Mailpac drops out of IC TOP15 stock listing

Stocks left to languish at depressed prices for months are coming back to life as some investors are now seeing the light of the huge potential profit in Junior Market stocks compared to their senior counter paths in the Main Market.
The Main Market slipped a bit to end the first half of January, with a modest loss but technical indicator points to it heading towards the 460,000 points level on the All Jamaica Composite Index, soon. The Junior Market is up 2.4 percent since the 2020 close and is a few points away from the level reached at the close of March 5 last year, having surpassed the April high, as the bullish golden cross takes full hold on the market to launch a big rally.
During this past week, IC TOP 15 selections MailPac, Caribbean Cream and Jamaican Teas all posted gains with Mailpac hitting a series of record highs this past week and closed at $3.75 up 30.6 percent since the end of 2020 and is now well outside of the 2021 Top 15 list for Junior Market stocks. The stocks still have much room for growth in the year to benefit from a strong increase in revenues. Caribbean Cream posted continued growth in sales for the November quarter and almost doubled profit for the nine months period and increased it by 37.5 percent for the third quarter. The stock gained 50 cents at the close on Friday but traded as high as $5 during the week and moved from fifth spot last week to ninth position on the 2020/21 TOP10 list. Jamaican Teas gained 25 percent since December and seems poised to move higher as interest in the stock grows since the announcement of a three for one stock split late last year. An indication of increased interest is the exchange of 4 million shares on Friday. The stock moved from the fourth position last week to seventh this past week as it gained 24 percent for the week.
Lasco Manufacturing rose in the past week and moved out of the TOP10 Junior Market ranks, with Honey Bun replacing it.
The current TOP 10 report is based on earnings for 2020/21 as there are substantial gains ahead, for many stocks in the listings.
Investors should be on the lookout for new quarterly results with Express Catering and Margaritavillle and should release results this week. Before the month ends, expect results from Caribbean Cement, QWI, NCB Financial, Barita and the three Lasco companies.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market with the potential to gain between 208 to 373 percent are Lasco Financial, followed by Caribbean Producers and Elite Diagnostic. With expected gains of 125 to 315 percent, the top three Main Market stocks are, Berger Paints followed by Grace Kennedy and Jamaica Broilers.
The local stock market’s targeted average PE ratio is 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, from now to the second quarter in 2021. The Junior and Main markets are currently trading well below the market average, indicating strong gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week, with an overall PE of 16.4 and the Junior Market 14.6, based on ICInsider.com’s projected 2020-21 earnings. The PE ratio for the Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 7.6 at just 52 percent of the market average. The Main Market TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of 9.2 or 56 percent of the PE of that market.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 185 percent and 130 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2020-21 earnings. IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2021 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely gain for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

Pulse top 2020 Jamaican stock with 243%

The Jamaica Stock Market has moved from the best performing in the world in 2018 to one of the worse performing in 2020. The fall from grace had to do far less with local factors but more so with global developments. Nevertheless, Main Market listed Pulse Investments came out on top in 2020 with gains of 243 percent, followed by former Junior Market listings, Epply in the second position with 227 percent and Key Insurance with 88 percent.
Even as the markets had their worse year since 2018, the past year ended with a number of stocks recording gains, up to 243 percent for top Main Market stocks and a much lower 36 percent for the best performing Junior Market stock. The Junior Market suffered badly, with ten stocks losing upwards of 39 percent out of a list of 33 stocks that declined for the year. The Junior Market was partially saved by two stocks, one that was listed in December 2019 and one listed in the last half of 2020. Mailpac was listed in December 2019 and rose 36 percent in 2020, followed by Tropical Battery by 28 percent as the two leading Junior Market winners. With tax losses as the only major asset of worth, Ciboney came in third and more than doubled with a rise of 118 percent. The Main Market had 32 stocks declining during the year, with losses going as high as 63 percent.
In 2020, both of the Jamaica Stock Exchange major markets were down, with the Junior Market just edging out the Main Market index with a lower decline of 21 percent versus 22.6 percent. Even though 2020 was not a great year, some investors made money by buying stocks at rock bottom prices when many investors were dumping earlier in the year.
The JSE Main Market fell 33 percent to a yearly low in March and the Junior Market by 37 percent. Since then, they have rebounded but not enough to take them out of the year’s negative territory.
Since bottoming in March, the Junior Market is up 30 percent and the Main Market 16.6 percent by the end of the year. There are strong signals pointing to an upward move for both markets as they transitioned from a consolidating phase when investors were assessing developments in the economy and the stock market to a more bullish state since the latter months of 2020.

Mailpac Q3 profit surges 129%

MailPac Group (MGL) continues to enjoy increasing strong profit growth despite the current pandemic, with revenue jumping 58 percent in the September quarter over the 2019 quarter and profit more than doubling.

Mailpac dominated trading on Thursday with 84% of the total volume of the market on Tuesday.

The company recorded net profit of $149 million for the quarter, a solid 129 percent jump from the $65 million the operation recorded for the September 2019 quarter. For the year-to-date, there was an even more sizeable growth of 150 percent, moving from $203 million in 2019 to $339 at the end of September 2020.
Revenues grew 58 percent over the September 2019 quarter, from $301 million to $477 million, and grew a stunning 30 percent over the June 2020 quarter with revenues of $366 million. For the year to September, revenues rose to $1.2 billion, 42 percent more than the $851 million recorded at the end of September 2019.
Gross profit rose to 50 percent from 44 percent in the June quarter but fell to 48 percent for the nine months compared to 52 percent in 2019.
Direct expenses jumped 57 percent from $150 million for the September 2019 quarter to $236 million for the September 2020 quarter and 15 percent over the June 2020 quarter. For the year to date, the expenses climbed by 52 percent from $410 million in 2019 to $623 million in 2020. Gross profit stood at $240 million for the quarter ending September 2020, up from $150 million in 2019 and $584 million for the year to date versus $442 million in 2019.
Administrative, selling and promotion expenses increased 22 percent over the second quarter and slipped two percent from the September 2019 quarterly figure of $86 million to $84 million. The Executive Chairman attributes the increase in expenses in the third quarter over the second quarter to its expanding operations, the partnership with PriceSmart presumably one such notable factor.
For the nine months to September, selling and promotion expenses amount to $30 million, up from $29 million in 2019, while administrative and general expenses dropped to $199 million, from $218 million in 2019. Overall, these expenses were down seven percent from $246 in 2019 to $228 million at the end of September 2020. The effect, operating profit, rose a strong 140 percent over the comparative quarter to $157 million from $65 million in 2019 and an 82 percent increase for the nine-month period, moving from $195 million to $356 million.
Finance costs rose for the quarter from $352,000 in 2019 to $11 million in 2020, while the nine months to September ended at $31 million from $3 million for 2019.

Mailpac CEO Khary Robinson.

Gross cash flow brought in $346 million but MGL recorded trade and other payables increase of $127 million, spent $12 million on the acquisition of fixed assets and paid $225 million in dividends to end with cash and equivalents of $309 million at the end of September. Shareholders’ equity stood at $467 million. Current assets ended the period at $369 million and Current liabilities at $185 million.
Earnings per share came out at 6 cents for the quarter and 14 cents to September. IC Insider.com is forecasting Mailpac will end the year at 20 cents per share for PE of 11 times earnings and they should go on to earn 33 cents in 2021.
At the IPO, the company projected a profit of $317 million in 2020, while IC Insider.com projected $356 and 14 cents per share. The nine months’ results are just below our full year’s forecast.
The stock is priced below the average of the Junior Market of 12 and offers strong upside potential. The strong current growth continues the trend since 2017, when revenues grew 12.2 percent, 25.7 percent in 2018 and 28.8 percent for the first half of 2019. The company offers a convenient way to shop and far less costly than traditional ways. Listing on the stock exchange provides greater credibility that augurs well for increased business. MGL provides clients with physical addresses in Miami, Florida, where they can receive all goods purchased are flown to Jamaica. The company clears all goods and delivers them to the customers at their homes or for collection.
On the negative side, the main asset owned is the brand and technology that drives the business. Other entities could break into the market and squeeze profit margin longer term.
Coming off a robust third quarter, MGL is entering what is normally the busiest time of the year for the company that should continue the solid growth experienced in 2020 so far.
The stock currently trades at $2.13 on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange. The company paid an interim dividend of 5 cents per share in July 2020 and 5 cents per share in October and more is expected, with the company promising at the time of the IPO that the Directors intend to pursue a dividend policy that projects an annual dividend of up to 75 percent of net profits available for distribution.

The top profit performers for 2020

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Its earnings season for Jamaican stocks and usually most companies would have posted first-quarter results already. The Jamaica Stock Exchange has permitted companies to publish results later, due to the Coronavirus outbreak and the disruption caused to businesses.

Caribbean Flavours Derrimon’s subsidiary

Some results have been lower than for last year’s first quarter, but a number of them have posted robust increases. Outstanding results published last week were led by Grace Kennedy with a 50.6 percent spike in profit before tax, to $1.99 billion for the March quarter, while profit after tax attributable to shareholders of the group rose an impressive 47 percent, to $1.32 billion. tTech’s profit for the March quarter climbed 5,375 percent from $758,000 to $4.15 million as revenues rose a healthy 32 percent. Revenues grew 33 percent to $149 million at Caribbean Flavours while profits before tax rose 31 percent to $19 million from $14.4 million, profit after tax rose 19 percent to $14.2 million. The first-quarter profit is 45 percent of the 2019 full-year results.
Revenues at 138 Student Living climbed 29 percent to $278 million for the February quarter and 71 percent to $734 million for the half-year, with profit ending at $87 million, for earnings per share (EPS) of 21 cents for the quarter, up from a loss of $68 million in 2019. Profit for the half-year to February was $270 million, with EPS of 65 cents, up from a loss of $67 million in 2019. Profit at Eppley jumped 541 percent over the 2019 outturn of just $6 million after-tax to $40 million, with EPS of 21 cents.

Kingston Wharves profit rose 22%.

Kingston Wharves results for the quarter ended in March rose two percent to $1.9 billion, over the corresponding period in 2019 while net profit attributable to shareholders increased 22 percent or $101 million over the prior year, to $554 million. Sterling Investments reported a profit of US$4.6 million, versus a loss of US$7.2 million in the March 2019 period as a significant swing around in exchange gains pushed earnings higher for the March 2020 period.
Prior to this past week, Barita Investments reported a 25 percent rise in March quarter profit and 96 percent increase in the half-year results, profit for the first quarter at Derrimon Trading rose 34 percent to 91.6 million from a 5.5 percent rise in sales revenues, a rise of $18 million in other revenue and a drop in finance cost from $58 million to $49 million. iCreate increased revenues by 106 percent to $24.5 million for the three months to March with net Profit of $1.25 million, up from a loss of $1.48 million made in 2019. Pulse Investments profit rose 136 percent for the March quarter profit and 121 percent for the, nine months to March, Seprod profit for the March quarter increased 103 percent and Mailpac Group reported 71 percent increase in first-quarter profit

Lousy 2019 for Junior Market stocks

Junior Market trades

Junior Market did not end 2019 with glory splashed all over it with the market for small and medium-size companies, gaining just 3.1 percent in 2019, down from 18.8 percent in 2018 and 24.3 percent in 2017.
While the premier stocks rose appreciably in 2019, stocks on the Junior Market faltered in its performance in 2019, with the price of only one stock listed on the market at the end of 2018 doubling in value in 2019 and another coming close, with a rise of 97 percent. The Junior Market that saw a half of its listings declining in the year had just four stocks gaining over 100 percent. Three new listings in the Junior Market occupied the top three positions.  Fontana, pharmacy operators, was the top performer and closed the year at $7.30 with a rise of 288 percent on the expectation that the new store at Waterloo Road that opened in the December quarter, will boost income and profit in the 2020 fiscal year. The second-best performer, the advertising and production company – Limners and Bards, was listed in summer and delivered a 200 percent increase for investors who bought the stock at the IPO stage. The recently listed MailPac Group, with gains of 111 percent from the IPO price of $1 took up the number three position.
Honey Bun fresh from the expansion of its bakery operations and a 20.4 percent growth in revenues in the September quarter and profit after tax rising 67 percent for the full 2019 fiscal year, doubled in price with a 103 percent increase. Elite Diagnostic is the sole Junior Market stock from the 2018 TOP 10 to remain in the TOP 10 in 2019. tTech 6th worse performer in 2018, made it to the 2019 Top 10 in the eight position. Jetcon Corporation, the number 9 worse performer and GWest Corporation at number 10 in 2018 again ended in the worse ten performing stocks in 2019, in fourth for GWest and 10th position for Jetcon.
One major reason for the divergence for the performances of the Main Market and the Junior Market is to be found it the valuation multiple for both markets.
While both markets close 2018, with PE ratios around 16 times 2018 earnings the market moved decidedly in different paths with Main Market stocks approaching PE ratio around 20 leaving the Junior Market at just over 14.

Gains fin the Junior Market peaked at 12.8% on August 14 and drifted down since.

Interest rates, in Jamaica, fell again in 2019, with Treasury bill rates that started the year at just over two percent falling to 1.5 percent by year-end. This single move would have encouraged institutional investors to switch focus from money market instruments to stocks. The stocks they would have gone into would be the more established Main Market stocks rather than Junior Market ones. Added to that factor, is the fact the with increased IPOs into the market many individual investors sold stocks to buy into the new issues, leaving less money available for previously listed stocks.

Lumber Depot set to leave IC TOP 10

Newly listed Lumber Depot traded for the first time after listing on Friday to close at $1.59, up 32.5 percent from the IPO issue price of $1.20. The stock remains in the TOP Junior Market listing at 6th position from third, last week, but may not be in it much longer.
 Honey Bun that jumped ship at the end of the prior week, returns to sit at 10th spot with the fall of tTech while the JSE Main Market welcomed back Stanley Motta to the TOP 10 at the expense of NCB Financial.
IC Insider.com has upgraded the target PE ratios to 25 with several stocks trading at that around 22 currently. The average projected gains for the IC TOP 10 stocks are 187 percent for Junior Market stocks and 145 percent for JSE Main market Top 10 companies.
The top three Junior Market stocks are Medical Disposables with projected gains of 252 percent, followed by Main Event with a potential appreciation of 246 percent and Jamaican Teas with 233 percent.
Radio Jamaica holds the lead of Main Market stocks with projected gains of 238 percent, followed by Carreras in the number two spot with projected growth of 168 percent and Pulse Investments with likely increases of 167 percent is next.
The JSE Main Market closed the week, with an overall PE of 20.8 and the Junior Market at 14.9, based on current year’s earnings. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks averages 9.1 with the Main Market PE at 10.4.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at a discount of 39 percent of the average for Junior Market stocks and Main Market stocks trade at a discount of 50 percent to the overall market.
IC TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns to March next year. Projected earnings, along with the PE ratio for each company’s current fiscal year, are used in determining potential gains with the likely gains ranked in descending order with highest-ranked being the most attractive. Future values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.

This report is compiled by persons who may have an interest in the securities commented on.

MailPac drops out of IC TOP 10

Newly listed MailPac Group more than doubled in price, trading as high as $2.60 but closed the week at $2.22 and dropped out of the TOP Junior Market listing.
IC Insider.com has upgraded the average targeted PE to March 2020 based on the valuation of more than 22 times earnings, that the market has placed on several stocks currently.
 Honey Bun also jumped ship after posting strong growth with full-year results showing profit rising 67 percent to hit $157 million from a 17 percent rise in revenues to $1.54 billion. The stock closed at $8, up from $7 last week, but traded at a record high of $9.20 on Friday. Honey Bun entered the TOP 10 in the first week in October at $6.15 and left with a gain of 30 percent, but it still has more gains ahead of it. tTech price fell to $5.35 and re-entered the TOP 10 along with Caribbean Flavours, with its price dropping from $17.90 last week to close at $15.64 to return to the TOP 10.  PanJam Investment moved into the JSE Main Market Top 10 at the expense of Stanley Motta.
The past week was generally good for stocks as the JSE Main Market rose 4,691 points and the Junior Market climbed 89 points. The Junior Market movement was partially helped by the steep rise in the price of MailPac, from the IPO price of $1. Importantly, the Junior Market has made a sharp break out of a downward sloping channel that started after the market peaked in Mid-August. It now seems to be heading higher, with a healthy break out of the channel.
IC Insider.com has upgraded the target PE ratios to 25 with several stocks trading at that around 22 currently. The average projected gains for the IC TOP 10 stocks are 187 percent for Junior Market stocks and 145 percent for JSE Main market Top 10 shares.
Medical Disposables lead the top three Junior Market stocks with projected gains of 257 percent, followed by Main Event with potential profits of 246 percent and Lumber Depot with 233 percent.
 Radio Jamaica is the lead stock with projected gains of 247 percent, followed by Pulse Investments in the number two spot with a projected growth of 164 percent and Carreras with a likely increase of 111percent is next.
The JSE Main Market closed the week, with an overall PE of 21.5 and the Junior Market at 14.6, an improvement over the previous week’s 14.2, based on current year’s earnings. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks averages 8.9 from 8.7 last week with the Main Market PE at 10.5.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at a discount of 39 percent to the average for Junior Market stocks and JSE Main Market stocks trade at a discount of 51 percent to the overall market.
IC TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns to March next year. Projected earnings, along with the PE ratio for each company’s current fiscal year, are used in determining potential gains with the likely gains ranked in descending order with highest-ranked being the most attractive. Possible values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.

This report is compiled by persons who may have an interest in the securities commented on.

MailPac set to jump

MailPac shares were listed on Wednesday and closed at $1.32 for a rise of 32 percent, with less than 49,373 units traded.
The most recent information has the highest buying price at $1.72 for 305,000 shares, followed by 73,247 shares at $1.70 a lot of 26,388 units at $1.51 and 300,001 units at $1.50. At $1.49, there is buying for 60,357 units and at $140 to buy 4.37 million.
Selling starts at $1.35 with 24,092 shares, followed by 21,227 units at $1.44 and 21,227 at $1.45, with a total of 82 offers posted so far.
Trading in the early trading session on Thursday resulted in just 56,620 units changing hands at $2.10 at a PE ratio of 15. The maximum price that it can trade at for the day is $2.18. With the price movement to date, the stock has moved out of the IC Insider.com TOP 10 list.

Continued stability for IC TOP 10

With the closing of the two initial public offers of MailPac Group and Lumber Depot last week, things started to return to more normally in the market this past week with the two main markets recording net gains for the week.
At the close of a week when the JSE Main Market put on125 points and the Junior Market rose 46 points there was minimal change to the IC TOP 10 list this week with just one change as Fontana returns to the top flight after a brief absence, replacing Caribbean Flavours with the price jumping to $17.90 on Friday. One important development at the end of the week was the release of full-year results, for Honey Bun, with profit rising 67 percent to hit $157 million from a 17 percent rise in revenues to $1.54 billion. Importantly, the company is on the way to earn 70 cents per share for 2020.
The average gains for the IC TOP 10 stocks are 136 percent for Junior Market stocks and 96 percent for JSE Main market Top 10 stocks.
The top three Junior Market stocks, is now led by Main Event with projected gains of 183 percent, followed by MailPac Group with 180 percent and Medical Disposables with potential gains of 167 percent.
Radio Jamaica remains the lead stock with projected gains of 186 percent, followed by Pulse Investments in the number two spot with projected growth of 138 and Berger Paints with likely gains of 120 percent and percent is next.
The JSE Main Market closed the week with the overall PE of 19 up from 18.8 and the Junior Market at 14.2, an improvement over the previous week’s 13.8, based on current year’s earnings. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks averages 18.7 from 7.8 last week with the Main Market PE at 10.6 up from 10.4.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at a discount of 39 percent to the average for Junior Market stocks and main market stocks trade at a discount of 44 percent to the overall market.
IC TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns to March next year. Projected earnings, along with the PE ratio for each company’s current fiscal year, are used in determining potential gains with the likely gains ranked in descending order with highest-ranked being the most attractive. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.

This report is compiled by persons who may have an interest in the securities commented on.

Greater stability for IC TOP 10

NCB Financial is back in IC TOP10

The past week saw the initial public offers for Mailpac Group and Lumber Depot coming to the market with both being fully subscribed.
There were just two changes to the IC TOP 10 list of stocks at the end of the week. NCB Financial makes it back into the TOP 10 at the expense of JMMB Group that rose in price to $46 while the Junior Market TOP 10 welcomed Dolphin Cove while saying goodbye to Fontana.
The top three Junior Market stocks, is now led by CAC 2000 with projected gains of 200 percent, followed by MailPac Group with 180 percent and Main Event, with potential gains of 179 percent.
Radio Jamaica remains the lead stock with projected gains of 170 percent, followed by Pulse Investments in the number two spot with projected growth of 127 and Berger Paints with likely gains of 116 percent and percent is next.
The main market, closed the week with the overall PE of 18.8 and the Junior Market at 13.8, based on the current year’s earnings. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks averages 7.8 with the main market PE at 10.4.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at a discount of 43 percent to the average for Junior Market stocks and main market stocks trade at a discount of 45 percent to the overall market.
IC TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns to March next year. Projected earnings, along with the PE ratio for each company’s current fiscal year are used in determining potential gains with the likely gains ranked in descending order with highest-ranked being the most attractive. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.

This report is compiled by persons who may have an interest in the securities commented on.