The Main Market enjoyed big gains this past week with a wide gap between its best and worst performers with financial and investment-related names dominated the market.
The financial services stocks with standout performances include Barita Investments, Mayberry Group, Sagicor Real Estate X Fund, Sagicor Select Funds, First Rock Real Estate, Scotia Group, QWI Investments, Sygnus Real Estate Finance and VM Investments, all among the biggest movers, which points to increased interest in that part of the market.
ICInsider.com projects Berger Paints Jamaica as the top Main Market performer over the next twelve months, with a forecast gain of 655 percent. Margaritaville (Turks) follows at 572 percent, then Sygnus Investments at 485 percent and JMMB Group at 446 percent. QWI Investments is projected to gain 371 percent, Jamaica Broilers Group 367 percent, and 138 Student Living Jamaica 269 percent. The Palace Amusement Company is forecast at 264 percent, Lasco Distributors at 206 percent, and General Accident Insurance at 186 percent.
Comparing the ICTOP10 forecast with this week’s trading presents a mixed picture. QWI Investments is the only forecast name that also appeared among this week’s winners. Recent momentum supports its outlook. Four forecast names were among the week’s losers. Berger Paints Jamaica fell 7.67 percent, JMMB Group dropped 11.81 percent, Palace Amusement Company declined by 6.78 percent, and General Accident Insurance 18.89 percent.
If ICInsider.com’s projections hold, the week’s weakness would look like a pullback rather than a change of trend. The remaining five forecast names did not appear on either movers list.
At the close of the past week, Pulse Investments led all gainers with a surge of 81.25 percent. VM Investments was second spot, up 21.95 percent, followed by Scotia Group at 20.6 percent and follows the decision of the parent company to lift the offer price for the minority holdings to $75 per share. Sagicor Real Estate X Fund advanced 17.65 percent and Barita Investments rose 16.33 percent. Sagicor Select Funds gained 16.22 percent, GraceKennedy climbed 14.11 percent, the highest point in more than a year and QWI Investments rose 13.33 percent, with the net asset value at the end the September quarter at $1.45 up from $1.29 in the previous year, Supreme Ventures increased 10.59 percent and Mayberry Group rounded out the top ten with a gain of 9.62 percent.
On the downside, A.S. Bryden was the weakest performer, declining by 22.13 percent. General Accident Insurance declined 18.89 percent and First Rock Real Estate lost 15.06 percent. JMMB Group shed 11.81 percent, and Sygnus Real Estate Finance slipped by 7.97 percent. Berger Paints eased 7.67 percent, Palace Amusement fell 6.78 percent, Sterling Investments declined 6.63 percent. Jamaica Producers shed 5.59 percent and Transjamaican Highway lost 5.54 percent.
Comparing the forecast with the past week’s trading gives a mixed picture. QWI Investments is the only forecast name that also appeared among this week’s winners, so recent momentum supports its outlook. Four forecast names were among the week’s losers. Berger Paints Jamaica fell 7.67 percent, JMMB Group dropped 11.81 percent, Palace Amusement declined 6.78 percent, and General Accident Insurance 18.89 percent.
Other than the b moves in the TOP10, the market got some good news this past week. For one Jamaica Broilers reported positive full year results that were helped by a $2.3 billion one off gain, excluding those gains normal profits would have been in the order of $4.80 when taxes relating to the capital gains are excluded. The other positive news is that the Bank of Jamaica will officially start to ease the tight monetary policy pursued over the past three years. In reality, they commenced easing in early May, with CD rates falling from 11.59 percent in early April to mostly under 10 percent during June.
JMMB Group was the star performer in the Main Market TOP10, climbing 13 percent to $25.10 and Berger Paints was up 6 percent in closing at $8.52. Declining stocks are 138 Student Living and Pulse Investments dipping 6 percent to $3.86 and $1.50 respectively and Guardian Holdings dropped 4 percent to close at $345.
In the Junior Market IC TOP10 are 14 stocks, or 30 percent of the market, with PEs ranging from 15 to 53, averaging 21, well above the market’s average. The average PE for the top half of the market is 18, possibly the lowest fair value measure for stocks currently.
In market activity during the week, the Junior Market ICTOP10 had no stock with a price movement of note, with the highest movement being 4 percent, as Jamaican Teas fell 4 percent to close at $2.40. The Main Market, Margaritaville rose 8 percent to $16.79. Scotia Group dropped 8 percent to $41.50 and Palace Amusement lost 7 percent to close at $1.02.
In the Main Market ICTOP 10, a total of 16 of the most highly valued stocks representing 31 percent of the Main Market are priced at a PE of 15 to 106, with an average of 31 and 22 excluding the highest PE ratios, and a PE of 24 for the top half and 18 excluding the stocks with overweight values.
ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
Price movements in the market resulted in two new ICTOP10 listings for the Junior Market and one for the Main Market. In the Junior Market, Dolphin Cove rose 6 percent to $16.50 and AMG Packaging rose 4 percent to $2.44 after trading at a 52 weeks’ low of $1.95 during the week. Paramount Trading dropped 12 percent to $1.48, followed by Everything Fresh shedding 11 percent to $1.56, Iron Rock Insurance fell 9 percent to $2 and Caribbean Assurance Brokers declined 8 percent to end at $2.85.
Importantly selling in the stock has been drastically reduced with just 19 offers up to $15.90 amounting to less than 200,000 shares and 19 bids above $4, with the highest bid amounting to more than the total stocks being offered. Earnings per share for Lasco Financial were reduced to 15 cents for the year and holds the 31st spot on the list.
The PE of the Junior Market TOP10 sits at 5.7, just over half of the market, with an average of 11.9. There are 11 stocks, or 23 percent of the market, with PEs from 15 to 48, averaging 21 that are well above the market’s average. The top half of the market has an average PE of 17, possibly the lowest fair value for Junior Market stocks currently, with the market projected to rise by 260 percent on or around May 2024.
Note that Margaritaville is listed on both the Main Market and the USD Market, with similar values.
The markets are not in a bullish state, but there continue to be cases of slow upward movements in some prices as investors respond to some recent attractive results, leading them to quietly nibble away at a number of stocks, gradually reducing the supply of a number of them that are attractively priced. The list includes stocks such as Access Financial, AMG Packaging, Everything Fresh, Dolphin Cove, Caribbean Cream, Caribbean Assurance Brokers, Lasco Distributors and Lasco Manufacturing, Main Event and Transjamaican Highway.