Devaluation of the local currency since the start of 2013 that should be helping move exports upwards had no visible impact on overall exports of goods in the first quarter of this year compared with 2013, it however, could be impacting imports somewhat as imports have fallen partially as a result. Jamaica imported US$1.412 billion </a>of goods down from US$1.647 billion imported in the January to March quarter last year, representing a reduction of US$235 million or 14.3 percent.
Exports on the other hand came in at US$358 million, down from US$469 million in the 2013 quarter. The decrease in exports was US$111 million or 23.6 percent and is due mainly to a fall in Alumina exports which fell from US$236 million in the comparable 2013 period to US$105 million this year. The merchandise trade deficit for the quarter ended at US$1.054 billion compared to US$1.178 billion in the similar quarter of 2013. The information was released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica today.
Imports| Non-fuel imports during March 2014 quarter declined by US$176 million or 16 percent versus 2013 ending at US$907 million, down from US1.08 billion in the 2013 period. Mineral Fuels, declined by US$59 million or 10.5 percent. Imports of Raw Materials/Intermediate Goods decreased from US$1.11 billion in the 2013 review period to US$863 million in the 2014 review period.
Traditional exports fell by US$37 million to US$168 million in the 2014, down from US$205 million in the 2013 period, a decrease of or 18 percent of this Agricultural commodities fell by US$2.5 million or 35.0 percent and were valued at US$4.6 million. The decline in earnings from “Coffee” exports which fell to US$3 million was the main contributor to this decrease.
Mining and Quarrying was valued at US$135 million, a decrease of 20.1 percent, moving from US$169 million in the 2013 review period.. “Manufacture” recorded a 2 percent decline and was valued at US$28 million compared to the US$28.5 million recorded for the similar January to march 2013 period. Non-traditional domestic exports during January to March 2014 were valued at US$177 million.
Imports drop, exports drop
T-bill rates drop sharply
The average rate for the 90 day Treasury bill instrument came out at 7.66 percent at today’s auction, down sharply from the May auction which came out at an average of 8.2 percent as Government sought to raise $400 million for this time frame but the auction saw $851 million chasing after the amount available. The 180 day instrument which averaged 8.932 percent in May plummeted to 8.365 percent as $877 million chased after the $400 million available.
Also on offer was a 30 day instrument to raise $400 million which provided an average rate of 6.797 percent as $534,303,700 chased after the $400 million that was available. The previous 30 day Treasury bill issued cleared at an average rate of 6.99 percent, in May this year.
Inflation jumps 1% in May
Inflation jumps 1 percent in May, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) stated in a release today, compared to the index for April. An increase of 0.7 percent in ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ and 3.6 percent increase in the index for the division ’Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other Fuels’ were the major reasons for the sharp climb. The movement in the index for May 2014 resulted in a calendar year-to-date inflation rate of 2.4 percent. Inflation declined in April by 0.7 percent compared to March this year.
According to Statin, the division ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ was impacted by increases of 1.9 percent and 1.6 percent in ‘Bread and Cereals’ and ‘Milk, Cheese and Eggs’ respectively. There were declines of 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent for the classes ‘Fruit’ and ‘Vegetables and Starchy Foods’ respectively. Within the division ‘Housing Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ the advance in the index for ‘Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ of 7.3 percent was moderated by the fall of 3.4 percent in the index for ‘Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to Dwelling’
The other divisions that recorded increases in the All Jamaica ‘All Divisions’ index were: ‘Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco’ 0.5 percent, ‘Clothing and Footwear’ 0.2 percent, ‘Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance’ 0.5 percent, ‘Health’ 0.2 percent, ‘Transport’ 0.4 percent, ‘Recreation and Culture’ 0.1 percent, ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ 0.5 percent, and ‘Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ 0.5 percent.
Net International Reserves Down
Jamaica’s inflation falls
A fall in the price of electricity lead to a 0.3 percent drop in the inflation rate for April this year, according to data released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, on the Consumer Price Index. Statin says “this was the lowest inflation rate recorded since July 2012, when the rate fell by 0.3 percent”.
This decrease was as a result of a decline in electricity rate, represented by a fall of 7.5 percent in the index for the group ‘Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ but was moderated by the 4.0 percent increase in the index for the group ‘Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling’ as a result of a the rise in water and sewage rates for the period. The division, ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ recorded an increase of 0.3 percent.
The calendar year-to-date inflation rate for April 2014 was 1.4 percent, the point-to-point 7.6 percent. The other divisions that recorded increases in the All Jamaica ‘All Divisions’ index were: ‘Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco’ 0.2 percent, ‘Clothing and Footwear’ 0.1 percent, ‘Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance’ 0.3 percent, ‘Health’ 0.5 percent, ‘Transport’ 0.4 percent, ‘Recreation and Culture’ 0.3 percent, ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ 0.4 percent, and ‘Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ 0.2 percent.
GOJ revenues up in April
Image courtesy of cooldesign/FreeDigitalPhotos.net
The GOJ enjoyed slightly higher revenues in the first month of the fiscal year with total inflows of $24.7 billion versus $24.4 billion budgeted.
The increase came from non-tax revenues. Expenditure was slightly less than planned and came in at $33.9 billion only $31 million less than budget, resulting in an reduced fiscal deficit than originally projected coming in at $9.16 billion compared to $9.53 billion budgeted.
The government however, borrowed $1.4 billion less that they projected to borrow in the month.
Imports down to February
Imports are down for the first two months of 2014 and was valued at US$884 million compared to US$1,117.4 million, a decrease of 20.9 per cent or US$233.3 million when compared to the same period in 2013” the Statistical Institute of Jamaica reported recently.
The figures are in line with imports in the first month of the year as imports fell sharply by 20.8 percent or US$115.7 million to US$442 million compared to US$558 million in January last year due mainly to reduced imports of fuel and chemicals but exports for January were also down sharply, declining by 25.3 percent or US$39 million to US$115 million, resulting in shrinking of the trade deficit by US$77 million or 19 percent to US$327.3 million when compared to US$404.2 million in the corresponding 2013 period.
J$ records gains
Trading levels on the forex market on Wednesday were in line with Tuesday’s trading as dealers bought the equivalent of US$31,964,036 compared to US$31,967,960 on Tuesday and sold the equivalent of US$32,324,584 versus US$32,689,906. Trading activity lead to the local currency gaining ground against the US dollar, it was mixed against the Canadian dollar and the Pound Sterling.
In US dollar trading dealers bought US$27,124,675 compared to US$26,541,282 on Tuesday as the buying rate for the US dollar fell 7 cents to $110.63 and sold US$29,947,593 versus US$28,962,746 on Tuesday with the rate closing 2 cents lower at $111.28.
The Canadian dollar buying rate rising 15 cents to end at $100.69 with dealers buying C$2,299,846 and selling C$960,758 with the rate declining by 13 cents to end at $101.80.
The Pound closed at $183.35 for the purchase of £1,512,515 with the rate rose by 66 cents while £765,366 was sold with the rate declining by 61 cents to $186.26.
Other currencies bought amounted to the equivalent of US$221,150 while selling accounted for the equivalent of $217,387.
Highs & Lows| The highest buying rate for the US dollar fell 10 cents to $111.55 but the lowest buying, highest selling rates remained unchanged at $90.18 and $115.56 respectively but the lowest selling increased by $18.42 to $108.60.
The highest buying rate for the Canadian dollar fell by 35 cents at $102.20, the lowest buying rates lost 17 cents to $80.30 but the highest selling rate fell a cent to $104 and lowest selling rate was down by 20 cents to $96.75.
The highest buying rate for the Pound gained $1 to $188 while the lowest buying rate was up just 4 cents to $148.40. The highest selling rate dropped by $1.49 to $189.77 while the lowest rose by 5 cents to $178.80.
Remittance growth continues
Net remittances rose US$11 million or 7.8 percent in February this year over the similar period in 2013, ending at US$152 million. The growth in net remittance inflows reflected an increase in inflows and a contraction of outflows.
Gross inflows for the month amounted to US$168 million, an increase of US$8 million or 5.1 percent versus the corresponding month of 2013. The rise in total remittance inflows emanated from an increase of US$11 million in inflows through Remittance Companies. The increase in these flows was partly offset by a reduction of US$2.4 million in inflows from Other Remittances.
Net remittances for the two months to February this year was US$290 million, an increase of US$19 million or 7.0 per cent relative to 2013 and emanates from an increase in gross remittance inflows and a contraction in outflows.
For the review period, total remittance inflows amounted to US$327 million, an increase of US$12 million or 3.9 percent.
Better fiscal out turn to February
The Government of Jamaica bettered the fiscal out turn to February by $2.9 billion compared to the budgeted target. The improved performance was the result of revenues for the 11 months declining by $18 billion versus the budgeted amount of $354 billion and expenditure was down as well by $20.9 billion.
For the year to date, revenues are 12 percent ahead of 2013 fiscal year out turn of $336 million. With the March figures to be reported in April, revenues for the full year should increase to end in line with the growth to date and be around $385 billion compared with $344 billion at the end of March last year, assuming no major unexpected inflows.
The results to date, along with the March inflows and with the target of a primary surplus of 7.5 percent for the fiscal year, should result in the fiscal out turn ending in surplus for the first time in many years. At the end of February, the primary surplus was at $78 billion or $34 billion below the target of $111 billion set at the start of the fiscal year. Achieving this target would result in a surplus of $10 billion.
On the surface there will be concerns that revenues for February at $31.3 billion are lower than for 2013 at $31.5 billion in spite of the increased levy of new taxes at the start of the fiscal year. The apparent poor performance in February this year is due to a big intake of $6.4 billion in withholding taxes on interest, while the 2013 figures include just $2 billion. But for this big one-off inflow, the 2013 revenues would be up 7 percent. Tax revenues are up by $27 billion or 10 percent for the eleven month period with the exclusion of withholding tax on interest.
Related posts | Ministry confirms deficit wipe out | Fiscal deficit improvement continues
