022. The IC 80/20 rule, with a long 40 year history, shows an average of only two of the top ten stocks in a year repeat in the following one, while 4 out of 10 of the worst performing stocks will end up as TOP 10 winners in the succeeding year. The top seven stocks so far, with gains of 52 to 231 percent and three others gaining more than 100 percent are; Future Energy, Jamaican Teas, Fosrich, ISP Finance, Lumber Depot, Express Catering and Honey Bun. In the Main market, Caribbean Producers is 136 percent to date and is expected to deliver much more gains into 2022, Salada Foods rose 107 percent, Radio Jamaica has an increase of 103 percent, but investors can expect much more from this one but a lot is expected after the release of the September quarter results, Caribbean Cement is scheduled to release third quarter results next weekend, with the stock price up 88 percent for the year to date and Grace up 55 percent.
Elsewhere, Supreme Ventures released nine months results with 22 percent increased sales to $19.3 billion for the nine months but virtually flat third quarter sales of $6.3 billion with nine months profit slipping marginally from $1.55 billion to $1.54 billion and the third quarter falling from $596 million down to $311 million. Earnings per share ended at 57.7 cents and 11.8 cents for the quarter. AMG Packaging released full year results, with profits of $62.6 million, up from $56 million in 2020 with earnings per share of 12 cents. The quarterly profit was $20 after tax and, in 2020, $18.4 million after a tax credit. Construction of the new facility is complete, and machinery and equipment are ordered and is expected to be installed during the November quarter.
The top three Main Market stocks are, Caribbean Producers currently consolidating around $7, but closed the week at $6.60, followed by Guardian Holdings and Berger Paints with expected gains of 238 to 264 percent versus last weeks’ 235 to 256 percent.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market are Elite Diagnostic, followed by Access Financial and Medical Disposables. All three have the potential to gain between 238 and 287 percent, from 220 percent and 300 percent previously.
The average gains projected for the TOP 10 Junior Market stocks moved from 200 percent last week to 213 percent and Main Market stocks remain at 173 percent.
The Junior Market closed the week with an average PE 13.2 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings and is currently well below the target of 20 and the historical average of 17 for the period to March this year, based on 2020 earnings. The TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of a mere 6.5, with a 52 percent discount to that market’s PE.
The overall Junior Market can gain 49 percent to March next year, based on an average PE of 20 and 29 percent based on an average PE of 17. Nine stocks representing 25 percent of all Junior Market stocks with positive earnings are trading at or above this level, up from five last week, indicating that many others will rise above the 17 mark in the weeks ahead.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market is 15.6, which is 22 percent less than the PE of 19 at the end of March and 28 percent below the target of 20 to March 2022. The Main Market TOP 10 average PE is 7.7, representing a 
50 percent discount to the market and well below the potential of 20. A total of 10 stocks or 22 percent of the market trade at or above a PE of 19, with most over 20, for an average PE of 25.5, suggesting that the accepted multiple maybe around 25 times the current year’s earnings.
The TOP10 is a selection of stocks that are most likely to deliver the largest gains within fifteen months. ICTOP10 focuses on potential yearly winners, accordingly, the list may or may not include the best companies in the market. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings to highlight winners from the rest, allowing investors to focus on potential winning stocks and helping to remove emotional attachments to stocks that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on the possible increase for each company, considering the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
Market activity led to 36 securities trading up from 32 on Friday and ended with 11 rising, 18 declining and seven unchanged.
At the close, Access Financial popped $2.45 to $19.70 with 3,000 shares clearing the market, Caribbean Assurance Brokers dropped 9 cents to $1.70 after exchanging 20,015 stock units, Caribbean Cream shed 20 cents to close at $5.90 after trading 142 stocks. Caribbean Flavours gained 5 cents to $1.94 while exchanging 51,037 units, Derrimon Trading advanced 8 cents to $2.40, with 254,993 shares crossing the exchange, Elite Diagnostic rose 19 cents to $3.29 after 21,243 stocks crossed the market. Express Catering lost 33 cents to $5 in an exchange of 78,275 units, Fontana increased 10 cents to $6.49 with 24,636 stock units changing hands, Fosrich spiked 20 cents in closing at $8.50 in trading 503,233 shares. GWest Corporation declined 12 cents to 83 cents in exchanging 59,347 units, Honey Bun fell 20 cents to $8.40 after exchanging 21,848 stock units, iCreate fell 6 cents to 97 cents with 2,692 stocks changing hands. Jamaican Teas climbed 6 cents to $4.45 in switching ownership of 254,158 stock units, KLE Group rallied 15 cents to $1.35 with an exchange of 53,319 stocks, Knutsford Express lost 85 cents at $7.20 with the swapping of 218 units.
Lasco Distributors dropped 30 cents to $3.60 after trading 6,065 shares, Mailpac Group declined 5 cents to close at $3.74 in exchanging 368,586 shares, Medical Disposables spiked 24 cents in closing at $4.98 while exchanging 2,500 units. Stationery and Office Supplies shed 30 cents in ending at $6.10 after trading 2,000 stocks, Tropical Battery gained 5 cents to end at $1.29, with 247,329 stock units crossing the market and tTech fell 45 cents to $4.25 crossing in trading 1,550 shares.
Market activity led to 32 securities trading compared to 35 on Thursday and ended with 14 rising, 12 declining and six, closing unchanged.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows five stocks ending with bids higher than their last selling prices and two with lower offers.
Knutsford Express lost 5 cents to end at $8.05 while exchanging 2,264 shares, Lasco Distributors popped 10 cents to $3.90 in exchanging 116,697 stock units, Main Event dipped 15 cents in ending at $3.88 with an exchange of 45,158 units. Stationery and Office Supplies rose 40 cents to $6.40 in exchanging 1,300 stocks and Tropical Battery declined 9 cents in closing at $1.24 after 107,202 shares changed hands.
Market activity led to 35 securities trading compared to 38 on Wednesday and ended with 14 rising, 13 declining and eight, closing unchanged.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows four stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and three with lower offers.
Lasco Manufacturing advanced 21 cents to $4.71 in switching ownership of 20,732 units, Mailpac Group popped 7 cents to $3.82, with 118,807 stock units crossing the market. Main Event shed 11 cents in ending at $4.03 with the swapping of 3,700 shares, Medical Disposables declined 26 cents to $4.74 in exchanging 131,266 stock units and Tropical Battery rose 9 cents to $1.33, with 27,345 units clearing the market.
At the close, the Junior Market Index slipped 10.08 points to settle at 3,279.34, after opening at 3,343.21. The PE Ratio, a measure used to compute appropriate stock values averages 13. The PE ratio of each stock is shown in the chart below, is based on earnings forecasted by ICInsider.com for companies whose financial year ends up to July 2022.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows five stocks ending with bids higher than their last selling prices and two with lower offers.
Fosrich climbed 10 cents to $8.20 in exchanging 950 units, Honey Bun fell 10 cents in closing at $8.60, with 620 shares crossing the market, Jamaican Teas rallied 8 cents to $4.38 with an exchange of 119,546 stocks. Lasco Distributors spiked 15 cents to end at $3.75 in trading 46,113 stock units, Lasco Financial declined 14 cents to close at $3.09, with 32,429 stocks changing hands, Main Event dropped 15 cents to $4.14 after exchanging 1,240 stock units. Stationery and Office Supplies shed 50 cents ending at $6 in trading 1,600 shares and tTech advanced 42 cents in closing at $4.67 after 3,090 units crossed the exchange.
Market activity led to 37 securities trading compared to 31 on Friday and ended with ten rising, 16 declining and 11 closing unchanged.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows one stock ended with a bid higher than the last selling price and five with lower offers.
Limners and Bards fell 11 cents to $3.51, with 213,465 shares clearing the market, Lumber Depot climbed 8 cents to end at $2.91 after exchanging 177,643 units. Main Event increased 29 cents, ending to $4.29, with 7,478 stocks crossing the market, Medical Disposables shed 25 cents to close at $5 in switching ownership of 55,000 shares and Tropical Battery lost 9 cents to end at $1.26, with 10,000 units clearing the market.
Caribbean Cream half year’s results saw a modest 5 percent increase in sales in the second quarter, well below the first quarter increase of 28 percent, but cost rose above that of 2020, leaving a small profit of $7 million for the August quarter. The company’s management attributed the performance primarily to the no-movement days in operation during the quarter that curtailed sales. Knutsford Express returned to profit in the quarter of $9.2 million, from a loss in 2020 for the August quarter on improved revenues of $233 million from $122 million in 2020 but well off the $325 million in 2019. Paramount Trading had marginal movement in revenues for the August quarter of $369 million from $362 million in 2020, with a profit of $19 million versus $15 million in 2020.
The 80/20 rule of trading stocks should be ever present as the long 40 year history of the local market shows that only two out of each of the top ten stocks in a year repeat in the following while 4 out of 10 of the worst performing stocks end up as winners in the succeeding year. The lesson is that many of the top stocks for 2021 will not make it in 2022.
The top three Main Market stocks are 
The average gains projected for the TOP 10 Junior Market stocks moved from 210 percent to 200 percent and Main Market stocks from 170 percent to 173 percent.
ICTOP10 is not intended to select the best stocks in the market but ones that are most likely to be the largest winners within a fifteen month period. ICInsider.com ranks stocks to highlight the winners from the rest, allowing investors to focus on potential winners, helping to remove emotional attachments to stocks that often result in costly mistakes.
September closed with an average of 207,032 units at $668,264.
Knutsford Express fell 60 cents to $7.50 while exchanging 2,330 units. Lasco Financial popped 6 cents to end at $3.24 while trading 76,488 units, Limners and Bards climbed 12 cents to $3.62, with 64,746 stock units crossing the market, Mailpac Group declined 9 cents to close at $3.76 trading 186,639 stocks. Main Event rallied 24 cents to $4 after trading 520 shares and tTech dipped 53 cents to $4.25 with an exchange of 3,629 stocks.
At the close, the Junior Market Index dipped 0.29 points to settle at 3,305.34 after market activity led to trading in 36 securities down from 38 on Wednesday and ending, with 14 rising, 12 declining and 10 closing unchanged.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows three stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and one with a lower offer.
Knutsford Express declined 10 cents to end at $8.10 in trading 503 units, Lasco Manufacturing dipped 10 cents to $4.60 with 5,361 shares changing hands, Lumber Depot lost 12 cents in closing at $2.85 trading 1,545,090 stock units. Main Event popped 11 cents to $3.76 in switching ownership of 600 stocks and Stationery and Office Supplies climbed 50 cents to end at $6.50 trading 10,000 units.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows five stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and four with lower offers.
Jamaican Teas advanced 5 cents to $4.05 in trading 202,484 stock units, KLE Group climbed 11 cents to $1.30, with 40,000 units changing hands, Lasco Manufacturing increased 16 cents to end at $4.70 in trading 18,613 stocks. Limners and Bards shed 15 cents to $3.52 with the swapping of 42,598 shares, Main Event declined 85 cents to close at $3.65 after trading 7,226 stock units and Medical Disposables spiked 43 cents to close at $5.24 while exchanging 18,600 stock units.
