Jamaica’s unemployment rate drops to 13.6 percent in March compared to March last year, according to data released by the Statistical institute of Jamaica (STATIN), but the rate is worse than it was in December last year.
The unemployment rate in December was 13.4 percent according to Statin data for that period. There were 1,133,000 employed persons in March this year, which was 25,700 more than the 1,107,300 recorded in April 2013, the Statin labour report said, the March 2014 numbers are only a marginally better than the 1,130,500 persons employed in December last yea.
According to the Statin data, the country’s labour force in March was 1.311 billion persons down from 1.322 billion in Match 2013 as 11,300 persons exited the work force over the one year period, the report stated. At the same time 25,700 persons found work across a wide cross section of the work force. The number of persons classified as outside the Labour Force was 769,900 In March 2014 and an increase of 16,200 over 2013.
Who got jobs?|The Occupation group ‘Elementary Occupations’ increased by 18,200 persons or 12.8 percent, moving from 141,700 in April 2013 to 159,900 in March and the group, ‘Professionals, Senior Officials and Technicians’, increased from 241,900 persons in March 2013 to 251,700 persons (4.1 percent). The group ‘Craft and Related Trades Workers’ had the largest decline for the period, moving from 139,300 in March 2013 to 134,700 in 2014, resulting in a decline of 4,600 (3.3 percent) persons.
The number of persons employed in the ‘Hotels & Restaurants Services’ increased by 9,100 (13.4 percent) persons while the group ‘Transport, Storage and Communication’ increased by 7,300 (10.5 percent) persons.
Little change in employed in March
Argentina’s recent debt default -consequencies
The government of Argentina has defaulted its public debt – yet again. It is bound to have unfavourable consequences for the people of Argentina, who are likely to see their currency lose value, and many will lose their jobs.
“The current political situation in Argentina is also looking positive: Mrs. Kirchner’s, the country’s president’s popularity is at an all-time low, she can’t be re-elected, and doesn’t have the power to nominate her successor” Steve Rosberg, an Argentinian resident stated. Rosberg goes on to state that “as a result, and as a reaction of her leftist rhetoric and the current crisis, the four most probable candidates – those who have real chances of being elected – are all market friendly, and of a centre to centre-right inclination. They are all likely to make the necessary reforms to get out of this default, and to pursue foreign investment. We believe they don’t really have a choice, except in a matter of degrees. It has been a slow and painful decade with the Kirchners, who are leaving the country pretty much in the same condition they found it in 2003. Now, like then, there will be great opportunities to invest in Argentina”.
Jamaican dollar gains versus US & Canadian
In Tuesday’s forex trading, buying and selling volumes were more closely matched with funds bought by dealers being slightly above the amounts sold. Dealers bought just over US$13 million in all currencies than they sold.
On Tuesday, dealers bought the equivalent of $25,710,419 versus US$47,763,088 on Monday and sold the equivalent of US$24,985,551 compared to US$34,622,132 on Monday.
In US dollar trading, dealers bought US$23,198,261compared to US$42,021,074 on Monday as the buying rate for the US dollar, slipped 6 cents to $112.08 and sold US$22,007,235 versus US$31,275,581 on Monday, as the rate eased 7 cents to $112.63.
The Canadian dollar buying rate rose 13 cents, to $102.93 with dealers buying C$852,194 and selling C$750,104 as the rate fell 9 cents, to $105.21.
The Pound closed at $189.29, for the purchase of £962,129 down 93 cents, while only £896,565 was sold, with the rate climbing by 40 cents, to $192.68. Other currencies bought, amounted to the equivalent of US$104,562 while selling was the equivalent of US$992,469.
Highs & Lows| All the highs and lows at the end of trading that moved declined. The highest rate for buying the US dollar, closed with a loss of 10 cents at $113.10, the lowest buying rate and the highest selling rate remained unchanged at $91.85 and $117.70 respectively, while the lowest selling rate dropped back by 16 cents cents to $91.85.
The highest buying rate for the Canadian dollar declined by 30 cents, to $105.05 and the lowest buying rate and the highest selling rate and the lowest selling rate were unchanged at $83.21, $107.21 and $100.25 respectively.The highest buying rate for the British Pound, fell 30 cents to $193.30, while the lowest buying and selling rates were unchanged at $153.88 and $185.40 respectively, the highest selling rate fell $3.36 to $195.66.
Phillips & Wynter kill inflation in Jamaica
Many Jamaicans may be feeling the negative effect of the economic pressures the country is undergoing. One area in which it is seen, is the official data on inflation as the overall measure of consumer price movements, went virtually nowhere, in June.
Inflation in Jamaica is set to hit the lowest level, in years if the trend for the first six months of the year continues. According to data put out by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, the inflation rate for June is 0.1 percent, when compared to the index for May 2014. This is 0.9 percentage points lower, than the 1.0 percent recorded for May this year. The lower movement was mainly due, to a decline in the cost of electricity which resulted in the index for the group ‘Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ moving down by 4.2 percent. This fall was tempered by an increase of 3.6 percent, due to an increase in the cost of water. Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages rose by 0.6 percent. Upward movement in the prices of ‘Meat, ‘Milk, Cheese and Eggs’ and ‘Bread and Cereals’ were the chief contributors.
The movement in the index for June 2014 resulted in a calendar year- to-date inflation rate of 2.5 percent.
Mean quarterly inflation rate for the second quarter of 2014 was 1.1 percent, 0.3 percentage points lower than the first quarter which had an inflation rate of 1.4 percent.
Jamaica remittances grow but lag region
Remittances into Jamaica continue to grow as the international economy continues to recover from the depression suffered since 2008. Jamaica’s increase of 4.4 percent for the first three months of 2014, is one of the lowest in the region of countries with large remittance inflows. Mexico is up 13 percent, El Salvador 8 percent and Guatemala 9 percent. Most likely, exchange instability affected Jamaica’s numbers negatively.
Net remittances, increased by US$11 million to US$172 million for March 2014, or 6.7 percent over March last year. Gross inflows were US$188 million, an increase of US$9 million. Net remittances for the three months to March amounted to US$461 million, an increase of US$30 million or 6.9 percent. For the three months, total remittance inflows were US$514 million, an increase of US$22 million or 4.4 percent.
Inflows were higher in each of the three months for the year, so far. Total remittance outflows declined in the quarter versus 2013, from US$61 down to US$53. The USA accounted for 61 percent of inflows and the UK 16 percent, in the quarter.
Big improvement in balance of payments
There is a major improvement in Jamaica’s Current Account deficit for the March 2014 quarter, according to a report out of Bank of Jamaica. Lower imports partially offset by lower exports and improved service inflows led to an improvement of US$301 million the deficit of US$401 million in the March 2013 quarter, resulting in a deficit of US$101 million.
“The outturn for the 2014 first quarter is the second lowest current account deficit recorded since 2007” the country’s central bank states. The improvement in the Goods Account was due to a significant decline in imports which was partially offset by decline in exports. The decline in Imports of US$281 million was primarily driven by a US$172 million and a US$133 million decline in chemicals and mineral fuels imports, respectively. The decrease in exports was primarily attributable to a US$86 million and a US$31 million decrease in chemical and crude material exports, respectively, partially offset by an increase in the exports of manufactured goods of US$21 million.
An increase of US$31 million to US$270 million in the balance on the Services sub-account resulted primarily from improvements in transportation and travel services of US$33 million and US$18 million, respectively. The improvement in transportation resulted from reduced freight costs associated with the reduced imports, while the increases in travel receipts occurred due to a 3.3 in visitor arrivals.
Businesses more optimistic
Perception of in the most recent survey done in May of this year showed improvement in present business conditions by the business sector, compared to the previous survey done in April. The Bank of Jamaica commissioned survey, shows the index moving from 95.8 in April to 102.5 in May. The results are well off the 158 achieved in December 2011 or 135 reached in March 2013.
Expectations about future business conditions, however, were largely unchanged. Of note, both indices remained below the levels recorded in Fiscal year 2011/12, nonetheless, the perceptions of present and future business conditions have displayed a general upward trend since the April 2013 survey.
Statin confirms 1.6% growth in Q1
The Jamaican economy grew by 1.6 percent in the first quarter of this year over the similar 2013 period but it is lower than the growth in the December quarter and only just moves the country ahead of where it was in 2012 as the latest growth figure places the country at 0.50 percent ahead of the first quarter of 2012. This is the third straight quarter that the economy is said to have grown. Statin previously confirmed that the Jamaican economy grew 1.8 percent in last year’s fourth quarter, 0.5 percent in the third quarter of 2013 when compared to the similar quarter of 2012 versus a decline of 0.1 per cent in the second quarter and declined by 1.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2013.
In contributing the overall growth in 2014, Goods producing industries grew by 5.5 percent and Services industries by 0.3 percent. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing grew by 17.7 percent, Mining & Quarrying 8.5 percent and Construction 1.2 percent. Manufacture declined by 1.2 percent.
“Higher output levels in Construction was impacted largely by continued expansion in hotels and increased spending on work under the Jamaica Development Infrastructure programme”, Statin stated.
“Higher output was recorded for all industries within the Service sector with the exception of the Government Services which declined by 0.2 percent. Higher output was recorded for Transport, Storage & Communication (0.7 percent), Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities (0.6 percent), Electricity & Water Supply (0.5 percent), Other Services (0.4 percent), Hotels & Restaurants and Finance & Insurance Services (0.2 percent) and Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery & Equipment grew by (0.1 percent)”, the report stated.